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I hear it all over social media.
To be a great team, you have to have a top tier, franchise caliber QB. And Washington needs one desperately.
I'm not here to argue that point - because I can't. We all know, setting aside Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson outliers, that teams generally don't go beyond the first couple of rounds of the NFL playoffs unless they have a premier QB. While there are certainly other factors involved, like having a great defense, or a dominating rushing attack, to be a great team, you have to have, at bare minimum, a very good QB.
There are only 4 ways to get a very good QB.
1. Do a mega-trade to acquire a proven top tier QB from another team.
2. Do a mega-deal to move up in the NFL draft for a top-rated QB.
3. Draft a young QB outside of the top 10 picks and hit the jackpot.
4. Stumble blindly onto a great QB ala Kurt Warner.
Although Washington has floundered more and for longer than any other NFL team in their efforts to find a great long-term QB, they've generally avoided option #1. We've usually squandered enough draft picks and lack enticing talent on our own roster to prohibit pulling off a big-time trade for a known star. And who would really want to come here if they are a successful star at the QB position?
We have gone the option #2 route recently - with RG3. Had Griffin proven to be what we thought he might be that first season, those three 1st round picks would've been worth it. But we were hypnotized by Griffin's electric athleticism and only later did it become apparent, the guy really couldn't play QB at an NFL level. That's, at it's core, the reason why you don't make big moves to move up in the draft for a QB - because you can never truly know if he will be an NFL success. You are also one career-threatening injury away from wasting a ton of draft capital. Blowing a pick like that after giving up the farm - is disastrous.
When it comes to getting lucky with a QB selection outside the top 10, our most successful stretch at QB came courtesy of a 4th round insurance pick in Kirk Cousins. Love him or hate him, Cousins was a very good QB given where we selected him. Had we gone with Cousins instead of RG3, and had better coaching and stability around him, he might well have made Washington a perennial playoff team for a long time. Instead we gave up numerous picks to get the wrong QB, squandered Cousins talent, and finally alienated him by failing to lock him up for the long-term resulting in an ugly departure.
Over and over again, we've seen top QB picks bust. Sure, there are the occasional Andrew Lucks who are so dominant and talented at the college level, they're as close to 'can't miss' as there ever will be. But those kinds of talents are rare indeed. Many teams have found their starting QBs with later picks. Of the 32 current NFL QB starters, only half of them were drafted with a top 10 pick. Many of them (11 total) were selected in the 2nd round and beyond. Not all of the current NFL starters are what we would call 'franchise QBs' - but the point stands. Teams find their starter outside of the top 10 as often as they do inside of it.
So why can't we?
Option #3 is ideal for the most obvious of reasons. Firstly, although we can rightly heap criticism on Dan Snyder's era of failure, one thing we have generally accomplished is mediocrity. Rarely have we performed so badly as to warrant a top 5 or even top 10 draft pick. We've mostly been just good enough not to earn a top pick, and bad enough not to be very successful. When you don't have top 10 draft picks, you'd better be able to find a QB somewhere else. We haven't been able to accomplish that. Why not? Most recently we've suffered from having an owner who usurps and rejects draft advice from the very scouting experts we've hired to help us make the right decisions. The owner, who has never played or coached a down of college or NFL football, needs to be far away from the QB draft selection process. We can hope that Daniel Snyder has learned that lesson, although it's more likely he blames the disastrous Dwayne Haskins debacle on anything but his own interference.
If we believe we have a competent scouts and draft gurus, Option #3 is ideal because we know that it's possible to find a QB gem with a value pick. That allows us, not only to get our QB of the future, but to retain draft capital and existing talent and be able to build around him and give him the best chance of success. This approach has not worked in Washington, firstly because we've rarely drafted young QBs with a real chance of being franchise QBs, and when we have, we have tended to fire the staff that made the selection and impose that young QB on the next regime. Traditionally, successful teams put absolute faith in their scouts and draft board, select a young QB that everyone (particularly the head coach and offensive coordinator) believe in, and they develop him with stable, consistent staff around him.
Doesn't sound like the approach in DC over the past 20 years, does it?
And of course, there is always Option #4 - get flat out, no-one-saw-this-coming lucky. We all know the problem with this option... the Redskins have never been particularly lucky. It remains to be seen if karma is any kinder to the WFT. But teams DO occasionally find a diamond in the rough who shocks everyone and becomes an NFL starter. Could Taylor Heinicke be a budding Drew Brees that simply slipped through the NFL's imperfect assessment system? Does he have the intangibles that are so hard to define and capture and that might make him a future star? It's possible. But we can't head into the future banking on it, no matter how impressive his brief display of talent. Kyle Allen is a talented young QB, but he's also struggled to stay on the field, and has shown a propensity to turn the ball over. Can he overcome those hurdles to be a bonafide NFL starter? We just don't know.
