The All Things Terry Thread

[Voice_of_Reason]

Keim's podcast today.

A. He talked to multiple sources on it. They two sides are very firm on their positions. They aren't close to a deal. No serious progress yet on a deal.

B. The team considers that he's starting the new contract at 31 as a relevant point. Age is a factor to the team.

C. Terry is doing a hold in.

D. Terry firm on his value is equal to certain WRs who are getting paid (Keim doesn't elaborate but others have so I gather this means the AJ Brown, Ceedee Lamb types)

E. Keim wouldn't be surprised if this went on for weeks unless both sides give in some.

Yeah, he mentioned something to the effect of E above in his conversation with Bram.

Terry and Terry's side is going to have to come around to the fact they are going to have to move more than the team because they are in a lower leverage position. I think the team might be willing to move if Terry's side moves first.

If Terry's side doesn't think age is a "thing" then that's going to be a real problem in the long term because it is. And the team would be foolish to not consider it.

 

[Califan007]

It's subjective. But outside of some of our fans, I think we'd be hard pressed to find anyone who would put Terry over or as the same as Ceedee who was ranked by the players as the 13th best player in the league last year, that's quite the complement. Coaches-GMs ranked him higher than Terry, etc.

But OK for arguments sake, lets say they are the same player. And lol I know you are the wrong person to argue this since you don't from what i recall think that age is a factor but almost everyone else does. You got Ceedee playing at 26 this year. You got Terry under contract at 30 years old. But wants a new contract for 31. That's a dichotomy even if they were the same player. And I'll go out on a limb and say its obvious enough that Ceedee is the better player that its not much of a debate within league circles. But to Terry's credit he's not a mile behind him.

At a minimum I doubt Terry's best football is coming down the road at lets say at 32. Guys Ceedee's age rarely decline.

You’re bringing up stuff that I either never mentioned or already said I didn’t care about, though.

If the argument is that Mclaurin has never been good enough to put up the numbers Lamb put up during his “monster year,” then I strongly disagree and think a valid argument can be made that Terry showed last year that he definitely could have.

If the argument is that Lamb is better than Terry because Terry could never put up the numbers Lamb did during his “monster year,” then I would say that conclusion is based on faulty logic because Terry did show he could put up those types of numbers last year. Lamb may still be better, but not based on that argument.

When discussing QBs, the top 4 are pretty much set in stone—but #5 through #12 can all be ranked in any number of ways and a valid argument could be made for all those different rankings. I think it’s similar with WRs, there are those top 4 or 5 that are undeniable, then a jumbled group of excellent WRs to fill in the next 6 or so spots. I think Terry is in that jumbled group, and honestly don’t give a rats ass if he’s considered #6 or #11 or anything in between.

Because I agree with Gruden from that article I quoted: there are 4 elite positions on the team and WR is one of them…pay the guys who put points on the board. And last season Ja’Marr Chase was the only WR to put more points on the board than Terry Mclaurin. Do whatever you can to pay the dude..just do it smartly lol. And hopefully don’t end up getting spooked by the But-He’s-30 boogie man. To quote Indiana Jones: It’s not the years, it’s the mileage.

 

[burgold]

I think Terry is in that second group of receiver. He's not elite, but he is a true number one and very good. Like I said, I think he's top ten. Part of that is that he produced at a pro bowl level and has consistently despite having no help. No help at QB (until last year.) No help in terms of a secondary weapon that was good enough to draw coverage away from him. He could always be bracketed, double teamed, etc.

That said, he's not the guy who's better than everyone else's number one corner. He's not the guy that consistently takes over a game. He's just a very good receiver. On a scale of 1-10, he's probably an 8.5 or so.

So, I do think Terry shoud be paid as a number one, but he shouldn't necessarily expect to equal or better the contracts of the Jeffersons, Chases, or guys that are top of the elite curve because he hasn't been that guy. He's a guy that is a borderline Probowler and (I think) a top ten receiver. On the team's side, he's a top ten receiver who's facing an age decline. Probably not this year, maybe not next year, but one that's coming.

