The 2025 Draft Thread

[skinsinparadise]

I thought that was definitely true with Jamin Davis and Dotson. With Forbes, I thought he was a great college player who had a better college career than Christian Gonzalez and Deonte Banks. Plus that draft with Forbes was just a weak first round draft class. I think Gonzalez was the guy who had the traits and a really good final season, but before that final season, he hadn't stood out. Banks was another guy with the traits, but he never really broke out in college. He was a good football player for Maryland but never had a great season. With hindsight the guy with the traits and production (even if it was only for one season), Gonzalez was the right pick, but after the draft I bought into the Forbes narrative pretty hard--three years in college and was good right away as a true freshman. 14 interceptions in the SEC in 2.5 years of starting. Early breakout and sustained good player, elite ball skills.

As we'd talk about at times on the draft thread back then, corner is a traits position. If Forbes succeeded as the PFF guys among others said at the time, he would be a unicorn -- big time outlier at that scrawny size. I think if I recall statistically, there has only been one good corner at similar size ever. He was fesity as a run defender in college but you can see him get run over at times. Shocker in the NFL with even bigger dudes he struggled with the physical aspect of the game.

If production was all about picks, the corners would be ordered in different ways predraft. Nohl Williams would be the #1 CB coming off the board if so, versus a projected 3rd-4th rounder.

Don't get me wrong Ints-picks is a factor. And heck Gonzalez had 4 picks. Gonzalez's size and speed was freakish for that spot. Dudes like him tend to succeed in the NFL. Dudes with Forbes dimensions tend to fail in the NFL. Simple as that.

But the narrative was fun, screw the size, who cares. Forbes just means picks. And hey he was the dude who responded to the playbook we sent prospective players with a note about how he's going to take us to the SB. So cool narrative. Fun narrative. But they were betting against the odds and lost again.

And look i don't put Oladejo in that class. I think he has a high floor at a minimum as a run stuffer. Forbes had the profile as a potential bust. But IMO if we are taking a roll of the dice, I'd do it in the late 2nd, not the first or also not in a trade down in the early 2nd. And am not saying they won't do it that way. Just putting it out there in advance just like I did with Forbes back then that the first round feels rich.

 

[burgold]

What's interesting is that I thought if Forbes failed if Forbes failed it would be because at his size he'd be hurt all the time or he'd be unable to tackle. If memory serves, he actually tackled pretty well even against running backs and he was relatively durable. What killed him was his coverage skills. He was always lost. For whatever reason, he didn't know where he was supposed to be or who he was supposed to guard.

It wasn't his size that ended his journey here. It was that he couldn't cover.

 

[method man]

I got to watch Schwesinger. I've spent no time on the LBs, its the only position I haven't watched.

I've watched some Oladejo and I like what I saw, need to watch more. But he has the worst pass rush win rates among the 30 or so DEs that I've compiled stats on. I know he's new to the position and the thought is he will keep growing. But on the surface, it feels like a Ron Rivera style pick if they pick him in the late first or in the early 2nd in a trade down. The PFF guys were talking about all the hype around him the other day saying they get it if its the late third or early 4th but doesn't warrant an early pick like the buzz has been. Not that I need to hear that from them. But to me their late round 2nd at the earlier for Oladejo.

Why it would feel Rivera style if it went earlier, it would feel more like they are in love with the narrative over more productive and proven players at the same position. I get that Oladejo is a great locker room guy and plays hard and is a "Commander" type of dude. But don't IMO overdraft him for that reason.

As a pure pass rusher, I would take some guys with less buzz like Gillotte and Swinson before Oladejo. Stewart, too. But lol, don't want to jinx it. Last time I made a similar point before the draft was knocking the idea of taking Forbes in the first round when the buzz started to build that we liked him more than most and I made the case that was too early.

I'll say this though I do like everything I hear about Oladejo's personality and like that he plays with oomph. And he's a good run stuffer. So even if the pass rushing chops don't develop, I don't think there is any concern about him being a bust.

As far as personality goes, I've read that Princely isn't the hottest dude. Too bad, because if he checked out on that front, he'd be another guy I'd like in the late 2nd.

I suspect at the moment if I had to guess we will wind up with one among these guys: JT, Scourton, Oladejo, Landon Jackson.

I agree on Oladejo. I don’t mind him in the 3rd but would not take him in the 1st or 2nd - just too much projection involved.

I think Schwesinger goes too high for our taste.

