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The Case Against a 'Splash' QB Move

Aaron Rodgers will never come to DC.

He sucks all the oxygen out of the air of whatever room he enters and Ron has made it clear the culture here is about the team.

At 37 I don't see Rodgers moving on from Green Bay this coming year as Jordan Love is not ready to be a qb in the NFL and may never be.

After 2021 Rodgers dead cap money is a lot more manageable for a trade away from GB. That's when he will be moved.
 
Good points on Darnold in the thread. I forgot about that dude. Maybe he has a chance to pull a "Tannehill?" Like Tannehill - maybe just getting away from that clown, Gase, can help his career get back on track.
 
I like Derek Carr, but I wonder how much Jay's brother hates us because of what happened with his scummy relative here.

I don't see why he would give us a good QB.
 
It's a business.

Scott Turner came here after his father had his 'fun' with Dan Snyder back in the day :giggle:

If Washington were interested in Carr and gave Oakland the best deal Chucky would take it.

I didn't think about Carr and he hasn't been mentioned in the NFL media much if at all - but a smart front office would be working these unconventional angles.

It's sexier to talk about Watson or Aaron Rodgers but the odds are they stay put in 2021 and Washington either makes a deal for a guy like Carr or goes into the draft and moves up.

After the deal the Lions got for Stafford that only inflated the asking price for Watson.

I see New England being mentioned in every report on quarterbacks but the truth is the Patriots after 7-9 and what appears to be a rebuilding program on the horizon are not an appealing destination. Weather is lousy, taxes are high in MA and Belichick is known for running an NFL prison.

Remember Stafford told the Lions anywhere BUT New England?

I doubt Belichick makes a trade to give up all his picks - he's not getting any big free agents that want to come there now and is going to need the picks to restart the Patriots.

My guess is he sits where he is in the draft and takes the best quarterback available.

And then continues to build on the cheap.
 
I don't think the Stafford deal inflates Watson because I think the inflated Stafford deal was to compensate the Goff angle. Had Goff not been included in that deal, they don't get 2 first round picks. Of course LA would not have Stafford and Goff on the roster at the same time, but I have no doubt that the extra 1st round pick was to incentivize Detroit to take on Goff and his enormous contract.

Stafford didnt want to go to New England likely because Matt Patricia is back in that building.. the same guy that was Detroits head coach for the last 3 years.

It's also now coming out that Stafford said no to a handful of other teams including Washington. I don't think it was some scorn, as much as it was Stafford had his heart set on LA Rams and Detroit obliged. They did him a solid, and set themselves up will to rebuild with. Goff can be their place holder while their new HC and GM purge their inept roster and rebuild with no 5 first round picks in the next 3 drafts. Now there are reports that McVay and Stafford were vacationing together in Cabo as this deal was going down... It was LA, it was always going to be LA.
 
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IMO we should stand pat at #19 and keep ALL of our picks to build the offense. Talk Smith into retirement, resign Allen & Heineken then draft Kyle Trask with our 2nd rounder. According to walterfootball he can be had between the 2nd and 4th. Let the “vets” battle for the #1 while Trask sits and learns.


Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
Height: 6-5. Weight: 239.
Projected 40 Time: 4.8.
Projected Round (2021): 2-4.


 
Thanks Win4us, I'm not a college football guy in general. He sounds like an interesting prospect. The 'statue' characterization is a little scary at this level, because successful QBs are usually either mobile and athletically gifted, or at least have enough awareness and shiftiness to sense an NFL pass rush and move enough to gain a few precious seconds. That may or may not be a big deal, but he's an interesting one to watch.
 
I think Trask makes up for it with good pocket awareness and decision making though. Landing his teammate with #19, Kyle Pitts, then Trask in the 2nd could leave one or both of the 3rd rounders towards upgrading the OT’s.

Doubt Pitts will last to our pick but could provide a helluva ‘what if’ say he does.