So, I'm neither going to downgrade Terry nor side against the team. The team has to protect their interests. Terry knows this is his last chance at the big money because if teams are balking at 30, then they will really balk at 34 or 35.

 

[RedWolf]

My experience in life is that when two people, or organizations, are in discord that both need to bend to reach a common goal. Being stubborn gets neither side anywhere.

You have to give to receive

 

[Califan007]

Again, I can't think of anyone aside from some Commanders fans who think Terry => Ceedee.

But like I said, I'll play along for kicks. So if the point is Terry could very well be but his darn QBs even Jayden don't throw to him as often as they should -- so we don't really know if Ceedee is truly better. lol, OK, fine. It's irrelevant to the point. For two reasons. No one thinks (aside maybe from a handful of people) that the age of 26 and 31 is the same at WR.

And also, you can't really argue context to that extent in big contracts. The numbers are what the numbers are. Is someone going to say hey i got 200 at bats and hit 15 homeruns. this other dude hit 30 homeruns but at 400 at bats. So lets consider our stats the same thing because if I got those same at bats the results would be the same. It's still conjecture. As far as I've seen, contracts don't work that way.

Like I said if 26 years old is the same as 31 -- maybe it would be a more interesting discussion.

You are hung up on who’s better even though I never bring it up. You brought up that Lamb is better at getting open. I countered with stats that don’t seem to show that he gets any more open than Terry does, let alone get open more to warrant 64 more targets…so something else must be at play. So there’s nothing to “play along” with. Either:

-Show how I misread or misinterpreted the stats, or

- provide alternate stats that are more accurate, or

- say “Oh, looks like Lamb does not get more open” lol

 

[Conn]

It may be an improvement. It could be that the loss of money is getting to him. Therefore he's attempting to create a favorable image by showing up at camp but has full intentions of continuing to hold in to not be fined. Agree with the notion that Peters won't be swayed. This is a business about a team not 1 player. Peters will recognize this and not let emotions dictate. If he expects elite wr money, he won't be signed this year. No way Peters gives in on this.

He and his agent are physically in the building, it’s without a doubt an improvement on the previous situation. Now, that doesn’t guarantee a deal. But reasonable positivity is warranted.

 

[Conn]

In 2023 when Lamb was targeted 181 times, he had an average separation of 2.7 yards from the nearest defender at the time of completion/incompletion.

In 2024 when Terry was only targeted 117 times, he had an average separation of 2.7 yards from the nearest defender at the time of completion/incompletion.

Last year, the WRs who were most targeted were not the ones who were most open. Drake London had 35 more targets than Terry yet had less average separation per target.

There’s got to be more to the number of targets a WR gets than “he’s just open more”. Offensive scheme, score (playing from ahead or from behind), playcalling, etc, etc…

This is another case of stats that don’t mean anything, or are being misused or misrepresented (I’m not saying you’re doing this on purpose, as the way you’re using the stat is intuitive—if imo incorrect). Advanced stat guys tried with “average separation” for years. It’s not predictive, it’s descriptive. Because (again, maybe people are seeing a trend here) it’s actually a QB stat. Great WR’s can create separation regardless of QB but timing and placement of passes from elite QB play can enhance the average separation of a lesser WR by hitting the target perfectly, while better WR’s with worse QB’s can potentially create more separation while receiving less accurate/perfectly placed passes.

Anyone with eyes can see that in terms of skillset McLaurin does not separate as well as Lamb. That’s independent of when and where the ball actually arrives from the QB on any given target. That’s just one facet of WR play, luckily. And it can be compensated for via QB skill and offensive play design.

 

[burgold]

He and his agent are physically in the building, it’s without a doubt an improvement on the previous situation. Now, that doesn’t guarantee a deal. But reasonable positivity is warranted.

