Coronavirus - COVID19

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MikefromOH

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People cannot ‘stay indoors’ indefinitely. They either go out to the grocery, to get gas, or have stuff delivered - all of which are points of potential infection. Again, we seem to be arguing either/or ... which aren’t the only choices.

Bottom line, the less the social isolation, the greater the risk (and the increased risks aren’t limited to individuals making the choice not to self-quarantine).
going to the store, getting gas, or having stuff delivered will not stop what is now starting to happen.

One of my best friends back in SD just told me tonight that his 16 year old son's best friends dad killed himself. He has been locked in his house, drinking, and fell in to depression. This isn't a story so you feel pity or anything like that. That is a reality. People are getting depressed, they are losing their purpose and focus on what is important to them. The risk of the virus is becoming far less fearful over what else might happen.

whether it is 98, 94, or even 90% survival rate, we have to try to open up the country again. if we dont, we face far bigger risks from what is going to happen to a country locked down and controlled.
 

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Again Mike - it's not either/or. The choice isn't 'open up the country' or 'Lock down the country'. That's a suckers choice. You can't do either exclusively. I've already referenced myself that there are costs and consequences no matter what we do, and how much empathy I have for those who have to make these decisions. They are tough ones.

As for the contention that keeping some form of quarantine going is a bigger risk than alternatives? I think that's a huge assumption that there's literally no factual basis for. We have no idea what's going to happen when states acquiesce to pressure to 'open up'.

And for the record, I specifically said that shutting down the entire country for years is not practical or possible. But we'd also better be cognizant of the threat posed by opening everything up with no proven treatments, no vaccine, and no idea if it is going to explode again.
 
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MikefromOH

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how isn't it that? Even slow opening is still opening.
 

Shi no Tenshi

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I believe the desire at this point is to aim for quarantines targeted at known infections, and to limit asymptomatic spread with face coverings.

The issues occurring with this deployment are:
- not enough accurate testing available to ensure accurate targeting.
- strong politicized resistance to wearing masks.

If those two things can be overcome, opening things up more can be much lower in risk. One part of it is private/government response and manufacturing, the other is people taking accountability for their own actions. Sadly, there are a lot of people who prefer to be victims or stand behind rationalizations, so that one will be harder to handle.

It also didn't help that the instruction for so long was to not wear masks. But the politicization of that really needs to stop, as it is not a huge infringement of your rights to wear a mask, and it makes it safer to engage in public activity.
 

Kel Varnsen

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I went to the grocery store for the first time since the shelter in place orders. It wasn’t crowded at all. It was my first experience with the one way aisles. The problem I have with those aisles is this. I had to walk up an aisle with people in it, getting closer than 6 feet to them, instead of walking up an aisle marked do not enter where no one was. Before this virus, I would walk up or down the aisle with no people if I was just traveling through the aisle. It may be a different story if it’s crowded, but in the situation I was in, common sense was a better way to avoid the virus rather than following a set pattern of walking.
 

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I went to the grocery store for the first time since the shelter in place orders. It wasn’t crowded at all. It was my first experience with the one way aisles. The problem I have with those aisles is this. I had to walk up an aisle with people in it, getting closer than 6 feet to them, instead of walking up an aisle marked do not enter where no one was. Before this virus, I would walk up or down the aisle with no people if I was just traveling through the aisle. It may be a different story if it’s crowded, but in the situation I was in, common sense was a better way to avoid the virus rather than following a set pattern of walking.
First time, Kel? Hell, I go 3-4x per week. It’s been my only recreation.

In my experience only about 50% follow that direction. Explains the average humans driving abilities. 🤣
 

MikefromOH

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kids played with the neighborhood kids for the first time outside. they tried at first to maintain a distance but it didn't work. I feel guilty as heck for it, but my son cried last week to me and said "you are keeping me from my friends and they all get to play". I am not sure where the middle ground is, but they showered and I washed their clothes after...
 

Beetlejuice

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Virginia began phase 1 of reopening on Friday. Most places are still closed, and the Governor said you still have to maintain social distancing, no crowds larger than 10 people, etc. He also reiterated that the beaches are to remain closed, due to the fact we've spent the last several days hitting record numbers for new cases and deaths. This picture is Virginia Beach yesterday. Closed. Smh.
vb.jpg
 

MikefromOH

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how can any spike from this week be from opening back up?

