The Talent Arrow

[burgold]

It's premature to post this thread, but it's what I've been thinking about this morning so I'm going to start it and we can update as we go through the off season.

The question of this thread is which direction is our talent arrow pointed? Last year, we were a try-hard group that overachieved, but a common worry throughout the season was that we just weren't talented enough. So, how are we doing?

1) Has our number of blue chip talents gone up?
2) Which units have been improved or are worse?
3) Is the overall talent level of this team going up or down?

1) At this very early stage of the offseason, I'd say our blue chip talent is +1. Tunsil gives us an elite player on the O Line. Daniels, McLaurin, Way, and Wagner (?) remain our only other blue chippers.

2) OL and WR looks to have slightly improved. Deebo is more talented than Noah and OZ. WR is an incomplete grade though because I think we will sign or draft at least two more players who will be expected to contribute. The OL is headed up with Tunsil, but the question of depth and how we replace Cosmi remains. We have options on the squad, but we don't know how well they'll do the job. At the moment, losing Lucas hurts. Given the loss and depth and the unresolved nature of RT and RG, I think the arrow is pointing up, but not at a steep angle. TE and running back look unchanged. DLine may have regressed. Allen for Kinlaw looks to be a wash. We may have even lost talent when comparing players. Fowler contributed ten sacks and those are gone. We haven't addressed edge yet (there's time). Dbacks have gotten worse. We lost Chinn who was a leader and played well and we haven't signed or drafted anyone left.

3) I think the overall talent has gone slightly up. We did a good job re-signing our priority vets and Getting an A+ talent like Tunsil overcomes the loss of B-level talents like Chinn and C-level talents like Dyami and Lucas. We still have a long way to go to level up the talent on this team, but we're only one day into free agency and still have the draft. This story hasn't been written yet.

Even so, I think overall we are better today than we were yesterday.

 

[Neophyte]

I think it is too early to tell where we are talent-wise verses 2024.

While we have resigned all of our guys I really wanted back (except for Chinn), my excitement there is tempered by the fact that all those guys are a year older and none of them were young to begin with. We have all watched players in their early to mid-30s drop off the performance cliff almost overnight. So while guys like Wagner and Ertz killed it last year and I expect more of the same this year, I know the clock is ticking and I hope it doesn't run out in October.

The O-Line is the one place I feel good saying the arrow is pointing up. The Tunsil trade is a force multiplier because Coleman won't be replaced so much as change position. I expect the opening day O-Line to be Tunsil, Allagretti, Biadasz, Wylie, Coleman.

The defense is weaker today than it was for the NFC Championship. Allen may not have been a game-wrecker but he is superior to Kinlow, assuming similar use cases. Chinn was a leader on this defense and a guy who could serve as something of a hybrid safety-backer. Losing him downgrades this secondary even considering that we have yet to see a healthy Lattimore in the line up. We have also lost Fowler's double-digit sack totals and I don't currently see where the rush is coming from (maybe Kinlow in the Legion of Boom "Elephant End" role?). If we are honest, even with Fowler's sack production we didn't get enough pressure last year. I'm currently expecting that #29 pick to go to the pass rush (unless we trade down to acquire more picks).

EDIT - I totally forgot about QB. Mariotta was on a 1-year deal. I don't see a real option for the #2 job that is as good as Mariotta so if we don't get him back, we lose points there too.

 

[Kel Varnsen]

I was thinking about something similar this morning. On the O-line, we moved from Lucas to Tunsil. That’s a huge upgrade. For the WR, we upgraded from Brown, Brown, and Zaccheus to Debo. Regardless of if we bring back Noah or Zaccheus, that position was upgraded.

Allen to Kinlaw, we will see what happens. Allen was great until he was just good. But the injury kept him out. Ki law playing just as wel, but for 17 games would be an upgrade. But that’s too early to tell on that front. So for now, I will call it a wash. Same for Chinn to Harris. They are at least comparable, so until we see the results, that too is a wash.