 
I'm gonna buck the trend here but Pitts to me is a slot WR not a TE. I don't think he transitions to an every down TE in the NFL. He is absolutely a dynamic playmaker and will make big plays, but I worry about the run offenses he ends up being a part of. His ceiling to me is Jordan Reed which is seemingly a ringing endorsement but I wonder how he fits in THIS offense. I was very pleased with Logan Thomas so I would likely lean toward getting a TE later in the draft that can be used as more of a blocker while keeping Thomas as our primary pass catching TE... and using 19 on one of the top tier OTs in the draft.. just my opinion.


As far as Trask I don't think he's available in the 2nd round when we pick at 51. I don't think he makes it past Tampa Bay. If we were to get him it would likely have to be at 19, and it's kind of understood that if you like a QB in the 2nd round, you take him in the 1st round because of the benefit of the guaranteed 5th year option that comes with taking a player in round 1. I also don't think Rivera lends himself to 'statues' (not really a better word?), he leans toward the more athletic and versatile QB. Trask is Big Ben without the mobility and ability to extend plays. I don't think it's an accident that the offense looked exponentially more effective with Heinicke, so I imagine he will be looking for a QB that can be closer to that, than a QB that is limited the way Alex Smith was this season. That's why there are reports now that WFT is enamored with Fields, and there's speculation we could trade up... not sure I would like that as we would have to move up quite a bit to get him AND I've got my own weird apprehension with him and his ability to translate to the NFL, but what do I really know?
 
No one knows brother. No one. The best anyone can hope for is the best and most informed guess possible. Drafting a QB is always a hairy proposition.
 
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Yeah, but the best teams keep the picks and make the most of them.

Rodgers, Wilson, Roethlisberger, Mahomes, Watson and most of the other top quarterbacks in recent years were all drafted by the teams they played with in 2020.

None of these players were drafted in the first 5-6 picks of the draft and the Redskins passed on chances to draft a number of them.

If a team is one player away from a title I can see the need to make a Stafford type deal, especially with the Rams having given up so much in the Ramsey trade and having key players nearing or over 30 years of age. They need to make hay in 2021.

To me the team needs to find a quarterback of the future. But that can be in the draft as well as free agency.

What I don't want to do is go into next season with Kyle Allen and Heinicke as the #1/2 and having to look to 2022 to START again to find a future passer.

If we are transitioning in 2021 and have the next qb on board and learning the system to take over that is a horse of a different color.
 
I want us to draft a QB as well. That being said - it’s risky - because say what we will about this being a different leadership group, we have a disastrous history of blowing picks on QB. Have we even drafted a top tier QB in the modern era? I don’t think so. And do t think the risk of Snyder being involved is out of the question.

That’s why there is so much fan interest in trading for a known quantity. A lot of the rumors out there are fueled by ‘what if’ scenarios. It’s probably unlikely that the Raiders are actually looking to pull off a 3 way trade to acquire Watson, and even if they were, unlikely they’d get enough for Carr to make it happen.

If they’d give up Carr for our 1st and maybe a 7th, I’d pull the trigger on that in a heartbeat. Otherwise, stand pat or if you love a kid in the draft, grab him.
 
KC traded up for Mahomes while they had Alex Smith coming off an 12 win season. They gave up 2 firsts and a 3rd to make it happen.

The bottom line is that if the right guy is there, you do whatever it takes to get him. You don't take the 'best guy' and hope he works out. I also think we need to continue to let go of previous failures in regards to player evaluation. I know we haven't drafted QBs very well but lets take an HONEST look at the level of investment we've given the position.

