The Talent Arrow

[Voice_of_Reason]

Offensively we should be better, because of Tunsil, Deebo and JD with another year with KK. Seems like the games we lost we were kicking FGs that should have been TDs. I think we're better.

Defense, not sure where the sacks will come from, but we should be very stout against the run and our secondary should be a strength, as opposed to a glaring weakness like we began last season. Luvu and Wagner together again should also help.

Not sure if our record is as good, but I think we're a better team this year.

And we’re not done yet. There is still the draft.

The other thing, I think there is a good chance some of the draft picks from last year, notably Sinnot and McCaffery can develop and make larger contributions in year 2. Even some of the late round guys can improve. We had 9 rookies on the team last year. 2 were outstanding (Daniels and Mikey S.), two were either starters or played a lot (Coleman and Newton.). If 2 others really step up this year that’s a hell of a draft.

No idea what the record will be. But if we are the type of team we want to be, the schedule matters less.

 

[DWinzit]

And we’re not done yet. There is still the draft.

The other thing, I think there is a good chance some of the draft picks from last year, notably Sinnot and McCaffery can develop and make larger contributions in year 2. Even some of the late round guys can improve. We had 9 rookies on the team last year. 2 were outstanding (Daniels and Mikey S.), two were either starters or played a lot (Coleman and Newton.). If 2 others really step up this year that’s a hell of a draft.

No idea what the record will be. But if we are the type of team we want to be, the schedule matters less.

I would take that a step further to say we really need the other 2024 draft picks to step up. We need them to be relevant moving forward or we end out in the Rivera era over again, lots of wasted picks. They mostly need to be hits to at least some degree.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I would take that a step further to say we really need the other 2024 draft picks to step up. We need them to be relevant moving forward or we end out in the Rivera era over again, lots of wasted picks. They mostly need to be hits to at least some degree.

You’re never going to get all of your draft picks to hit.

McGee was hurt, but they liked him at LB. That’s a real possibility of improvement if he’s healthy.

Jean-Baptiste played in 12 games and started 1 due to injury. He was a 7th round pick and can develop.

McCaffery was in year 3 of being a WR. And they asked him to learn all the positions. Good experience for him in year 1, hopefully he can strop up in year 2.

Sinnot, we’ll see. He kindof got stuck behind Ertz who was playing really well. And it seemed the season got long on him.

But they’ve already basically hit on 4 of their first 5 picks with Sinnot the only one who really didn’t contribute.

That’s really pretty damn good for year 1.

 

[DWinzit]

You’re never going to get all of your draft picks to hit.

McGee was hurt, but they liked him at LB. That’s a real possibility of improvement if he’s healthy.

Jean-Baptiste played in 12 games and started 1 due to injury. He was a 7th round pick and can develop.

McCaffery was in year 3 of being a WR. And they asked him to learn all the positions. Good experience for him in year 1, hopefully he can strop up in year 2.

Sinnot, we’ll see. He kindof got stuck behind Ertz who was playing really well. And it seemed the season got long on him.

But they’ve already basically hit on 4 of their first 5 picks with Sinnot the only one who really didn’t contribute.

That’s really pretty damn good for year 1.

Agree, my point is we need to see improvement and more contributions from them. By bringing in more talent at some of the positions can't hold them back. They need to beat them out for more play time.

 

[burgold]

Ironically, the acquisition of Deebo might make McCaffrey's life easier. I hadn't really thought about it before, but probably the reason they asked to learn all the positions was twofold: 1) they needed someone at each of the positions and 2) Being as raw as he was they didn't know which one he might be best at. However, with Terry set at his role and Deebo a fixture at his that might allow Luke to focus on one role which might get him up to speed faster. He can now specialize.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Ironically, the acquisition of Deebo might make McCaffrey's life easier. I hadn't really thought about it before, but probably the reason they asked to learn all the positions was twofold: 1) they needed someone at each of the positions and 2) Being as raw as he was they didn't know which one he might be best at. However, with Terry set at his role and Deebo a fixture at his that might allow Luke to focus on one role which might get him up to speed faster. He can now specialize.

