This is Terry’s Kobayashi Maru.
The no-win scenario and his agent has backed him into a path that doesn’t have a graceful face-saving off ramp. The team holds all the cards.
He either signs for a bunch less than he wants and is forced to admit his true market value.
He could agree a trade, but it’s clear what his market value is. It’s been pretty established the the league execs have him pegged at a low range he’s not happy with. There might be a team out there desperate enough to throw money at him, but it’s not likely to be a contender. So if he wants a chance at a chip, we’re the best option.
Or he plays this season under current contract, but unless he absolutely balls out and wins Super Bowl MVP he’s only going to be in the same position or worse next year…only a year older.
If he continues to hold out and misses games, he starts losing cash in big chunks. Lose enough of them and it starts negateing a big chunk of any pay rise he might get. Plus, if we ball out without him, it weakens his hand. Even holding out just two or three games would also affect his stats for the year. He’s only just snuck over 1000 yards last year, so not playing could see him break that streak. Is anyone going to pay a 31 year old WR coming off an 800 yard season, with a probable drop in TD production too, even the $24m that’s being bandied around this year?
As a perception most won’t see it as a shortened season, they’ll just look at the raw numbers and see inevitable decline. It would be even worse if, God forbid, he suffered even a minor injury to drop those numbers futher.
As VOC said, likely his only leverage left is to sit the first two games and pray we stink. That’s a pretty big gamble though, as those games could be two of the easiest on our schedule.
His best option is to sign now.