Hire Terry's agent's son at one of Harris' businesses for a six figure salary and then sign Terry to a 20m/year deal. Everyone's happy

 

[burgold]

This is another case of stats that don’t mean anything, or are being misused or misrepresented (I’m not saying you’re doing this on purpose, as the way you’re using the stat is intuitive—if imo incorrect). Advanced stat guys tried with “average separation” for years. It’s not predictive, it’s descriptive. Because (again, maybe people are seeing a trend here) it’s actually a QB stat. Great WR’s can create separation regardless of QB but timing and placement of passes from elite QB play can enhance the average separation of a lesser WR by hitting the target perfectly, while better WR’s with worse QB’s can potentially create more separation while receiving less accurate/perfectly placed passes.

Anyone with eyes can see that in terms of skillset McLaurin does not separate as well as Lamb. That’s independent of when and where the ball actually arrives from the QB on any given target. That’s just one facet of WR play, luckily. And it can be compensated for via QB skill and offensive play design.

While this is probably true, Sam Howell, for example, had half the time to throw before being pressured that Dak did and by the end of the season was so shell shocked that he couldn't even see the field no matter how open a receiver was. This sadly was not an anomaly during the Rivera years.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Yeah, he mentioned something to the effect of E above in his conversation with Bram.

Terry and Terry's side is going to have to come around to the fact they are going to have to move more than the team because they are in a lower leverage position. I think the team might be willing to move if Terry's side moves first.

If Terry's side doesn't think age is a "thing" then that's going to be a real problem in the long term because it is. And the team would be foolish to not consider it.

Yep.

You are hung up on who’s better even though I never bring it up. You brought up that Lamb is better at getting open. I countered with stats that don’t seem to show that he gets any more open than Terry does, let alone get open more to warrant 64 more targets…so something else must be at play. So there’s nothing to “play along” with. Either:

-Show how I misread or misinterpreted the stats, or

- provide alternate stats that are more accurate, or

- say “Oh, looks like Lamb does not get more open” lol

Where did I say you misread or misnterpreted stats? Specific to contracts, the numbers matter. So for example Ceedee Lamb catching 100 plus balls in three seasons including even with backup QBs. That number matters more IMO than arguing theoritically about why said player could be a 100 catch WR if, etc. Showing that many 31 plus year old WRs have drop offs -- matters more IMO than the player saying they will be different. The actual numbers are relevant and trump theory.

As for why do I think Ceedee is better than Terry. I just do from watching a lot of both guys. I was arguably the biggest Terry fan on ES BEFORE we drafted him. I watched a lot of him. And defended the pick in detail. And love the player. I spent a lot of time watching Ceedee both in college and the pros. And the short version of why I think he's better is that Ceedee IMO is more consistent, more dynamic, tougher to shut down -- more dangerous. I am not on an island on this. Coaches-GMS voted Ceedee over Terry. So did the players. Maybe this year the players will change that, should be interesting where Terry had his peak season with Jayden and Ceedee had a relatively down year playing with backup QBs. Albiet Ceedee has his experience with backups because Dak has had his injuries in the past.

As for seperation skills specifically, I can't vouch one way or another so if that's the only point you want to rest on, lol, fine I'll call it an unknown-draw. I'd have to watch Terry and watch Ceedee with all 22 for multiple games. I don't think there is a seperation number gospel stat. Otherwise you'd hear that stat much more.

As its been mentioned in the context of Luke McCaffrey, his seperation numbers at one point in the season were insane yet they weren't throwing him the ball. So what gives? As Logan Paulsen among others pointed out, its hard to compute seperation because context is everything -- in Luke's situation he was open for short passes-screens and hitches and he wasn't hugged the same way than he would be going down the field or short passes where you are finding holes in crowded zones on slants, etc. So he dismissed the number.

As for Terry's rep as a seperator, its been pointed out by Logan (if I recall right) and some reporters who have talked to some in the NFL about Terry, they love the player but didn't feel seperation skills is his strength -- it just pops up from time to time in discussions about the team. lol, I didn't take notes expecting a debate about it later on. And if you don't want to believe that or don't trust the sources, that's cool. Either way, for me to really dig down personally on something like that I'd have to rewatch games and zone in on that specifically. I've done that on other players on other issues but don't care enough to do it here.