2019 - 1st Round (15)- Dwayne Haskins - Dan Snyder went AGAINST the football people to make this pick

2016 - 6th Round (187) - Nate Sudfeld

2012 - 1st Round (2) - Robert Griffin III - Again... football people against this pick
2012 - 4th Round (102) - Kirk Cousins

2008 - 6th Round (186) - Colt Brennan

2007 - 6th Round (205) - Jordan Palmer

2005 - 1st Round (25) - Jason Campbell

2003 - 7th Round (232) - Gibran Hamdan

2002 - 1st Round (32) - Patrick Ramsey

2001 - 4th Round (109) - Sage Rosenfels


2000 - --Tom Brady taken 199--
2000 - 6th Round (202) - Todd Husak


Where is the actual investment? 'We suck at drafting QB' is the narrative but we're not exactly looking at a history here that has had some major investment with a bunch of big swings and misses... In the amount of time since the 'Goat' has been drafted we have drafted 10 QBs, 4 in the 1st round, only 1 of them being earlier than 15th overall. These are late first round flier picks, not necessarily drafting QB high to address the need.

So New England takes Brady in the 6th round of the 2000 NFL Draft. Want to take a wild guess at how many QBs they have drafted since drafting Tom Brady?

10. New England and Washington have both drafted the SAME AMOUNT OF QBs since the day Tom Brady was drafted.... chew on that.
 
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KC traded up for Mahomes while they had Alex Smith coming off an 12 win season. They gave up 2 firsts and a 3rd to make it happen.

The bottom line is that if the right guy is there, you do whatever it takes to get him. You don't take the 'best guy' and hope he works out. I also think we need to continue to let go of previous failures in regards to player evaluation. I know we haven't drafted QBs very well but lets take an HONEST look at the level of investment we've given the position.

2019 - 1st Round (15)- Dwayne Haskins - Dan Snyder went AGAINST the football people to make this pick

2016 - 6th Round (187) - Nate Sudfeld

2012 - 1st Round (2) - Robert Griffin III - Again... football people against this pick
2012 - 4th Round (102) - Kirk Cousins

2008 - 6th Round (186) - Colt Brennan

2007 - 6th Round (205) - Jordan Palmer

2005 - 1st Round (25) - Jason Campbell

2003 - 7th Round (232) - Gibran Hamdan

2002 - 1st Round (32) - Patrick Ramsey

2001 - 4th Round (109) - Sage Rosenfels


2000 - --Tom Brady taken 199--
2000 - 6th Round (202) - Todd Husak


Where is the actual investment? 'We suck at drafting QB' is the narrative but we're not exactly looking at a history here that has had some major investment with a bunch of big swings and misses... In the amount of time since the 'Goat' has been drafted we have drafted 10 QBs, 4 in the 1st round, only 1 of them being earlier than 15th overall. These are late first round flier picks, not necessarily drafting QB high to address the need.

So New England takes Brady in the 6th round of the 2000 NFL Draft. Want to take a wild guess at how many QBs they have drafted since drafting Tom Brady?

10. New England and Washington have both drafted the SAME AMOUNT OF QBs since the day Tom Brady was drafted.... chew on that.

I get your overall point. If you truly believe a QB in the draft can be 'the guy', you go get him. But putting up the best QB pick in 20 years as an example is a little, well, skewed if I'm being kind :) I can give exponentially more examples of teams who were sure they were 'getting their guy' and were smarter than all the other scouting departments, only to find out otherwise. We should know. We gave up 3 1st rounders for Robert Griffin. The odds you are going to get a top QB for decades in the draft are not great. Even the experts are wrong about as often as they are right on that front.

That doesn't mean if you think that guy is there you don't do everything you need to do to grab him. But you'd better, at least once every 10 or 20 years, be right about. Otherwise, your franchise is going to be mired in mediocrity. Again... we should know.

As far as the list of QBs we've drafted, if your point is, we've drafted far too few of them - I agree. I'd argue, given how hard it is to find a great QB, and the fact that once in a blue moon, one of them available in later rounds turns out to be very good, you should probably draft a QB every damn draft. We haven't done that. But I think that list undermines your argument. We suck at finding good QBs in the draft. Other than Kirk Cousins, that list is a testament to disappointment and failure. Whether fans say 'we suck at drafting QBs' or they say 'You know, it's a new day.... we are drafting well, I think this scouting department and front office will do better than the team has over the past 20 years' - it really doesn't matter.

