The Trent Williams question

Fight on... Fight on...

Canadian Hog

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El,

I understand your point fully. There really is no plan B at this stage it seems. This sounds like crying over spilled milk, but it ultimately gets traced back to the failed Geron Christian pick. At this point, you would ideally have him ready to step in and replace an aging player. Christian was an utter disaster and now we run the risk of hanging on too long to a veteran. Cutting ties with Williams is a risk, but it is not like this team is coming off a deep playoff run. If there was a time you could play with fire, I would contest now is as good a time as any.
 

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So Brian - are you making the case that if a team doesn't draft a 1st rounder, it's not possible to find a solid LT in the draft? That's what it sounds like to me. I challenge that assertion. Don't make me go through every team in the league and post where their starting LT's were drafted. because I guarantee you at least half of them weren't drafted in the first round. You're also assuming that a guy who couldn't even stand having a helmet on, is on the downside of 32, and hasn't played in over a year, is going to be the same guy he was a couple years ago.

Just sayin' ....
 

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So Brian - are you making the case that if a team doesn't draft a 1st rounder, it's not possible to find a solid LT in the draft? That's what it sounds like to me. I challenge that assertion. Don't make me go through every team in the league and post where their starting LT's were drafted. because I guarantee you at least half of them weren't drafted in the first round. You're also assuming that a guy who couldn't even stand having a helmet on, is on the downside of 32, and hasn't played in over a year, is going to be the same guy he was a couple years ago.

Just sayin' ....
Of course not, there are hidden gems in every draft, but this off-season is Rivera's first with us and he should be all about minimizing risk and getting the best talent he can for the right price. He has a very good LT in the building already under contract who was disgruntled toward previous leadership, I do what I can to make the new relationship work since there is no option better in the 2020 free agency class and we don't have the draft picks to address an immediate starter at LT.

Yes, he may not be the TW he was 5 years ago, but a 32 year old TW is still a top talent in the NFL. You may lose a step being out for a season, but he also has had time to recover from aches and pains that sometimes don't heal all the way without time off. As for the discomfort with the helmet...yeah, I bought that line as much as you did at the time. It's bullshit if you ask me. He just wasn't going to play, no matter what.

Is that a problem? Could be...and may play into the whole minimize risk I was talking about earlier, but we need to protect our QB since he is still learning how to be an NFL QB. Of the LT options we currently have, TW is our best. If we had Patrick Mahomes, or even Russell Wilson, I think we could say...f-it! and get rid of him for whatever we can get, but we're going into next season with Dewayne Haskins. We need good LT play.
 

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Below is a list of the 2019 playoff teams with their starting LT's. 75% of them were 1st round picks, a couple were traded or signed as free agents with their current team, but were 1st round talents/draft picks. I didn't post the whole list, but the numbers are pretty much the same...about 75% of the starting tackles in the NFL were drafted in the 1st round. They may have been traded or signed to a new team in FA, but were 1st round talents.

You want to go into the upcoming season risking the blind side protection of a young QB still coming into his own on something other than a sure thing? TW is as close to a sure thing as you're gonna get. Re-sign him to a modest extension with the cash we have, and address the other needs through draft and FA.

Taylor Lewan - Titans - 1st round
Joe Staley - 49ers - 1st round
Terron Armstead - Saints - 3rd round
David Bahktiari - Packers - 4th round
Eric Fisher - Chiefs - 1st round
Riley Reiff - Vikings - 1st round
Ronnie Stanley - Ravens - 1st round
Duane Brown - Seahawks - 1st round
Jason Peters - Eagles - UDFA
Laremy Tunsil - Texans - 1st round
Isaiah Wynn - Patriots - 1st round
LaAdrian Waddle - Bills - UDFA
 

Boone

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Below is a list of the 2019 playoff teams with their starting LT's. 75% of them were 1st round picks
Where'd you go to school again? 66.7% of your list were 1st round picks. So a little less than half the teams got to the playoffs without needing a 1st round pick at LT? Cool. Look at the whole league and it'll be even fewer.

Look - it's great to have a 1st round LT. But it's not a necessity...it's just not. And Trent isn't a 1st round talent anymore, so it's kind of a silly conversation. I've already said if they want to delay replacing him for a year or two, that's fine and it may make the most sense. But the argument we couldn't replace him outside the 1st round, not buying it.
 

