Coronavirus - COVID19

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Elephant

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It seems like every day now I read a story about someone who was all in on covid-19 being a hoax, to the point they were loud and proud to make that declaration to anyone who would listen, only to change their tune after getting it. Part of me want to laugh at the irony and their ignorance, but nothing is funny about this virus. Sadly, it seems like these people always die within days of the story going public.
How about someone who had it and minimizes the seriousness of the governments reaction? He doesn't discount the ones who've gotten sick, and have a condition that made them more at risk of dying. But after recovering from it as a 53 year old man who is out of shape and drinks too much, he has a pretty good perspective after spending 2 weeks in bed recovering from it by himself.
 

MikefromOH

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weve broken our full quarantine and now allowing the kids to play with the neighborhood kids. no kids are going in anyone else's house, but my kids mental health was really low. Stephen turned to me one day crying and said "You're keeping me from my friends and I don't know why".

Right or wrong, it is what we've done. the mood in the house this morning is 10x better than it has been since pre-quarantine.
 

fansince62

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Hang in there Mike. You're balancing all the variables and making the best decisions for your family. No one here will question that. Hoping for only the best for you and your family.
 

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deleted post. didn't pay attention to date on post I was respondiong to!
 

Ax

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Each passing day cements, at least in my mind, that the blanket shutdown, and crippling of the economy, was completely unwarranted, and only marginally effective, against the "stated" purpose.
Early predictions were an absolute joke. With their motivations being highly suspect, at best. And the gorilla is just getting started.

No, the China virus is not a hoax. Yes it is very serious for small sectors of the population. But the overreaction cannot be justified.
In any way, shape or form.

Came close to commenting in Sarge's Memorial day thread, yesterday. But didn't want to do to his thread what we as a nation have done to the graves of the dead soldiers. And that's piss all over them.
We've gone from, "Home of The Free, Because of The Brave", to "Home of The Scared, By Design".

So, we can still honor the fallen. Their sacrifice is timeless. But we should all be ashamed of our actions.
We are undeserving of the price they paid.

July 4th will be the next new Hollow Day.

Back to self quarantine.
 

MikefromOH

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Yeah, I am tending to agree with you more and more on that Ax.

even my most adamantly sure that this was a serious virus are starting to come around more. My close friends up the street has one who is a nurse and the husband has a lung condition...and, even they are pretty much over it. They are just waiting to see what the "honest stats" from this past week are and then going to decide from there.

We hung out all weekend with friends and their kids in the neighborhood. Nobody goes out to restaurants or bars yet, so we are all sure we are safe. But, the mental state of our children has dramatically improved which in return has helped all of us change our attitudes as well.

Ohio is pretty much wide open now. Dr. Acton had her lockdown regulations found illegal and overturned. People are sick and tired of the government overstepping and are starting to take the power back. But, the conspiracy theorist in me believes this was just a test run. They will do it more and more unless we stop them.
 

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As long as everyone is making decisions based on accurate facts, local environment and personal/social risk I am satisfied. The last item ensures there will never be complete agreement on this. As for the rich taking their vacations on private islands. Must be nice. But, hey, we're all in this together.
 

Ax

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The following article is a loooong read. But it has some interesting information and opinions in it. All of which can be further researched by anyone that wishes to.

I would suggest any of the political aspects be absorbed as, food for thought, but not discussed here on the open board. That should be done privately, if at all.
 

MikefromOH

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with all the protesting going on, someone said something that made a lot of sense to me.

"if you don't see an immediate and huge spike in positive cases after all the protesting going on, you must immediately reopen the country"
 

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with all the protesting going on, someone said something that made a lot of sense to me.

"if you don't see an immediate and huge spike in positive cases after all the protesting going on, you must immediately reopen the country"
And if you do, maybe we need to slow our roll - right?
 

MikefromOH

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Ax

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There was supposed to be a spike after the Wisconsin election. Don't recall seeing one.
There was supposed to be a spike after Georgia starting opening. Don't recall hearing about one.
Florida? Ozarks? Spring Break Beach Party?

So far, I haven't heard, or read, about any significant spike, yet. Which is good news.