What will be interesting to see is if Peters and Co. can upgrade any other positions. We know the defense needs to be upgraded, and so far we think we are replacement level at best.

I do agree with Neophyte about the year older issue. Ertz and Wagner were great and they 100% should have been re-signed. But I often think back to London Fletcher and how he stayed one year too long. I worry a little about Wagner in that regard, but I still have high hopes for him this year.

But so far, the positions where moves have been made, it has been a net upgrade for sure.

 

[burgold]

On DC sports radio, they were making the case that so the talent arrow has gone down on defense so far. I can see the case, but I'm not sure if I agree. They're case was that Wagner was a year older, and both Allen and Chinn are superior players than the guys we replaced them with.

Now, I can make the argument that Allen is no longer a superior player. His play had been in decline for two years and his reputation is more based on memory than current production. I have a feeling that Chinn is better than Will. However, I think we could see growth from Sainristil, Luvu, and others who now have two years in the system and are either in their prime or are in their growing years.

But I can also see their point.

On offense, the two players we acquired are upgrades.

 

[method man]

On DC sports radio, they were making the case that so the talent arrow has gone down on defense so far. I can see the case, but I'm not sure if I agree. They're case was that Wagner was a year older, and both Allen and Chinn are superior players than the guys we replaced them with.

Now, I can make the argument that Allen is no longer a superior player. His play had been in decline for two years and his reputation is more based on memory than current production. I have a feeling that Chinn is better than Will. However, I think we could see growth from Sainristil, Luvu, and others who now have two years in the system and are either in their prime or are in their growing years.

But I can also see their point.

On offense, the two players we acquired are upgrades.

I think they go sign guys still sitting out there to 1 year deals and this could change. Z. Smith would be a huge upgrade over Fowler and a guy like Yiadom would be an upgrade over both BSJ and Davis. Tomlinson would be a huge upgrade to Carl Davis, Phil Mathis, Sheldon Day, etc

 

[burgold]

Saw VOR's post a moment ago and thought it might be time to bump this as we see more of how the puzzle is being laid out.

I don't think there are any areas which got worse.

QB: same
RB: so far, the same. But draft upcoming
TE: probably will be the same
WR: better (Deebo)
OL: better (Tunsil, and a few of the other additions could play, and we might still draft a guy)
DL: overall better, lacks edge rusher
LB: same
Safety: I think this is a question mark, but probably either the same. If there's one spot which might not be as good, this is it.
CB: better (Jonathan Jones)
ST (all the same)

Is it like leaps and bounds better? Maybe not. But I don't think it's worse, and I think the two things they set out to do, get another legit WR and stock up on guys who can stop the run, they've done.

 

[burgold]

My take:

QB: Slight improvement. (Daniels should be better with another year in the system)
RB: No change. (Possible regression if Ekeler decides to hang it up because of concussions)
TE: same
WR: better (Deebo)
OL: better (Tunsil, and I think better overall depth. Though I suspect we lost a bit when we lost Lucas.)
DL: Better against the rush. Perhaps worse against the pass.
LB: same
Safety: A little worse, but I'm not sure.
CB: better (Jonathan Jones)
ST (all the same)

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

We started the season with Forbes and BSJ as the starting CBs. If Lattimore can be anything close to what he was before and with the additon of Jones, the retention of Iggy and the ability to move Sainristill to his natural position in the slot those are all big upgrades.

Everyone knows my feelings on Jon Allen, even though I'm skeptical about the DL signings I don't see a drop off. Fowler was terrible against the run and if nothing else we have improved the run defense which was by far the team's biggest weakness. The more I read about Harris the more I am convinced he is a slight upgrade over Chinn who struggled in coverage.

We know nothing about Magee but if the coaches are right that is new talent. And of course this is not the final roster, there is still the draft and possible late free agent additions.

