RG3 and Manning: Anything is Possible?

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Bulldog

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Like everyone else, I don't know which way Shanahan is ultimately going to move at qb, although I think the chances of Rex Grossman coming back here as a backup/starter in 2012 have declined since the end of the season.

Because in the end I think the team realizes that even if all the 'big' moves fail, signing Kyle Orton who is younger than Grossman and who over time has thrown a whole lot less interceptions vs. touchdowns, is far more coachable.

If a game manager then one who makes fewer mistakes.

That said, the national media has been really down on the Redskins being able to move up for RG3.

I don't believe that the Rams are holding out for 3 first round draft choices and a player as I have heard.

Fisher has a high pick and hopes to parlay that into multiple pieces for a 2-14 team with a good young qb, solid veteran RB and not much else.

So, he is not going to keep the pick. While the Browns at #4 may also covet RG3, I don't see Holmgren throwing that kind of compensation at Fisher as he has a lot of the same problems as the Redskins in needing to build depth and talent.

My guess is the final cost for RG3 will be the swap of picks this year, this year's #2 pick and next year's #1 pick.

It's still a lot to give up for one player. But if you evaluate RG3 properly to that level and he becomes a genuine franchise qb then you can use free agency to fill in some of the holes at WR and OL with the $25-30M in cap space.

So, I don't think the final story has been written on that option yet.

As far as Manning goes, evidently he is throwing the ball better than first reported last week and is 'on schedule' in rehab according to Polian and others who actually saw him throw - as opposed to the other prior reports which appear now to have been second hand.

If Manning is healthy and/or gives a team a risk neutral incentive deal, I think the Redskins will definitely be interested. Should they be? If you are a draftnik perhaps not.

But Shanahan is 60 years old. We don't have a 40 year old coach on his first job and who is learning to swim. Shanahan was hired because he supposedly already knew how to swim.

That's the devil's compromise you make when you bring in an older coach - they are very rarely patient and usually swing for the fences as opposed to playing 'small' ball and looking to get men on first and second with no outs.

To Shanahan no doubt the opportunity for Manning promises the chance to leapfrog a 'rebuilding' year with a rookie in 2012 and make up for the lost year with Donovan.

Contrary to some opinions on WTEM (Russell - is this guy wishy-washy or what? - and apologetic for every player who fails to produce!) and on ESPN like Cowherd, I think the Redskins do have the inside track for Manning.

Why? One, because Snyder will make him the best deal. Two, Washington as opposed to Miami or Arizona is a major media market and puts him in the NFL's premiere division, the NFC East.

Cowherd thinks the Redskins lack the surrounding talent to get Manning here. With free agency and cap room, a LOT can change in a short time.

If the Redskins want to sign Manning and entice him here they can bring in Pierre Garcon and Reggie Wayne at WR and/or draft a playmaker like Justin Blackmon in April.

You add in Fred Davis and the younger backs and that's comparable talent to what Manning was working with in 2009 when the Colts went to the SB at the skill positions.

The OL will need some work. My guess is a RT will become a priority rather than a 'nice to have'.

But look at the other teams. Arizona already has Kevin Kolb signed to a long-term deal with guaranteed money. Their offensive line is in need of repair.

On defense the Cardinals are a mess.

This team is basically selling Larry Fitzgerald because that's all they have.

And is the ownership in AZ really going to compete at market prices for a franchise quarterback if he looks like he might reach all the incentives in a potential deal? Remember how long it took AZ to resign Kurt Warner after he made the Pro Bowl and carried the Cardinals?

Miami? The Dolphins come in a third or fourth behind the big name college programs in FLA. People are more interested in the Hurricanes' recruits than the Dolphins' free agent moves. For a team that has won 2 Super Bowls and been to 3 others, there is little buzz.

Miami is a good choice if Manning wants to disappear off the NFL map.

The Dolphins also have a new head coach who does not have a track record at this level in the NFL. He could be great or he could be Jim Zorn.

Does Manning gamble that much on an unknown quantity?

On the surface I like the numbers in 2011 that Marshall and Bush put up on offense.

Then you look deeper and realize Marshall has a lot of baggage and Bush in NO had a history of getting hurt when put in the lineup as the every down back. Was 2011 a mirage or a preview?

As with AZ, are the Dolphins willing to move from the $25 tables and go upstairs to play in the high stakes game of signing a franchise qb?

And is either team willing to follow up signing Manning with signing some of his buddies from Indy that are free agents as the Redskins probably would be to help him get off the ground running with his new team?

