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Like everyone else, I don't know which way Shanahan is ultimately going to move at qb, although I think the chances of Rex Grossman coming back here as a backup/starter in 2012 have declined since the end of the season.
Because in the end I think the team realizes that even if all the 'big' moves fail, signing Kyle Orton who is younger than Grossman and who over time has thrown a whole lot less interceptions vs. touchdowns, is far more coachable.
If a game manager then one who makes fewer mistakes.
That said, the national media has been really down on the Redskins being able to move up for RG3.
I don't believe that the Rams are holding out for 3 first round draft choices and a player as I have heard.
Fisher has a high pick and hopes to parlay that into multiple pieces for a 2-14 team with a good young qb, solid veteran RB and not much else.
So, he is not going to keep the pick. While the Browns at #4 may also covet RG3, I don't see Holmgren throwing that kind of compensation at Fisher as he has a lot of the same problems as the Redskins in needing to build depth and talent.
My guess is the final cost for RG3 will be the swap of picks this year, this year's #2 pick and next year's #1 pick.
It's still a lot to give up for one player. But if you evaluate RG3 properly to that level and he becomes a genuine franchise qb then you can use free agency to fill in some of the holes at WR and OL with the $25-30M in cap space.
So, I don't think the final story has been written on that option yet.
As far as Manning goes, evidently he is throwing the ball better than first reported last week and is 'on schedule' in rehab according to Polian and others who actually saw him throw - as opposed to the other prior reports which appear now to have been second hand.
If Manning is healthy and/or gives a team a risk neutral incentive deal, I think the Redskins will definitely be interested. Should they be? If you are a draftnik perhaps not.
But Shanahan is 60 years old. We don't have a 40 year old coach on his first job and who is learning to swim. Shanahan was hired because he supposedly already knew how to swim.
That's the devil's compromise you make when you bring in an older coach - they are very rarely patient and usually swing for the fences as opposed to playing 'small' ball and looking to get men on first and second with no outs.
To Shanahan no doubt the opportunity for Manning promises the chance to leapfrog a 'rebuilding' year with a rookie in 2012 and make up for the lost year with Donovan.
Contrary to some opinions on WTEM (Russell - is this guy wishy-washy or what? - and apologetic for every player who fails to produce!) and on ESPN like Cowherd, I think the Redskins do have the inside track for Manning.
Why? One, because Snyder will make him the best deal. Two, Washington as opposed to Miami or Arizona is a major media market and puts him in the NFL's premiere division, the NFC East.
Cowherd thinks the Redskins lack the surrounding talent to get Manning here. With free agency and cap room, a LOT can change in a short time.
If the Redskins want to sign Manning and entice him here they can bring in Pierre Garcon and Reggie Wayne at WR and/or draft a playmaker like Justin Blackmon in April.
You add in Fred Davis and the younger backs and that's comparable talent to what Manning was working with in 2009 when the Colts went to the SB at the skill positions.
The OL will need some work. My guess is a RT will become a priority rather than a 'nice to have'.
But look at the other teams. Arizona already has Kevin Kolb signed to a long-term deal with guaranteed money. Their offensive line is in need of repair.
On defense the Cardinals are a mess.
This team is basically selling Larry Fitzgerald because that's all they have.
And is the ownership in AZ really going to compete at market prices for a franchise quarterback if he looks like he might reach all the incentives in a potential deal? Remember how long it took AZ to resign Kurt Warner after he made the Pro Bowl and carried the Cardinals?
Miami? The Dolphins come in a third or fourth behind the big name college programs in FLA. People are more interested in the Hurricanes' recruits than the Dolphins' free agent moves. For a team that has won 2 Super Bowls and been to 3 others, there is little buzz.
Miami is a good choice if Manning wants to disappear off the NFL map.
The Dolphins also have a new head coach who does not have a track record at this level in the NFL. He could be great or he could be Jim Zorn.
Does Manning gamble that much on an unknown quantity?
On the surface I like the numbers in 2011 that Marshall and Bush put up on offense.
Then you look deeper and realize Marshall has a lot of baggage and Bush in NO had a history of getting hurt when put in the lineup as the every down back. Was 2011 a mirage or a preview?
As with AZ, are the Dolphins willing to move from the $25 tables and go upstairs to play in the high stakes game of signing a franchise qb?
And is either team willing to follow up signing Manning with signing some of his buddies from Indy that are free agents as the Redskins probably would be to help him get off the ground running with his new team?
In the end I think the Redskins could get Griffin or Manning but because Shanahan is going into Year 3 of his contract I don't see him selecting a rookie quarterback that may end up helping his successor more than himself
Because in the end I think the team realizes that even if all the 'big' moves fail, signing Kyle Orton who is younger than Grossman and who over time has thrown a whole lot less interceptions vs. touchdowns, is far more coachable.
If a game manager then one who makes fewer mistakes.
That said, the national media has been really down on the Redskins being able to move up for RG3.
