QB or not QB

What tendencies can you get from someone who gets hit every time they step back? All I can tell you is you get nervous and gun shy.

Howell deserves a year with a good line in front of him over drafting a kid who still cries in his mom's arms when he loses a game.
 
Really? We have that little regard for all of the top draft prospects? None of these players are mentally tough in games or capable of handling any adversity?

Ultimately, Peters will show us how the professionals view the qb position here, but again I can't imagine bringing Sam back as the unquestioned starter with no competition after a 4-13 season and a new HC in the building.
 
Williams draft fell tremendously since he started losing and showed who he is mentally. It was obvious to anyone watching the kid is primed to be the next Ryan Lead and not Peyton Manning
 
Williams isn't my first choice.

If I were a gambling GM I might trade down into the mid-teens and take Penix Jr.

This kid has overcome a lot and basically put a team that hadn't been doing much before on his back for a ride to the title game.
 
If we don't have a better OL no rookie QB is going survive back there
 
I think since we have nine picks in the upcoming draft, including an extra 2nd and 3rd, we can afford to use the first rounder on a QB. Especially if we trade down to, say the 10th spot or so and get a few more picks along the way. Howell showed some promise, but he wasn't awesome and if there's a good prospect on the board we like I think we should take him.
 
Agreed. We have four other picks in the top 100 and $75M in cap space to put some quality talent next to Sam Cosmi.
 
I have firmly stated previously that I don't think a QB at no. 2 is a 'must.'

If they feel Drake Maye (or Daniels) is the right fit, and they're confident he's the right guy, then they absolutely 100% have to take him.

That said, over the last 2 decades, there has been more of a precedent set that QBs taken outside of the top 5 have been exponentially more successful with their drafting team2. This has created an intrigue so I got to thinking.

1. This is not all on the player. Obviously better 'teams' do not pick in the top 5 very often, so high pick QBs are walking into a lesser roster, because the team was bad... hence the reason they're picking top 5.

2. Qbs taken in the top 5 very likely have a tendency to be over-drafted. There are a couple reasons for this. The first of these is the fact that the overwhelming majority of the time a team is picking top 5, they don't have a guy at QB. The second part of this, is because there is a massive concern that they won't be able to get their guy later in the first round, so even if they have questions, they're more likely to take the guy up there just to make sure they get him.

3. Teams that are bad, imho, likely have their own struggles in player evaluation. Look at the teams that consistently pick top half of the draft (meaning they're consistently bottom half of the standings). Most of them aren't littered with pro-bowlers. I don't know that it's a major factor, but i would be seriously interested in seeing how the same QBs getting picked top 5 are graded by the 'better' talent evaluators in the league and see if there is a level of disparity.

4. QBs in the top 5 are NEVER groomed. They're anointed the 'savior' and it's determined that they are the week 1 starter, almost no matter what.

5. QBs in the top 5 are likely coming into a team rolling out a new offensive scheme, whether that be because of a new HC, or a new OC. This means that the other 10 guys on the field are likely entering a new offensive scheme as well. New language, new o-line protections, new everything. This creates a scenario where (at least at the beginning) there is room for more issues there.

Looking at all of those things, I'm seriously concerned about taking a QB at no. 2. It's 100% going to come down to talent evaluation. If there is any serious concerns about any of these guys in any areas, it's a major worry. Missing on QB at no. 2 while the team is this thin at talent can set the franchise back 5 years easy.... This is not to say I'm against taking a guy at no. 2, but I do not want to pass up a legitimate premium talent at another position, when we have so many of need. If Drake Maye is their 5th best player on their board, and the rating they have on him is an 80, where LTs are an 85... you take Maye. If he's the 25th player on their board, and he's at least a tier lower than the LTs, i'm not sold on taking him.

Personally, I want to build the roster up before 'locking in' on our starting QB, as I don't know that i'm confident any of the top 3 in this draft are the guy.
 
With so many factors playing into the choices we have coming up. The best thing you can do is start making a pro and cons list on everything you can imagine to help you create a decision tree. The main reason for doing this is to remove as much of the emotion in making a choice in direction before pulling the trigger.

There have been since 2000, 8 rookie QBs who have gone on to win a playoff game. This info is not meant to discourage a pick, simply place realistic results of the fact. The big picture is always on the mind of the GM. If after evaluations, its clear one of the young QBs is a must, then we give ourselves the best chance at that spot for the near future and hopefully long term. My ideal situation for the Commanders is they make the pick of one of the 3 and Howell beats them out to start. That result would be all positive for nothing else than competition made the choice on the field. Doesn't drop the pick an inch in my mind because of that action, it means it raised Howell to another level.

This is the ideal scenario for all positions we are dealing with through FA and then the draft. Now the front office earns its money. Minor course corrections are the goal.

Results matter and we are taking our first step. Let the fun begin.

For me, my focus is the Line. Both sides. Top priority. Everything stems through that. Especially in the NFC East.
 
I think a credible case can be made that the other 3 NFC East teams are ALL overpaying their starting quarterbacks and we can use that to our advantage in terms of cap management and roster construction if we make the right move(s) in the draft.
 
Boone said:
Sure. But he also has worked with Caleb Williams and would know if all of the supposed ‘negatives’ are just noise or if he’s the 2nd coming.

