Redskins Recon - Jay Gruden to the Redskins-Views from the opposition-and more

[SkinsFTW]

Last place schedule is a difference of 2 games. And when you break it down what place you wound up in has little to do with how hard your opponents are (there's too much change year over year.) Just go look at who had first place, 2nd, 3rd, and last in our division this year and who got matched up against who.

Yeah thats true the schedule doesn't necessarily change much but compare Andy Reid going 11-5 from 2-14 in that division while totally changing the offense and QB, and you can't say you'd think we are going in the right direction if we aren't better than 8-8 next year in this division that we came close to sweeping last year but went 0-6 in this year with Shanahan coaching the team DOWN the whole year. We are still going to run the WCO with a franchise QB, have our LT, RB, WR1 and maybe TE too if he comes back 100%.

This roster didn't go 10-6 last year by accident either and we have FA money now. If Gruden is legit we should expect 10-6 or better in 14. If they had gone after Wade Phillips I'd be ready to declare that we should compete for the NFC.

 

[Bulldog]

I don't think things are that simple.

Reid went out and acquired a veteran qb to go with pro bowlers Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe on offense. He also had the first pick and took Eric Fisher to solidify LT. The Chiefs line otherwise is pretty solid.

On defense KC had Poe, Houston and Hali in the front seven and another pro bowler in Eric Berry in the secondary.

On special teams they had one of the best returners in the league in McCluster.

So, I think Reid started out with better talent that was sprinkled throughout the roster.

The Redskins have some good players but they are clustered on offense, and except for Williams, are all skill players and younger ones for the most part.

On defense we don't have an anchor on the DL, at LB or in the secondary.

Our punting and special teams were historically bad.

I would be wary of putting too many expectations on immediate success at the level equating to 'better than 10-6'.

Recall that is what Shanahan tried to do in 2010 by trading for McNabb and Jamaal Brown.

With a 40-50% turnover I don't think you short circuit the building process.

 

[DieselPwr44]

Possibly, but it is the playoffs AKA Peytons Kryptonite.

Didn't San Diego hold the Broncos to under 30 in all three contests this year?

 

[SkinsFTW]

I don't think things are that simple.

Reid went out and acquired a veteran qb to go with pro bowlers Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe on offense. He also had the first pick and took Eric Fisher to solidify LT. The Chiefs line otherwise is pretty solid.

On defense KC had Poe, Houston and Hali in the front seven and another pro bowler in Eric Berry in the secondary.

On special teams they had one of the best returners in the league in McCluster.

So, I think Reid started out with better talent that was sprinkled throughout the roster.

I didn't expect anybody to argue that Alex Smith was better than RG3 or that a team that went 10-6 last year shouldn't be able to come close to matching what a 2-14 team did with what everybody is proclaiming is a better head coach in the NFL's weakest division. Can't we go out and get the right players like Reid did for his 2-14 KC team? Our problem in 13 was coaching on all 3 phases. We have cap space, Allen is the man, Gruden kicks ass, we have our LT already, we have a 1600 yard RB, a 1400 yard WR, both those guys are franchise record holders, RG3 is a franchise QB, Kerrigan won't be hurt next year, we went 10-6 without Rak or Davis but we can resign Rak or a replacement, Hall or get that dude from NE, grab a FS in FA, of course we are stuck with Haslett so lets start hedging bets. OK 6-10 it is then.

I'm not buying that. If Gruden is the real deal we go 10-6 or better next year. I don't wanna hear about Haslett being why we give up 30 a game next year when Wade Phillips (who took Houstons 30th ranked D and it was 2nd his first year) or hell any decent coach out there that is available is better than Haslett. Get it done. We were 10-6 in 12 and NFCE sucks. We beat the SB winner in 12. We hung with Denver for 3 with Shanahan coaching down the team this year, beat the Chargers and Bears, choked away wins to Detroit, Dallas, Minn, Atl, and NYG because Shanahan is a buffoon and Haslett was his chosen minion. Get rid of THAT DUDE and win some football games next year. I don't want to be hearing about Haslett and his prevent when we are up 24-10 to Dallas to start the 4th and we lose next year. Romo is the one who is supposed to do that crap.

