QB or not QB

[Voice_of_Reason]

Funny enough I take the same approach to gambling that I think we should in player acquisition.

The best professional gamblers have a hit rate of around 60-64%. Anyone telling you they’re that good or better, that isn’t a legit professional gambler (and well known to the books) is a liar.

Their whole strategy is to take as many swings at bets as possible (draft capital)
To have a process that means most of the time they win or lose small, but win just enough to be over 50% and come out ahead
And hope that once in a while you hit it big
And that when you miss big, your overall strategy allows you to recover

Roulette is my favorite table game. If you go to the table with enough money, and you understand the board enough to cover your bets, you can play for a long time wining and losing small, and if hit big more often than you miss big you can win some serious money.

I bet sports the same way … it works great. It’s not flashy but long term it’s a successful way to stay in the game, giving yourself as many chances as possible to hit big.

I wouldn't call myself a professional gambler in any way shape or form, but I spent A LOT, and I mean A LOT of time playing blackjack in Vegas. And what you said about Roulette essentially holds true for Blackjack.

If you use a progressive betting strategy, you can basically get yourself out of every hole. However, you need to have a lot of capital to do that. And most people don't. Nor do they have the discipline. Which is why there are topless pools in the middle of the desert.

The way I correlate the draft to gambling, is you have to have a plan and stick to it. From a blackjack perspective, you need to know how to play the system, where you can get CLOSE to 50/50 odds (though you won't get 50/50 odds in any game in Vegas), and you have to know your betting strategy. You can't get drunk or stupid. If you play "the right way" you can come out ahead unless you run into some atrocious luck. If you do stupid things, you will absolutely lose.

Same with the draft. You have to have a good plan, do all the scouting work, and make smart decisions. And some will hit, and some won't. If you do stupid stuff, you'll lose.

Sometimes the best GMs lose. Beathard traded a first, second and 2 legitimate players to move up one spot to draft Ryan Leaf. Ooops. Kyle Shanahan and Lynch traded up to get Trey Lance. Ooops. Wentz. Ooops. Trubisky. Ooops. Zach Wilson. Ooops.

But if you have a good process and make consistent decisions, you'll come out ahead.

One thing about the "build through the draft" thing though: We HAVE been building through the draft for about 8-10 years. The problem is we're picking the wrong guys. But we're trying to.

From last year's team, here are the starters who we didn't draft: Leno, Gates, Wylie, Logan Thomas on offense. Add Curtis Samuel as well as the third WR. That's it. On defense: Cody Barton. Kendall Fuller was a boomerang. That's it.

The issue isn't we have been trying to spend on FAs, we haven't. Last year Gates and Wylie were the only 2 notable FAs. In the Ron Rivera era, I think the only other large-ish FA signings were Samuel and WJIII.

We've been trying to build through the draft. But we just don't draft that well.

 

[Bulldog]

Ron Rivera, though, never tried to draft a quarterback in the first two rounds and push any of his chips to the middle of the table.

Whether he wasn't confident he could select a quarterback that high or believed signing veterans or trading for them would shorten the road to respectability - ie, finishing 9-8 or 10-7 and being a wildcard I don't know.

That old adage 'nothing ventured, nothing gained' was the epitaph for the Ron era here.

He finally admitted the 'quarterback problem' got him in the end.

 

[Utah]

Everything about the Rivera tenure with the coaching staff was just a cluster f**k. We at least know what not to do.

 

[Bulldog]

Yeah, I doubt Adam Peters spends all of those draft picks on one position (DL) and goes out and signs free agents like Nick Gates and Andrew Wylie who in my mind are 'replacement' level players, not guys you reach out to give multiyear contracts to.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Ron Rivera, though, never tried to draft a quarterback in the first two rounds and push any of his chips to the middle of the table.

Whether he wasn't confident he could select a quarterback that high or believed signing veterans or trading for them would shorten the road to respectability - ie, finishing 9-8 or 10-7 and being a wildcard I don't know.

That old adage 'nothing ventured, nothing gained' was the epitaph for the Ron era here.

He finally admitted the 'quarterback problem' got him in the end.