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Where'd you go to school again? 66.7% of your list were 1st round picks. So a little less than half the teams got to the playoffs without needing a 1st round pick at LT? Cool. Look at the whole league and it'll be even fewer.
Haha! I was using Mike math. But nearly 1/2? Umm...no! 67% is not nearly 1/2, you're trying to sell me a used car.

And I did look at the whole league...the numbers prove you wrong, go look.

Look - it's great to have a 1st round LT. But it's not a necessity...it's just not. And Trent isn't a 1st round talent anymore, so it's kind of a silly conversation. I've already said if they want to delay replacing him for a year or two, that's fine and it may make the most sense. But the argument we couldn't replace him outside the 1st round, not buying it.
And once again, since I must not be making myself clear to you.

It's really not that difficult.

1st round LT's are historically the norm. We are going to draft Chase Young in the 1st round. Scratch that off the list.

You can find a starting LT in the 2nd round, especially when the draft is deep. We don't have a 2nd round pick. Scratch that off the list.

You can find a starting LT in the 3rd round. It's rare to see one start in their rookie year. Scratch that off the list, unless you want to take that risk. I wouldn't.

You can find an LT after the 3rd round. There are even fewer of these LT's playing in the NFL much less starting in their rookie year. Scratch that off the list. Rivera would be a fool to depend on this.

You can find an LT in free agency. Not a single LT in this year's FA class is even close to the talent level of TW. Scratch that off the list.

We have a rookie QB who is not very stable in his position, yet. Let's get him the best LT we can. See above.

If we get a trade for the #2 pick, then yes we could easily take an LT with one of the 1st round picks we would have, maybe even wait til the early 2nd to get one since this draft is LT heavy.

Otherwise, just take the simplest path to a good starting LT.
 

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Double Post


 
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Boone

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You've gone on and on so long about this, you've forgotten what started the conversation. We trade Williams for a 2nd rounder you goob. That was my exact rebuttal to your original post (stated emphatically) that we couldn't replace him with a 2nd round pick. We easily could. I've already said there's nothing wrong with making the LT position a huge priority and using a #1 on it. I'm also okay with them waiting to find TW's replacement. Nowhere have I said let's use mid or late round picks to replace him.
 

Elephant

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You've gone on and on so long about this, you've forgotten what started the conversation. We trade Williams for a 2nd rounder you goob. That was my exact rebuttal to your original post (stated emphatically) that we couldn't replace him with a 2nd round pick. We easily could. I've already said there's nothing wrong with making the LT position a huge priority and using a #1 on it. I'm also okay with them waiting to find TW's replacement. Nowhere have I said let's use mid or late round picks to replace him.
never mind
 

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El....I have run through the same logic you outline and can't find fault with it. There is, however, one major unknown that does shift the equation: no one knows where TW is at physically (let alone mentally) after more than a year doing nothing. The last datapoint we have is that there were issues with a helmet; issues related to his operation. Just saying that there is a major unknown that makes it difficult for anyone to judge the plussses and minuses. I will concede this - that riverboat pilot is actively recruiting suggests there is insider medical information that TW can play again. But I doubt anyone has any idea how he might actually perform post operation and after sitting out for so long. I agree with you that we bring him in as a best option in the short-run. But regardless, they need a plan B for the position.
 

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El....I have run through the same logic you outline and can't find fault with it. There is, however, one major unknown that does shift the equation: no one knows where TW is at physically (let alone mentally) after more than a year doing nothing. The last datapoint we have is that there were issues with a helmet; issues related to his operation.
And I would hope they'd do their due diligence long before re-signing him to an extension. I kinda thought that would go without saying.

As for doing nothing...word is he has spent significant time at the training facility where he and AP have worked out together for a few years now, so there are reports he has been working out. I have heard no report suggesting he's been living a sedentary lifestyle.
 

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I think El is right that TW is still one of the best LTs in the game. I also think he's right that the helmet thing was likely mostly BS designed to make sure he wouldn't be forced to suit up and play last year. And it's also possible that a year of not getting pounded may turn out to be a benefit if the Redskins do decide to retain/extend him.
 

