~* Breaking *~ - Commanders trade for Deebo Samuel

[Commander Wraith]

We will likely still be in the position of signing enough FAs next year that a comp pick probably wouldn't be in the cards. That said, if Peters continues to prove his ability to buy low on players and then let them walk when they get expensive..... that's the old Patriots model that proved highly effective, I'd be ecstatic.

Who knows how it plays out, but I just wanna point out (as I’m sure you know), the compensatory pick formula is not about the number of FAs, it’s more about the size of the contract (along with some other factors I believe).

To your second point, that buy low/sell high model (whether via trade or letting guys hit FA and therefore accruing some comp picks here and there) would be great. I expect the 1 year deals to continue - some for aging vets who can still make an impact, but also some prove-it type deals for younger guys (like Chinn).

 

[Discobob]

Who knows how it plays out, but I just wanna point out (as I’m sure you know), the compensatory pick formula is not about the number of FAs, it’s more about the size of the contract (along with some other factors I believe).

To your second point, that buy low/sell high model (whether via trade or letting guys hit FA and therefore accruing some comp picks here and there) would be great. I expect the 1 year deals to continue - some for aging vets who can still make an impact, but also some prove-it type deals for younger guys (like Chinn).

For the compensatory picks - I don't believe they publish the exact formula, but it seems like folks have generally been able to back into the calculation. You're correct that contract value plays a role, but I think (hedging my bets on this statement ) you can't be considered for a compensatory pick if unless you lose a greater number of FAs than you sign. Assuming you jump that hurdle, then the contract value determines what round the pick is from.

 

[mistertim]

Not necessarily a bad thing though. He balls out and signs a big deal somewhere we could end up with a 3rd round comp pick out of it. That would be brilliant. Swap a 5th for a 3rd and get a good year out of Deebo is a best case scenario.

If he balls out and is playing great, why would we want a compensatory 3rd round pick vs. keeping a top notch WR? I mean, sure, if he wants a top 3 WR contract then that's a bit different. But if he's looking for around top 10 to top 15 money why not?

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

I know we only have a one year sample size, but Peters seems to like rolling the dice on prove-it deals. He didn't renegotiate Lattimore and signed a ton of one-year deal last offseason. I think I like playing it that way. Yes, it does increase risk, but it also saves you from the situation we had with McNabb where we traded for him, immediately upgraded him, and then cut him the next year anyway.

It's not just that, it fills a gap - you field a team, hopefully really competitive, with no noose around your neck; flexibility. Now you can build a perennial contender in the draft, piece by piece.
Until you reach a certain state, where you have "enough" drafted players to rotate, you need MORE 1-year deals. After you reach that "steady-state" you need less 1-year deals, but you still may need/want one or two for flexibility. Beyond those two pieces which are probably the lynchpins of planning (DRAFT + 1-year FA deals), then you have your last tier. Longer-term FA deals. Proceed with caution, fill out pieces of strict need and confident return.

So in this reasoning ^^^^, Deebo is likely a 1-year guy who they let walk after this year if they don't reach a good mutual understanding. The risk of this strategy, of course, is year-to-year, you incur a lot of motion in players, playbook familiarity is lower among the rotating players, you can't plan as nicely as coaches. Absolutely.

As always, it's a balance and there is no perfect plan, but I think philosophically 1-year FA deals can be really useful in building a team that has been torn to shreds by a wild drunken riverboat.

 

[clskinsfan]

If he balls out and is playing great, why would we want a compensatory 3rd round pick vs. keeping a top notch WR? I mean, sure, if he wants a top 3 WR contract then that's a bit different. But if he's looking for around top 10 to top 15 money why not?

Because imo he is a stop gap one year player for us. We need to move young guys up and let older players walk at some point. That is how you build a dynasty.

 

[SilentThreat]

Someone on the radio said yesterday, "it's like getting the hot girl to agree to go out with you, but the only thing you're on the hook for paying for is happy hour."

If he flames out, we're out a 5th and $17M. Not exactly pennies, but also not debilitating in the least.

If he plays 'ok' but is not worth a long term look... still not too shabby

If he balls out and leaves, 3rd round comp pick potentially returning

If he ball out and you want to pay him... you do it.

Low risk, high reward IMHO.

Collectively everyone not named Terry McLaurin had a stat line of:

138 Rec - 1505 Yd - 7 Td
6 car - 36 Yd - 0 TD


This was led by OZ who was: 45 Rec - 506 Yd - 3 TD.

They collectively had a salary of $9,031,000

Deebo in 2024 (a down year, in 15 games)

51 Rec - 670Yd (13.1 avg) - 3 TD
42 car - 136yd - 1 TD

Statisitcallty it's not a massive upgrade, but the front office, and coaching staff are quickly creating a track record of players that were once at the top of the league, getting rejuvinated and once again being effective.

Zach Ertz
Bobby Wagner
Austin Ekeler
Dante Fowler
Jeremy Chinn


All guys that were coming off 'downward' trends or seasons, who were very effective here.

 

[Commander Wraith]

For the compensatory picks - I don't believe they publish the exact formula, but it seems like folks have generally been able to back into the calculation. You're correct that contract value plays a role, but I think (hedging my bets on this statement ) you can't be considered for a compensatory pick if unless you lose a greater number of FAs than you sign. Assuming you jump that hurdle, then the contract value determines what round the pick is from.

