Most of the nimrods who evaluate draft picks are not trying to be right. They're trying to be interesting. Because there is literally NO NEW INFORMATION for about 4 months between the end of January to the draft except combine workouts and pro-days. And none of the top prospects do anything at the combine.
So they have to fill air with something.
I have long thought Mel goes the opposite way on certain picks just so that he can yell and scream about it for months with other people, and then criticize the pick when it's made. And given half the picks don't work out anyway, he's right at least half the time. Also, Mel should be in the HOF for being a revolutionary and basically inventing the draft coverage we have now. NOT for ever being right on anything. Hell, his most famous diatribe, when he went after the colts for picking a LB, was because he was in the tank for Trent Freaking Dilfer. Who, yes, I know, has a SB ring because he did a fantastic job turning around and handing the ball off and relying on one of the top 3 defenses of all time. But he wasn't THAT good. Bill Tobin, in response to Mel, said "Who is Mel Kiper anyway?" The answer, Bill, is a mad genius who got under your skin. (But he wasn't right.)
Chris Simms is one of my least favorites. I have a vendetta against Thor Nystrom. He's my nemesis, and if I ever see him on the street I will cast him an evil scowl. (that's about as far as my vengeance goes.)
None of these guys are trying to get anything right.
I do think, btw, there is an off chance Daniels falls like a rock in the draft. How far? Not sure. And I think the media is going to lose it's mind. They have group-thought themselves into him possibly being a candidate for the #1 overall pick. But Daniels has to be presented as a run threat in order to be successful because he does not have a top 15 NFL arm. He can hit fades, but he can't drive balls into small windows down field. The way you counter that is you present the QB as a run threat to draw defenders up to make windows bigger. He probably gets 10 carries a game, either on designed runs or scrambles.
That's 170 runs in a season. At 6-4, 200lbs. I think the NFL is going to see that as "eeeeekkkkk."
So there is a world where the Bears take Williams, we take Maye, and the Vikings trade up to #3 to take McCarthy. (Who I think is overrated, but might be the safer pick, and certainly would be safer for them where they are located.)
Arizona stays put and takes Marvin Harrison Jr.
The Chargers aren't taking a QB. They could just sit pat and take the best tackle on the board.
All of a sudden, Daniels is at 6. I don't think he slips past that.
I don't THINK that will happen, but it's very possible. The injury risk for a small dual-threat QB is very high.
What I think is going to happen is Williams, Maye, Daniels (to somebody, probably the Patriots), Harrison Jr., Tackle, McCarthy to somebody, probably the Vikings.
And yeah, I REALLY think we're taking Maye. I think there is a lot of Daniels/McCarthy noise, but I think it's just that, noise. I think the pick is Maye, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's been definitively Maye from day 1.
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