The All Things Terry Thread

[Califan007]

I love Terry, but I think Ceedee Lamb is at least half a peg better WR. And Chase is in his own orbit. And that's before delving into their age differences.

To me Terry is in that St. Brown, D. Smith, Metcalf, T, Higgins, M. Evans range of receivers. Somewhere between 8 and 12.

The more I read and listen about the contract, i think the impasse is simple.

Terry's agent convincing Terry that's he's in that Ceedee Lamb, AJ Brown, class. AND age doesnt matter. So the negotiation is stuck on those two points.

And i blame it on the agent not Terry. As Logan Paulsen said recently (not in the context of this negotiation) its the agent's job to be real with the player and settle them down. Feels like this agent is doing the opposite and stirring Terry's emotions up.

For me—at least in this thread lol—it’s not about who is better…that tends to be subjective anyway with each of us using our individual preferred metrics on which to base our opinions.

For me, it was the argument that Terry has never been good enough to put up the type of numbers Lamb did during his “monster season”. A very strong and very valid argument can be made that, yes, he was indeed good enough just last season.

Terry also trumps Lamb in playoff production: higher yards per reception (15.1 compared to Lamb’s 13.2) and more TDs (3 TDs compared to Lamb’s 1 TD) when they have both played the same number of playoff games…now, you could argue that Lamb’s QB becomes a deer in the headlights in the playoffs while Terry’s QB has ice running through his veins in the playoffs so Lamb has played with inferior QB in the postseason and I wouldn’t argue against that lol…but you could also argue that teams go up against stiffer defenses in the playoffs and that while Lamb starts to falter, Terry continues to shine.

 

[Anselmheifer]

If you took McLaurin and exchanged him with Chase, I don't think McClaurin would have exactly the same productivity, that would be an insult to how good Chase is. But he'd be close.

That’s like saying that if Terry played with Tom Brady, he could have had a season like Randy Moss did in New England.

Terry isn’t close to Chase. Chase is a first ballot HOF player. Terry could be checked extremely effectively by a rookie Quinyon Mitchell. Terry just doesn’t have the physical ability of a guy like Chase. And he’s not nearly on the same level of Ceedee, or Jefferson.

But, he is a really good receiver and is somewhere in that second tier. And he’s a character guy. A locker room guy. A guy that produces in big moments and big games. He was huge against the Lions. Almost won us the first Cowboys game. Did win us the second Cowboys game, on the final play. Etc, etc, etc. I’d have no problem overpaying him if he were 25.

I appreciate our forum members trying to make statistical analyses, but the last one quoted here, about receivers in certain age groups that play more than 8 games in a season etc, does very little to sway me. It doesn’t just, “feel like” older receivers drop off. The only receiver last year that was top 15 in yards and older than 30, wasn’t a receiver. It was George Kittle. And that’s not a huge outlier. RB,CB, and receiver, are young men’s positions. And while Terry isn’t a pure speed guy like Tyreek Hill or Jameson Williams, the deep ball and deep contested ball, in my mind, ARE what makes his game special. Take those pieces away and he is very replaceable, from a production standpoint.

I love Terry. I’d be fine with giving him a fully guaranteed contract that pays him $35 million a season in the next 2 years. I’m fine with an age 30 and age 31 overpay. But, with Jayden, we are a team with at least an 8 year Super Bowl window. We can’t sacrifice our chances of winning a SB 2, 3 and 4 years from now, to increase our chances this year.

I’d honestly rather get a high 2nd for Terry than do that. I’m not saying we could get that. I’m saying what my valuation would be.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

That’s like saying that if Terry played with Tom Brady, he could have had a season like Randy Moss did in New England.

Terry isn’t close to Chase. Chase is a first ballot HOF player. Terry could be checked extremely effectively by a rookie Quinyon Mitchell. Terry just doesn’t have the physical ability of a guy like Chase. And he’s not nearly on the same level of Ceedee, or Jefferson.

