QB or not QB

Bulldog said:
I am wondering if Minnesota packages Jefferson and picks to move up for qb.

Sam Darnold is a backup at this point.
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I would take Jefferson, the 11th pick, and next years 1 for the number 2 pick. That’s similar to the deal the Panthers made last year, except they also got a 2nd rounder. So maybe a 2nd rounder or 3rd rounder would be added. Number 2 is not number 1, but dropping to the 11th is also not dropping to 9th like Carolina did.
 
Rent Jefferson for 1 year at nearly $20m and let him become a UFA in ‘25 or extend him @ $30 AAV?

No, thanks.
 
I was only mentioning Minnesota as now being another team that may have an interest in moving up while we now see Atlanta staying at #8 and likely taking an offensive lineman to block for Kirk or a defensive player.
 
Kel Varnsen said:
I would take Jefferson, the 11th pick, and next years 1 for the number 2 pick. That’s similar to the deal the Panthers made last year, except they also got a 2nd rounder. So maybe a 2nd rounder or 3rd rounder would be added. Number 2 is not number 1, but dropping to the 11th is also not dropping to 9th like Carolina did.
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Not a terrible deal tbf; Jefferson is a game changer. Only caveat if you will is that imo that would mean gonna roll with Howell for another season to see what he has which would be fair enough I suppose; however,can't see any of the better QB's falling that far. McCarthy maybe, but not really that high on him.
 
According to the draft analysts I heard yesterday the word is McCarthy has shot up into the top 10 and won't be around in the teens or twenties where he was slated to go a few weeks ago.

So, it looks like any team that wants to move up to #2 or #3 to take a quarterback is really going to have to offer a big haul as Washington or New England would be looking at Bo Nix and Michael Penix as late first to early second rounders.

That's especially the case with Minnesota. Their #12 pick doesn't look like it's high enough to grab McCarthy and it's also too late to select Alt or the other franchise LT or WR in this draft.

Those are our positions of real need.

Jefferson is a great player. But Washington would be taking on a guy you have to play megabucks to almost right away. You don't get much of the rookie deal to get maximum production at a value cost.

What I want is the opportunity to get the production of a CeeDee Lamb on that rookie deal for $1.3M a year for 4 years before having to pay megabucks.

Seems as if the Titans at #7 or the Bears with their second pick at #9 are possibilities to move down and get the pick to still acquire a QB or franchise LT.

I am not certain the Titans public comments about going with Will Levis are necessarily set in stone. You never know with this organization as the GM and owner sometime say contradictory things.

For Chicago, that #2 pick could give them the opportunity to put Marvin Harrison Jr. on the field with Caleb Williams.
 
As much time as I have spent on the top two rated QBs (behind Williams), my overall position is that both give me serious pause as I see flaws and weaknesses that leave me seeing both as 50/50 hit/miss prospects. And that is the current consensus top two, it goes downhill from there.

Add to that that next year’s QB class is currently expected to be at the same level as the Pickett, Ridder, Willis class.

What to do, what to do?
 
Chris said:
As much time as I have spent on the top two rated QBs (behind Williams), my overall position is that both give me serious pause as I see flaws and weaknesses that leave me seeing both as 50/50 hit/miss prospects. And that is the current consensus top two, it goes downhill from there.

Add to that that next year’s QB class is currently expected to be at the same level as the Pickett, Ridder, Willis class.

What to do, what to do?
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That sounds like you have to take your swing this year unless in analyzing the tape you think Howell has the best chance of being the guy.
 
My hope is our FO loves Daniels and/or Maye enough to take the shot grab them at #2.

Based on nothing more than a feeling (hey, that should be a song title), is they decide their best option is trading down just far enough to get both an elite LT prospect and ... J.J. McCarthy.

Wanted to get that on record just in case.
 
It is fairly rare that teams with high picks and no franchise QB aren’t in this exact quandary. Despite the Caleb hype I think the Bears will also face a great deal of uncertainty. Sure things at QB are like unicorns.
 
I’m just saying that the conversation/argument/debate has been heavily revolving around which of Daniels/Maye will be a beast and which will be a bust.

To me it’s even money across the board. Pick your poison and hope for the best. In all likelihood the answer is somewhere in the middle.
 
The one metric that may be deciding though I don't know quite how you get at it is which athlete is more teachable. Who gains and retains information better, who integrates it into practice faster, which one is the best student? I sometimes think the bust factor is mostly about scheme and intelligence. GMs aren't really wrong about the physical attributes. They know how fast a player is, how hard and how accurately they can throw, what is harder to determine is how much improvement the player will make from year one to year two.

RGIII was amazing in year one. Partly because of the injury, every year after that he regressed. He could never step up. He was a whiz at arithmetic. Fastest guy in the class to do his sums, but the moment they put algebra in front of him he flunked out.

Or something like that.

So, I think the question of Maye, Daniels, and Williams will ultimately be resolved around the issue of work ethic and ability to figure out the game. Tom Brady was not anywhere close to the best athlete nor was Drew Brees, but both could out think the defense and understood what needed to be done and how things would play out better than their peers.
 