Medrano is very interesting. He is being underrated because he is being evaluated as a traditional LB when he is more someone that would fill Chinn’s role. He has 4.46 speed with 32” arms and is known to be a good cover player who can take RBs and TEs. He needs to get stronger and clean up missed tackles Good special teamer too. This guy is a day 3 target

Toia appears to be your classic squatty NT who can stuff the run and take on double teams but won’t offer much as a pass rusher. Day 3 target

 

[skinsinparadise]

What's interesting is that I thought if Forbes failed if Forbes failed it would be because at his size he'd be hurt all the time or he'd be unable to tackle. If memory serves, he actually tackled pretty well even against running backs and he was relatively durable. What killed him was his coverage skills. He was always lost. For whatever reason, he didn't know where he was supposed to be or who he was supposed to guard.

It wasn't his size that ended his journey here. It was that he couldn't cover.

It was both. But was even worse as a run defender. The reason i highlighted that was BOTH staffs leaked how frustrated they were about his run defense including his lack of want to as to physicality. And Rivera's staff shouldn't have been shocked by that. If I weighed 166 pounds, I'd be reluctant to tackle guys 30 plus pounds heavier than me.

PFF gave him a 28 run grade his rookie year. I don't think I've ever seen a grade that low on any player on anything. He was only slightly better than that last year.

I focus on playing against the run because that was the stuff that got leaked somehow to the beat guys in the last two years. And my thought at the time was Ron if you want a corner that can help you against the run, don't take an historical thin CB. Heck I workout. I am nothing special. But I look thicker and more muscular than Forbes and by a decent margin. If I look more like an athlete than a starting CB on our team at my age, that's a problem.

 

[skinsinparadise]

 

[The Chump Bailey]

The extra picks(s) generated would be excellent. I am hoping one of the first two picks is defense (DL or DB) and the other a RB. Would love Kaleb at 61 but I don't see him around at 61.

I agree and have to think that's AP's plan we must generate more picks and this is the right sort of draft to do just that because IMO and with some exception, chiefly safety, there's not a huge drop off in caliber of player for most positions if we wait. Just how I see this draft. For example, I'd love to trade down and find someone like Bradyn Swinson fall in our laps.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I agree and have to think that's AP's plan we must generate more picks and this is the right sort of draft to do just that because IMO and with some exception, chiefly safety, there's not a huge drop off in caliber of player for most positions if we wait. Just how I see this draft. For example, I'd love to trade down and find someone like Bradyn Swinson fall in our laps.

Me too, some of the guys we are talking about Swinson, Alfred Collins (DT) among others. Some say, pass rush win is a bigger translator to the NFL than sacks. Here are the numbers in ranking order on that front.

 

[burgold]

It was both. But was even worse as a run defender. The reason i highlighted that was BOTH staffs leaked how frustrated they were about his run defense including his lack of want to as to physicality. And Rivera's staff shouldn't have been shocked by that. If I weighed 166 pounds, I'd be reluctant to tackle guys 30 plus pounds heavier than me.

PFF gave him a 28 run grade his rookie year. I don't think I've ever seen a grade that low on any player on anything. He was only slightly better than that last year.

I focus on playing against the run because that was the stuff that got leaked somehow to the beat guys in the last two years. And my thought at the time was Ron if you want a corner that can help you against the run, don't take an historical thin CB. Heck I workout. I am nothing special. But I look thicker and more muscular than Forbes and by a decent margin. If I look more like an athlete than a starting CB on our team at my age, that's a problem.

Maybe I'm just remembering a few good hits, the exception makes the rule kind of thing.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Really like the Oladejo example of a classic Rivera overdraft. I can't understand why there have been conversations and mocks by "professionals" that have him being selected at the end of the 1st or beginning of the 2nd. When his name was being mentioned in the beginning of the draft process he was a 4th round dude. What has he done to improve to rounds...his interviews?

What is both frustrating and great is, we really don't know for certain what their real plan will be or who they really like. Love that they are tight lipped.

After all the off-season moves, it makes the DL the hardest to figure what they are really going to look for. Perhaps a big DE/Edge good in pass rush and versus the run like AP likes, a pass rush specialist, a big run stuffing NT type, a DT that can be a disruptive and perhaps move to DE at times? Or like you have suggested, do they double dip on DL in this draft. My gut is they only go with one DL (edge/DE) unless they accumulate late round picks and grab a NT later.