Right now, there is a ton of fan heat and energy advocating for Options #1 and #2. Most want to make a huge splash deal for Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, or Matthew Stafford. I get it. We've been without a real impact starting QB for longer than any of us can remember. Setting aside Griffins single electric season, when is the last time we had a QB who could take the team on it's back in a critical game, and win it for us? How long has it been since we had a QB who, just by having him on the roster, nearly guaranteed we'd be a playoff team for any given season?
Good lord, we've been wandering the QB desert for eons.
I get the impulse to make a big mega-deal to trade for a star QB or move up to draft a top-rated prospect.
But that's the old Redskins way. It's a desperate Hail Mary short cut that will cost us a King's ransom in draft capital and/or existing talent. We must hope Rivera resists the impulse to pull either of those triggers.
Of late, we've been inexplicably and decidedly anti-Redskins in our approach. We've hoarded our draft picks. We've mostly used them wisely. With rare exception, we've trusted our scouts and draft board. We've added young talent. We've found hidden gems with day 2 picks and beyond. We have more than the beginnings of a very young, talented roster. But the next several drafts are going to be critical to moving beyond a gutsy young team with some marquee talent to one that literally strikes fear in the hearts of opponents. And we finally have a coach who gets it, who can instill a winning tradition and spirit in the guys we do add to the mix. This team can be a perennial playoff participant that's a threat to go to and win a Super Bowl - but only if we keep building the right way.
It's true. To be a successful NFL franchise, we have to find a highly capable franchise QB, but we can do that the right way.
Building the right way means finding our next QB in the upcoming draft, whether it's at pick 19 or beyond. If we don't believe Kyle Allen or Taylor Heineke can be that hidden gem who suddenly seizes control at QB, there is a QB in this draft that can fit that bill for us. It's our front office's job to find him. Don't give away the future for a quick fix, don't sell the farm to move up to the top of the draft to 'boost your chances'. Don't make a panic move just when we are on the verge of success. Keep building. Keep your precious capital. Keep adding talent. And find our QB with the picks you possess.
It can be done. And that's how we've got to do it.
To be a great team, you have to have a top tier, franchise caliber QB. And Washington needs one desperately.
I'm not here to argue that point - because I can't. We all know, setting aside Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson outliers, that teams generally don't go beyond the first couple of rounds of the NFL playoffs unless they have a premier QB. While there are certainly other factors involved, like having a great defense, or a dominating rushing attack, to be a great team, you have to have, at bare minimum, a very good QB.
There are only 4 ways to get a very good QB.
1. Do a mega-trade to acquire a proven top tier QB from another team.
2. Do a mega-deal to move up in the NFL draft for a top-rated QB.
3. Draft a young QB outside of the top 10 picks and hit the jackpot.
4. Stumble blindly onto a great QB ala Kurt Warner.
Although Washington has floundered more and for longer than any other NFL team in their efforts to find a great long-term QB, they've generally avoided option #1. We've usually squandered enough draft picks and lack enticing talent on our own roster to prohibit pulling off a big-time trade for a known star. And who would really want to come here if they are a successful star at the QB position?
We have gone the option #2 route recently - with RG3. Had Griffin proven to be what we thought he might be that first season, those three 1st round picks would've been worth it. But we were hypnotized by Griffin's electric athleticism and only later did it become apparent, the guy really couldn't play QB at an NFL level. That's, at it's core, the reason why you don't make big moves to move up in the draft for a QB - because you can never truly know if he will be an NFL success. You are also one career-threatening injury away from wasting a ton of draft capital. Blowing a pick like that after giving up the farm - is disastrous.
When it comes to getting lucky with a QB selection outside the top 10, our most successful stretch at QB came courtesy of a 4th round insurance pick in Kirk Cousins. Love him or hate him, Cousins was a very good QB given where we selected him. Had we gone with Cousins instead of RG3, and had better coaching and stability around him, he might well have made Washington a perennial playoff team for a long time. Instead we gave up numerous picks to get the wrong QB, squandered Cousins talent, and finally alienated him by failing to lock him up for the long-term resulting in an ugly departure.