If Henry wandered by this thread, he'd keep it short and sweet. He'd say 'Show me', or 'when things change, then I'll acknowledge they've changed, but until then...'

And we've thought things had changed before and been proven horribly wrong. Who among us, after Gibbs II and Daniel Snyder's reputation makeover, thought we'd have our dysfunctional owner rear up, usurp his own scouts and GM, and waste a 1st round pick forcing Dwayne Haskins on us? I mean, honestly, even me as negative as I've become would never have believed he was still capable of being that stupid and egocentric. That was just 2 years ago. Then again, even though we no longer believe Snyder saying 'never', the only exception is if he says 'I'll never change'.

Now THAT I believe.

Even with all that negativity spewed, my attitude with this current regime is that they've done well so far. Not perfect. But certainly an improvement. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt when it comes to improving the roster and developing a winning tradition until I have a reason not to. That's not quite 'letting go of previous failures'. I wish I could, but it's going to take more than a playoff appearance and Jason Wright corporate speak to get me fully believing again. That's because I really believe Snyder is a blight and curse on our franchise and it may not be possible for us to have nice things as long as he is at the top of the food chain.
 
I get your overall point. If you truly believe a QB in the draft can be 'the guy', you go get him. But putting up the best QB pick in 20 years as an example is a little, well, skewed if I'm being kind :) I can give exponentially more examples of teams who were sure they were 'getting their guy' and were smarter than all the other scouting departments, only to find out otherwise. We should know. We gave up 3 1st rounders for Robert Griffin. The odds you are going to get a top QB for decades in the draft are not great. Even the experts are wrong about as often as they are right on that front.

That doesn't mean if you think that guy is there you don't do everything you need to do to grab him. But you'd better, at least once every 10 or 20 years, be right about. Otherwise, your franchise is going to be mired in mediocrity. Again... we should know.

As far as the list of QBs we've drafted, if your point is, we've drafted far too few of them - I agree. I'd argue, given how hard it is to find a great QB, and the fact that once in a blue moon, one of them available in later rounds turns out to be very good, you should probably draft a QB every damn draft. We haven't done that. But I think that list undermines your argument. We suck at finding good QBs in the draft. Other than Kirk Cousins, that list is a testament to disappointment and failure. Whether fans say 'we suck at drafting QBs' or they say 'You know, it's a new day.... we are drafting well, I think this scouting department and front office will do better than the team has over the past 20 years' - it really doesn't matter.

If Henry wandered by this thread, he'd keep it short and sweet. He'd say 'Show me', or 'when things change, then I'll acknowledge they've changed, but until then...'

And we've thought things had changed before and been proven horribly wrong. Who among us, after Gibbs II and Daniel Snyder's reputation makeover, thought we'd have our dysfunctional owner rear up, usurp his own scouts and GM, and waste a 1st round pick forcing Dwayne Haskins on us? I mean, honestly, even me as negative as I've become would never have believed he was still capable of being that stupid and egocentric. That was just 2 years ago. Then again, even though we no longer believe Snyder saying 'never', the only exception is if he says 'I'll never change'.

Now THAT I believe.

Even with all that negativity spewed, my attitude with this current regime is that they've done well so far. Not perfect. But certainly an improvement. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt when it comes to improving the roster and developing a winning tradition until I have a reason not to. That's not quite 'letting go of previous failures'. I wish I could, but it's going to take more than a playoff appearance and Jason Wright corporate speak to get me fully believing again. That's because I really believe Snyder is a blight and curse on our franchise and it may not be possible for us to have nice things as long as he is at the top of the food chain.