If it takes 72 hours to test positive...
 

Beetlejuice

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how can any spike from this week be from opening back up?

If it takes 72 hours to test positive...
It can't be. I don't know if that was a general remark, or directed at me, but I've noticed a lot of states that are opening back up are doing so in the midst of numbers still hitting record levels. Seems like a recipe for disaster to me.
 

MikefromOH

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nothing is directed at anyone here personally. i was thinking that because we see that on the news all the time.

personally, i think this is now getting to be sketchy reporting and going to turn to fear mongering if anything.
 

Beetlejuice

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It seems like every day now I read a story about someone who was all in on covid-19 being a hoax, to the point they were loud and proud to make that declaration to anyone who would listen, only to change their tune after getting it. Part of me want to laugh at the irony and their ignorance, but nothing is funny about this virus. Sadly, it seems like these people always die within days of the story going public.

On a side note, I've noticed an interesting trend. Anyone who calls people sheeple, tells them to wake up, and says do your research is someone who has clearly done no research, and are choosing instead to believe and repeat the misinformation being spewed by well known frauds (Dr. Buttar, Dr. Mikovits) or by outright insane conspiracy theorists like Alex Jones and David Icke. It makes me glad all these apps have a block user option. I'm sorry, but if you choose to take medical advice from a soccer player who believes lizard people rule the world, you're beyond help already.
 

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I'm all for moderation and not getting too far to the extremes here. I do question who is offering advice to governors about some of this though. If we just look at one industry - restaurants - the regulations are a death warrant for any independent owner. At least here in Texas. They are limiting them to 25% capacity. Total. Restaurants are designed to run at an average of 70% capacity during open hours which usually means pushing max capacity for peak hours like lunch and dinner. A lot of places have been running with a skeleton crew to handle carry-out and delivery business but that crew can't handle an open dining room.

Early reports here have been bad. Dining rooms that usually do 100+ covers at lunch have been doing 5 (or less, one day they did 1).

What I hear is "so they shouldn't open yet". The problem there is that they are no longer restricted from opening which means their business interruption insurance (if they have it) is no longer valid but once open they can't operate at a profit. And yet, the governor's office here seems to think they should all be open and thrilled to be allowed to be open while showing zero understanding of how the industry as a whole operates.

Edit: I should add that this was not meant in a political way other than to say that the governments of all states appear ignorant of how the service industry actually operates from a business perspective. I'm seeing this in both Rep and Dem controlled states.
 
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MikefromOH

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they are sending "enforcement people" to "pop in" to make sure they are enforcing social distancing.

starting to make me feel weird about if this is for my safety or if it is just them not giving the people back their rights.
 

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they are sending "enforcement people" to "pop in" to make sure they are enforcing social distancing.

starting to make me feel weird about if this is for my safety or if it is just them not giving the people back their rights.
That's similar to what the governor here is doing. He said Virginia Beach can open fully on Friday for memorial Day weekend, but they are sending out dozens of "enforcement officers" to heavily patrol the beach to enforce social distancing. Since VB has a massive police presence anyway, especially at the oceanfront, I can't even imagine what type of Hollywood looking scenario is gonna play out with that.
 

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Not exactly Mike... because if you opt to exercise your freedom and get exposed, now you put others at risk. That’s where the dilemma lies. I don’t think it has to be one side is correct and the other wrong. But it’s not as simple as individual choice, particularly when some can carry this with little to no awareness or symptoms.
Every time we slide into a car or quaff a drink before sliding into a car people are put at risk; I recall my daughter's pre-school days when parents would routinely send their kids with colds, coughs, etc. But is anything done in these circumstances? No. Only after the fact. It may defauilt to one's personal moral calculus and risk tolerance. This business of polticians unilaterally abrogating freedoms that millions have died for over the centuries is every bit as serious and concerning as Covid - even more so for what it portends. In my own mind, common sense limitations are acceptable if based on good data. One thing that is very clear is that the modeling behind much of the Covid policy was wildly off - by orders of magnitude. Why is that? Why is it reputable medical professionals differ on the efficacy of preventative and ameliorative treatments? Why is it policies in several states actually increased the death rate by a wide margin? Why is it nothing is being done to prevent this from happening again? We know where this came from. We know that impacted individuals were quickly allowed to migrate to other countries - not within their native country. This is all by way of saying that the causes, exacerbators and solutions have many sources - but the approaches are selective leaving one to speculate why that might be.
 