Over and over again, we've seen top QB picks bust. Sure, there are the occasional Andrew Lucks who are so dominant and talented at the college level, they're as close to 'can't miss' as there ever will be. But those kinds of talents are rare indeed. Many teams have found their starting QBs with later picks. Of the 32 current NFL QB starters, only half of them were drafted with a top 10 pick. Many of them (11 total) were selected in the 2nd round and beyond. Not all of the current NFL starters are what we would call 'franchise QBs' - but the point stands. Teams find their starter outside of the top 10 as often as they do inside of it.
So why can't we?
Option #3 is ideal for the most obvious of reasons. Firstly, although we can rightly heap criticism on Dan Snyder's era of failure, one thing we have generally accomplished is mediocrity. Rarely have we performed so badly as to warrant a top 5 or even top 10 draft pick. We've mostly been just good enough not to earn a top pick, and bad enough not to be very successful. When you don't have top 10 draft picks, you'd better be able to find a QB somewhere else. We haven't been able to accomplish that. Why not? Most recently we've suffered from having an owner who usurps and rejects draft advice from the very scouting experts we've hired to help us make the right decisions. The owner, who has never played or coached a down of college or NFL football, needs to be far away from the QB draft selection process. We can hope that Daniel Snyder has learned that lesson, although it's more likely he blames the disastrous Dwayne Haskins debacle on anything but his own interference.
If we believe we have a competent scouts and draft gurus, Option #3 is ideal because we know that it's possible to find a QB gem with a value pick. That allows us, not only to get our QB of the future, but to retain draft capital and existing talent and be able to build around him and give him the best chance of success. This approach has not worked in Washington, firstly because we've rarely drafted young QBs with a real chance of being franchise QBs, and when we have, we have tended to fire the staff that made the selection and impose that young QB on the next regime. Traditionally, successful teams put absolute faith in their scouts and draft board, select a young QB that everyone (particularly the head coach and offensive coordinator) believe in, and they develop him with stable, consistent staff around him.
Doesn't sound like the approach in DC over the past 20 years, does it?
And of course, there is always Option #4 - get flat out, no-one-saw-this-coming lucky. We all know the problem with this option... the Redskins have never been particularly lucky. It remains to be seen if karma is any kinder to the WFT. But teams DO occasionally find a diamond in the rough who shocks everyone and becomes an NFL starter. Could Taylor Heinicke be a budding Drew Brees that simply slipped through the NFL's imperfect assessment system? Does he have the intangibles that are so hard to define and capture and that might make him a future star? It's possible. But we can't head into the future banking on it, no matter how impressive his brief display of talent. Kyle Allen is a talented young QB, but he's also struggled to stay on the field, and has shown a propensity to turn the ball over. Can he overcome those hurdles to be a bonafide NFL starter? We just don't know.
Right now, there is a ton of fan heat and energy advocating for Options #1 and #2. Most want to make a huge splash deal for Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, or Matthew Stafford. I get it. We've been without a real impact starting QB for longer than any of us can remember. Setting aside Griffins single electric season, when is the last time we had a QB who could take the team on it's back in a critical game, and win it for us? How long has it been since we had a QB who, just by having him on the roster, nearly guaranteed we'd be a playoff team for any given season?
Good lord, we've been wandering the QB desert for eons.
I get the impulse to make a big mega-deal to trade for a star QB or move up to draft a top-rated prospect.
But that's the old Redskins way. It's a desperate Hail Mary short cut that will cost us a King's ransom in draft capital and/or existing talent. We must hope Rivera resists the impulse to pull either of those triggers.
Of late, we've been inexplicably and decidedly anti-Redskins in our approach. We've hoarded our draft picks. We've mostly used them wisely. With rare exception, we've trusted our scouts and draft board. We've added young talent. We've found hidden gems with day 2 picks and beyond. We have more than the beginnings of a very young, talented roster. But the next several drafts are going to be critical to moving beyond a gutsy young team with some marquee talent to one that literally strikes fear in the hearts of opponents. And we finally have a coach who gets it, who can instill a winning tradition and spirit in the guys we do add to the mix. This team can be a perennial playoff participant that's a threat to go to and win a Super Bowl - but only if we keep building the right way.
It's true. To be a successful NFL franchise, we have to find a highly capable franchise QB, but we can do that the right way.
Building the right way means finding our next QB in the upcoming draft, whether it's at pick 19 or beyond. If we don't believe Kyle Allen or Taylor Heineke can be that hidden gem who suddenly seizes control at QB, there is a QB in this draft that can fit that bill for us. It's our front office's job to find him. Don't give away the future for a quick fix, don't sell the farm to move up to the top of the draft to 'boost your chances'. Don't make a panic move just when we are on the verge of success. Keep building. Keep your precious capital. Keep adding talent. And find our QB with the picks you possess.
It can be done. And that's how we've got to do it.