QB or not QB

SilentThreat said:
Absolutely, how much of that is 'chance', poor talent evaluation, or bad fit, and how much of that is over drafting? I'm convinced that there is an element of that with these guys. We all see them as 'those are the odds' and I think teams over-value some guys out of desperation. That if they had a franchise QB on the roster, and they weren't 'looking' for one, they wouldn't grade these guys near as high.... that their grades aren't just on a curve, they're actually biased and swayed by the fact that they need a QB.
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Exactly. I'm guessing that the Top 32 of the Big Board in KC, Buffalo, and Houston looks different than it does in Chicago, Washington, New England, Las Vegas, Denver, and Minnesota.
 
As it did for some teams when Aaron Rodgers slid to #24 and Mahomes fell to #10.

You wonder what some of the teams that passed on these players were valuing and thinking were most important to address at the time.
 
If they reach for jj at 2 and he fails the entire front office and staff will be gone in 3-4 years. If they take maye or jayden and they fail it wont be a complete house cleaning
 
tomwvr said:
If they reach for jj at 2 and he fails the entire front office and staff will be gone in 3-4 years. If they take maye or jayden and they fail it wont be a complete house cleaning
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I disagree. Whoever they take at 2, if he fails, they will probably all be out. They would have to have built a really strong team at every other position to keep their jobs, regardless of who they take at #2. It doesn’t matter which QB, a failure will be a failure.

Likewise a success would be a success. They could take Penix or Nix at 2 and if he works out and is the best QB in the draft class, then the front office is all run by geniuses.

I’ll use the 2020 draft as the perfect example. Chase Young was the safest pick at #2. Almost every expert had him as the best overall player in the draft. I’d be shocked if most teams didn’t have him at the top of their draft boards. This team and any other team that passed on him (except Cincy at 1), was going to be deemed as stupid for passing on the sure thing. Yet by year 4, Young was traded out of town and the whole entire operation that picked him were out of jobs. It doesn’t matter where the pick was ranked or what grade it got or who thinks they should have picked a guy at that spot. All that matters is if the guy succeeds. If he does, the pre draft rankings mean nothing. If he doesn’t, they probably mean even less, but I guess you can tout that Mel Kiper gave you an A+ post draft grade.

It’s about identifying the right guy to fit your team and developing that guys. Getting a fresh start from ownership on down gives me hope they can find the right guy and develop him. Whoever it turns out to be, I’ll be rooting hard for him and I expect the front office will as well because this is their rebuild and their team to model how they see fit.
 
See I think if the team drafts a non "expert" consensus pic at the 2nd and he fails the entire staff is gone. If they pick a consensus pick and fail the coaching staff will be gone and the front office could survive
 
I haven’t kept up, apologies if already discussed. Just a random thought in the qb discussion.

But I think we’re seeing a funny phenomenon with people in real time right now.

People get excited, discuss something to death, and eventually get burned out on it. But they crave that excitement. So they look for a new topic and bring that excitement to it hoping to regenerate what they were doing before

After months of talking about Williams Daniels and may, and which team will take which, reading reports and watching highlights… I think people reached boredom with it and now you’re seeing the same conversations about the tier 2 people.

That applies to fans, media, and football people in football orgs as well.

Is there really anything to learn about the tier 1 guys that we don’t already know? Probably not. But hey, these tier 2 guys still have lots to discuss!

And suddenly there’s people talking about how a tier 2 guy is actually probably better than a tier 1 guy, and on and on we go.

My money would be on the original analysis is more likely to be correct. You got 3 tier 1 guys and a couple tier 2 guys.
 
Also - this notion that if they whiff on #2 they’ll all be fired seems ridiculous for a variety of reasons.

First - judging someone on one draft pick seems incredibly foolish. Orgs miss on picks all the time. SF missed on several while Peter’s was there… but they miss all the time. It’s a crap shoot on how people will handle the transition, and no one player is solely responsible for the outcome - it’s a team sport and there’s a lot of people that have to do a good job for a QB to be successful, especially one with no NFL experience.

I look at drafts the same way I look at gambling. Being in that 55-60% win rate range is a reasonable expectation. When someone tells you they’re in 75-80% win rate range, they’re lying.

On top of that there is absolutely nothing about how Josh Harris has (supposedly) handled taking of the team so far, that would even remotely suggest he would clean house because his new staff of people that have never worked together before missed on 1 specific pick.

In fact - it seems exactly what Snyder would be capable of doing. Impulsive vindictive move with no grounds in reality, and probably sets the org back by doing it.
 
The entire media has settled that Daniels is the 100% clear cut obvious choice.

If he's the pick, I am fine with that. He's a terrific prospect.

I'm rooting for Maye just so all the media idiots are dead wrong. And then I'm rooting for the Vikings to trade up to #3 and take McCarthy. Then Arizona to take Harrison Jr. And Daniels, the presumptive #2 pick to end up at least at 5. I'd love it if both the Chargers and Giants passed and didn't trade and take tackles, throwing Daniels into a slide which might land him in the teens to the Raiders. That would be epic.

That's what I want. I know I'm not going to get all of it. But a guy can dream.

Chaos. I want complete chaos. I want Mel Kiper's hair to come off his head.

(I'd be happy with Daniels though. But my personal beef with the entire draftnik industrial complex would LOVE for them to be loud wrong.)
 
