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QB or not QB

Om

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We have new ownership. Still the single most momentous development for Washington football in a couple decades.

We have a real GM. First time in 25 years we're "doing it right." For the record, no, Vinny C. and Bruce A. didn't rate "real."

We have a Head Coach. Guy with some skins on the wall (see what I did there), but true value TBD.

We have a Offensive and Defensive Coordinators. Lots to unpack, obviously, but we have time and dedicated threads.

QB or not QB, that is now the question.

* * *

Offering up this thread as the QB clearing house ... I'll be posting links to vids, draft analyses, mocks, etc. in this original post as we move forward. For right now though, even while we still add relevant position coaches, with the main brain trust in place we can more realistically begin to read the tea leaves about what kind of QB, and perhaps even which, we're likely to walk away from in April.
 
As we get into assessing the 'top' QBs in this draft class there will inevitably be more controversy. Those that love a particular kid will exaggerate his strengths and infallibility. Those that don't will focus on his supposed fatal flaws. There will often be no consensus.

But the inarguable truth is that the 'sure thing QB' is a unicorn. It doesn't exist. There are always questions and uncertainties, and as often as not, the spot at which QBs are drafted, and the level at which they actually perform in the NFL prove to be two completely different things. The 'consensus' even when there is one pre-draft is as wrong as often as it is right.

A lot of fans will make the argument not to draft a QB at #2 - because it is high risk and we might pick the wrong one.

But if you are the GM, you don't approach the draft with that mindset. Yes. Drafting a QB is high risk-high reward. But oh what a reward if you nail it. Other than finding a HC it is the single biggest factor in franchise success or failure, and sometimes it might be even more important than finding the right HC.

That's a lot of words to say one thing. Standing at the plate with the #2 pick in the NFL draft - you have to swing.

Some will argue 'build the team' and then find a QB. That sounds good but eventually you must find your QB - and can anyone argue that doing so when you will have almost every option at your disposal isn't the best time to do so?

The next argument is always 'unless they don't love any of these QBs' and that sounds true. Maybe it is sometimes. But again, back to the original fact - we don't know definitively which QBs will be special and which won't. We don't know, the scouts don't know, and Adam Peters won't know - not for sure. Would it prove to be a mistake if we swing and miss (as we did with RG3)? Yes. But it's dwarfed by the potential mistake of not taking a QB there and seeing someone we could've had turn into the next great thing.

I believe you have to swing, and swing early. That means standing pat at 2 and taking your best shot. The only possible alternative that would make sense to me is if we wanted to trade down somewhere in the top 10 because we feel certain Bo Nix (or we have some other QB not named Caleb or Drake rated as our top QB) will be available.

The wildcard in all this is Sam Howell. I doubt the incoming experts believe he's got a future as 'the guy', but we can't know that for sure.

That's where I'm at right now.
 
If we do not take a QB at number 2 (I've not heard of a LT worth that spot and Harrison, please no at number 2) we better trade back for a plethora of picks, if we could snag 3 legit starters from a trade back (might be wishful thinking) I think we might have to take it. Unless we go stupid nuts overpaying for FA O-lineman (here's looking at that albatross contract for Scherff Jax gave him) my fear is whoever is behind center is getting the bejeebies kicked out of him every week.
 
The most successful QBs in the NFL are rarely taken in the Top 2. Very rarely.

Statistically, I don't think you can make an argument that taking a QB in the Top 2 is good value.

I'd rather be San Francisco, with a better average talent level top to bottom, then pray the guy we pick turns out to be the next Mahomes, Brady, or Manning.
 
Since there is now a dedicated thread I am reposting this from a week ago, mainly for my own entertainment, so sue me.

I am not much for doing fan evaluations because, unlike many, I am not enamored with YouTube highlight video compilations. They can be, and often are, misleading propaganda exercises. It’s just too damn easy to make a flawed player look like a potential superstar.

Here is my evaluation of Jayden Daniels vs a top college opponent, and even this is only a one game one. So take it for what it’s worth-

Today I watched every offensive play by LSU vs Alabama from a couple of months ago. I held no preconceived notions about Jayden Daniels so I watched without bias except for having concerns about his frame within the style that he plays. I will admit to wanting to find out for myself what all the hubbub was about. I also don’t believe that this Alabama defense is on the same level as those to which I have been accustomed to previously watching.