Yeah. Though there is some context to this:

2020: Without the benefit of hindsight, neither Tua nor Herbert was going to be the #2 pick, and Dan wanted Haskins to have a shot. Should they have traded back and picked a QB? Hindsight says yes. But Young was an AMAZING prospect at the time. The Bengals were not going to trade out of #1, so Burrow was off the table.
2021: They tried to trade up to get Fields, but couldn't. Should they have offered more? Maybe? Would that have worked out here better than Chicago? Probably not? Should they have moved up to get Mac Jones? Maybe? Though, it most likely would have failed.
2022: This was just a putrid QB class. The first QB taken was Pickett, who hasn't distinguished himself. After Pickett it was Ridder (who might be worse than Heinicke, who would be the worst starting QB in the NFL, so that's saying something), Malik Willis, Matt Corral and then Howell. Most of these guys haven't played.
2023: They weren't getting into the top 4 to get Bryce Young, Stroud or Richardson. The next guy taken was Will Levis. But we already had Will Levis on the team in the form of Sam Howell. And literally nobody knew Purdy was going to turn out to be good.

They did try, and thought they were going to get, Matt Stafford in 2021. But then the Rams offered Detroit something we couldn't: a competent NFL QB + 2 firsts.

I'm as big a critic of Ron's personnel moves as anybody. The issue was 2020. They could have done something in the first year. But after that, the opportunities in the draft were exceptionally limited. Ron got insanely unlucky the draft they REALLY needed to pick a QB in 2022 was just a horrid QB draft. It looked like a bad class and it's turned into a bad class.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Yeah, I doubt Adam Peters spends all of those draft picks on one position (DL) and goes out and signs free agents like Nick Gates and Andrew Wylie who in my mind are 'replacement' level players, not guys you reach out to give multiyear contracts to.

If he did that would be very disappointing to say the lest.

I'm personally in favor of an all offensive draft: QB in the first, OL with the next 3 picks, and then best available offensive player for the remainder of the draft. (that might be an exaggeration.)

But I am in favor of a very heavy offensive draft with specific emphasis on the OL.

 

[Bulldog]

Rivera still could have taken Young and found Hurts in Round 2 or moved back into the late first to get Love as Green Bay did.

See, when I hear a coach has full say and the system is going to be 'coach centric' I have my doubts on two counts:

1. The coach is not in total control and the owner has placed pre-conditions on his hire even if they say other to fans and the media.

2. The coach is a horrible talent evaluator and doesn't realize how teams should be set up to win in the 2020's because his experience from decades ago tells him he can win with Jeff Hostetler or Trent Dilfer at quarterback.

 

[tshile]

Buddy asked me while skiing this weekend what our needs are (he’s a born and raised Steelers fan)

I kind of laughed. I told him it didn’t really matter what positions we drafted, we needed to hit on almost all of them. Anyone that’s great a position can find a starting role here and help.

The only caveat is I don’t know how much coaching changes things. Terry’s last season was underwhelming and I don’t think it’s because he fell off. There are likely quite a few players that have been under utilized or not put in a position to be their best because of coaching.

 

[Utah]

Coaching will be the key. People want the most athletic, flashy guy to play because he is flashy and athletic. Fresh eyes will be great because they will put him in a position to be flashy and athletic, not hope he makes something great happen. The evaluation by the new staff will be answered by FA and then draft. Let the speculation begin....right?

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Rivera still could have taken Young and found Hurts in Round 2 or moved back into the late first to get Love as Green Bay did.

See, when I hear a coach has full say and the system is going to be 'coach centric' I have my doubts on two counts:

1. The coach is not in total control and the owner has placed pre-conditions on his hire even if they say other to fans and the media.

2. The coach is a horrible talent evaluator and doesn't realize how teams should be set up to win in the 2020's because his experience from decades ago tells him he can win with Jeff Hostetler or Trent Dilfer at quarterback.

Yeah, as I said, the time to do something was 2020. Which they didn't do.

The only other thing I will say about 2020 is because COVID wiped out the off-season, Ron couldn't even get to know Haskins a little bit before the draft. And that made things more difficult.

I'm not excusing Ron. He could have done a lot of things. He did none of them. I don't think he had urgency on QB in 2020, and I think that was a mistake.

2021 and after, I think his hands were more tied because of where they were picking and who was available. The best QB in the next 2 drafts they had a legitimate shot of getting was Fields. But that would have required going from 19 to 8. And there just wasn't anything to shoot at in 2022.