I don't care enough to argue with you about it. If you want to contend that Ceedee Lamb and Terry are equals. Or that age -- 30 plus doesn't matter. Have at it. My only point is you are in the minority on both points. And you have zero chance of convincing me on either point so we are wasting each others time on those specific debates.

 

[Conn]

While this is probably true, Sam Howell, for example, had half the time to throw before being pressured that Dak did and by the end of the season was so shell shocked that he couldn't even see the field no matter how open a receiver was. This sadly was not an anomaly during the Rivera years.

Agreed. Which is why “average separation” is only interesting as an addendum to further context—QB talent, time to throw (also a QB stat), pass protection (also a QB stat, but modified by OL talent), etc.

But what it definitely isn’t: it is not a stat able to isolate WR talent at actually gaining separation. Because it’s inseparable from when and where the ball actually arrives from the QB in the equation. Most football advanced analytics are like this, unlike baseball. Very difficult to unweave the scarf so to speak and actually isolate individual performance.

Which is fun because then we all get to say “well my eyes tell me THIS” and argue about it forever, me included. lol

 

[Hail Raiser]

It's Lamb over terry and it's not close. Lamb over Terry at 26yo isn't close. Lamb is solid top 5 and probably only behind Chase and JJ.

It's not remotely close.

 

[burgold]

Looks close to me.

Terry McClaurin

2024 2024

Commanders

82 82

1,096 1,096

13.4 13.4

86 86

13 13

2 2

1.0

Cee Dee Lamb 2024

Cowboys

101 101

1,194 1,194

11.8 11.8

65 65

6 6

70 70

5.0

 

[burgold]

Seriously though, I think most everyone would agree that CeeDee has been the more productive receiver and if we were offered a straight up trade I suspect almost everyone would take it, but this is BGO and not ES... you don't have to be so extreme.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Yeah, he mentioned something to the effect of E above in his conversation with Bram.

Terry and Terry's side is going to have to come around to the fact they are going to have to move more than the team because they are in a lower leverage position. I think the team might be willing to move if Terry's side moves first.

If Terry's side doesn't think age is a "thing" then that's going to be a real problem in the long term because it is. And the team would be foolish to not consider it.

Absolutely age is a factor. My gut is at 31 is there a good chance Terry will be as good as he was at 29? I think there is a decent chance he could be. But at 32? At 33? To quote Terry "he's going to age beautifully." But Terry doesn't know that.

it feels like Terry and his agent want to set a new precedent that the idea of the 30 plus year old WRs is just as good as the 25-28 year olds. And the older WRs might be getting better and better with age just like a 25 year old. etc. Wrs age like a great fine wine. That's cool. But why should the team just trust it because Terry says he is going to be different at 32 because he took a slant to the house at 29?

If Terry's agents negotiation style with Peters is anything similar to what Terry has said publicly -- I admire Peters for his restraint. i personally would have a hard time holding back my sarcasm if Terry's agent's prime argument for why Terry will be different than the typical 30 something WR is him taking a slant to the house at 29.

If Terry's side doesnt back off of wanting more than 30. I'd let him play out his contract. And franchise him next year at 28. And then let him go at 32. 32 is when I'd expect the drop off anyway. And looking at it that way, I think the team has the leverage because they can keep him for the next two years. And if my math is right he'd make less than 27 million a year.

 

[Anselmheifer]

Again, I can't think of anyone aside from some Commanders fans who think Terry => Ceedee.

But like I said, I'll play along for kicks. So if the point is Terry could very well be but his darn QBs even Jayden don't throw to him as often as they should -- so we don't really know if Ceedee is truly better. lol, OK, fine. It's irrelevant to the point. For two reasons. No one thinks (aside maybe from a handful of people) that the age of 26 and 31 is the same at WR.