Here is my evaluation, offered for free as always-

1. A clear one-read QB
2. Not particularly accurate (even to wide-open receivers)
3. Arm strength looks to be enough for the NFL (though I wouldn’t call it elite)
4. Tough kid (though he did get tossed around like a child on a couple of occasions and was knocked out of the game by a viscous Dallas Turner hit)
5. Runs like a deer (but deer don’t usual fare well versus vehicles in traffic)

Considering how far he has to go toward becoming a competent NFL passer and with the grave danger that professional defenses will administer when he runs, I would not be in favor of drafting him at all much less #2 overall.
 
You have to start with the assumption that the folks picking a QB at #2 know what they are doing. If they don't, it won't matter where (or if) we pick a QB. If our GM/Scouts (who apparently we haven't listened to in years) identify one of the top several QBs as the guy, you take him. If they decide it's not one of those guys but maybe a QB currently ranked 3rd - 5th, you trade down if possible and take him a little later in the 1st.

The statistics are corrupted when it comes to QBs at the top of the 1st round because teams picking there are desperate and frequently overdraft guys. They 'swing to swing'. I think it comes down to 'who is your guy' and where can you get him. It's all about the assessment 'is this QB the guy'. If your experts say he is, you grab him and you don't worry about statistics which have been skewed by teams who weren't sure QBs 'were the guy' but pulled the trigger with a top pick anyway.
 
No matter what QB is drafted or where, as soon as they lose a game or two the criticism is going to rain heavily down anyway so the team should select who they are 100% in on and let the chips fall where they may.
 
What an amazing crap shoot. I love it.

The very first thing I do walking into this situation is I dumpster dive into Sam's play. I break everything down and look at what we have in him based on what he was asked to do. Trust me, the phrase, I can fix that or I won't ask him to do that will play a big part in the direction they go.

That evaluation plus DQ's unique perspective being a DC who had to deal with Sam opens a grundle of options. An example of that could be if they grade out the players in the draft and Alt, for instance, grades at a level none of them have ever seen before, do you fight for the next Trent Williams (just saying)? I mean, good Lord, the options that open up after just this first evaluation is bigger than the Multiverse. And none of it is guarenteed.

Talk about rolling your sleeves up and getting the energy drinks ready.
 
Okay Boone - in the second post of this thread you said at #2 "you have to swing" and now you are telling me that stats at the top of the draft are corrupted because of teams over-drafting out of desperation. In effect, teams taking the swing you are advocating for and not getting the desired result.

You know I love ya, brother, but I have to ask you which it is. :cool:

Out of the 14 teams in the playoffs this year, 5 of them had guys taken in the Top 2 of the draft, but only one of those guys is playing for the team that drafted him - CJ Stroud. Watson, Goff, and Stafford are all with their second NFL club, while Mayfield is with his 4th. That means 13 of 14 playoff teams either had to go outside the club to find a QB or drafted someone lower.

Last year it was 2 guys out of 14 - Lawrence and Burrow.
The year before it was 3 guys out of 14 - Lawrence, Borrow, and Murray.

Three years ago, the Detroit Lions traded their "late-in-his-career franchise" QB to the Rams. In return, the Lions got Goff (who, if we are honest, was considered a make-weight by most, thrown in by LA to clear his cap number) and the following drafted players - Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Josh Paschal, Brodric Martin, and Ifeatu Melifonwu. All of that out of picks the Rams sent them or that the Lions traded for using the picks the Rams sent them. We aren't even talking about the picks the Lions owned outright yet. With those picks, the Lions drafted Jack Campbell, Brian Branch, Hendon Hooker, and Aiden Hutchinson. The year before the trade, the Lions used their 1st round pick on Penei Sewell, OT out of Oregon and the guy watching Goff's blind side now.

If we believe in our new GM so much that we are willing to let him pick a QB at #2, imagine what this team might look like if we believe in him enough to let him trade that pick for more draft capital.

Just spit-balling, if Atlanta wanted to move up to #2 and were willing to part with #8 and #43 this year, and their 1st and 3rd rounders next year, that would give Washington 5 picks in the Top 100 in back-to-back years. We know we have a guy in Howell who can throw the ball right now. We may not know where his head is but we know he has the arm and we know he is a tough MFer. If not completely convinced, use one of those high second or third-round picks on a Penix, or Nix, or McCarthy.
 
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the problem if you look at the 49ers example is they gave up a boatload of picks for Trey Lance and then had to dump him on the open market for a #5 pick BUT they found a top 10-12 quarterback with the LAST pick in the entire draft :LOL:

so, I don't see that you can exactly follow their example unless you are convinced Adam Peters is going to be able to find a Tom Brady, Brock Purdy in the late rounds or a Russell Wilson or Joe Montana in the middle rounds.