We will not know who is wrong for a couple of years.

If Daniels is the selection, I will cross my fingers & toes and hope for the very best. If he is not, I favor McCarthy over Maye by a wide margin. He is everything I loved about Heinicke…on steroids.

If Maye and McCarthy are still available at #3, I expect New England to take whichever one Robert Kraft feels is his next son. 😉
 
For the ‘way too early 2025 draft thread’…

Watch out for that big LSU TE Mason Taylor. Son of NFL HOFer Jason Taylor. Nephew of NFL HOFer Zack Thomas.
 
Thanks for sharing Mark. Daniels is definitely a 'lead by play' guy. I don't see him being a traditional leader, at least not at this age - maybe he grows into that. But as far as being a guy who can fearlessly put an offense on his back and lead them to win on the field, I think he's got that in bunches.
 
It's weird. I think Daniels has both the lowest and highest bust potential simultaneously. I think because he's so much older and has played so many more games there are more knowns about him so that lessens the bust potential in terms of play, however, there is still that high bust potential due to injury. Maybe that's all in my head, but I can't shake the worry.
 
I have and have always had that same concern. If he were bigger boned he would be my slam dunk favorite.

The problem is his capacity to add weight. Without becoming a pseudo bodybuilder, which would not be advisable at his position, it’s going to be a very tough task for him to gain even 10lbs of good quality weight.
 
I wouldn't worry about the age on Daniels or Penix at 24.

Quarterbacks have the longest careers by position. Often NFL passers don't reach their prime until they are in their late 20's to early 30's.

If Daniels comes in here and lives up to his potential over an NFL career he could still be with us for 12-13 years.

That's longer than Billy Kilmer, Joe Theismann, Mark Rypien or any of the quarterbacks we have had going back to Jurgensen.
 
Former GM: He has accuracy you can’t teach and is only scratching the surface with his upside while he physically matures. Wait for years two and three. If he progresses, he can end up like Troy Aikman.
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theathletic.com

NFL executives, scouts rank draft's top QBs: 'He scares the hell out of me'

Nearly 20 sources around the league gave their thoughts on the top passers in this year's draft class.
theathletic.com theathletic.com
From the Athletic for those with a subscription. High level summary. They interviewed 17 different people across the NFL and asked them to rank the QBs using a 5-3-2-1 scoring system. The Group
  • Two active general managers
  • Three personnel executives
  • Three scouts
  • One assistant/QBs coach
  • Three former general managers
  • One ex-head coach
  • Four former players-turned-analysts, including two ex-quarterbacks

Caleb by far in first with 78 points. Daniels in 2nd with 50 and 3 first place votes. Maye in third with 24 points. McCarthy with 23 and Penix with 8.

Basic comparison between Daniels and Maye is that Daniels is ready to play now and many thought Maye would need a year to watch and work on some mechanics.

Daniels
Assistant coach: Daniels is so good. … He is so much better than Maye and McCarthy. It’s not even close. Daniels can play NFL football right now.

Scout 2: Jayden probably made more progress than any quarterback coming out in the last five or six years. He can anticipate, make all the throws and is an explosive athlete. (As a scrambler), he’s not Lamar Jackson or Michael Vick. His ability to process (pre-snap) has improved as a passer, which is hard to do in one year. We know he started working with (virtual reality) this season. Got those VR reps, and that’s when he took off.


Scout 1: High upside but has a ton of room (to grow). It will take a couple of years, and the offense has to be tailored (to him). It’s going to be some wow but some ugly (plays). A lot like Justin Fields.

Former head coach: Jayden is QB2. He can start immediately, but he better learn to protect himself or he’ll be in the cold tub often.

Personnel executive 1: He could end up being the best one. Good athlete and arm talent. I think he sees it and can process. Big drop-off after him and Williams.
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Maye
Current GM: People are going to pick Maye apart. If he ends up being the best of the group, it won’t shock me. He is made of the right stuff.

Simms: If you watch 20 throws, you’ll see good throws. Then … the ball is all over the place. The decision-making can be all over the place, and the pocket presence is all over the place, let alone some mechanical flaws in how he throws the football. It (was) confirmed to me in his pro day, (which) was underwhelming. … He’s got all the size. He’s pretty athletic when he runs. I always hear (Maye is) like Justin Herbert coming out or Josh Allen, and my brain wants to explode.


Scout 1: Maye reminds me a lot of Herbert.

Assistant coach: Maye is Herbert light. Take everything Herbert does and make it less. They’ll be compared (because of the prototype size), but there’s no comparison. I like Maye, but when I see the amount of work it will take to have him reach his potential, we’ll be fired first.

Personnel executive 1: He scares the hell out of me. Longer thrower with a big arm but not quick release. Nothing feels like it happens in rhythm, and accuracy is average. Needs a year on the bench.
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The comps to Josh Allen to me are not that far off. Allen came in as a very raw prospect. He played in a conference with questionable competition and had accuracy issues on some basic throws that are staples in the NFL.

But working hard he really ascended in his second/third seasons in the NFL and became a player that exceeded most expectations.

Buffalo also gave him the time to come in and develop. They weren't looking for an instant savior to validate them.

That's important. This league is about more than TODAY, at least if you want to be successful over the long-term like NE, PITT, GB and KC have been.
 
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