 

[Discobob]

CB: better (Jonathan Jones AND NO BSJ)

You forgot the most important part!

 

[burgold]

Poor BSJ.

Apparently, no one around here wants a bacon, salami, and jelly sandwich.

 

[SkinsFTW]

That is interesting.

I always thought it was an acronym for Below Serviceable Jabroni.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

My take:

QB: Slight improvement. (Daniels should be better with another year in the system)
RB: No change. (Possible regression if Ekeler decides to hang it up because of concussions)
TE: same
WR: better (Deebo)
OL: better (Tunsil, and I think better overall depth. Though I suspect we lost a bit when we lost Lucas.)
DL: Better against the rush. Perhaps worse against the pass.
LB: same
Safety: A little worse, but I'm not sure.
CB: better (Jonathan Jones)
ST (all the same)

I don't think the RBs are going to be the same after the draft. What I don't know is HOW different they will be. Do they stick with Robinson as the premier back and then add a complementary piece or do they add a guy they think is the RB1, and that pushes BRob to RB2 and Ekler stays in his role.

I think if Ekler was going to hang it up, he would have.

OL: I really like the Herbig signing, for whatever reason. Tunsil pushes Coleman (who I think is good and should improve with a full off-season) to RT. All of these talking heads who think he is going to go to guard, I'm not sure. I think they believe he's a tackle, and they want him at tackle because it's easier to find guards than tackles, either right or left. Keim said he was called by members of the team after they drafted Coleman and they told him they saw him as a tackle. Nothing he did last year would indicate he just can't play tackle at all and HAS to move inside.

I think that pushes Wylie into RG until Cosmi is back. And it's very possible Herbig and Allegretti battle for the LG spot.

I also don't think they want to entirely disrupt what was a pretty cohesive group that played better than the sum of it's parts.

I was Lucas' biggest fan, but I think we could be swapping Lucas in the backup swing tackle role to Wylie in the backup swing tackle role, and that's at the least a wash, and in that role Wylie could be better.

If we end up with Tunsil, Allegretti/Herbig, Biadacz, Cosmi, Coleman (after Cosmi returns) that would be a pretty good group.

WR: Deebo, assuming health and motivation (and I think he'll be motivated), changes the entire dynamic of that group. It's going to pull coverage his direction and free things up for McLaurin and Noah Brown. I don't think they're done at WR. I think they are going to add a guy or two, maybe FAs and maybe through the draft (especially if they can trade back and pick up a pick or two). I also think McCafferty could take a huge leap forward in year 2.

TE: I'm fine with Ertz being back, but it would really be nice to have a stetch-the-field TE. Bates being back is really good.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

You forgot the most important part!

I think BSJ gets a bad rap, and I blame it on Rivera.

The cupboard was so bare, BSJ was forced to play the #1 CB spot, and he's just not a #1 CB. He can't defend the top WR 1:1. He just can't. I think he'd be fine as a rotational guy and a backup, but what he was asked to do he couldn't. But he tried his best.

And I blame Ron because he picked Forbes to be a starting CB, and he just couldn't play. That move just completely blew up the entire secondary for 2 years.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

I think BSJ gets a bad rap, and I blame it on Rivera.

The cupboard was so bare, BSJ was forced to play the #1 CB spot, and he's just not a #1 CB. He can't defend the top WR 1:1. He just can't. I think he'd be fine as a rotational guy and a backup, but what he was asked to do he couldn't. But he tried his best.

And I blame Ron because he picked Forbes to be a starting CB, and he just couldn't play. That move just completely blew up the entire secondary for 2 years.

Last year he got some kind of crazy rep for DPI too, and he didn't help himself by not turning his head around at all.
I didn't understand if it was him or the coaches but it was maddening to watch.