CJ Stroud was taken at #2 last year and turned out to be one of the best rookie quarterbacks we have seen.

So, it's not the spot necessarily but the talent and the evaluation of that talent.

I don't think you can count on winning a Super Bowl any longer with a Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson or other quarterback simply not getting in the way of the defense and ensuring the offense doesn't turn the ball over in order to post a signature win in the Big Game.

The most recent Super Bowl winners had Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady as the starters.

That's one first ballot Hall of Famer and another headed soon who was a #1 draft pick.

The other, Stafford, was a #1/#1.
 
Okay Boone - in the second post of this thread you said at #2 "you have to swing" and now you are telling me that stats at the top of the draft are corrupted because of teams over-drafting out of desperation. In effect, teams taking the swing you are advocating for and not getting the desired result.

You know I love ya, brother, but I have to ask you which it is. :cool:

Out of the 14 teams in the playoffs this year, 5 of them had guys taken in the Top 2 of the draft, but only one of those guys is playing for the team that drafted him - CJ Stroud. Watson, Goff, and Stafford are all with their second NFL club, while Mayfield is with his 4th. That means 13 of 14 playoff teams either had to go outside the club to find a QB or drafted someone lower.

Last year it was 2 guys out of 14 - Lawrence and Burrow.
The year before it was 3 guys out of 14 - Lawrence, Borrow, and Murray.

Three years ago, the Detroit Lions traded their "late-in-his-career franchise" QB to the Rams. In return, the Lions got Goff (who, if we are honest, was considered a make-weight by most, thrown in by LA to clear his cap number) and the following drafted players - Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Josh Paschal, Brodric Martin, and Ifeatu Melifonwu. All of that out of picks the Rams sent them or that the Lions traded for using the picks the Rams sent them. We aren't even talking about the picks the Lions owned outright yet. With those picks, the Lions drafted Jack Campbell, Brian Branch, Hendon Hooker, and Aiden Hutchinson. The year before the trade, the Lions used their 1st round pick on Penei Sewell, OT out of Oregon and the guy watching Goff's blind side now.

If we believe in our new GM so much that we are willing to let him pick a QB at #2, imagine what this team might look like if we believe in him enough to let him trade that pick for more draft capital.

Just spit-balling, if Atlanta wanted to move up to #2 and were willing to part with #8 and #43 this year, and their 1st and 3rd rounders next year, that would give Washington 5 picks in the Top 100 in back-to-back years. We know we have a guy who can throw the ball right now. We may not know where his head is but we know he has the arm and we know he is a tough MFer. If not completely convinced, use one of those high second or third-round picks on a Penix, or Nix, or McCarthy.

I've said repeatedly that I am fine with whatever a new GM decides to do. But I'm also pretty confident they are going to 'swing' at a QB for all the reasons I've repeated 100 times. Yes - all teams 'swing' and far too often early in round 1 to find a QB. We supposedly just brought in the best GM candidate in the league. You don't execute a draft on the premise that he will fail and pick the wrong guy. He might. But you don't base your plan on it.

If we still have Ron Rivera making the call with the 2nd pick, or an owner who pressures his talent evaluators maybe I feel differently.

You cannot win in today's NFL without a bonafide starter at QB. We can talk all we want about Brock Purdy and rehabilitating Jared Goff, but I think those are outliers (and Goff had a good year but are we going to bet on him being the guy long-term? He's Jay Shroeder, capable of great play at times, but not someone you can likely rely on for the long haul). Most perenially successful teams find their franchise QB by drafting him. And most of those guys are found in round 1 of the NFL draft (whether there are a lot of busts mixed in or not).

I think we need to use our 1st pick (whether it's at #2 or later in round 1 if we like someone we can get there). We don't have a proven starter and we have to try and draft one.

I respect the 'build the team' and then find your QB argument. But it's like the old joke 'How do you turn $1 million into $5 million?'. First, get a million dollars...' You eventually have to find 'the guy' at QB and I think the most likely path to that is draft one early.
 
Ron Rivera would have probably passed on all of the quarterbacks but also Harrison and Alt and drafted a safety with the #2 pick.

For a guy whose first year in the NFL with Carolina coincided with taking Cam Newton #1 in the draft, he seemed awfully slow to realize the importance of the position later on in his career.
 