 

[servumtuum]

" only scored 10 points on the Chargers awful defense"

The Broncos were averaging 39 points per game during the regular season and only scored 24 yesterday against SD.

Care to re-evaluate the measuring stick for Gruden?

I am sure Cincinnati would have scored a few more points with Peyton Manning at qb.

The Chargers, during the regular season had the 11th fewest points per game scored against them at 21.8.

Apparently not being in the top ten at keeping your opponents from scoring equates to "awful defense".

Or something.

I still don't understand why all these people keep saying Andy Dalton hasn't improved much.

2011: 3398 yards, 20TDs, 58%, 6.6 ypa, 80.4 rating
2012: 3669 yards, 27TDs, 62%, 6.9 ypa, 87.4 rating
2013: 4293 yards, 33TDs, 61%, 7.3 ypa, 88.8 rating

Interceptions have gone up, but those are so random, its hard to use them as a measuring stick. Griffin had 5 his rookie year and 7,472 this year. I'm sure the real number is somewhere in the middle.

You want the short form Lanky?


Because they're f**king stupid, that's why.




BTW, you want another improvement measure for Dalton?

This is the percentage of his passes that result in first downs.

2011-30.2%
2012-32.4%
2013-34.8%




I don't edit anything I find in a Recon for either grammar or accuracy.

Trying to would be both exhausting and depressing.



I have had a sense since I posted this Recon that I might have somehow thrown a major wet blanket of "doom and gloom" over the place. I could be wrong-in fact I hope I am. If you really look at what was said and parse the statements you'll see how many of them are aimed not at Jay G. but at the Redskins organization, Dan Snyder, RGIII, and a lot of the ones about Jay G. concentrate solely on the lack of playoff success and there were positive vibes popping up here and there. (The Dallas fans kind of surprised me with their take on things). I'm not saying that there isn't some merit to the arguments-there are points mentioned that should be taken into consideration-hell, they've been made by members here in discussions too and the similarities are simply a function of being an NFL fan.

BGO members are above average as far as the intelligence shown by their posts anyway-and that's not blind homerism talking that's from someone who reads through scores of NFL team fan sites every season I seriously mean this.

So, keep that in mind.


HTTR.

 

[Fear The Spear]

Serv, do the people you Recon, ever Recon your Reconning of them ?

 

[Goaldeje]

You'd like to think so, wouldn't you!?!

 

[servumtuum]

Serv, do the people you Recon, ever Recon your Reconning of them ?

If they they wanted to it would entail finding out what "guest" I am and what I'm doing there besides just reading stuff.

In other words, highly unlikely.



I wouldn't care at any rate.

 

[McD5]

tr1, I say this as a friend. Honestly, I feel like I did two years ago, when Pierre Garcon was signed.

I can, without any question, guarantee two things:

1. Pierre Garcon is the best WR we've had in 15 years.

2. Jay Gruden is the best HC we've had in 15-30 years. Yes, he is that great.

Get excited. This is exactly the person you've been praying for.

And F Dan, F the media, F RG3's father and his socks.

If you're really, really lucky, occasionally one of the greats will emerge. He's here.

 

[Henry]

I'm not nearly as belligerently angry at the team and the fans as SkinsFTW is, but I was going to post this somewhere and he basically beat me to it.

With a healthy Girffin under center we should expect to win at least 8 games next season. We are set at all of the skill positions on offense. All of them. We need a #2 WR and some depth but we have a QB, RB, #1 WR, TE, LT, FB ... we have depth at RB and QB. Linemen are cheap and easy to find. If we find a tackle and a guard and maybe an average WR that should hold us over until next year. And we should be a top ten offense. Easily.

There is no way, no way that our special teams should be as bad next year. Even with the exact same team we must se a marked improvement over the epic disaster that was the 2013 Redskins special teams unit.

Defense will probably continue to suck. But it sucked in 2012 and we won ten. We should expect eight.

If we go into double digit losses next year I will be very concerned. We should all be.