The human race has survived every virus that's come down the pike. This one will be no different.
Neither will the next one.
 

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It remains to be seen what the course of this will be. We still don’t know if warmer weather will cause the virus to decline, nor even if it does what happens when fall and winter arrive. My hospital has had more cases in the past 3 weeks than ever. One of them on my unit right now is 21 and has major brain damage from anoxia.

You guys would be a lot less nihilistic about this if you were up close and personal with it. Guaranteed.
 

MikefromOH

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how close to it do I need to be?

1 friend who was in a coma from it
2 friends who recovered from it at home
1 person who recovered after a week in hospital

I believe I am being very fair and listening to all sides here.
 

Elephant

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It remains to be seen what the course of this will be. We still don’t know if warmer weather will cause the virus to decline, nor even if it does what happens when fall and winter arrive. My hospital has had more cases in the past 3 weeks than ever. One of them on my unit right now is 21 and has major brain damage from anoxia.

You guys would be a lot less nihilistic about this if you were up close and personal with it. Guaranteed.
I'm not questioning your POV, I am sure it is a difficult thing to see up close and personal from inside a hospital, you will see the worst of it. But my close friend who had it...who is not the healthiest guy in the world for 52, over weight, drinks too much, does not get enough exercise...told me it was like the worst he thinks he's ever been sick, but that it was never life threatening and not as big a deal as it's being made out to be. His own doctor downplayed the need for complete shut down, or at least that is what my friend said.

I don't know what to think, too be honest...but I will ask this, with an overwhelming majority of the cases who have died being from underlying conditions, how can we think it was ever quite as bad as to shut everything down like we did? There has to be a better way.

We destroyed our economy, and in a very indirect way the loss of jobs is assuredly leading to the chaos we're seeing in some small way. Unemployment rates as high as they are, people have nothing else to do but turn on leadership when the flame is ignited...it's a phenomena as old as man.
 
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Boone

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I have never argued we needed 'a complete shutdown'. What I have said is that it's easy to criticize when you aren't the one's having to make difficult calls and when we still only know a little about this virus with any certainty. Folks want to make the whole approach all or nothing. It's not an 'either/or' scenario - it's a complex one.

What I do have a problem with is the idea that we need to 'open it all up' with 'live with it' when we have no idea what the consequences would be. I ate outside at a restaurant with my daughter last Sunday. We biked, without masks, in busy areas. I considered those low risk activities. But arguing that the human race will survive - as if that's the only goal. That's oversimplification taken to an extreme.
 

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I'm not questioning your POV, I am sure it is a difficult thing to see up close and personal from inside a hospital, you will see the worst of it. But my close friend who had it...who is not the healthiest guy in the world for 52, over weight, drinks too much, does not get enough exercise...told me it was like the worst he thinks he's ever been sick, but that it was never life threatening and not as big a deal as it's being made out to be. His own doctor downplayed the need for complete shut down, or at least that is what my friend said.

I don't know what to think, too be honest...but I will ask this, with an overwhelming majority of the cases who have died being from underlying conditions, how can we think it was ever quite as bad as to shut everything down like we did? There has to be a better way.

We destroyed our economy, and in a very indirect way the loss of jobs is assuredly leading to the chaos we're seeing in some small way. Unemployment rates as high as they are, people have nothing else to do but turn on leadership when the flame is ignited...it's a phenomena as old as man.
I think in retrospect, the state and federal governments would have done geographically-based shutdowns. However, as we all know but often fail to acknowledge, hindsight is always 20-20. I've heard the 'underlying conditions' stuff and 'you aren't at risk unless you're 65 or older stuff'. I believed it - until I saw young people die at my hospital. Try telling the 21 year old on my unit who almost died, had no significant medical issues, and who has brain damage that he should be okay with it - because statistically he should've been fine. We've had a number of patients under 50 who've died. I've almost never seen that with the flu. I'm not saying this is the bubonic plague. But it's not the flu and it's sure as hell not a bad cold. It's a very nasty virus that can kill you - no matter how old or healthy you are. I think there will turn out to be genetic susceptibility factors (whether it's blood type or other genetic factors) that either protect or doom you.
 