My point with Mahomes was because he said the point about keeping your picks and making the best of them... While I agree making the 'correct' draft pick is essential, there are situations where the right fit did not come without the trade of draft capital. Buffalo also traded up for Josh Allen. Look at the 4 teams in the conference championships. Allen and Mahomes traded up for, Brady signed as a FA, and Rodgers being the ONLY one that was drafted by their team that was taken at their original draft position. Baltimore traded UP into the 1st round to take Lamar Jackson.

Thats my other point Boone... there are so few top tier QBs that you don't just stop trying. New England had Bledsoe when they drafted Brady. Seattle had JUST paid Matt Flynn when they drafted Wilson. Green Bay had Favre when they drafted Rodgers. Arizona had just drafted Rosen when they took Murray.

You keep swinging til you figure it out, and even then you keep replenishing the stock. We suck at finding good QBs in the draft because we don't keep trying til we find one. You ever heard the reason why a Native American rain dance always works? Cuz they don't stop dancin til it stars rainin!
 
100% agree ST. Keep swinging.

I thinking trading up is a different gamble though. Again, you give up a shitload of high picks to move up, you'd better get it right or you'll pay for the mistake for years. There are a lot of ways to skin a cat - but you better know what you're doing or you're going to end up with a bloody mess (both you and the cat!)
 
100% agree ST. Keep swinging.

I thinking trading up is a different gamble though. Again, you give up a shitload of high picks to move up, you'd better get it right or you'll pay for the mistake for years. There are a lot of ways to skin a cat - but you better know what you're doing or you're going to end up with a bloody mess (both you and the cat!)


That's the other point... it's only a gamble if it's an unknown quantity, and that comes back to the evaluator.... If you know what you're lookin for, and that guy is available....
 
If you're talking about the draft, there are just too many examples of huge blown QB draft picks to chalk it up to bad evaluators. Sure - some things, especially objective measurements - arm strength, accuracy, mobility, speed - can be well evaluated. But the intangibles which are so important (maybe more important) are very difficult to assess. Look at Russell Wilson. He's small, a very good athlete, and had a decent college career (3 pretty good seasons at NC State, and a final one at Wisconsin which was impressive). But almost everyone (including the Redskins) didn't see 'it' in him. I think it's hard to argue that everyone but Seattle had poor talent evaluators.

I'm just saying, it's fine to say 'if you see your man, go get him and do whatever it takes to get him'. It's not wrong. But teams do this all the time and fail. It's risky.
 
Why aren't we hearing more rumors about Darnold?

It seems curious to me that, given the Jets will almost certainly go QB with the 2nd pick in 2021, you'd think they'd be out there trying to stir up a bidding war for him and grab some more picks? I've barely heard him mentioned, meanwhile, fans are obsessing over Derek Carr rumors when he's coming off the best season of his career and the Raiders by all trustworthy accounts intend to keep him.

Where's the heat behind a possible trade for Darnold? Is it possible the Jets plan to trade down and go forward with Darnold as their man?
 
If you're talking about the draft, there are just too many examples of huge blown QB draft picks to chalk it up to bad evaluators. Sure - some things, especially objective measurements - arm strength, accuracy, mobility, speed - can be well evaluated. But the intangibles which are so important (maybe more important) are very difficult to assess. Look at Russell Wilson. He's small, a very good athlete, and had a decent college career (3 pretty good seasons at NC State, and a final one at Wisconsin which was impressive). But almost everyone (including the Redskins) didn't see 'it' in him. I think it's hard to argue that everyone but Seattle had poor talent evaluators.

I'm just saying, it's fine to say 'if you see your man, go get him and do whatever it takes to get him'. It's not wrong. But teams do this all the time and fail. It's risky.


All fair, but Seattle didnt trade up. There can be multiple approaches. Have a completely fluid approach. If the right guy is there, you make a move. If a shocker of a player falls, you take him regardless of how you feel at the position... this is the category Wilson falls into... likely Rodgers as well. Also, get in the habit of a later round QB with a great deal of frequency if that guy fits your system regardless of what your current QB situation is.


As far as Darnold, I have no idea. I would love to give him a shot.
 

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