You’re sort of right - you have to have lost a greater number of compensatory free agents (not total FAs) - defined as players ranked in the top 35% of all players. And then those players are ranked according to the APY of the contract, then adjusted with other factors (post-season awards, etc).
In other words, if we sign a guy of a comparable market value to Samuel (if he were to walk next year), then we lose the chance to get a comp pick for him.

 

[mistertim]

Because imo he is a stop gap one year player for us. We need to move young guys up and let older players walk at some point. That is how you build a dynasty.

But how do we know he's a stop gap? Sure, it would be great to have a young WR who ends up a stud, but who is that for us? Deebo just turned 29 so it's not like he's some washed up mid 30s receiver. He's actually younger than Terry is, but we're not going to be getting rid of Terry. As long as he's not looking to get top 3 WR money, I don't see why we wouldn't give Deebo a pretty good 3 year deal if he balls out.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I think that's the beauty of this, if he doesn't come in hungry he wont get paid going forward, if he wants to get a big final contract either by us or any other team he will have to have a good year.

I think the beauty of this is if it fails misserably we're out a 5th round pick and some of Harris' money. While I like Harris, I don't care about his money.

If it does work, we're out of a 5th round pick and some of Harris' money (which I still don't care about) and we get a difference making WR.

You can't achieve greatness if you're scared to take a risk.

Attack success.

(also, make sure Deebo stays away from McDonald's)

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Someone on the radio said yesterday, "it's like getting the hot girl to agree to go out with you, but the only thing you're on the hook for paying for is happy hour."

I'm pretty sure (thought not 100% sure) this was JP Finlay and I heard it on the Washington Football Pod with Mitch T. He might have said it on the radio also.

I heard it. But I listen to Galdi, Washington Football Pod, Keim, Bram's show via podcast and Standig regularly. And sometimes I get them all mashed up in my head.

It was either JP or MAYBE Bram? But I think it was JP.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

But how do we know he's a stop gap? Sure, it would be great to have a young WR who ends up a stud, but who is that for us? Deebo just turned 29 so it's not like he's some washed up mid 30s receiver. He's actually younger than Terry is, but we're not going to be getting rid of Terry. As long as he's not looking to get top 3 WR money, I don't see why we wouldn't give Deebo a pretty good 3 year deal if he balls out.

I think the world is Deebo's oyster (though I hope he doesn't eat too many oysters. I kid. I kid.)

Best case, he balls out, they could extend him either in-season or at the end of the season.

Worst case, he is looking for another 1 year prove-it deal at 30 years old with another team. He'll find work. But not a top-end contract.

It is in his best interest to come in in great shape and do everything he can to produce big time.

 

[DCSkinz2023]

One year deals are a great way to stay competitive while you cycle new talent in. We're now getting opportunities at higher end place holders, it's a good thing.

The dude did have 12 TDs 2 years ago.

 

[HTTR]

If he ball out and you want to pay him... you do it.

This part isn’t so simple. At that point he’s a free agent and we’d have to bid for him. Will probably take three or four years at a higher salary with a lot of guaranteed money. Doubt we will want to do that for a 30 year old so basically he’s gone. If he’s willing and we can lock him in now for an extra year or two, it’ll be a lot cheaper and more team friendly in terms of guaranteed money. Worth at least considering IMO. It’s a little more risk, but @voice of reason just said it… you can’t achieve greatness if you don’t take a risk.

 

[SilentThreat]

This part isn’t so simple. At that point he’s a free agent and we’d have to bid for him. Will probably take three or four years at a higher salary with a lot of guaranteed money. Doubt we will want to do that for a 30 year old so basically he’s gone. If he’s willing and we can lock him in now for an extra year or two, it’ll be a lot cheaper and more team friendly in terms of guaranteed money. Worth at least considering IMO. It’s a little more risk, but @voice of reason just said it… you can’t achieve greatness if you don’t take a risk.

hence the option directly above that one...


"if he balls out and leaves..."

"wanting" to do it also means you 'want' to pay market value..

 

[HTTR]

hence the option directly above that one...


"if he balls out and leaves..."

"wanting" to do it also means you 'want' to pay market value..

Well, you can’t count on that comp pick, it’ll be canceled out when we sign a FA of our own

 

[SilentThreat]

If he balls out and leaves, 3rd round comp pick potentially returning

hence the 'potentially'

If he plays well enough to cost himself out of where we would want to pay him, it likely means he's getting a pretty large deal.


I never said any of it was guaranteed... it's just that the risk is not as big as some want to make it out to be.

 

[mistertim]

I say if Deebo balls out, give him a good 2-3 year deal. That way we give JD as many weapons as possible while we can take advantage of his rookie contract window Assuming JD's trajectory stays the same, he's going to get the biggest contract in NFL history and it will be more difficult after that to surround him with top tier FA signings.

 

[Riggo44]

Even in a down year, he had the fifth most YAC than any other WR

 

[Chris]

 

[burgold]

Watching those highlights you realize how many QBs Deebo has had. Not as many as Terry, but I counted Garrapolo, Lance, Purdy, and I think there was at least one more.