And also, you can't really argue context to that extent in big contracts. The numbers are what the numbers are. Is someone going to say hey i got 200 at bats and hit 15 homeruns. this other dude hit 30 homeruns but at 400 at bats. So lets consider our stats the same thing because if I got those same at bats the results would be the same. It's still conjecture. As far as I've seen, contracts don't work that way.

Like I said if 26 years old is the same as 31 -- maybe it would be a more interesting discussion.

This.

Saying that if Terry had the same number of targets, he would have had the same production ignores the fact that there is a reason Ceedee had 40-50% more targets. It’s because he is better.

Terry gets targets when the coverage circumstance says he’s going to be open, or when he appears open. Ceedee and Chase and Jefferson get way more targets because regardless of who is on them, or what the coverage is, it’s assumed they are going to win the matchup and be open, or make the catch even if they’re covered.

It’s like if I’m comparing my dating life to George Clooney, and I say, “the same percentage of the women I ask out say yes, so I’m just as much of a catch”. But, he’s asking out models and human rights lawyers that look like models.

 

[skinsinparadise]

It's Lamb over terry and it's not close. Lamb over Terry at 26yo isn't close. Lamb is solid top 5 and probably only behind Chase and JJ.

It's not remotely close.

Yeah, its nauseating for me to talk up a Cowboys player. And if someone wants to argue purely about last season -- the stats were somewhat close. But overall, Ceedee is freakish. He's so hard to stop. Terry is an overachiever who has had some great moments. But I just don't fear Terry the way I do Ceedee as a WR. We talked plenty about Ceedee before that draft -- the dude was insane at Oklahoma, one of the most special college WRs I've ever watched.

I couldn't post the youtube player description of Ceedee, ranked 13th best player in the league by his peers -- but they describe him well -- the dude is freakish and just different. You know the ball is going to him and doesn't matter if you double-triple team him, he's getting the ball anyway.

 

[burgold]

This.

Saying that if Terry had the same number of targets, he would have had the same production ignores the fact that there is a reason Ceedee had 40-50% more targets. It’s because he is better.

Terry gets targets when the coverage circumstance says he’s going to be open, or when he appears open. Ceedee and Chase and Jefferson get way more targets because regardless of who is on them, or what the coverage is, it’s assumed they are going to win the matchup and be open, or make the catch even if they’re covered.

It’s like if I’m comparing my dating life to George Clooney, and I say, “the same percentage of the women I ask out say yes, so I’m just as much of a catch”. But, he’s asking out models and human rights lawyers that look like models.

Are you suggesting George Clooney has less game at 64 than he did at 34 and deserves a lower playa contract?

 

[burgold]

Yeah, its nauseating for me to talk up a Cowboys player. And if someone wants to argue purely about last season -- the stats were somewhat close. But overall, Ceedee is freakish. He's so hard to stop. Terry is an overachiever who has had some great moments. But I just don't fear Terry the way I do Ceedee as a WR. We talked plenty about Ceedee before that draft -- the dude was insane at Oklahoma, one of the most special college WRs I've ever watched.

Oh, I just think some of the Terry dismissals are over the top. The way he's being depicted makes me think some think he's the Reed Doughty of wide receivers.... or maybe James Thrash.

 

[Anselmheifer]

If Terry's side doesnt back off of wanting more than 30. I'd let him play out his contract. And franchise him next year at 28. And then let him go at 32. 32 is when I'd expect the drop off anyway. And looking at it that way, I think the team has the leverage because they can keep him for the next two years. And if my math is right he'd make less than 27 million a year.

I’m not going to go back and find the quote, but someone asked why Terry should sign, when he knows that he can get the same amount through the franchise tag.

The answer is two-fold. One, if Terry plays out this year and then gets franchised, assuming the franchise tag goes from 28 million this year to 30 million next year, then Terry would make 45 million over the next two years. Then he’d sign a 32 year old market rate contract, likely for way less. That’s going to be wayyyyyy less guaranteed money than he could get from just signing a short extension with a lot of guarantees. And also, Terry risks an injury this year, or a decline, making him not worth the value of the franchise tag.