Generally agree, but… if you figure most opponents will score (and thus kickoff) roughly 4-6 times, plus the beginning of half kickoff, that’s 5-7 drives that start at the 30ish. Then add in missed longish FGs and any turnover on downs in the 30-50 range.
A 1st down that’s at our 45+ would put 4th and short to medium past the 50. So we could be on track to go for it on 4th with a 2 yard run anywhere between our 45 and (essentially) the opponents 3 yard line.
I guess I’m mostly just distinguishing between a “majority of the field” and a “ majority of the time”, though I think the argument is there to say just over half of the field is available for still going for it on 4th, if you look at where that ‘2 yard run on 1st down’ starts from.
What’s really going through my mind typing the above out though is… we really need to improve our run game, lol.
Yeah, see above. Going for it at the 50 is really risky. It does depend somewhat on game situation, whether you are down a little, up a little, down a lot, or up a lot. Because if you don't make it, you give the ball to the other team needing 15-20 yards to get into scoring range.
I honestly don't know what the stats say when teams mostly go for it on 4th down, but my gut tells me it's mostly between the opponents 45 and 25. Once you get inside the 25, the "take the points" because it's a pretty short FG becomes more of a thing. Now, Quinn did NOT do that against Tampa. So, maybe they're apt to go for it on 4th and short all the way from the 45 to the goal line.
But if the ball is midfield or in your territory, egads, it would be REALLY bold to go for it.
Agree, run game just needs to get better. I think Robinson is either injured or completely lost confidence. The burst to the hole is gone. Also, at least twice, it looks like if he had taken half a step in a direction (once left, once right), he's in the open, and he just runs into the back of an OL and then falls down.
Probably for a different thread, but I'm hoping Peters figures out how to how to balance upgrading the roster without breaking team chemistry, which I think is going to be hard to do.
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