The reality is a 29/30 year old guard who has an injury history is historically not a great bet to break the bank for. Not at $17-18M a year.
Somewhere along the line the franchise tag, instead of being a 'holding' salary during negotiations of a long term deal, all of a sudden has become the basis for a per year average for the player going forward.
That's great for the individual if they can get it. But you have to be careful if you are the team, evaluating in part the position the player plays on the field.
I can see why a team like the Chiefs with a $450M quarterback is spending mega-bucks to upgrade the OL after the performance in the Super Bowl.
But having Patrick Mahomes or a top 3-5 passer is a bit different situation than the Redskins find themselves in.
A quarterback like Mahomes can help win a game even if the Chiefs don't invest a lot of resources in positions such as LB, S, or resign big dollar guys on the DL, etc.
Guards don't have that multiplier effect on most teams. A team like Washington that is looking to build an all-around team while waiting to acquire its franchise passer either in the draft or next year (most likely) would not be smart to invest $17-18M in a mature player whose next couple of years take him out of his prime in the NFL.
Better to keep him on the one year tender and look to see if we can draft OL depth and develop an in-house candidate like Saahdiq Charles, who may be moved inside to OG from the outside.
That way we get stability for 2021 and a chance to improve without the pressure of coming up with an answer in the next 3-6 months.
I go back to Ereck Flowers. He was drafted #9 overall by the Giants to play LT and failed miserably. He was released by NY and ended up coming to Washington on a one year deal to move to guard. He took to the position and earned a large contract with Miami at age 26.
There really aren't that many positions in the NFL where you can fail for 3-4 years and then switch to another and become successful.
The trajectory of a number of players on the OL and inside DL show that at those positions, as opposed to quarterback or franchise pass rusher, can in fact be developed to play these spots at a solid NFL level or better despite rather humble beginnings.
As with running back and tight end, I don't see any reason to break the bank at guard unless you have a 25-26 year old player who has been a consistent exemplar and top 5 during his career and has shown the durability to at least project out to fulfilling the term of his new deal.
And the position of the team as a rebuilding team, ascending team, contending team or championship team again is important factor in the consideration of how one allocates the dollars. A team like KC or LA Rams who may feel they are ALL in for 2021 will make different decisions than a team like Washington that is still building and needs a few more key pieces and has to re-up some younger, budding star players.