Ax

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It remains to be seen what the course of this will be. We still don’t know if warmer weather will cause the virus to decline, nor even if it does what happens when fall and winter arrive. My hospital has had more cases in the past 3 weeks than ever. One of them on my unit right now is 21 and has major brain damage from anoxia.

You guys would be a lot less nihilistic about this if you were up close and personal with it. Guaranteed.
Without a doubt, there are still many unknowns concerning the course of this current strain of virus. But the numbers have been consistently and steadily drifting towards it not reaching the level of severity it was advertised to be. Not even close. Obviously, to the dead and the dying it was/is. But that just puts it on equal ground with countless other causes of death.
So far, it's still worse than the flu, for adults. Though the numbers keep trending closer to it, as well.
But the flu has killed more children than the China virus.

As with most every virus, the older and less healthy are the most susceptible. That'll never change. Our overreaction to it was a disastrous change from the norm, IMHO.

As to being on the medical front line of things, I get it. They see things in a totally different way. All of my criticisms do not for a second take away from the admiration I have for them, in what I can only imagine is the most frightening thing in that profession....the unknown.

But the Fauci's, CDC's, and WHO's of the world, relying on models that are rarely correct, were wildly wrong with their early projections. And I fear the devastation from these mistakes, which have also not run their course yet, cannot be overstated. So, while the health community should always be involved in the discussion, they should never be the driving factor of policy. Because the big picture transcends such a singular view.

I also don't believe I'm being nihilistic. I'd call it realistic.

Being outside the confines of the medical field, the evidence jumps out at you.
Where are the massive outbreaks from the grocery stores, Walmart's, and Home Depot's?
Where are the outbreaks from road crews, construction sites, liquor/pot stores?
They don't exist. If they did, all that would have been shut down too.

It just doesn't add up. But rather than admit that they collectively screwed the pooch, the architects of it all keep doubling down on the fear factor.

Not to mention, the gorilla.
 

Boone

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Without a doubt, there are still many unknowns concerning the course of this current strain of virus. But the numbers have been consistently and steadily drifting towards it not reaching the level of severity it was advertised to be. Not even close. Obviously, to the dead and the dying it was/is. But that just puts it on equal ground with countless other causes of death.
So far, it's still worse than the flu, for adults. Though the numbers keep trending closer to it, as well.
But the flu has killed more children than the China virus.

As with most every virus, the older and less healthy are the most susceptible. That'll never change. Our overreaction to it was a disastrous change from the norm, IMHO.

As to being on the medical front line of things, I get it. They see things in a totally different way. All of my criticisms do not for a second take away from the admiration I have for them, in what I can only imagine is the most frightening thing in that profession....the unknown.

But the Fauci's, CDC's, and WHO's of the world, relying on models that are rarely correct, were wildly wrong with their early projections. And I fear the devastation from these mistakes, which have also not run their course yet, cannot be overstated. So, while the health community should always be involved in the discussion, they should never be the driving factor of policy. Because the big picture transcends such a singular view.

I also don't believe I'm being nihilistic. I'd call it realistic.

Being outside the confines of the medical field, the evidence jumps out at you.
Where are the massive outbreaks from the grocery stores, Walmart's, and Home Depot's?
Where are the outbreaks from road crews, construction sites, liquor/pot stores?
They don't exist. If they did, all that would have been shut down too.

It just doesn't add up. But rather than admit that they collectively screwed the pooch, the architects of it all keep doubling down on the fear factor.

Not to mention, the gorilla.
I don't really have much argument with most of this. But again, easy to criticize now that we have more information. Someone very early on in this thread posted one of those wildly over-the-top predictions based on 'algorithms' written by a guy with no healthcare or virus expertise. That article and the doom and gloom predictions were widely embraced and shared everywhere. I'm not sure those were the kinds of studies that Fauci and the CDC (I wouldn't lump those in with the WHO which is a disaster) were basing their plans on however.

There's also the paradox that it may be precisely because we 'overreacted' that things didn't get horrifically bad everywhere. That can't be proven - but it's patently unfair to discount the possibility too. Folks will ridicule many early predictive models (and in some cases, justifiably so) but then turn around and make blanket statements like 'masks and social distancing did nothing but kill the economy'. This has been one of the most complex and challenging things our country has ever gone through. It's not imaginary. I think it's way too soon to issue scorecards on how it was handled. But that's just my take.