But, he is a really good receiver and is somewhere in that second tier. And he’s a character guy. A locker room guy. A guy that produces in big moments and big games. He was huge against the Lions. Almost won us the first Cowboys game. Did win us the second Cowboys game, on the final play. Etc, etc, etc. I’d have no problem overpaying him if he were 25.

I appreciate our forum members trying to make statistical analyses, but the last one quoted here, about receivers in certain age groups that play more than 8 games in a season etc, does very little to sway me. It doesn’t just, “feel like” older receivers drop off. The only receiver last year that was top 15 in yards and older than 30, wasn’t a receiver. It was George Kittle. And that’s not a huge outlier. RB,CB, and receiver, are young men’s positions. And while Terry isn’t a pure speed guy like Tyreek Hill or Jameson Williams, the deep ball and deep contested ball, in my mind, ARE what makes his game special. Take those pieces away and he is very replaceable, from a production standpoint.

I love Terry. I’d be fine with giving him a fully guaranteed contract that pays him $35 million a season in the next 2 years. I’m fine with an age 30 and age 31 overpay. But, with Jayden, we are a team with at least an 8 year Super Bowl window. We can’t sacrifice our chances of winning a SB 2, 3 and 4 years from now, to increase our chances this year.

I’d honestly rather get a high 2nd for Terry than do that. I’m not saying we could get that. I’m saying what my valuation would be.

I disagree only insofar as I think Terry is really good, and if he had the number of targets and opportunities, his numbers would be remarkably better.

But I've also said he is NOT Chase and NOT Lamb. But I think he's in the next tier, right now, after those guys. And if he played in a situation which provided more volume with a competent QB, he'd have better numbers.

I'm not sure that should be controversial.

This current iteration of the offense, we have a much more balanced attack, and Terry isn't going to get the volume even though we have a great, young QB.

If they want to compete for the division and NFC Championship again this season, they need Terry. It's that simple. He's the best WR they have.

But they shouldn't do stupid things for the long term to get him a new contract.

 

[lovemaskins]

Here’s a great post from PIRIo from an article over at Hogs Haven on Terry returning:

“As an agent (different sport) and as someone who’s been around a fair share of NFL players, this is a bunch of posturing from both sides which was probably coordinated.

Here are the takeaways:
1. This “injury” is very common practice. Had many NFL players tell me the goal once you’re established in the league is to take 1 out of every 4 to 5 preseasons pretty much off. Reduces injury risk, fairly unnecessary if you already know the playbook, decreases wear and tear on the body. This usually starts around you’re age-30 season.
2. Terrys agent knows he will be franchised if a new deal isn’t accepted. This means Terry has a 2 year deal in hand at close to the top of the market money. The agent is looking for 2 more years, AP is probably looking at 1. They’ll come to an agreement with year 4 money as a small guarantee. I’d suspect we will see something along the lines of 4 years/ $80M guaranteed with roster bonuses and performance bonuses.
3. The injury isn’t a real thing. Everyone has bad ankles/ knees at this point in their career. Used as an excuse to get him out of practicing but still in the building and doesn’t piss off the league office or NFLPA.
4. I’ll save all the conspiracy theorists some spilled ink. Terry won’t play in the preseason. Zero reason on the teams side and his side to risk anything. The season is too important.
5. Anyone bagging on Terrys camp or AP in this situation needs to take a long walk outside. This is coordinated. The PR side has been discussed internally by both sides. There’s been key language by both Terry and the team. There was never a trade demand. This isn’t the Hendrickson situation in Cincy. Terry has to keep the NFLPA off his back. AP has to keep the NFL owners off his. They know what they’re doing.
6. I’d imagine they are quite close in negotiations. Wouldn’t shock me if there was another week of “talking” as that lets Terry and the team extend his PUP “vacation”. Like other posters have rightly stated, this team has a chance to go all the way if Terry is here. It doesn’t without him.
7. Some have said that AP is setting a precedent for future negotiations. Highly doubtful for a myriad of reasons (different positions, injury histories, etc). GMs in salary cap leagues don’t look at dollar amounts. They look at %s vs the cap. APs big board has their cap situation rolled out for the next 8 years due to JD5 resetting the market (hopefully). WAS is in a great position and far exceeded the hopes last season. AP had to rejigger the cap situation this offseason due to the accelerated timeline and JD5 becoming the 99% of what we hoped, just in year 1.