The PFF guys, NFL Stock Exchange had a full conversation about it in their last podcast. Not that I needed to hear it from them, since my thoughts were the same. But they hit the point well, he's a great story, and a great dude, and has some intriguing projection but the first round-2nd round talk that they hear is a bit rich. they were joking about his narratives includes having super long arms, yet his arms are in the 45% percentile for the position. Logan Paulsen loves him. I like him. Love the stories about his personality. But I love a bunch of edge guys over him. And look I could be wrong of course.

But it does fit a little the Rivera style narrative when he was here if they happen to take Oladejo early. I can just see Rivera look did you hear his story? Do you know he was a leader in the Senior Bowl. We saw it all. this dude is different. When the metrics and mocks are pushing other players at that same spot instead.

And am far from a slave to mocks. My takes don't always mirror them. But in this draft specially for edge, there are so many potential high floor players -- why throw the dice on an outlier? Not saying they will but lol I got some concerns considering all the buzz that we are hot for him.

 

[Anselmheifer]

Me too, some of the guys we are talking about Swinson, Alfred Collins (DT) among others. Some say, pass rush win is a bigger translator to the NFL than sacks. Here are the numbers in ranking order on that front.

View attachment 10815

I look at this table and wonder if I’ve been paying too little attention to Josiah Stewart.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I think that's fair. My caution (and I don't think you're saying the book is written yet) is that it's premature to judge either the evolution of a raw player or a coach's ability to coach them up after their rookie season. Raw clay takes more time to work, but if you have a good kiln, the right glazes, tools, and a kiln set at the right temperature the result can be a heckuva lot better than the oven-baked stuff or the assembly line stuff.

The benefit of the assembly line stuff is, of course, you get fewer negative surprises. You know what you will get and it will be consistently okay, good, and often satisfying. However, it's almost impossible to get a master work when working with an IKEA set. On the other hand, sometimes raw clay has impurities that make it impossible to work with and no matter what you do the thing won't shape up. I guess part of the trick is knowing when to sculpt and when to go retail.

Sure, that cuts both ways, too. That draft is going to be judged in a couple of years or so. Tough to do it now aside from making the case Jayden makes the draft, the rest don't matter. I think at a minimum they have 2 impact players out of it.

Lets take Johnny Newton, he can turn out great and or a bust or just a guy, there is enough there for either narrative. I highlight Sinnott because he's one of two picks that Peters made that went against most (not all) mock draft-scout buzz. Most had him in the third. The other one was McCaffrey, taken in the third, most had him in the 5th, some even the 6th.

And again, am not married to mocks or even the leaks from scouts on McGinn's reports among other places. Both players went a bit higher than expected. That's fine. I always give the benefit of the doubt to new regimes with their picks initially. And I'll do that with Peters for sure since he was the dude I actually wanted as GM.

But it is ironic that both Sinnott and McCaffrey were given less chances not more as the season progressed. That's not a great portent for the future. But agree its far from a deal breaker where am throwing in the towel.

Taking Oladejo in the first would be another go against the grain pick if it happened. And heck am fine with going against the grain, but i don't give someone carte blanche forgiveness if they end up wrong. If Rivera wants to be funky and go with Forbes over Gonzalez, once its done, I'll take the ride. Maybe he does see things that others don't. But when the player they skip becomes a stud and their player is a bust. That's a big miss.

Ditto saying yeah by their actions we just aren't sold on Kyle Hamilton, JOK, Darrisaw, etc like others are -- we see the beauty in these players, instead. Then that's cool. I trust it once its done and will take that ride. But if that ride goes off the rails then I am going to criticize.

As to Oladejo, I think he's a solid pass rusher, there are plenty in this class better than him on that front. I think worse case, he's a solid player. But its not really betting on physical upside. He's not really a physical freak. His arms are 33 and change, sub 10 inch hands. He wouldn't run the 40 which I don't take a good sign. So I think the projection with him is he's new at edge so his pass rushing arsenal can develop some more. And he's so high character and energy that he's a force multiplier. I am Ok with all of that. But to me its late 2nd round at the earliest for me on him.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I look at this table and wonder if I’ve been paying too little attention to Josiah Stewart.

I've talked about him some here. He's perfect for what the team needs. Some juice off the edge. The knock is his length and can he hold up against the run. But I don't care, bring him on on third down passing situations. Though per the tweet below it does help to paly next to those monster tackles. But I'd roll the dice.

 

[The Chump Bailey]

I look at this table and wonder if I’ve been paying too little attention to Josiah Stewart.