I don't believe that the Rams are holding out for 3 first round draft choices and a player as I have heard.
Fisher has a high pick and hopes to parlay that into multiple pieces for a 2-14 team with a good young qb, solid veteran RB and not much else.
So, he is not going to keep the pick. While the Browns at #4 may also covet RG3, I don't see Holmgren throwing that kind of compensation at Fisher as he has a lot of the same problems as the Redskins in needing to build depth and talent.
My guess is the final cost for RG3 will be the swap of picks this year, this year's #2 pick and next year's #1 pick.
It's still a lot to give up for one player. But if you evaluate RG3 properly to that level and he becomes a genuine franchise qb then you can use free agency to fill in some of the holes at WR and OL with the $25-30M in cap space.
So, I don't think the final story has been written on that option yet.
As far as Manning goes, evidently he is throwing the ball better than first reported last week and is 'on schedule' in rehab according to Polian and others who actually saw him throw - as opposed to the other prior reports which appear now to have been second hand.
If Manning is healthy and/or gives a team a risk neutral incentive deal, I think the Redskins will definitely be interested. Should they be? If you are a draftnik perhaps not.
But Shanahan is 60 years old. We don't have a 40 year old coach on his first job and who is learning to swim. Shanahan was hired because he supposedly already knew how to swim.
That's the devil's compromise you make when you bring in an older coach - they are very rarely patient and usually swing for the fences as opposed to playing 'small' ball and looking to get men on first and second with no outs.
To Shanahan no doubt the opportunity for Manning promises the chance to leapfrog a 'rebuilding' year with a rookie in 2012 and make up for the lost year with Donovan.
Contrary to some opinions on WTEM (Russell - is this guy wishy-washy or what? - and apologetic for every player who fails to produce!) and on ESPN like Cowherd, I think the Redskins do have the inside track for Manning.
Why? One, because Snyder will make him the best deal. Two, Washington as opposed to Miami or Arizona is a major media market and puts him in the NFL's premiere division, the NFC East.
Cowherd thinks the Redskins lack the surrounding talent to get Manning here. With free agency and cap room, a LOT can change in a short time.
If the Redskins want to sign Manning and entice him here they can bring in Pierre Garcon and Reggie Wayne at WR and/or draft a playmaker like Justin Blackmon in April.
You add in Fred Davis and the younger backs and that's comparable talent to what Manning was working with in 2009 when the Colts went to the SB at the skill positions.
The OL will need some work. My guess is a RT will become a priority rather than a 'nice to have'.
But look at the other teams. Arizona already has Kevin Kolb signed to a long-term deal with guaranteed money. Their offensive line is in need of repair.
On defense the Cardinals are a mess.
This team is basically selling Larry Fitzgerald because that's all they have.
And is the ownership in AZ really going to compete at market prices for a franchise quarterback if he looks like he might reach all the incentives in a potential deal? Remember how long it took AZ to resign Kurt Warner after he made the Pro Bowl and carried the Cardinals?
Miami? The Dolphins come in a third or fourth behind the big name college programs in FLA. People are more interested in the Hurricanes' recruits than the Dolphins' free agent moves. For a team that has won 2 Super Bowls and been to 3 others, there is little buzz.
Miami is a good choice if Manning wants to disappear off the NFL map.
The Dolphins also have a new head coach who does not have a track record at this level in the NFL. He could be great or he could be Jim Zorn.
Does Manning gamble that much on an unknown quantity?
On the surface I like the numbers in 2011 that Marshall and Bush put up on offense.
Then you look deeper and realize Marshall has a lot of baggage and Bush in NO had a history of getting hurt when put in the lineup as the every down back. Was 2011 a mirage or a preview?
As with AZ, are the Dolphins willing to move from the $25 tables and go upstairs to play in the high stakes game of signing a franchise qb?
And is either team willing to follow up signing Manning with signing some of his buddies from Indy that are free agents as the Redskins probably would be to help him get off the ground running with his new team?
In the end I think the Redskins could get Griffin or Manning but because Shanahan is going into Year 3 of his contract I don't see him selecting a rookie quarterback that may end up helping his successor more than himself
however he needs to try again. I still think to this very minute that if Locker would have been there at #10 Shanny would have taken him. He has said in interviews that he liked Dalton but not enough to trade up apparently. I think if he plays it safe with the QB position again this upcoming offseason I am not so sure that he will be around for year four.
At some point, you have to 'gamble'. If you're going to gamble, I like the odds of a top 5 pick much more than trying to find some hidden gem in the later rounds. Looking at your list, I'd immediately throw out Leaf. It's no accident we're still referencing him 15 years after he was drafted. That's because that kind of epic-blowing of a top pick is rare. And the rating of QBs is much more about science than gut these days - the scrutiny top QBs get today is incredibly rigorous. A reach (like Sanchez) is much more possible than an outright blown pick in the first round. It's all about risk vs. reward.