In the end I think the Redskins could get Griffin or Manning but because Shanahan is going into Year 3 of his contract I don't see him selecting a rookie quarterback that may end up helping his successor more than himself :)
 

bird_1972

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Bulldog, great write up.

I have to say that I'd like the Skins to take a pass on Manning for two main reasons:

1) I'm not convinced he will hold up after multiple neck surgeries despite optimistic reports on his progress

2) I like the trend the FO started last year of actually attempting to build through the draft rather than make a splash in FA. I'd hate to see that be reversed just to sign a 36 yo QB coming off an injury and likely on the downside of his career

Let's trade up and take RG3.
 

Fear The Spear

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2) I like the trend the FO started last year of actually attempting to build through the draft rather than make a splash in FA. I'd hate to see that be reversed just to sign a 36 yo QB coming off an injury and likely on the downside of his career
Who says we can't do BOTH, for insurance against each other - get the young prospect, AND the older veteran. Either one could fail, for differing reasons, so why not both ?
 

bird_1972

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Who says we can't do BOTH, for insurance against each other - get the young prospect, AND the older veteran. Either one could fail, for differing reasons, so why not both ?
In addition to my reservations about his age and longevity, I do feel like Manning had a very unique situation in Indy. The offense was built to his strengths, he basically ran all of the plays at the line of scrimmage and was given a free hand to adjust as he saw fit.

The Shanahans run a different, more run-oriented offense than Indy and would probably require an adjustment for him. He is too old to pick up a new offense (although he is certainly smart enough and a hard enough worker to do it - just not sure he would want to go to a team where that would be required of him at age 36).

I guess I'm also worried because we have done miserably when it comes to retread QBs. They almost never reach the same level success they had with their prior team. I'd rather start from scratch.
 

Bulldog

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Well, one comparison I could make is to Joe Montana in KC.

Marty was a run first coach who changed the offense to accomodate Montana.

I think Shanahan would do the same thing here with Manning.

And with Wayne, Garcon as free agents the Redskins can provide Manning with guys who already are familiar with him and his style of play.
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I keep hearing that we need to adjust to Peyton if he comes here, but I keep thinking back to what Steve Walsh said last week when he swore that Peyton would end up here. He said Peyton is the exact QB to run Mike Shanahan's system.

He said while playing for him in their Super Bowl year with the 49ers, Mike would have 3 or so plays ready for certain situations when Young would get to the line and it was Young's responsibility to choose the right one when he saw the defensive front. He said the lack of Super Bowl success for Shanahan over the past decade and change is because he hasn't had a QB in place to run his offense the right way since Elway.
 

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But this isn't Mike's offense, El. This is Kyle's offense and I know it is Kyle's because the run gets ignored way too often for it to be Mike's.
 

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But this isn't Mike's offense, El. This is Kyle's offense and I know it is Kyle's because the run gets ignored way too often for it to be Mike's.

I don't think Peyton ends up here, I was just repeating what Young said. Either way, I hope Kyle learns more from his father unless we find ourselves with Andre and Matt. Until then, daddy needs to keep his son under a tight leash.
 

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He is too old to pick up a new offense (although he is certainly smart enough and a hard enough worker to do it - just not sure he would want to go to a team where that would be required of him at age 36).
Thing is, it's not up to Manning. He's likely going to be faced with 2 choices. Retire, or go to another team. There's not a team in the NFL that's going to be able to give Manning the same setup he had in Indy. If he wants to keep playing, it's Manning who will have to adjust and get his head around perhaps not having the complete autonomy he enjoyed in Indy. And I think Manning is ultimately a very smart guy - he CAN do whatever he decides he's willing to do.

I think the only open question is whether or not he'll ever get the arm strength back to a level sufficient enough for him to still play at a high level.
 

isle-hawg

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Nice post Bulldog. If Shanny picks up Manning I will support the move and most likely get my hopes up for a much better season for all that Manning brings over Rex (the turnover machine) Grossman! Having said that my brain vice heart tells me we as fans are better off in the long run if the FO takes a pass on him since being the champions is the goal and I just don't think Manning gets us there in the 2-3 years at most he's got left.

Trading away 2 firsts and a 2nd for RG3 doesn't make me thrilled either, since we need so much more and rookie QB's are such a crapshot. Should the FO swing and miss trading away so much for one player with so many other holes to also fill concerns me. If they go this route like everyone else I will hope for the best. It worked for NY (trading up for Eli) but that seems more like the anomaly then the norm.