And just one comment about ‘trading down’. We talk about it in the abstract a lot, but the reality is that trading down in the first round is rarely done.

Here’s a very interesting analytics view of the row and co a of trading up or down. It’s a little dated looking at 2011-2019 but it’s interesting stuff.

www.bruinsportsanalytics.com

Is Trading Down in the First Round of the NFL Draft Beneficial?

By: Amaeya Deshpande
www.bruinsportsanalytics.com www.bruinsportsanalytics.com
Click to expand...
Didn't we trade back when we got Champ Bailey? Ditka going after Ricky Williams?
 
Yeah we did. We traded with the Saints (12) and then back up with the Bears (7) to select Champ.
 
Both those guys move around in and out the pocket on a regular basis, dramatically extending plays. I wonder if/how this stat considers that?
 
I would tell you Om that it does not factor that into those numbers. To figure that out, you would need to know or at least speculate when a play went off schedule, where did he go (L or R) and then what success or failure came from it. A few other points to track from those type of plays to get a handle on what was a tendency if there was any at all. Having done that for the past 15 years or so, the breakdown of film can become way to detailed and end in information overload. As a coach, you become more focused on decision making at various points during plays and backtrack if necessary.

Fantasy football did not do coaches any favors.
 
I think that's what I'm saying. If the NextGen stat above is simply the average time a QB has the ball in his hands before he throws it, it feels kind of useless. Too many variables to draw any kinds of conclusions. I would expect Tom Brady--as good as any QB has ever been at simply getting the ball out, even if it's a throwaway--to have a noticeably lower average than Kyler Murray, who cannot hit a plant foot and throw if his life depended on it. Or where to slot a Mahomes, who strikes a great balance of both depending on the flow any given game. Etc.

That said, I'd love to know what kinds of variables/metrics NextGen does use in that stat ... I'm just not feelin' like it's something I need to dig into.
 
That stat is simply how long does it take to throw the ball after the snap.

Now, one process, is to track how long it takes for a QB to throw the ball. You get every play from a game. Then you start breaking down the info with that stat. Did he roll out, was he moved out, did he get happy feet....blah, blah, blah. All of this leads you to a tendency you might try and capitilize on. Add that to the game plan....etc.

Overall, PFF and NextGen stats are good information. Many of the stats in a game can't be argued with. The evaulation part of those stats are isolated to the coaching staff since they are the ones who truly know if the player correctly did their job or not. Also, based on gameplan or dealing with a particular player....those choices could be stat killers as to how that scenario is apporoached during game day.

Just an example as food for thought, I was chatting with a coach whose friend is a coach in the league and he was going off on PFF as they graded one of the players as one of the top 3 for that week. He was laughing because he said that player graded almost 10 points lower than PFF had him evaluated at. He said his friend announced during the meeting "I know you all wish PFF paid your salary but welcome to reality...that crap ain't gonna fly on this team" or something to that effect. It was funny.
 
stats are funny because often the person doesn’t know how to use them.

How long it takes from snap to release and where it ranks in the league is the stat. Using your football mind - what does that tell you? It doesn’t tell me anything.

The presumption is longer means indecisiveness, not seeing the field, not finding the open field, being gun shy … ?

Seems like any one of those is an awful lot to draw from a basic stat. More than one? Phew boy.


In a conversation the other day I pointed out it’s unrealistic to ask your secondary to cover a receiver for more than 3 seconds. The athleticism, the rules, the fact he knows where he’s going but you don’t - it’s unrealistic to expect them to hold coverage for 6 seconds. This is why pressure is so important. Sacks and hurried passes are vital

So if you show me someone taking long to throw the ball, I’d ask what their completion percentage is. If it’s high, I’d find that interesting. I’ve always thought the best QBs threw people open and hit them in stride - so next I’d ask what the YAC was. Maybe they have a scheme, a line, a system that allows you to hold onto the ball - and you’re hitting wide open guys for large YAC. Maybe he can manipulate the pocket, has good offensive linemen, maybe they play in a weak division so 6 games a year are cake walk for them, maybe he’s one of these modern, overly athletic QBs. I don’t know, I got lots of questions when you tell me how long someone holds onto the ball on average, and where it ranks, before I can begin to figure out what direction I’m supposed to head in.

But all we get these days are open ended tweets about stats that strongly imply there’s some big negative to see, without pointing out which one.

Stats are supposed to be informational aids to help in decision making. I’m a fan of the eye test - I think football is full of them. We’ve all watched games where the score didn’t reflect what went on in the game.

Stats aren’t supposed to be conclusions in and of themselves. Smart analytic people understand that. They don’t just know the numbers like this, they don’t just know how to look them up or ask someone how to chain some stats together to get a new composite number that means something. They also know what those numbers mean, and how to use them, and when a number is really noise or an edge case. They understand the value of the eye test, and other informational tools.
 
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Yep, I remember PFF grading out Donovan Smith well during a season he lead the league in OL penalties.

The only way this guy could block was to hog tie guys and pull them down 🤣🤣🤣
 
His last games at USC. He was more known for folding and then breaking down when he lost than the wins against easy teams. It looks like he didn't even beat a ranked team last year.

Screenshot_20240207-211953.png
 
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