I think you’re right. I also think they just saw him as a project and so you throw as much at him and see what happens. Kindof like your point number 2 above.

Now they have that as evidence, maybe they find a role for him and get him to really focus on that role this off season.

He’s a good athlete and a hard worker.

I don’t think Deebo is going to play every snap, I think they’re going to have a few different packages. And one package could be more traditional al with McLaurin, N. Brown and McCaffery as the slot guy.

We’ll see. But I agree with you, I think he’s going to have an easier time this year. I do think they’re going to find a spot for him though and not ask him to be a rover.

 

[Boone]

I remember being in a math class once with a teacher who was really not good at math. She would show us a problem then fail to solve it five times. She would just get it wrong. After figuring it out once, she moved on to the next thing. It left me really confused. Luckily, my dad could supplement her lessons, but being taught something the wrong way five times and the right way once really hurt my ability to grow in the subject.

I think BSJ and a lot of former Washington players suffered from that. They got either bad coaching or the wrong coaching. That's why you saw so many players plateau or regress and so few improve season after season. It's also why I'm hopeful that this year, we've only seen the beginnings of what some of our rookies can do. On this same note, it's why I wish we had a better o-line coach. I think ours is okay. He's probably average, but I have a feeling he's not the guy who makes everyone realize their full potential.

I thought your 'overview' of where we are right now was spot on. This post though? Not so much for me.

Brother - our new talent evaluators turned over 61% of this roster in their first year, and pretty much will have completely replaced Rivera's roster by the time the dust settles this year. That speaks to the talent of the guys the Rivera regime brought here. We have one of the best coaching staffs in the NFL. They looked at the guys we had (BSJ being just one of them) and said 'Nah. These guys aren't it.'

It really is that simple.

Can coaching be a huge factor in an individual player's success or failure? Sure. But as my 'not so politically correct' Dad used to say, 'you can't polish a turd'.

We had a lot of turds.

 

[burgold]

My view is that a good teacher can raise the performance of a student by half a grade and a great one a full grade. So, Gibbs in his glory days could take a team of scabs and coach ‘em up good enough to beat a Pro-Bowl stacked roster of Cowboys.

In other words, while you cannot turn a turd into a diamond you can polish it up. Under a good coach’s tutelage, a third year player should be much better than he was in his rookie year.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I thought your 'overview' of where we are right now was spot on. This post though? Not so much for me.

Brother - our new talent evaluators turned over 61% of this roster in their first year, and pretty much will have completely replaced Rivera's roster by the time the dust settles this year. That speaks to the talent of the guys the Rivera regime brought here. We have one of the best coaching staffs in the NFL. They looked at the guys we had (BSJ being just one of them) and said 'Nah. These guys aren't it.'

It really is that simple.

Can coaching be a huge factor in an individual player's success or failure? Sure. But as my 'not so politically correct' Dad used to say, 'you can't polish a turd'.

We had a lot of turds.

I agree with this. I also agree with burgold. And you know how that makes me crazy, right?

I think you're 100% right, the talent evaluation by the late Allen (+Snyder + whoever else had a voice) and Ron was pitiful. And we had a lot of guys who were brought here, either FA or draft, who never should have been brought here. And there's only so much you can do with that, which is why we got "the pause" from Adam Peters. When asked what he thought of the current roster at his introductory presser, he paused for a full 3.5 seconds before saying something like, "we have some pieces but we have a lot of work to do."

So, talent was a major factor.

On the flip side, I also think coaching matters a ton, and there probably were some percentage of the guys we brought in who could have developed into good players but were ruined. I still, to this day, think Patrick Ramsey had a chance to be a competent starting NFL QB. And Spurrier destroyed him. I think Ron's staff destroyed the potential of a bunch of players also. The ones who could have had a chance, I think they destroyed because they were just plain bad coaches.

To me, it was the combination of the absolutely pathetic talent evaluation/roster construction + an abysmal coaching staff which led to where we were.