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I was curious and checked the actual numbers. 20/32 are 1st round picks (.625) 9/12 playoff teams have a 1st round LT (.750) The 12 teams without a 1st round LT had a combined .484 win percentage, while the 20 that have a 1st rounder had a win percentage of .506

But to show why stats don't really mean as much as the numbers show, 2 divisions in the entire league have a 1st round LT on every team - the NFC East and the AFC West, and they combined for a whopping .430 win percentage, while the two divisions with the fewest 1st round LTs - the AFC East and the NFC South, enjoyed a combined .516 win percentage even though only 2 out of those 8 teams have a 1st round LT.


Buffalo - Dawkins - 2
Miami - Davenport - 4
New England - Wynn - 1
New York Jets - Beachum - 7

Baltimore - Stanley - 1
Cincinnati - Glenn - 2
Cleveland - Robinson - 1
Pittsburgh - Villanueva - Undrafted

Houston - Tunsil - 1
Indianapolis - Castonzo - 1
Jacksonville - Robinson - 2
Tennessee - Lewan - 1

Denver - Bolles - 1
Kansas City - Fisher - 1
Los Angeles Chargers - Okung - 1
Las Vegas - Miller - 1

Dallas - Smith - 1
New York Giants - Solder - 1
Philadelphia - Dillard - 1
Washington - Williams - 1

Chicago - Leno, Jr. - 7
Detroit - Decker - 1
Green Bay - Bakhtiari - 4
Minnesota - Reiff - 1

Atlanta - Matthews - 1
Carolina - Little - 2
New Orleans - Armstead - 3
Tampa Bay - Smith - 2

Arizona - Humphries - 1
Los Angeles Rams - Whitworth - 2
San Francisco - Staley - 1
Seattle - Brown - 1
 

Boone

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Impressed you went to the trouble of pulling numbers. I think it bears out aspects of both arguments. More teams go looking for their LT with first round picks and individual teams who have a 1st round pick at LT are slightly more likely to win than those that don't. But it's not an overwhelming edge.

I suspect as with most things in life - it's all about the individual. Stats are always relevant, but are a reflection of trends, not determinants of outcomes.
 

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You can’t rebuild the OL in one season unless you commit to Trent or Scherff.

Flowers is a free agent, for some reason Brucifer failed to include a team option on his deal for 2020.

As indicated Moses has been a liability on the right side.

So except for Rouillier we don’t have ANY givens right now.

By committing at LT that allows us to explore a change at RT.

Since it seems unlikely we trade down for a tackle, any change would have to come in free agency.

Unfortunately planning on the OL has been poor and a lot of that cap room is going to go to filling out the starting 5.

If Geron Christian had turned out to be something other than dog meat perhaps we could trade Trent and then simply resign Scherff.

But other than Wes Martin there aren’t any real OL prospects on the roster.
 

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If he’s even willing to consider a 2nd contract Scherff should be the priority - not a 32 year old who refused to show up. I’d give serious thought to trading TW and moving Scherff to LT which is where he played during the 2nd half of his college career. He’s big enough and strong enough to be serviceable there.
 

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Scherff is not an NFL tackle. They tried him at RT and Morgan Moses beat him out for the position. He's simply not a good enough athlete to play the outside. That's what makes NFL tackles so hard to find and why teams value them as they do quarterbacks and pass rushers.

Recall that Scherff was rated highly in 2015 because he was originally projected to tackle coming out of school.

The truth is the Redskins with Trent Williams or another high performing player at LT and Wes Martin at RG is a better combination for 2020 than one where we have a rookie #2 pick or a mid-level free agent starting at LT and sign Scherff to what he wants - namely, a contract at $15M that beats the crazy dollars that Norwell got.
 

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I’m aware that’s the conventional wisdom but I think that’s more a belief/opinion than a fact. He hasn’t had any opportunity to show what he can do - not as a rookie but as an established player. We might be surprised Bulldog.

I’m putting that out there as a possibility should they elect to trade Williams.

In all likelihood they will not be able to sign him to a 2nd contract at any position which is a much bigger loss than folks want to acknowledge.

I don’t really disagree with your assessment but it assumes Williams will come back and also ignores he is going to want additional big money to return. I’d rather overpay for a 25 year old guy just going into his 2nd contract.
 

riggins44

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I wonder about the wisdom of having so much cap tied up in two OL if you were to ink deals for Williams and Scherff. I know you can get creative in writing these deals, but just want us to be smart about this.
 

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