I do find it odd when teams trade only draft picks this far from the draft. You don’t know who is available at that spot to move up or down. Trading a player for picks, sure. Moving that much before a single player has been picked is just odd to me.
I understand what you mean, but part of the reason it makes sense is in your post. You don't know what you don't know. Draft day will often be too late to make those moves, so here are things you CAN know up-front:
- you can have an idea of where big "pockets" of guys you target are going to fall. In other words, let's say you think a guy may go in the 5th, but it's possible he goes in the 4th or falls to the 6th. Or, you think a guy may go in the 3rd, but you think it's also possible he drops to the 5th.
^ when you set up your board, you can make sure you have a decent number of picks within those general areas if that is true.
^ even without that level of detail, if you have a rough idea of the talent level in a particular draft divided into "draft days" - you can say that there is a certain value in moving up without having an absolute picture on what it's going to get you. You just know that you leapfrogged over certain teams (again, a knowable thing; which teams you leapfrog and maybe how they compare to you in need).
It is a very fluid situation though, so things get dicey when you dive too deeply and assume too much. The best thing to do in my opinion is stay "macro" and look at a slightly higher level. That is where you can have real predictive value with highly chaotic larger systems; only at the macro level.