As for my medical vantage point, I understand what you're saying. I offered it not as an end all be all (as Mike said, even folks who advocate for opening everything up have likely known or had people they care about impacted). I mentioned some things I've seen because they stand in direct contrast to stuff folks are putting out there as fact - namely that if you are relatively healthy and not elderly, you aren't at risk. That's simply not true (again, based on my experience, which I don't think is somehow unique).

I don't know how to respond to your questions about retail outlets - other than to say - how would one correlate infection with those things? We are all going to grocery stores, home depots, even liquor stores. Some of us got infected. The fact we can't connect it to those places isn't relevant. But we do know that places where people have been demonstrably together for long periods of time (nursing homes, factories, meat packing plants, churches) have had some of the worse outbreaks anywhere. That's just logically to be expected. So a concern (or fear, if you're the one having to make the call) to 'open things up' is not irrational.
 

Ax

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I don't really have much argument with most of this. But again, easy to criticize now that we have more information. Someone very early on in this thread posted one of those wildly over-the-top predictions based on 'algorithms' written by a guy with no healthcare or virus expertise. That article and the doom and gloom predictions were widely embraced and shared everywhere. I'm not sure those were the kinds of studies that Fauci and the CDC (I wouldn't lump those in with the WHO which is a disaster) were basing their plans on however.

There's also the paradox that it may be precisely because we 'overreacted' that things didn't get horrifically bad everywhere. That can't be proven - but it's patently unfair to discount the possibility too. Folks will ridicule many early predictive models (and in some cases, justifiably so) but then turn around and make blanket statements like 'masks and social distancing did nothing but kill the economy'. This has been one of the most complex and challenging things our country has ever gone through. It's not imaginary. I think it's way too soon to issue scorecards on how it was handled. But that's just my take.

As for my medical vantage point, I understand what you're saying. I offered it not as an end all be all (as Mike said, even folks who advocate for opening everything up have likely known or had people they care about impacted). I mentioned some things I've seen because they stand in direct contrast to stuff folks are putting out there as fact - namely that if you are relatively healthy and not elderly, you aren't at risk. That's simply not true (again, based on my experience, which I don't think is somehow unique).

I don't know how to respond to your questions about retail outlets - other than to say - how would one correlate infection with those things? We are all going to grocery stores, home depots, even liquor stores. Some of us got infected. The fact we can't connect it to those places isn't relevant. But we do know that places where people have been demonstrably together for long periods of time (nursing homes, factories, meat packing plants, churches) have had some of the worse outbreaks anywhere. That's just logically to be expected. So a concern (or fear, if you're the one having to make the call) to 'open things up' is not irrational.
Fully agree that the WHO is a disaster. Lumped them all together because they did all pretty much use the "2.2 million Americans could die soon" model, at the outset.

True that there's no way to know for sure how much worse/better things would have been without the early overreaction.
Or if any short term results might make the long term better/worse.
But my own experience seems to make it seem marginal, in some cases, and beneficial in others. As you said, a targeted approach was the way to go. The initial 2 week shutdown was warranted. But soon thereafter, the more targeted approach was. Instead, preventing the hospitals from being overrun, turned into a endless stoppage of life as we knew it.

As for susceptibility, I assumed we're talking, statistically. If you're young, and relatively healthy, your risk factor is very, very low. In children, it's almost non existent. Of course, there are those in these categories that will die from it. But statistically speaking, they have a better chance to be struck by lightning. Please, don't think that I don't appreciate the devastation to those family and friends. Talking stats is cold. I get it. But it's the reality on the ground.

I'm for opening up as much as possible. As soon as possible.
If that means masks, so be it. We did that in 1918.
Stay home if you're sick.
Safeguard the elderly.
Keep your hands clean.
Don't make out with strangers.

Strive for herd immunity, while trying, repeat, trying to minimize death and sickness.
There may never be a vaccine. Even if there is, they may only be 60% effective.
 
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