Really like him too. High success rate rushing the passer I was a bit too zealous in my appeal for him though at one point claiming as a pure pass rusher he was better than Green and Pierce. That's a bad take after looking at Green again but I'd still take him over Pierce because Stewart knows how to use his hands and has a plan other than just relying on speed that Pierce does, IMO.

 

[RWJ]

Yep, you zeroed in on this and posted about it before, SIP. Thanks.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Yep, you zeroed in on this and posted about it before, SIP. Thanks.

Yeah earlier in this process I mentioned multiple meetings. ANY multiple meetings. But I heard since, multiple times, its not any multiple meetings but the combine has to be one of them.

Granted it doesn't have to be the same this year but that's apparently how it went down last year. So we should study the heck out of who they met at the combine.

 

[RWJ]

Yeah earlier in this process I mentioned multiple meetings. ANY multiple meetings. But I heard since, multiple times, its not any multiple meetings but the combine has to be one of them.

Granted it doesn't have to be the same this year but that's apparently how it went down last year. So we should study the heck out of who they met at the combine.

Here are all the players via Ken.Johannesen they have met with. Of all the players and selecting who I think AP picks and fits, guesstimating and crunching into our draft w/a tradedown this is who I am thinking with an "*" next to their names.

Note: Woody Marks because Ekeler is a huge risk due to multiple concussions and two last year. I truly believe one of the Ks will drafted. This is all guessing and speculating. Some of these playes I like a lot (i.e., Marks, Higgins & Bowman)

*Jayden Higgins, WR, Iowa State
Jaylin Noel, WR, Iowa State
*Wyatt Milum, OT, West Virginia
Jordan James, RB, Oregon
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
*Woody Marks, RB, Southern California
Josh Conerly Jr., OT, Oregon
Trey Amos, CB, Ole Miss
Quincy Riley, CB, Louisville
*Billy Bowman Jr., S, Oklahoma
*Eugene Asante, LB, Auburn
Kyle Kennard, DE/Edge, South Carolina
*Landon Jackson, DE/Edge, Arkansas
J.T. Tuimoloau, DE/Edge, Ohio State
*Andres Borregales, K, Miami
or
*Ryan Fitzgerald, K, Florida State

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

agree generally. But it’s not always easy.

Agree. I’d say it’s rarely easy. I’ve always said there is a component of blind luck involved.

I’ve been involved in hiring young adults out of college for 25 years. Clearly in a different field. But you can do all the interviews you want, look at grades, transcripts, prior work experience, etc. and sometimes you just get it wrong. Something about the kid doesn’t materialize the way you expect. You could think the candidate is can’t miss, and they still miss by a mile. In the end, there is no way to simulate “life” when it comes to new college graduates.

Or vice versa. You pass on a kid because of “reasons” or you take a flyer on a kid you don’t think is going to pan out and then they end up taking over the world.

There is a component of luck to the draft you just can’t get around.

 

[Anselmheifer]

Here are all the players via Ken.Johannesen they have met with. Of all the players and selecting who I think AP picks and fits, guesstimating and crunching into our draft w/a tradedown this is who I am thinking with an "*" next to their names.

Note: Woody Marks because Ekeler is a huge risk due to multiple concussions and two last year. I truly believe one of the Ks will drafted. This is all guessing and speculating. Some of these playes I like a lot (i.e., Marks, Higgins & Bowman)

*Jayden Higgins, WR, Iowa State
Jaylin Noel, WR, Iowa State
*Wyatt Milum, OT, West Virginia
Jordan James, RB, Oregon
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
*Woody Marks, RB, Southern California
Josh Conerly Jr., OT, Oregon
Trey Amos, CB, Ole Miss
Quincy Riley, CB, Louisville
*Billy Bowman Jr., S, Oklahoma
*Eugene Asante, LB, Auburn
Kyle Kennard, DE/Edge, South Carolina
*Landon Jackson, DE/Edge, Arkansas
J.T. Tuimoloau, DE/Edge, Ohio State
*Andres Borregales, K, Miami
or
*Ryan Fitzgerald, K, Florida State

Were those combine meetings?

I wonder how many players it’s possible/practical to meet with at the combine.

 

[DWinzit]

Does I seem odd that there aren't any DT or IOL on RWJ s list above?

 

[DWinzit]

As far as personality goes, I've read that Princely isn't the hottest dude. Too bad, because if he checked out on that front, he'd be another guy I'd like in the late 2nd.

This is disappointing, I hadn't heard or read anything negative about his personal side