Hope this helps”

 

[Simeon]

I'm certainly not holding it against him to try and get the best deal he can.

However, I think he and his agent overplayed their hand. I think they thought he could push hard on the team, the fans would flock to his defense, and the team would capitulate to give him whatever he wants.

Sure does look like it.

Curious if anyone can give a take on other similar situations where the agent has pumped up a player’s ego beyond their worth. Do these tend to devolve into s##t shows with holdouts into the season, do the players usually capitulate, do they tend to give the players a little more, or what?

 

[DieselPwr44]

Fans throw around "first ballot hall of famer" too casually. Can we at least wait until their career is almost over before bestowing such lofty titles on guys who haven't won anything?

 

[Discobob]

Here’s a great post from PIRIo from an article over at Hogs Haven on Terry returning:

“As an agent (different sport) and as someone who’s been around a fair share of NFL players, this is a bunch of posturing from both sides which was probably coordinated.

Here are the takeaways:
1. This “injury” is very common practice. Had many NFL players tell me the goal once you’re established in the league is to take 1 out of every 4 to 5 preseasons pretty much off. Reduces injury risk, fairly unnecessary if you already know the playbook, decreases wear and tear on the body. This usually starts around you’re age-30 season.
2. Terrys agent knows he will be franchised if a new deal isn’t accepted. This means Terry has a 2 year deal in hand at close to the top of the market money. The agent is looking for 2 more years, AP is probably looking at 1. They’ll come to an agreement with year 4 money as a small guarantee. I’d suspect we will see something along the lines of 4 years/ $80M guaranteed with roster bonuses and performance bonuses.
3. The injury isn’t a real thing. Everyone has bad ankles/ knees at this point in their career. Used as an excuse to get him out of practicing but still in the building and doesn’t piss off the league office or NFLPA.
4. I’ll save all the conspiracy theorists some spilled ink. Terry won’t play in the preseason. Zero reason on the teams side and his side to risk anything. The season is too important.
5. Anyone bagging on Terrys camp or AP in this situation needs to take a long walk outside. This is coordinated. The PR side has been discussed internally by both sides. There’s been key language by both Terry and the team. There was never a trade demand. This isn’t the Hendrickson situation in Cincy. Terry has to keep the NFLPA off his back. AP has to keep the NFL owners off his. They know what they’re doing.
6. I’d imagine they are quite close in negotiations. Wouldn’t shock me if there was another week of “talking” as that lets Terry and the team extend his PUP “vacation”. Like other posters have rightly stated, this team has a chance to go all the way if Terry is here. It doesn’t without him.
7. Some have said that AP is setting a precedent for future negotiations. Highly doubtful for a myriad of reasons (different positions, injury histories, etc). GMs in salary cap leagues don’t look at dollar amounts. They look at %s vs the cap. APs big board has their cap situation rolled out for the next 8 years due to JD5 resetting the market (hopefully). WAS is in a great position and far exceeded the hopes last season. AP had to rejigger the cap situation this offseason due to the accelerated timeline and JD5 becoming the 99% of what we hoped, just in year 1.

Hope this helps”

I'm not saying your wrong, but this reads like a " I know the real inside scoop, they are playing 4D chess and most folks don't get it" type of post.

Without any real insider data, the simpler explanation is that they just aren't in agreement over his value, but that it will eventually work it self out.

 

[lovemaskins]

I'm not saying your wrong, but this reads like a " I know the real inside scoop, they are playing 4D chess and most folks don't get it" type of post.

Without any real insider data, the simpler explanation is that they just aren't in agreement over his value, but that it will eventually work it self out.

Well as a general statement I’d agree that there is disagreement on value… but the poster I quoted seems to have insider knowledge of how negotiations typically work between team and player/agent, and Terry’s seems to be playing out according to his post.