Which brings us to BSJ. I think that guy probably can play a little bit. He was one of the ones who survived the initial roster purge. Clearly Quinn/Whitt/Peters saw there was some potential. But to burgold's point, I don't think he was remotely developed well, and by the time Quinn's staff got their hands on him, he probably was damaged goods. And they found out they couldn't fix him, at least not in the timeframe they needed to fix him.

The one exception I would take to burgold is I think Bobby Johnson, the OL coach, is very good. He had nothing to work with in NY, and a dysfunctional situation. I think you can see evidence that the OL worked extremely well together, and the total was better than the sum of the parts. Coleman developed, Wylie looked competent, and in general, the unit did fine. The one game they were completely exposed was the NFCCG, and Cosmit was out and Trent Scott was facing possibly the best interior pass rusher in the league, and that was a recipe for disaster under any circumstance.

 

[burgold]

I would be overjoyed if you’re right about Johnson being a good o line coach.

 

[Bulldog]

If you told me a month ago we would have a franchise LT on the roster and still have our #1 and #2 picks in 2025 I wouldn’t have believed it.

With an asset like Daniels LT was the most important position to solidify for next season.

The fact we got a legit #2 receiver for a #5 pick is also a pleasant surprise.

To think Dyami was that player in our last game - it shows how much we have moved forward already.

If we can get pass rusher and corner with length in draft this will have been a very productive offseason.

 

[Primus Porcus]

If you told me a month ago we would have a franchise LT on the roster and still have our #1 and #2 picks in 2025 I wouldn’t have believed it.

With an asset like Daniels LT was the most important position to solidify for next season.

The fact we got a legit #2 receiver for a #5 pick is also a pleasant surprise.

To think Dyami was that player in our last game - it shows how much we have moved forward already.

If we can get pass rusher and corner with length in draft this will have been a very productive offseason.

I would say that the CB you want may already be on the roster, and his name is Lattimore. He walked into a defense that we all agree had it's struggles and got exposed at times, but I also don't think the door is closed on that 'experiment'. He may not have 'length' that you ask for, but at the end of the day, you're asking for length because well all equate that with effectiveness. At the end of the day, i dont care if he's got arms like a T-Rex, if he gets the job done, that's what I want.


The rest of your post is spot on, and it's something i think fans are glossing over when we look at the roster building...

 

[DWinzit]

I would be overjoyed if you’re right about Johnson being a good o line coach.

Me too! He will be given a much improved group this season even if we didn't add another player via draft or FA. I anticipate 1 or 2 additions through the draft.

While it's true Johnson wasn't given a great line in NY, they sucked bad (which of course was fine for Commanders Fans). I also hold it against hi that he was JDRs OL coach while he was HC, but that might just be me being a petty Washington fan.

AP and company did a lot of studying to create the "much improved" 2024 OL. It is a shame Cosmi went down and there were a few other injuries but Id bet if you could get JD alone and promise no one would know his response and asked him what he thought of the OL and OL coach it wouldn't be a glowing. JD's uncanny escapability and ability to stay remarkably healthy are the main reasons we aren't selecting near the top of the draft.

If the 2025 OL looks like shit out of the gate, Johnson should announce an early retirement. If they look improved and continue to improve over the season, I will admit my mistake and say he did a good job. He already has a nice group to work with.

 

[Anselmheifer]

I mean, we started last year with the worst group of corners in history and that really tanked our defense. In retrospect we also had nobody that could set an edge. Even with just the corners, the defense should be better. With our current personnel, I don’t think they are better than average, but average is better.

And on offense we should be a good bit better.we are better at WR, and critically, our worst OL last year played the most critical position on the line, and was on pace to lead the league in sacks allowed. We replaced him with a top 5 pass blocker, in his prime, with no health concerns.

in terms of roster evaluation,I wonder how good this roster would be with a top 12-15 QB. How many games would we have won with a guy like Purdue, Mayfield, or Kyler Murray at QB last year and then this year?

I think with one of those guys last year, we win 6 games, and this year, 9 or 10. So, not an awesome roster, but better than last year and not terrible.

 

[Chris]

For what it’s worth, Johnson was the TE coach under JDR with the Raiders not the OL coach.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I would be overjoyed if you’re right about Johnson being a good o line coach.

