Official Game Thread - Playoffs Week 2 - Commanders @ Lions

[Voice_of_Reason]

Traditionally you're correct, but exactly what you said... 3 downs.

They've changed the scope of thinking to 4 downs. 2 yards on first down essentially gives them a 1st and 8 with 3 cracks at it. It's a completely different ananlytical approach where 4th down is no longer a locked in punting situation.

Yeah, but there are parts of the field and down and distances where you can't assume you go for it on 4th down.

On your side of the 50, unless game situation demands it, you're not going for a 4th down and 2. Even Quinn and Campbell don't do that. If you start going for 4th and 2 at your own 40, that's still outside the norm.

Once you cross the 50, and definitely between the opponents 45 and 25, the odds of going for it on 4th down are significantly increased, because you're in no man's land in terms of what to do. If you're at the 45 and punt, you probably pick up 30 yards of field position if you can get the ball downed at the 15. Better is great, but you can't assume that. But that's a 62 yard field goal, and there aren't many people who can pick that up. So, going for it makes a ton of sense.

At the 35, you can't punt. Now the question is do you attempt a 52 yard FG or go for it. The book would now say you go for it.

But if you're outside the opponents 45 or there abouts, most teams still almost always have 3 downs for 10 yards.

 

[Primus Porcus]

Yeah, but there are parts of the field and down and distances where you can't assume you go for it on 4th down.

On your side of the 50, unless game situation demands it, you're not going for a 4th down and 2. Even Quinn and Campbell don't do that. If you start going for 4th and 2 at your own 40, that's still outside the norm.

Once you cross the 50, and definitely between the opponents 45 and 25, the odds of going for it on 4th down are significantly increased, because you're in no man's land in terms of what to do. If you're at the 45 and punt, you probably pick up 30 yards of field position if you can get the ball downed at the 15. Better is great, but you can't assume that. But that's a 62 yard field goal, and there aren't many people who can pick that up. So, going for it makes a ton of sense.

At the 35, you can't punt. Now the question is do you attempt a 52 yard FG or go for it. The book would now say you go for it.

But if you're outside the opponents 45 or there abouts, most teams still almost always have 3 downs for 10 yards.

i'm pretty sure we've gone for it on our own side of the 50 this year.

Again, TRADITIONALLY I agree with you, but it's a different game now. And I'm obviously speculating to what their mentality is, i don't have any connection, but I just don't think they see it as quite the failure the fanbase does when they end up 2nd and 8 or 2nd and 9, because 4th down is likely always an option to them.

To your point, you said a blanket statement previously that 0-2 yards on 1st down is always a failure. It's not, by your logic above, it's only a failure when we're on our own side of the 50 yard line, so I would be curious how many times we ran a play on the plus side of the 50 yard line, and see how many of those short conversions are THEN not considered to be a failure.

Again, I'm not saying that we should be excited, or happy about a 1 yard run on first down, but I just don't think it's the drive killer people think it is, or it used to be, because of the change in mentality regarding 4th down clearly being an option the vast majority of the time.

 

[burgold]

Well sure. A two yard gain from the one yard line on first and goal is always considered a success... and mathematically impossible.

 

[Primus Porcus]

Well sure. A two yard gain from the one yard line on first and goal is always considered a success... and mathematically impossible.

 

[burgold]

Hey, they can't all be winners.

Personally, I aim for baseball percentages.

 

[Chris 44]

If Detroit's defense is having issues as some describe, this may well come down to which offense blinks first...see who breaks serve so to speak.

 

[Chris]

Officiating nugget: Referee Ron Torbert's regular-season crew averaged 17.1 flags per game, third most in the NFL. That includes 49 for offensive holding, which was the fourth most of any crew. The Lions tied for the second-fewest holding penalties (14). The Commanders had 21 (16th most). -- Seifert

 

[Iraolaball]

I think it comes down to Jared Goff. Detroit will run, but I expect Whitt to devise ways to at least deal with that, and make Goff beat us. Goff certainly has that ability, but he also has the ability to chuck up 4 interceptions in a game. If we get Jared Off instead of Jared Goff, we got a shot.