 

[McD5]

you might have gotten most of that away if you didnt say 30 years. that, my overreaching friend, is Gibbs I era. He is considered one of the greatest all time...in the NFL. Gruden is a rookie walking in to an organization still wet behind the ears.

Gibbs is the greatest of all time.

Let's check back in about three years and see where Jay Gruden ranks. You'll be happy. That, I promise.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

If Gruden wins 100 superbowls, we can safely say he's better than Gibbs. For one, he'd be almost 150 years old, setting the age record by far. Plus, nobody has ever done better than a three-peat (I think), so a 100-peat would also be remarkable.



Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatal

 

[DieselPwr44]

100 Superbowl rings and the Eagles still wouldn't have one.

 

[SkinsFTW]

I'm not nearly as belligerently angry at the team and the fans as SkinsFTW is, but I was going to post this somewhere and he basically beat me to it.

I'm not mad at anybody its just hard to tell on the internet I guess. I'm just not going to buy into any hype before FA+Draft at a minimum, especially considering they are already setting up Haslett as next years scapegoat, IMO.

I do find it interesting that most everybody automatically buying into the Gruden hype already have lower expectations than I do though. This team really was coached down by Shanahan in 13 after going 10-6 with the same roster in 12, we all must remember not outscoring our own defense through 6 games, then losing the last 8. I'd say that team was as consistent as a soup sandwich. Gruden should easily win 9-10 next year if he is in fact legit. Hell, we blew enough 4th quarter leads this year to have gone 8-8 if we'd just held onto them.

Who would predict we'd not win 10 games with 2012's offense +Reed at TE, 30Mil in Allen's FA signings, and Wade Phillips as our DC next year? I'd bet on 12 myself and if we had one of those lucky break years it could be 14. Instead we're going to watch Haslett continue to cause us to underrate the talent we do have on defense and pretend to believe Gruden is the man with the plan while expecting not alot more than Shanahans worst year of coaching in his 30+ years.

It doesn't even have to be Wade Phillips. He may not even accept some crazy DS contract, but there has to be a great DL/LB coach on one of 32 teams, or an NCAA DC who can do better than the 25-32 ranked D we will get from Haslett. I guarantee that some other team will hire a new DC this year that is top 15 next year. Every year some team does it. Last year Rob Ryan took a D from 32nd to 4th, Phillips a few years ago in Houston 30th to 2nd and there's one of those every year.

Here's a name i pulled out of nowhere just by looking at Profootballreference:

Brian VanGorder

He took over Mike Zimmer's Atlanta Falcons defense in 2008. Zimmer is now a hot HC candidate. He sucked in Atlanta though, his defense was ranked 29th in 07. From 2008-2011 VanGorder had their defense ranked 11-14-5-18 then got fired I guess. Now Mike Nolan is their coach and they were ranked 27th last year. VanGorder is Rex Ryans LB coach now. I wonder if he's better than Haslett at coaching a 3-4 defense? I'd be willing to bet he will be for some team eventually.

(OOPS, nevermind. I just did my homework and it seems that the Redskins missed their shot at VanGorder. He was just hired today or yesterday by Notre Dame as their new Defensive Coordinator)

You snooze, you lose.

 

[Nobody]

I like how people repeatedly mentioned that we have absolutely no receivers. I wasn't aware that 113 receptions for 1,346 yards was such a bad number. Idiots.

 

[CounterTrey]

2) We have the same GM we've had during the last 4 years, who though may not have had a traditional GM role, is still responsible for the hiring of the last coach and the fiasco he left in his wake.

I keep seeing this but it's incorrect and revisionist history. Allen came after Shanahan, not vice versa. IN fact IIRC I seem to remember reading a few weeks ago that Allen was never fully convinced Shanahan was right for the job in D.C.

 

[Henry]

I keep seeing this but it's incorrect and revisionist history. Allen came after Shanahan, not vice versa. IN fact IIRC I seem to remember reading a few weeks ago that Allen was never fully convinced Shanahan was right for the job in D.C.

I'm pretty sure Allen was hired first. He was the one who came out and announced Shanahan as the new coach. Remember what a huge deal it was that Snyder wasn't actually up at the podium for once?