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I'm all for moderation and not getting too far to the extremes here. I do question who is offering advice to governors about some of this though. If we just look at one industry - restaurants - the regulations are a death warrant for any independent owner. At least here in Texas. They are limiting them to 25% capacity. Total. Restaurants are designed to run at an average of 70% capacity during open hours which usually means pushing max capacity for peak hours like lunch and dinner. A lot of places have been running with a skeleton crew to handle carry-out and delivery business but that crew can't handle an open dining room.

Early reports here have been bad. Dining rooms that usually do 100+ covers at lunch have been doing 5 (or less, one day they did 1).

What I hear is "so they shouldn't open yet". The problem there is that they are no longer restricted from opening which means their business interruption insurance (if they have it) is no longer valid but once open they can't operate at a profit. And yet, the governor's office here seems to think they should all be open and thrilled to be allowed to be open while showing zero understanding for the industry as a whole operates.
Yes. Add to that the workers who face the choice of being removed from unemployment or possibly contracting a very serious disease with potentially life-threatening consequences. My daughter is facing that choice right now in RVA and it sucks for all of us. The people who are screaming about their "freedoms" while at the same time putting those restaurant owners' businesses in jeopardy and people like my daughter's lives in jeopardy because they want to have a drink or eat a meal or whatever... yikes. I don't have a ton of patience for that, personally.
 

fansince62

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"Potentially" seems to be a rather imprecise number to me to base a decision upon. And that's the key - decision making, specifically risk decisions. Give me the data. If I'm in a high risk group with a high probablity of death, then that leads to one set of behaviors. If not, then another set of behaviors. The data is clearly showing that the incidence probability for contracting and then dieing from this virus emphatically does not fit a Gaussian/Normal distribution. It's highly skewed. If an individual choses to socially distance and isolate by restricting him/her/binary self to a home environment then that is their prerogative. I get the argument about asymmetric carriers. Tersting, for a short period, helps here. But that's only one part of the equation. The other part is the susceptiblity to contracting the virus and the probability of death. Those are the people who should not be out and about. Those are the people who should be receiving greater attention and support.

Not directed at anyone in particular, but, after I make a decision on my life based on accurate threat/risk probabilities to myself, my familiy and those around me - attempts to stop me from doing what I want will provoke a response. The dirty secret is that people have been out and about for a while now. I see it on a daily basis and I saw it while on a short trip to FL last week. Nobody talks about it, but until a vaccine is developed, the basic premise (the way these things have been handled before) is to suffer through a wave that immunizes a large segment of the population - the downside to this evident. Quarantining does nothing to prevent the disease - it's designed to slow the rate of spread. The original intent for quarantining, all should recall, was to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Well, where are we now?

Btw...I'm not following your logic. The restaurant owners serving the freedom screamers? Those are their customers that they have opened their businesses to. Are you claimimg that the freedom screamers are by definition the carriers? That they can't make intelligent decisions? If they chose to stay home even if healthy, the restaurant goes away as do the jobs. It's about intelligent risk decisions. It shouldn't be about fear. This paternalistic notion that lies at the root in places like Michigan is also dangerous - as adults we're just too stupid to make informed decisions that weigh competing risks. I would submit the real problem is how poor the analysis/predictive models have been and the evident corruption/politiization of data collection/"normalization".

I will now retreat to my cubby hole and enjoy my designer ice cream.
 
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MikefromOH

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doesn't seem like most people who want what they want have patience for anyone else's side. I am seeing it right now on my school boards Facebook group page. People are calling each other all kinds of names and showing no compassion for how anyone else feels.

I get it. We have all been locked down for so long. Some are happy for it, some are not. Some have no choice about it. But, neither side is 100% right and should be open to at least listening and working with the other.
 

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