 

[Chris]

Detroit has so many offensive lethal weapons, so many, that even picking your poison is a big ask. They can kill you in multiple ways. We have the magic fairy dust though and I hope that bottle isn’t empty.

 

[burgold]

Officiating nugget: Referee Ron Torbert's regular-season crew averaged 17.1 flags per game, third most in the NFL. That includes 49 for offensive holding, which was the fourth most of any crew. The Lions tied for the second-fewest holding penalties (14). The Commanders had 21 (16th most). -- Seifert

I wonder how/if that changes in playoff mode.

Sounds like a crap crew. A flag-happy-overofficiating bunch.

 

[Chris]

The crews are blended now instead of static so that could have an affect. The concern with Tolbert will be the holding penalties.

 

[SkinsFTW]

I fully expect both teams to go for it on 4th down most of the time. Detroit already has been doing it and now they saw Quinn do it last week.

Quinn knows that Detroit is going to be putting up points on our league worst run defense. He's going to be going for it even more.

 

[grhqofb5]

Depends on what you define as last week.
Yes he played most of the game that didn't really matter to either team, a glorified pre season game and supposedly he looked decent.
This week in their playoff game he was inactive so I wouldn't rush to say he's turned a corner in L.A. quite yet.

Whew.... that's a relief. Forgot that there's 18 weeks in the regular season, counting the extra game and the bye. Not to say that I wish Forbes any ill will, but it would be an enormous kick in the ass if he turned everything around 6 weeks after we cut him because we couldn't find a trade partner.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

I think it comes down to Jared Goff. Detroit will run, but I expect Whitt to devise ways to at least deal with that, and make Goff beat us. Goff certainly has that ability, but he also has the ability to chuck up 4 interceptions in a game. If we get Jared Off instead of Jared Goff, we got a shot.

I think a lot of QBs can be measured against how much "comfort" they need to accurately throw the ball. When I say "accurately" I don't just mean throw it to "a" WR well, but also, the "right" WR well. Although Goff has had some amazing years (and I guess Lions twitter has been busy trying to make that case), well, when you're comfortable it's not as big of an accomplishment. What makes Jayden's year better than Goff's is anyone watching the games... errrrrrrr comfort isn't quite the word anyone would use for Jayden back there.

My hope is, like you kind of said -
1) Whitt figures out how to stop the run
2) Whitt figures out how to make Goff uncomfortable
3) Goff transforms to Jared Off, even for a few plays at least
3b) We capitalize
3c) profit

 

[burgold]

My hope is that we figure out how to do either one or two. I'd love to do both, but I don't think we can. I do think we can pick one area and try to neutralize it.

 

[JordanLove4MVP]

We will be rooting for you guys! I never minded Washington.

 

[Captain James]

I'm hoping this run continues similarly to the Nationals 2019 chip run: tough battles in the Wildcard and Divisional rounds, but then breezing through the Conference round. We all know what happened after that...

 

[RandyHolt]

LaRon Profit (3c) indeed.

We will likely be in bend and snap dont break a ton and to make that work have to hold Detroit to FGs but also use those wide open underneath passes to go for forced fumbles. The lawnmower start cord rip, the peanut punches.... turnovers are huge factors in games if we can force a few it may validate me spending far too much money on the commanders money line this week.

 

[RexTomb]

I think it comes down to Jared Goff. Detroit will run, but I expect Whitt to devise ways to at least deal with that, and make Goff beat us. Goff certainly has that ability, but he also has the ability to chuck up 4 interceptions in a game. If we get Jared Off instead of Jared Goff, we got a shot.

I'd go with you on that if only we could produce turnovers. We don't get turnovers often. Something our defense has to improve upon for next season.

 

[Iraolaball]

I'd go with you on that if only we could produce turnovers. We don't get turnovers often. Something our defense has to improve upon for next season.

Texans had 12 total interceptions this season, 5 of them in one game from Goff. Commies had 9 this season. Goff can chuck interceptions, just gotta hope it’s tomorrow night!