QB or not QB

[tshile]

I realize that seems contradictory but first I think it’s a good point, but second… it really doesn’t matter what they do, if they hit in the players they select.

If they draft a qb and hit on that pick the team will improve quickly and dramatically.

If they get a boat load of picks and hit on the vast majority of them, they’ll have Sam Howell with lots of new quality contributors and they’ll improve quickly as well (even if they get it over the top by ultimately bringing in a different qb down the road)

I’m less concerned on individual decisions and more waiting for the big picture signs of whether the decisions turn out to be good or not. There’s a ton of ways to build a quality team - it doesn’t matter which way you go if you’re right in the decisions along the way.

 

[Neophyte]

I've been up since 5 AM because I'm sick and couldn't sleep.

I've been watching a lot of media/pundits on Youtube talking about Washington's new coaches and what they need to do in the draft.

The number of people advocating for Washington to trade UP to get Williams is blowing my mind. The consensus out there seems to be that Washington will have to swap first-rounders this year and then give Chicago our 1st round picks in 2025 and 2026 - minimum.

If Peters does that, I might just quit. We tried that 10 years ago with RGIII and we are still recovering.

Do these guys not watch games? Can't they see that the talent cupboard is bare in Washington because of 5 straight years of poor drafting in the top rounds?

 

[Boone]

I believe the draft chart to move up from 2 to 1 calls for a single 2nd round pick (at most). Chicago can ask for anything they want and some team will pay it. It shouldn’t be us.

 

[Om]

At the risk of making you sicker ... while I don't care even a little what the "pundits" have to say about, I do care what Peters, Quinn & Kingsbury (the expensive if as-yet-unproven firm) have to say. I look at it this way---if they truly believe Williams is Patrick Mahomes and worth the price, I won't be upset. And I would hope you wouldn't quit at that point because what if they're right?

I'm not so sure our cupboard is as bare as you do; I think it's probably mid-tier and has been brutally coached and may surprise. Particularly with a generational talent at QB.

And for the record, no, sitting here today I don't think Williams is Him. But I'm also not a partner in P.Q. & K., so I don't have access to the files.

 

[Boone]

It matters less what P, Q, and K think and more what the Chicago brain trust thinks.

If they rate Caleb Williams anywhere near as high as the majority of draft ‘experts’ do, there is no way they are trading out of the 1st pick.

 

[Om]

Agreed. And I think this is all moot and they're going to grab Williams. Just weighing in on the general idea.

 

[Om]

Which does of course raise the question ... what if PQK think Justin Fields is a better bet than anyone they might draft #2 or later? Not hearing that talked about much, but I suspect we will as we get closer.

 

[Chris]

Moving up from #2 to #1 might not cost a kings ransom if Chicago wanted to deal and Washington was the only suitor.

I’m unsure about the first part. No chance on the second part.

 

[Henry]

The consensus out there seems to be that Washington will have to swap first-rounders this year and then give Chicago our 1st round picks in 2025 and 2026 - minimum.

That's insane. Nobody is asking for that unless they want to be bitchy instead of flat-out saying no to a trade.

Without knowing anything about anything other than this is apparently a QB-rich draft class, I would think we'd trade down a few spots and a QB there, but I'm certainly not married to that idea. As others have said in this thread already, if the front office knows what it's doing it doesn't matter where we draft. We'll get good players.

 

[Bulldog]

A team with a good roster but a middling quarterback is going to get stuck in that 8-9 to 10-7 range and likely wild card round exits in the playoffs.

Again I don’t think we see teams win it all any longer with a Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson.

So, quarterback to me is one of the top needs.

If the team figures out that Penix or McCarthy is a guy that elevates at the next level near where the top 3 come in at, let’s move down.

But if the legit evaluation Peters has in his hands says one of these 3 top rated quarterbacks available at #2 takes us over Dallas, Philly and NYG as we move forward to contender status we need to take him.

 

[tshile]

Kingsberry’s whole thing is he’s got a long list of QB’s he’s done well with and groomed.

The notion he’d feel he must trade up to 1 to get one specific guy seems hilariously dumb to me.

If anything, the possibility to logically consider is that he’d be comfortable trading back to get more picks and work with any of the top 5-6 qbs in the draft …

Pundits aren’t very smart, steal tidbits they don’t understand from local people (without ever giving credit), and say dumb shit all the time. It baffles me that the highly paid sports pundit industry exists. Same with the pregame shows.