I tend to agree more with his logic than some of the nonsensical speculation I’ve read on this board…

Yes I do think teams and agents are playing 4D chess in comparison to what fans think and no we don’t “get it.” These leagues have insider protocols and culture we’re not privy to, that’s obvious.

 

[Califan007]

Without any real insider data, the simpler explanation is that they just aren't in agreement over his value, but that it will eventually work it self out.

That’s pretty much what was being said in that post. The only thing the agent from another sport was adding on was:

- the ankle “injury” was probably pre-planned on both sides
- GMs and agents are aligned far more than fans realize and posturing is taking place
- 30 year old athletes often take training camps “off” and coaches and GMs understand and are often cool with it
-Stop picking sides and get out more lol

 

[Bulldog]

The truth is Terry is a very good player.

You can win with him, but his status with a year left in his deal does not put us in the position it would if we were talking about resigning Justin Jefferson.

He’s not a top 10 draft pick and 25 years old where it would be an organizational setback of large proportion to lose him for the future.

Even while working with dregs at quarterback last year in New York I saw some special skills on display by rookie Malik Nabors. He has the type of innate playmaking capability that is rare to see.

The argument you have to have a pro bowler throwing you the ball to show your worth is not correct.

You can go beyond the stat accumulators to see who NFL defensive coaches are afraid of and game plan around.

Terry is not that player but he’s in that next level down - a capable starter that can make plays if the DB takes the wrong angle or jumps too early, etc on a contested ball.

But not a franchise cornerstone.

 

[RedWolf]

This will all be over soon. Terry was at camp today and so was his agent, as well as AP. I'm sure they are hammering out the finer details and he will get an extension probably within the next week or so, if not sooner

 

[Bulldog]

Peters history is not to sign guys early.

It’s hurt and helped him at times in Denver and SF.

Terry has some leverage but not as much as the talking heads in media think.

At 30 he can’t afford to sit out the season and no one is going to offer Washington a king’s ransom in a trade if his agent is even allowed to seek one.

 

[bifflog]

That’s pretty much what was being said in that post. The only thing the agent from another sport was adding on was:

- the ankle “injury” was probably pre-planned on both sides
- GMs and agents are aligned far more than fans realize and posturing is taking place
- 30 year old athletes often take training camps “off” and coaches and GMs understand and are often cool with it
-Stop picking sides and get out more lol

 

[skinsinparadise]

Interesting comments from the agent -- most of it is standard and intuitive but its cool to see it all in one place in one post. And appreciate all the effort with the post to regurgitate it. So none of this is to knock that post. It is a great post.

Now to dive in. The idea that there is posturing on both sides. Agree. That's 99% of these contract negotiations. The idea that both the player and the FO has to show fortitude to the benefit of the players association and in Peters case to the rest of the league, of course.

As for them being "close" in the negotiations. The beat guys and even Schefter do not seem to think so. But it of course can change fast. Sounds like the agent is just flying something against the wall on that one -- they could be right, could be wrong. But certaintly there is no smoking gun right now indicating the deal is super close. But you'd think from a practical standpoint both sides would be motivated to get a deal done sooner than later.

As for agents and FO in some ways aligned, I can see that. But this example doesn't strike me as some sort of dance where the two sides are in cahoots in some way. This agent isn't used to playing with contracts this size. And maybe its coincidence but maybe not that the surprise loss in FA this year was Jeremy Chinn -- even Keim was surprised they didn't bring him back. Chinn represented by Terry's agent. So its possible that both sides here don't love each other for real.

The franchise tag for 2026 is expected to be 28 million. And according to two different reporters, Terry's agent is asking for north of 30. But do agree that the length is likely a good part of the angst about the deal. Terry at 34 for example isn't getting a big deal from anyone so the longer you extend it the better in his case.

Agree that AP is unlikely about setting a precedent for other team contracts. It's more likely specific to this contract. Is Peters willing to relent to Terry and his agent and give him a 30 plus million dollar contract at 31 plus years old.