My preference today for this draft is to take Blackmon should he fall to us at 6 or trade back a few times and stockpile picks for this and next year's draft. Pick up a project QB in round 2 or later, and perhaps another in round 6/7 or UFA. Should these QB's not pan out the team could still pick a QB next year with our 1st round pick, which in all likelihood could be another early pick when some say there will be more quality QB's available.

My thought process centers around that I think the team is for the first time in perhaps the last 40 years truly in the beginning stages of a long overdue rebuilding. With the goal being a Championship vice just a return to mediocrity/playoff appearance (with early loss) I think it is best to finish the rebuilding process even if it means another year or (sigh) 2 of our team being not very good (again). We have waited 20 years now already, I think I can handle another 2 sucky years so long as their is a solid plan in place to build this team right to truly compete for a championship for many years.
 

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My preference today for this draft is to take Blackmon should he fall to us at 6 or trade back a few times and stockpile picks for this and next year's draft. Pick up a project QB in round 2 or later, and perhaps another in round 6/7 or UFA. Should these QB's not pan out the team could still pick a QB next year with our 1st round pick, which in all likelihood could be another early pick when some say there will be more quality QB's available.
Last year when Shanny and crew didn't draft a QB it was thought because there are so many better QBs in the 2012 draft. I have seen this idea on several posts that there are better QBs in the 2013 draft. Eventally we are going to have to stop playing safe and take a chance on a quarterback. Shanny took a chance on McNabb and it bit him in the :moon: however he needs to try again. I still think to this very minute that if Locker would have been there at #10 Shanny would have taken him. He has said in interviews that he liked Dalton but not enough to trade up apparently. I think if he plays it safe with the QB position again this upcoming offseason I am not so sure that he will be around for year four.
 

isle-hawg

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Skinsfan, you make the counter argument to my position well, I know we need a QB at some point and cannot push this year after year (as we seem to do - minus the reaching for JC) indefinitely.

I was in the minority on the other site who hated the McNabb move (trading away picks) for what I thought was an overrated/old QB when we needed a youth movement. I was happy we did not trade up last year for a QB as well. I wanted the team to put some of the other pieces in place first since there did not seem to be their QB available.

As you point out at some point we need to get a QB. I would like this to be the year. Manning is potentially at best giving a team a 3 year window IMO, Luck seems to be off the table if we believe what the talking heads say, RG3 maybe available for multiple draft picks, if we get him and he turns out to be the next big bust we are set back for many more years.

Aaron Rodgers - mid 1st round, Joe Montana - 3rd round pick, Tom Brady 6th round pick, Kurt Warner undrafted. This can and will happen again (a team acquiring a great QB in the mid/late 1st round or later, I am hoping our team's FO can figure out who the next great bargain QB is and grab him this year (after trading back).

Other then McNabb and Brown the current FO seemed to have made some pretty savvy moves IRT player personnel, no need to do an "ALL IN" IMO which is what I think it would be doing if they traded up for RG3.
 
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Boone

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Aaron Rodgers - late 1st round, Joe Montana - 3rd round pick, Tom Brady 6th round pick, Kurt Warner undrafted. This can and will happen again (a team acquiring a great QB in the late 1st round or later, I am hoping our team's FO can figure out who the next great bargain QB is and grab him this year.
We can't allow ourselves to believe this is possible. Finding a Hall of Famer in the late rounds isn't just wishful thinking, it's a pipe dream of epic proportions. I think the science of predicting success at the QB position has improved exponentially. If we try and find a QB in the draft, we need to play the odds, not pray on a cheap lottery ticket. I just can't subscribe to that approach.

Spend what it takes to get the closest thing to a 'sure thing' that the NFL draft has to offer. No matter what you spend, it'll likely be a bargain down the road.

My opinion.
 

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One thing I will say is if we miss on RG3 I would still take a shot at another QB. I think it is safe to say that Shanny will have another QB he thinks he can win with. Tannehill is a great athlete and has solid intangibles. Brock Osweiler has a gun for an arm and is also a great athlete. So let's hope that we Shanahan gets the right guy and can coach him up.
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isle-hawg

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Boone, I respect your opinion, but I believe there are future HOF QB's that will be drafted outside of a top 10 pick in the future. Besides my admitted "cherry picked" later picks that I mentioned for elite QB's there are several very recent early draft pick QB's that I could cherry pick as failures such as Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, JaMarcus Russell, Sanchez (who by some accounts snyderatto were high on trading up for). Alex Smith, despite his team's success is not even a lock to return next year.

I like you prefer our odds at getting a franchise QB early in the draft compared to later, but trading away multiple picks for one shot at that guy maybe a bigger gamble of epic proportions?
 