However, it is really hard to tackle AJ Brown in open space, and BSJ made the game-saving tackle against him in that 2nd Eagles game. He made similar plays in the past; true, not as plentiful as DPI, but I thought he had some of the tools needed. I expected him to take a bigger step forward this year. That is why I do wonder about our coaches, because there was a ton of DPI across the whole secondary; it was strange. That is how it seemed to me at least; I think Mikey managed to stay clear but that would be an outlier in the data potentially.

 

[method man]

My take:

QB: Slight improvement. (Daniels should be better with another year in the system)
RB: No change. (Possible regression if Ekeler decides to hang it up because of concussions)
TE: same
WR: better (Deebo)
OL: better (Tunsil, and I think better overall depth. Though I suspect we lost a bit when we lost Lucas.)
DL: Better against the rush. Perhaps worse against the pass.
LB: same
Safety: A little worse, but I'm not sure.
CB: better (Jonathan Jones)
ST (all the same)

True but I think we have the worst DE corps in the conference outside of Arizona, Carolina and Atlanta

 

[burgold]

True but I think we have the worst DE corps in the conference outside of Arizona, Carolina and Atlanta

Hard to believe, isn't it? We invested so much into the Dline and were such paper tigers.

 

[DWinzit]

I think BSJ gets a bad rap, and I blame it on Rivera.

The cupboard was so bare, BSJ was forced to play the #1 CB spot, and he's just not a #1 CB. He can't defend the top WR 1:1. He just can't. I think he'd be fine as a rotational guy and a backup, but what he was asked to do he couldn't. But he tried his best.

And I blame Ron because he picked Forbes to be a starting CB, and he just couldn't play. That move just completely blew up the entire secondary for 2 years.

I feel like in his first year he played fairly well, especially for a rookie. He then went down hill other than an occasional nice play. It's easy to blame Ron because he proved to be incompetent as a HC or even a DC. The whole organization sucked and didn't do him or any other of our players justice or allow them to improve. Last year he did not improve with the new regime

All of that aside, when I heard BSJ was signed by the Chargers, I felt our team became better. It was like our handicap was removed, all of those interference calls ugh. I wish him good good luck moving forward but wont miss him even if he becomes a pro bowler

 

[burgold]

I remember being in a math class once with a teacher who was really not good at math. She would show us a problem then fail to solve it five times. She would just get it wrong. After figuring it out once, she moved on to the next thing. It left me really confused. Luckily, my dad could supplement her lessons, but being taught something the wrong way five times and the right way once really hurt my ability to grow in the subject.

I think BSJ and a lot of former Washington players suffered from that. They got either bad coaching or the wrong coaching. That's why you saw so many players plateau or regress and so few improve season after season. It's also why I'm hopeful that this year, we've only seen the beginnings of what some of our rookies can do. On this same note, it's why I wish we had a better o-line coach. I think ours is okay. He's probably average, but I have a feeling he's not the guy who makes everyone realize their full potential.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

I think BSJ deserves every bit of his reputaton and we are far better off without him. I can't blame RR when he had the exact same problem last season when he was not asked to be a #1. Dude just never locates the ball and resorts to grabbing. Are some of the calls unfair? Perhaps but he made his bed by commiting so many legit penalties.

As for another earlier comments I don't think the OL improvements are minor at all. We've already discussed what the Tunsil signing means not only for the LT spot but we can see upgrades at several spots by moving Colemane with the addition of Herbig. I think this unit has improved a lot and has more depth.

As for WRs when you add Deebo Samuels in a contract year I'm not sure how that can not be considered a big upgrade to that unit as well.

 

[Hail Raiser]

Offensively we should be better, because of Tunsil, Deebo and JD with another year with KK. Seems like the games we lost we were kicking FGs that should have been TDs. I think we're better.

Defense, not sure where the sacks will come from, but we should be very stout against the run and our secondary should be a strength, as opposed to a glaring weakness like we began last season. Luvu and Wagner together again should also help.

Not sure if our record is as good, but I think we're a better team this year.