That said, I'm also pretty sure it was commonly believed that Allen was hired in order to lure Shanahan here, because Allen was Shanahan's first choice to be 'his' GM.

EDIT: Here you go.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4750356

Allen barely had time to get used to wearing his burgundy and gold tie before he was asked about the team's coaching situation. The names of Jon Gruden -- with whom Allen worked in both Oakland and Tampa Bay -- and Mike Shanahan were raised during his introductory news conference.

Allen responded that he had only just had his first meeting with the current coach, Jim Zorn. Zorn's job status is tenuous with the record at 4-9 and three games to play. The Redskins host the rival Giants on Monday night.

"Jim Zorn is our coach," Allen said. "Give us some time to see how our relationship develops."

It's uncertain how much leeway Allen will have to make the final call about the coach or the roster. Neither he nor Snyder would give details of their working agreement, but Snyder indicated that Allen will have more autonomy than some of the owner's previous front office hires.

There's also a chance a decision on a coach has already been made. Allen worked nine years in the Raiders' front office and five years in Tampa Bay, overseeing Gruden's teams at both places.

Allen and Gruden were fired by the Buccaneers on the same day in January, and Gruden is now an analyst on "Monday Night Football." Former Broncos coach Shanahan has also been linked to the Redskins job.

 

[CounterTrey]

O.K. well there ya go! I guess it was me revising history.

 

[Henry]

I do find it interesting that most everybody automatically buying into the Gruden hype already have lower expectations than I do though. This team really was coached down by Shanahan in 13 after going 10-6 with the same roster in 12, we all must remember not outscoring our own defense through 6 games, then losing the last 8. I'd say that team was as consistent as a soup sandwich. Gruden should easily win 9-10 next year if he is in fact legit. Hell, we blew enough 4th quarter leads this year to have gone 8-8 if we'd just held onto them.

Oh I agree. With an injured Griffin this team still should have gone 8-8. It was obvious that Shanahan lost the team halfway through the season. That's why he was fired.

Who would predict we'd not win 10 games with 2012's offense +Reed at TE, 30Mil in Allen's FA signings, and Wade Phillips as our DC next year? I'd bet on 12 myself and if we had one of those lucky break years it could be 14. Instead we're going to watch Haslett continue to cause us to underrate the talent we do have on defense and pretend to believe Gruden is the man with the plan while expecting not alot more than Shanahans worst year of coaching in his 30+ years.

We had a 10-win team in 2012. While I don't think we are considerably worse talent-wise now, I don't think it's fair to expect us to be considerably better during Gruden's first season. I will give him at least that much leeway. So I said 'at least' eight because we should be a ten-win team this year and sometimes a ten-win team gets some bad bounces. Accounting for that, we get 'at least eight.'

It doesn't even have to be Wade Phillips. He may not even accept some crazy DS contract, but there has to be a great DL/LB coach on one of 32 teams, or an NCAA DC who can do better than the 25-32 ranked D we will get from Haslett. I guarantee that some other team will hire a new DC this year that is top 15 next year. Every year some team does it. Last year Rob Ryan took a D from 32nd to 4th, Phillips a few years ago in Houston 30th to 2nd and there's one of those every year.

The only reason I'd expect us to keep Haslett would be because he really was hamstrung by that Evil Tyrant Shanahan and given free reign over the defense he'll get it to play up to the level it did at the end of 2012. If that's not really why he's been retained (if he is retained), we'll know real quick.

But yeah. We should all be expecting an Eagles/Saints/Chiefs-like turnaround. Contrary to what I've read at times we do not need a full rebuild here. One side of the ball is pretty much set. A 4 or 5 win season should be a huge red flag.

 

[Henry]

O.K. well there ya go! I guess it was me revising history.

Yeah, sorry about that.

But I do agree with your point that Allen was Shanahan's guy. Just my personal opinion but I think Allen was brought in to make sure we could lock down Shanahan as soon as the season ended. I don't think there was any doubt we were targetting Shanahan, or that Allen had any say on who the next coach was going to be once Zorn was shown the door.