 

[Boone]

Yeah. Though there is some context to this:

2020: Without the benefit of hindsight, neither Tua nor Herbert was going to be the #2 pick, and Dan wanted Haskins to have a shot. Should they have traded back and picked a QB? Hindsight says yes. But Young was an AMAZING prospect at the time. The Bengals were not going to trade out of #1, so Burrow was off the table.
2021: They tried to trade up to get Fields, but couldn't. Should they have offered more? Maybe? Would that have worked out here better than Chicago? Probably not? Should they have moved up to get Mac Jones? Maybe? Though, it most likely would have failed.
2022: This was just a putrid QB class. The first QB taken was Pickett, who hasn't distinguished himself. After Pickett it was Ridder (who might be worse than Heinicke, who would be the worst starting QB in the NFL, so that's saying something), Malik Willis, Matt Corral and then Howell. Most of these guys haven't played.
2023: They weren't getting into the top 4 to get Bryce Young, Stroud or Richardson. The next guy taken was Will Levis. But we already had Will Levis on the team in the form of Sam Howell. And literally nobody knew Purdy was going to turn out to be good.

They did try, and thought they were going to get, Matt Stafford in 2021. But then the Rams offered Detroit something we couldn't: a competent NFL QB + 2 firsts.

I'm as big a critic of Ron's personnel moves as anybody. The issue was 2020. They could have done something in the first year. But after that, the opportunities in the draft were exceptionally limited. Ron got insanely unlucky the draft they REALLY needed to pick a QB in 2022 was just a horrid QB draft. It looked like a bad class and it's turned into a bad class.

All that's reasonable - except it violates my QB draft principle (strangely enough still not widely known by every NFL GM). If you don't have a certain franchise QB and you hold a high pick in the NFL draft - you swing like hell for one and you do it every time. No one in 2020 felt Dwayne Haskins was going to be a franchise QB. I would kill to know who our scouts WANTED us to pick, because it damn sure wasn't Dwayne Haskins.

You are absolutely right that conventional wisdom was that Young was the best player in that draft. But I still say, when you don't have a proven QB, you swing for one.

 

[tshile]

Yeah, I’m in total agreement on that qb philosophy. My only caveat is that a quality front office and coaching staff can get a lot out of competent QB play, which certainly expands your options before swinging at every qb you get the chance to.

But those situations are the exception to the rule.

I post all those competing ideas so down the road I have a wide range of posts to select from when telling everyone I was right from the jump

 

[MikefromOH]

His record alone last year and how he acted when he lost should tell you all you need to know. No way I'm wasting a #1 pick on anything less than a Peyton or similar caliber player mentally.

 

[tshile]

He’s also the first NIL #1 expected qb pick.

Never thought of this until I read your post, but I wonder what all the NIL at that level of college player does to what is a very young mind …

 

[MikefromOH]

And didn't he say he wants part ownership of any team that picks him?

 

[Neophyte]

And didn't he say he wants part ownership of any team that picks him?

That has been reported, but it won't happen in the NFL. There are rules.

 

[MikefromOH]

Oh, I know it won't happen. Sorry if I sounded different. I just think that's yet another reason not to want him.

 

[tomwvr]

The problem was not picking the wrong people in the draft the problem was the people making the picks.

 

[tomwvr]

Oh, I know it won't happen. Sorry if I sounded different. I just think that's yet another reason not to want him.

His Dad is heavily involved in all he does. He has a serious mental fortitude issue, doesn't win games when he should and has bust written all over him. I wouldn't touch him with a first round pick

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

All that's reasonable - except it violates my QB draft principle (strangely enough still not widely known by every NFL GM). If you don't have a certain franchise QB and you hold a high pick in the NFL draft - you swing like hell for one and you do it every time. No one in 2020 felt Dwayne Haskins was going to be a franchise QB. I would kill to know who our scouts WANTED us to pick, because it damn sure wasn't Dwayne Haskins.

You are absolutely right that conventional wisdom was that Young was the best player in that draft. But I still say, when you don't have a proven QB, you swing for one.

I don’t disagree but I also don’t think you panic and reach for one.

I also don’t think you could draft a QB at #2 and keep Haskins on the roster. You could go full Cardinals and pick (probably Tua) at 2, or after a sight trade down, and then trade Haskins.

Or I suppose they could have taken a shot at Hurts in the second.

Regardless. Context or not, they failed to find the QB and as a Hail Mary hopes a 5th round pick would be the savior.

That was bad.

As an interesting side note, there are going to be 2 veteran QBs who have played well in the league before available in FA. I wonder where they fall. Kirk and Russell Wilson.

Kirk is going to get 40M from someone to be a starter. I wonder if that’s Atlanta. Morris was here with Kirk in 2013.

Wilson is not. I wonder where he could land up on a 1 year, $10-12m backup/spot starter deal.