 

[Boone]

Sure. But he also has worked with Caleb Williams and would know if all of the supposed ‘negatives’ are just noise or if he’s the 2nd coming.

And just one comment about ‘trading down’. We talk about it in the abstract a lot, but the reality is that trading down in the first round is rarely done.

Here’s a very interesting analytics view of the row and co a of trading up or down. It’s a little dated looking at 2011-2019 but it’s interesting stuff.

Is Trading Down in the First Round of the NFL Draft Beneficial?

By: Amaeya Deshpande

www.bruinsportsanalytics.com

 

[Chris]

I’m not anywhere close to smart enough to even read that. 🙃

 

[tshile]

Sure. But he also has worked with Caleb Williams and would know if all of the supposed ‘negatives’ are just noise or if he’s the 2nd coming.

And just one comment about ‘trading down’. We talk about it in the abstract a lot, but the reality is that trading down in the first round is rarely done.

Here’s a very interesting analytics view of the row and co a of trading up or down. It’s a little dated looking at 2011-2019 but it’s interesting stuff.

Is Trading Down in the First Round of the NFL Draft Beneficial?

By: Amaeya Deshpande

www.bruinsportsanalytics.com

Yeah I have no doubt he knows exactly who Williams is. My guess is we won’t ever find out what that is, I hope we’re not an org that leaks stuff like before.

I just think the logical flow of: he worked with Williams last season therefore that means he will demand a trade to acquire Williams… but isn’t necessarily backed by anything other than recklessly connecting dots.

of course, I’ve never been a fan of trading up. So the whole notion rubs me the wrong way regardless of the details.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

A dot which Al Galdi connected yesterday on his pod, which I think is an important dot to connect: Kliff Kingsbury is an "air raid" guy. UNC runs a version of the Air Raid offense. Are they identical? No. Are they similar? Yes. Who do we know who played at UNC? Well, both our current QB and one of the consensus top 3 QBs.

Kingbury is actually connected to 2 of the top 3 QBs in the draft in some way: through a connection with the UNC OC Lindsey and directly with Calen Williams.

What does this mean? I have literally no idea.

But I think there are some loud voices saying "Ok, they're going after Caleb!" and I think that's probably a bit overdone.

Personally, I think the Bears would be really stupid not to just stand pat and pick Williams and call it a day. It re-sets the QB clock to 0, whereas they'd have to pay Fields in 2 years. And Williams has the higher ceiling. Now, does Williams make it known he doesn't want to go there? Maybe. But absent that, the Bears should just unplug the phone and pick Williams.

Under that scenario, it's up to the evaluation by Peters, Quinn and Kliff to figure out if they love either Maye or Daniels at #2, which one, and why. My guess is they will like one of them. My guess is it's going to be Maye. Because I think Kliff is going to be able to really easily adapt the film from UNC to what he wants to do. It might not be, but that's my guess for right now.

The one scenario which might happen, but I don't think will, is if The Big Three decide they don't love any of the QBs at #2. In which case they damn well better trade down, and then they can figure out if they like a second tier QB or they just don't like any of them and they solve the problem some other way.

NOTE: They WILL NOT ride into the season Ron-like with Howell as the #1 guy without true competition. So somebody else will be brought in here as a possible starter and given that opportunity, and a real competition.

My current prediction is the draft is going to go 1. Bears - Williams, 2. Commanders - Maye, 3. Patriots - Daniels, 4. Cardinals - Harrison Jr. After that who knows. I think the top 4 are going to be boring. I could see a flip between Daniels and Maye.

As to not picking a QB at 2 because of the number of QBs who have failed at #2, that's correlation without causation. Ignore the past and go forward. This is when analytics can lie.

They need to address QB. They need to do it at #2 unless they absolutely do not believe in either Maye or Daniels.

I guess the other option is they believe in Williams, the Bears are stupid and willing to trade to #2, they could trade up one spot. I think it would take a 2024 2nd round pick (ours, the higher one), and then a 2025 first round pick at worst, maybe a 2025 second round pick. Yeah, it's just one spot. But it's a jump up for the #1 QB on the board.