I know I did a draft trade breakdown on teams that need QBs. The Falcons already ruined all that analysis. But there is another option here where the team could get one of the top 4 QBs or the top LT. The Chargers just cut Mike Williams. Keenan Allen is great, but is getting older. I’m sure the Chargers would love to have Marvin Harrison Jr, but so will the Cardinals at 4. The Chargers could trade up to 2 to make sure they get him. If that happens and the draft goes Williams, Harrison, Maye or Daniels, the Cardinals would not take a QB so could trade out, or take a WR or Alt. But that would still leave one of the top QBs, or Alt. And if they wanted McCarthy, I think it would seem more justified to take him at 5 and not 2. Which really doesn’t matter, but I’m sure to some it does.
 
I think Maye's flaws are correctable. Footwork, ie dancing and throwing off the back foot, is a disease of almost every quarterback coming into the NFL. Can you remember a guy that came in with nothing to work on?

His other flaw is throwing high on short passes such as quick screens and choice routes within that 5-10 yard range.

But he has perhaps the strongest downfield arm of the top rated quarterbacks and has the size and mobility to make you believe he will be a durable performer at the NFL level.

Again, in review of some of the games, his mobility is underrated.

The other factor which is obvious when watching the games is the lack of surrounding talent vis a vis Daniels.

When I watched Kurt Warner's review of Maye, he had comments about the footwork (he was amazed Maye was able to complete one ball when his feet were completely twisted) needing coaching and improvement - but he also commented on the poor route running of his receivers.

On a number of plays Maye was left high and dry by blockers that missed their blocks completely and receivers that cut off routes or gave up on plays and gave Maye no options when he rolled out to get away from the pressure.

Now you compare that to Daniels.

Daniels had a better offensive line. He had much better wide receivers, in fact two likely #1 picks.

Nabors and Thomas were often wide open on plays where their collegiate competitors at CB were simply not in the same class.

Warner noted in his analysis of Daniels that the coaches had Jayden throwing outside of the numbers quite a bit, balls on go routes where the WR was going to catch the ball or it was going to be an incompletion. He also made hay on short quick passes that yielded an unreal amount of RAC that you don't usually see at the next level.

Daniels rarely tested the middle of the field in that 15-20 yard range which is the staple of a number of the more productive offenses in the NFL.

Warner mentioned that the middle throws are a real test of the quarterback because that was where mistakes lead to interceptions rather than incompletions.

The issue of durability wasn't really a point of Warner's review re Daniels other than to say some of Jayden's runs and open field moves likely would have lead to direct hits by 250 pound linebackers and 220 pound safeties and he would have to learn to run out of bounds at the next level.

So, Warner thought each of the guys needed work. No one was a finished product that was ready to come in and take over from Day 1 and be an instant Dan Marino type rookie.
 
I have done everything possible to try to evaluate the top QBs without allowing any biases I may have to have an influence.

I really value Warner’s long-form QB Confidental breakdowns. He has posted those for Williams and Maye but not for Daniels yet.

He did do a long appearance on the Pocket Presence show on YT two weeks ago and rated the top 6 prospects based on game tape that he watched of each from last season. (Linked below, starting @ 28:00)

Here were his rankings-

1- Caleb Williams
2- Jayden Daniels
3- Michael Penix, Jr
4- Bo Nix
5- Drake Maye
6- JJ McCarthy

The only consistent attributes that I have seen mentioned about Maye are his size, his strong arm, his better than average mobility, and his plus rating on down the field throws.

As promised-

 
Warner doing a radio hit on Boston sport talk radio, also from 2 weeks ago-

“Jayden Daniels has all of the physical ability to run around,” Warner said. “And the way he played last year was so good. I just watched the Ole Miss game last night, and it was some really good stuff from a processing standpoint. So, I’m kind of liking what I’m seeing there.


“Drake Maye is interesting because he’s big, he’s strong, he’s got the big arm, but there’s a level of inconsistency with him throwing the football — and that always worries me. … There’s some things there that concern me just from a consistency standpoint. His technique in the pocket.

” .. And it’s been just about every tape I’ve watched where he just misses what I call ‘layups’ — like throws in front of him, and he just wildly misses those throws, you know, four, five, six times in a game.”
 
Interesting to me that Penix gets a better rating from former players and especially quarterbacks than he does from former NFL personnel executives.

The problem I have with some of the former GMs and front office guys is they were in fact failures in their positions, such as Mike Tannenbaum.

He was fired from the Jets after a chaotic term in the front office.

Louis Riddick is another guy that comes on various radio and TV shows and acts very authoritatively and with certainty about prospects. Listening to him you would think he was part of winning 6 Super Bowls in New England or 3 in Kansas City.
 
Bulldog said:
Interesting to me that Penix gets a better rating from former players and especially quarterbacks than he does from former NFL personnel executives.

The problem I have with some of the former GMs and front office guys is they were in fact failures in their positions, such as Mike Tannenbaum.

He was fired from the Jets after a chaotic term in the front office.

Louis Riddick is another guy that comes on various radio and TV shows and acts very authoritatively and with certainty about prospects. Listening to him you would think he was part of winning 6 Super Bowls in New England or 3 in Kansas City.
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Yep..opinions....everyone has one. :)
 
With the Howell trade, guess we are going QB. :)
 
When they do draft a QB, I hope they have sense enough to give the young fella the help he needs.
 
Is EB gone? Check.

Is Rivera gone? Check.

Do we have a new GM? Check.

I think the young man will be okay 👍
 
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