After listening to coach at the presser and with Kliff K bringing his 'list' for QB traits as everyone is on the same page as to the importance of the posiiton, our options at who is going to be picked with that spot or what it will take to move from it are going to be very clear. I think we can bet a good amount that this will be a very educated choice.

There....I don't think I actually said anything of importance. Lock that in.
 
Put it all on 23 black and spin the wheel? Hell it worked for the founder of FedEx ...my translation
 
If we trade down I hope it’s because the deal we receive is a can’t refuse offer AND we retain a pick to grab another qb in this draft without having to wait until the second or third round.
 
As we get into assessing the 'top' QBs in this draft class there will inevitably be more controversy. Those that love a particular kid will exaggerate his strengths and infallibility. Those that don't will focus on his supposed fatal flaws. There will often be no consensus.

But the inarguable truth is that the 'sure thing QB' is a unicorn. It doesn't exist. There are always questions and uncertainties, and as often as not, the spot at which QBs are drafted, and the level at which they actually perform in the NFL prove to be two completely different things. The 'consensus' even when there is one pre-draft is as wrong as often as it is right.

A lot of fans will make the argument not to draft a QB at #2 - because it is high risk and we might pick the wrong one.

But if you are the GM, you don't approach the draft with that mindset. Yes. Drafting a QB is high risk-high reward. But oh what a reward if you nail it. Other than finding a HC it is the single biggest factor in franchise success or failure, and sometimes it might be even more important than finding the right HC.

That's a lot of words to say one thing. Standing at the plate with the #2 pick in the NFL draft - you have to swing.

Some will argue 'build the team' and then find a QB. That sounds good but eventually you must find your QB - and can anyone argue that doing so when you will have almost every option at your disposal isn't the best time to do so?

The next argument is always 'unless they don't love any of these QBs' and that sounds true. Maybe it is sometimes. But again, back to the original fact - we don't know definitively which QBs will be special and which won't. We don't know, the scouts don't know, and Adam Peters won't know - not for sure. Would it prove to be a mistake if we swing and miss (as we did with RG3)? Yes. But it's dwarfed by the potential mistake of not taking a QB there and seeing someone we could've had turn into the next great thing.

I believe you have to swing, and swing early. That means standing pat at 2 and taking your best shot. The only possible alternative that would make sense to me is if we wanted to trade down somewhere in the top 10 because we feel certain Bo Nix (or we have some other QB not named Caleb or Drake rated as our top QB) will be available.

The wildcard in all this is Sam Howell. I doubt the incoming experts believe he's got a future as 'the guy', but we can't know that for sure.

That's where I'm at right now.
Nix should be available in the 2nd for us. That is what I want them to do. I don't feel anything great about the top 3 qbs . Take back to 5-7 get a Tackle and pick up another 1st for next year and a 2nd this year for number two
 
Trade back for picks, and run what we brung at QB. No, I'm not yelling for Howell, but there's too many other places we need to improve. We could feasabily rebuild both lines in one off season between the draft and free agency, and still have picks for other positions of need.
 
Trade back for picks, and run what we brung at QB. No, I'm not yelling for Howell, but there's too many other places we need to improve. We could feasabily rebuild both lines in one off season between the draft and free agency, and still have picks for other positions of need.
It’s great that we can have a friendly dialogue on this. Although I disagree and want Caleb or Drake, doesn’t mean I am right. Stick to your guns.
 
I think if you have the #2 pick in a draft with a qb class like this, and you don’t have a hof qb already, you must take a qb. Theoretically we not going to suck so bad we’re a top 5 pick going forward which means you won’t get this chance again without giving up a massive bag of picks. It would be dereliction of duty to not take a QB. You must take swings at QB when you get them.

You also need to run your team such that the best players play, and the coaches make the decisions. Draft status, contract, “face of the franchise”, and other things need to not matter.

If it doesn’t work out, fine. We’re trying to build a reputable franchise out of a dumpster fire, it’ll likely take time and there will be missteps. Be aggressive and go all out and if you make enough good decisions along the way it’ll work out one way or another.
 
Trade back for picks, and run what we brung at QB. No, I'm not yelling for Howell, but there's too many other places we need to improve. We could feasabily rebuild both lines in one off season between the draft and free agency, and still have picks for other positions of need.
You’ll also ride a cheap qb contract a bit longer which has to make a GM happy. Competent qb play for cheap is something 1/2 the league would jump for in an instant.
 

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