I think he did a good job last year. At least, we had a rookie develop, had good chemistry on the line, and they looked like a well-coached, prepared and competent unit.

His OLs in Buffalo were also good. Remember, Daboll poached him off the Bill's staff when he took the Giant's job. He had a good reputation.

Then things didn't go well in New York. But that could be due to circumstance, and also the fact their entire OL was hurt and he was plug and playing guys for 2 years.

I dunno. I kindof feel the Giants are a little bit like the Snyder Redskins at the moment. They fire coaches every other year, clearly have a meddling owner, and they have turmoil constantly. So I give Johnson a pass for the Giants, look what he did in Buffalo and what he did last year, and I like it.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I mean, we started last year with the worst group of corners in history and that really tanked our defense. In retrospect we also had nobody that could set an edge. Even with just the corners, the defense should be better. With our current personnel, I don’t think they are better than average, but average is better.

And on offense we should be a good bit better.we are better at WR, and critically, our worst OL last year played the most critical position on the line, and was on pace to lead the league in sacks allowed. We replaced him with a top 5 pass blocker, in his prime, with no health concerns.

in terms of roster evaluation,I wonder how good this roster would be with a top 12-15 QB. How many games would we have won with a guy like Purdue, Mayfield, or Kyler Murray at QB last year and then this year?

I think with one of those guys last year, we win 6 games, and this year, 9 or 10. So, not an awesome roster, but better than last year and not terrible.

BSJ + Forbes was a catastrophe to start the season. The CBs got better, though, as Forbes was removed from the lineup, Mikey S. took over one of the outside spots and Noah Igbinoghene played pretty well in the slot. Then they added Lattimore, and while he didn't play extremely well or consistently, he allowed them to bench BSJ, and that worked out ok.

If the combination of a healthy (big if) Lattimore + Mikey + Jonathan Jones works out, that could be a good group. They also re-signed Noah I. That should be much better than last year.

On the DL, there's no question they went with guys who they think are going to be able to limit Barkley and the Eagles rushing attack. The question is, where are the sacks going to come from. I don't know. But I think they'll get a guy in the draft, and then they're going to have to be creative with pressures. They do have LBs and safeties who can blitz. So we'll see how it works out.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Me too! He will be given a much improved group this season even if we didn't add another player via draft or FA. I anticipate 1 or 2 additions through the draft.

While it's true Johnson wasn't given a great line in NY, they sucked bad (which of course was fine for Commanders Fans). I also hold it against hi that he was JDRs OL coach while he was HC, but that might just be me being a petty Washington fan.

AP and company did a lot of studying to create the "much improved" 2024 OL. It is a shame Cosmi went down and there were a few other injuries but Id bet if you could get JD alone and promise no one would know his response and asked him what he thought of the OL and OL coach it wouldn't be a glowing. JD's uncanny escapability and ability to stay remarkably healthy are the main reasons we aren't selecting near the top of the draft.

If the 2025 OL looks like shit out of the gate, Johnson should announce an early retirement. If they look improved and continue to improve over the season, I will admit my mistake and say he did a good job. He already has a nice group to work with.

The thing is, the OL never really looked over-matched. And the talent was just "ok."

- They had a rookie Left Tackle, who missed the entire off-season with an injury, and they worked him in over the first quarter of the season, as he rotated with Lucas
- Allegretti is fine, but he' smore of a good backup than starter. He plays hard and knows what he's doing. But he really shouldn't be starting.
- Biadacz is really good, but he got REALLY banged up in the middle of the season, and had to miss a couple games, and that was a REAL problem because Dieter stinks.
- Cosmi is good. Probably the best on the line, and he got hurt in the playoffs.
- Wylie looked fine. Think about how Wylie looked in 2023. Going from that to "fine" was a huge improvement. And they seemingly want to bring him back only as a backup.

The talent on the OL was worse than the production of the group. There is a saying that the "whole is less than the sum of the parts." Which means when you add everything together, the product is worse. That's been a Washington problem for years.