Remember: the other time I can remember a team traded up one spot in the top 5 to grab a QB was 1998, with Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf. The Colts smartly stood pat and picked Peyton. The Chargers, GMed by Bobby Beathard (yes THAT Bobby Beathard) traded up from 3 to 2 to pick up Ryan Leaf. They swapped picks, gave up a 1998 2nd (33rd overall), a 1999 1st (which became WR David Boston), Running Back Eric Metcalf (who was good) and LB Patrick Sapp (and I have no idea who that is.)

So, to get from 2 to 1, we most likely have to get close to that as historical president. And thank you Bobby for that.

 

[@DCGoldPants]

Until they mess up, I'll trust GMAP and his team to make the right move. They feel a QB at #2 is the move, then I trust them. Personally, I don't love any of these QBs projected in the Top 5. If Williams feel to 2? Maybe. But say that happens and they get Williams. Are you putting him out there at your QB1 early or are you following this Ownership mindset of building things right and not rushing? OL needs major help as far as talent and probably coaching.

Unpopular opinion from me. I'd try to move back 3-5 spots and take the best LT possible.

 

[Bulldog]

Fans here are down on these top prospects while the national media and former NFL personnel people I have seen talk about this being the best QB draft in some years.

So, there's a definite divergence.

Perhaps in part it's Williams and Daniels bringing up the ghost of RGIII with the size factor and the durability concerns.

In terms of the experience factor in reading defenses, most quarterbacks come into the NFL having to learn the 'art' of being a successful league qb.

Not many come into the league polished in calling protections, reading coverages and being a coach on the field.

In fact outside of Peyton Manning I don't remember seeing a guy that was that advanced in college.

Maye has size and arm strength but people knock him down for a lack of accuracy when under acute pass pressure.

Well, again that's most quarterbacks entering the NFL.

What Patrick Mahomes is able to do against the blitz and in completing the throws no one thinks he can make standing on one leg are the reason he is a unicorn.

There are things to like in all 3 of these quarterbacks as well as Penix, McCarthy and others. There are also negatives.

But if people are waiting for the Manning or Luck prospect that is close to a 100% lock to be a star passer in the league, we are going to be waiting a long time to fill the QB position and move forward.

Development is the key. That's what the coaches are for.

 

[MikefromOH]

We wanted heinicke and then Howell came along
Now we are on to Williams?

What has he done? Howell was the #1 passer for a few weeks until he got hit so much he started crumbling. That OL won't help anyone you put back there.

 

[@DCGoldPants]

Fans here are down on these top prospects while the national media and former NFL personnel people I have seen talk about this being the best QB draft in some years.

the draft where 5 QBs went in the Top 15 soured me. Trevor Lawerence was the clear 1.1, and then it became ordering the other guys but also keeping most of them in the Top 5. I don't think it's unfair to wonder if QBs are being artificially pumped up to this projection because that's the new norm. If this team believes a QB is the guy to go there with their pick, cool. If they don't, I wouldn't be upset.

 

[Bulldog]

The other way to look at it is the NFL didn't have a book on Howell's tendencies until mid-season and then were able to defense the roll out passes and other EB staples.

Because EB failed to utilize Brian Robinson in the run game or make any other changes, the productivity of the qb and the offense then cratered.

My strong feeling is that with Kyle Shanahan running an offense Brian Robinson is a 1,300 yard back. He has good size but also remarkable quickness to go with it. You can throw in the 50-60 catches too.

That said let's not compare Heinicke to these other quarterbacks. Heinicke was undrafted and sat as a backup in Carolina for a reason.

He lacks size and his arm strength cuts down on the size of the playbook and what you can run.

He is a good backup. He can go in and win a game or two. But he is not a 17 game starter. We saw that in Atlanta this year.

In fact Smith's inability to get enough out of Ritter and Heinicke is the major reason he is no longer in town.

In regards to Howell, I think he has more skill than Heinicke and IMO will be in the NFL longer. Now, whether that is as a top backup on a good team or a spot-starter or more than that I don't know.

Unlike some fans on WFAN I heard last week, I am in favor of bringing Sam back again in 2024.

I doubt however that a new owner who just spent $6B on the team is going to simply keep Sam and then bring in a 33 year old backup to hold for extra points and field goals.

We need greater competition across the board. Outside of McLaurin, Allen and a few others the starting spots are not locked down yet by any means.

I think you take a quarterback early. Whether Peters favors a guy at #2 or moves down and takes a quarterback at #15 or 20 I don't know what is in his mind.