Boone

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Boone, I respect your opinion, but I believe there are future HOF QB's that will be drafted outside of a top 10 pick in the future. Besides my admitted "cherry picked" later picks that I mentioned for elite QB's there are several very recent early draft pick QB's that I could cherry pick as failures such as Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, JaMarcus Russell, Sanchez (who by some accounts snyderatto were high on trading up for). Alex Smith, despite his team's success is not even a lock to return next year.

I like you prefer our odds at getting a franchise QB early in the draft compared to later, but trading away multiple picks for one shot at that guy maybe a bigger gamble of epic proportions?
Appreciate the quality reply :cheers: At some point, you have to 'gamble'. If you're going to gamble, I like the odds of a top 5 pick much more than trying to find some hidden gem in the later rounds. Looking at your list, I'd immediately throw out Leaf. It's no accident we're still referencing him 15 years after he was drafted. That's because that kind of epic-blowing of a top pick is rare. And the rating of QBs is much more about science than gut these days - the scrutiny top QBs get today is incredibly rigorous. A reach (like Sanchez) is much more possible than an outright blown pick in the first round. It's all about risk vs. reward.

I like our chances of striking gold with a top 2 or 3 QB much more than the odds Shanallen are going to pluck some future HOFer from the later rounds.
 

Ax

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And the rating of QBs is much more about science than gut these days - the scrutiny top QBs get today is incredibly rigorous. A reach (like Sanchez) is much more possible than an outright blown pick in the first round. It's all about risk vs. reward.
I know I've said this before, but I don't think the QB evaluations are THAT much better today, than they were 10-20-30 years ago. They certainly are better, but I think the rules today just make it much, much harder for a QB to fail. Hence, the appearance of FO's doing a better job. A big reason why it's a QB driven league, is because it is such a QB friendly league.

I believe if you took the top 5 QB's today, and could somehow have them swap era's with the top 5 QB's of 20-30 yrs ago, they would be half as good as they are now. At best. And, that the guys from yesteryear, would be even better now than they were then. (Same goes for WR's, BTW)

Anywho, all that said, if the people who's decision actually matters think RGIII is "The One", then they will, and should, go try and get him.
 

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I like our chances of striking gold with a top 2 or 3 QB much more than the odds Shanallen are going to pluck some future HOFer from the later rounds.
We're talking a little different breed of athlete here. Both Luck and Griffin are not only "super smart" guys (going for their Masters) but already possess the leadership qualities that make the players around them better.

While RG3 isn't as big as Cam Newton, he's probably a little faster, a little smarter and has many of the same intangibles Newton has. We all saw how well Newton performed and I feel Griff will perform in the same manner, especially in the Skins' offense.

Could Tannehill be a future HOF'er? Sure, but I think most of us feel he's a bigger risk. IF we're gonna gamble, I'd rather gamble with RG3.
 

NavyDave

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Aaron Rodgers - mid 1st round, Joe Montana - 3rd round pick, Tom Brady 6th round pick, Kurt Warner undrafted. This can and will happen again (a team acquiring a great QB in the mid/late 1st round or later, I am hoping our team's FO can figure out who the next great bargain QB is and grab him this year (after trading back).

Aaron Rodgers sat for several years behind a franchise QB had his footwork throwing motion and other mechanics reworked by the Packers QB Coach who also did the same thing to the over hyped Matt Flynn. Brady sat behind Bledsoe.

So who is the franchise QB our future Aaron Rogers / Tom Brady will sit behind and who is our QB coach that can upgrade his throwing motion, footwork, etc?

I doubt the fans are going to go along with another year of Gross,man or Beck.
 

Boone

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I know I've said this before, but I don't think the QB evaluations are THAT much better today, than they were 10-20-30 years ago. They certainly are better, but I think the rules today just make it much, much harder for a QB to fail. Hence, the appearance of FO's doing a better job. A big reason why it's a QB driven league, is because it is such a QB friendly league.

I believe if you took the top 5 QB's today, and could somehow have them swap era's with the top 5 QB's of 20-30 yrs ago, they would be half as good as they are now. At best. And, that the guys from yesteryear, would be even better now than they were then. (Same goes for WR's, BTW)

Anywho, all that said, if the people who's decision actually matters think RGIII is "The One", then they will, and should, go try and get him.
That's a really interesting thought - I actually heard Colin Cowherd make the exact same point on the radio today (that it's the rules that are allowing more rookie QBs to make it nowadays, as much as anything).
 

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