I think the OL was exactly the opposite. The whole was greater than the sum of the parts. The parts weren't great, and they played together and were better than you would have expected.

Some of that is on Kliff and scheme, some is on the players, but I think you have to give Johnson some credit too. He's the one who works with them daily.

Just a note on the run game: I think the run blocking suffered at the end of the season, however, I also think Ekler being out for 5 or 6 games, and Robinson just not being great and wearing down were as much of a part of that as anything. There were some holes and the RBs didn't hit them. Which made the blocking look worse than it was.

Gee, I didn't think today would be "full throated defense of Brian Johnson day." But here we are.

 

[MartinC]

I would make the case that offense got better. Seems like many posters on here agree - and the offense was ranked 6th by yards per game (369.6) and 5th by points per game (28.5) to start with.

Daniels should be even better in his 2nd year in the same system plus we added two blue chip players by trade in Tunsil and Samuels. The O’line which was a weakness is arguably now a strength with a Pro Bowl LT allowing us to slide protections away from him and help in side or at RT, Herbig is a nice signing and adds depth and one of Allegretti or Wylie could end up as depth as well. Samuels might never get back to 2021 form but if he can be kept healthy (less running touches) he makes defense defend us differently and will open up things all around him.

An already elite O should be even better.

Concern is defense. Not sure its got better, especially in regards to pressure on the QB. We were middle of the pack last season in regards to yards per game allowed at 13 (327.9). But that is deceiving in itself - we were 28th in points per game allowed (28.5 - same as we scored which underscores how many close game we had which could have gone either way).

My view is if we want double digit wins again we have to improve the D - and we play some very good offenses next season. Still a lot of work to do there for me.

I think I agree with arguments that our front 7 got better against the run. Seems like the plan is to use Kinslaw as a bid edge and he will be/should be much better at Fowler at setting an edge. But that is a low bar. We added more and better depth along the D’line but Allen is still a good DT and he has left. Newton should improve though in his second year and he flashed as a rookie.

Question is where is the pass rush coming from? We need an edge who can create pressure.

Corner is still a big question mark. A lot depends on if Lattimore can get/stay healthy and get back to something close to his best, if he can we should be at least decent at corner. If he cant …

Safety is a wash do far for me. Chinn made some good plays in the box but was not great in deep coverage. If we could get a true FS I would see Martin playing more in the box and Will Harris is probably a wash with Chinn anyway.

Draft and second wave of free agency is going to matter for the D. Find an edge who can create pressure and maybe another corner who can play outside and we might be in much better shape.

Need to shave 5 point per game off last season. Do that and with our O we will be back in the playoffs.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

The one exception I would take to burgold is I think Bobby Johnson, the OL coach, is very good. He had nothing to work with in NY, and a dysfunctional situation. I think you can see evidence that the OL worked extremely well together, and the total was better than the sum of the parts. Coleman developed, Wylie looked competent, and in general, the unit did fine. The one game they were completely exposed was the NFCCG, and Cosmit was out and Trent Scott was facing possibly the best interior pass rusher in the league, and that was a recipe for disaster under any circumstance.

I recall many plays in the second half of the year when Coleman's technique looked really, really bad. OK, he is a rookie, but in that second half of the year you hope that good coaching is starting to take root.
He had happy feet and was left in the dust in more than just the NFCCG.

The masking of that occurs when JD5 smoothly steps around the blitzer or avoids the rush. It was really hard to evaluate the OL and OL coach this year, but specifically focusing on Coleman with a very narrow view of "how was his technique on a play-to-play basis" - NOT even saying, he has to "win" the battle as a rookie, but just focusing on the fundamentals under his control - I didn't think there was good consistency late in the year and that was disheartening when I evaluate Bobby Johnson.

See, when you look at unit performance, there can be some concerns and the "coach vs talent" question is certainly an issue. However, when you look at a single rookie in isolation, and you see what appears to be correctible problems happening repeatedly even late in the season - I feel like that cuts the noise a bit and leaves me with a concern on the coaching.

^^ my 2-cents. This is from recollection too, so I definitely appreciate any correction anyone has with data I hope, even if it is a bit from memory.