He will be 31 at the start of a new one. If he does so, it will set somewhat of a new precedent for the league. I guess you can say Tyreek Hill, also an exception, at 30 million, but that happened after a monster season, bigger than any Terry ever had, and if I recall you can get out of that one in 2 seasons. And at 31, Hill, had a big drop off from the previous season -- which again makes the point that dudes as they head into their 30s aren't the same typically.

The Dolphins I gather didn't regret the Hill contract at that time. But they I gather expected Hill to continue to be elite and alas he wasn't and now I'd bet they regret that contract. Terry says its different for him just because of the slant against the Lions. I love Terry but I cringe on that point. He's betting that he will be different than the typical WR. But that's a tale we can't predict. He can't predict it either. But if the past is prologue looking at other WRs, he's likely to have a fall off at some point and sooner than later.

As far as no side deserves any flak -- to me it depends on what that means. I don't dislike Terry from any of this. He's still IMO a classy guy. But I do think this goes beyond (not by a lot but at least an extent) some of the standard contract disputes.

We can say he's not Hendrickson level as to how this is going That's true. But he's a peg below that. IMHO its still a more high maintenance than usual contract standoff. While Terry hasn't demanded a trade. He's not a mile away from it -- discussing how the team doesn't seem to value him -- and if they don't they should man up and just tell him, and while he's not demanding a trade YET "the clock is ticking." And then leaking a day or so ago I gather via his agent that everything is on the table including a trade.

You got some drama coming from Terry's camp. You got the holding out, now two contract negotiations in a row. His comments have some drama including referring to himself in third person -- defending to death how age won't effect him, mocking the Peters side of the negotiations by saying they have him in a rocking chair. Terry saying he will "age beautifully." Among other things. A lot of open shots from Terry. Not every player does the same. Yeah not as bad as Hendrickson but not every player holds out and takes shots at the team during negotiations. Some do. Not everyone.

The Bengals have taken shots back at Hendrickson. Peters and Quinn have been perfect gentleman through all of it -- the drama totally from Terry's side.

Do I fault Terry for it. Nope. But I do fault his agent. Logan Paulsen recently in his usual diplomatic fashion talked about agents and contracts and how the agents are supposed to keep you grounded and to keep the emotions in check. I don't get that vibe on this one. But I'll grant that clearly there are many things we don't know. So am open to whatever narrative comes out of this when its over. But for now, this is my best reading tea leaves take as for what's out there now.

 

[skinsinparadise]

For me—at least in this thread lol—it’s not about who is better…that tends to be subjective anyway with each of us using our individual preferred metrics on which to base our opinions.

For me, it was the argument that Terry has never been good enough to put up the type of numbers Lamb did during his “monster season”. A very strong and very valid argument can be made that, yes, he was indeed good enough just last season.

Terry also trumps Lamb in playoff production: higher yards per reception (15.1 compared to Lamb’s 13.2) and more TDs (3 TDs compared to Lamb’s 1 TD) when they have both played the same number of playoff games…now, you could argue that Lamb’s QB becomes a deer in the headlights in the playoffs while Terry’s QB has ice running through his veins in the playoffs so Lamb has played with inferior QB in the postseason and I wouldn’t argue against that lol…but you could also argue that teams go up against stiffer defenses in the playoffs and that while Lamb starts to falter, Terry continues to shine.

It's subjective. But outside of some of our fans, I think we'd be hard pressed to find anyone who would put Terry over or as the same as Ceedee who was ranked by the players as the 13th best player in the league last year, that's quite the complement. Coaches-GMs ranked him higher than Terry, etc.

But OK for arguments sake, lets say they are the same player. And lol I know you are the wrong person to argue this since you don't from what i recall think that age is a factor but almost everyone else does. You got Ceedee playing at 26 this year. You got Terry under contract at 30 years old. But wants a new contract for 31. That's a dichotomy even if they were the same player. And I'll go out on a limb and say its obvious enough that Ceedee is the better player that its not much of a debate within league circles. But to Terry's credit he's not a mile behind him.

At a minimum I doubt Terry's best football is coming down the road at lets say at 32. Guys Ceedee's age rarely decline.

 

[Hail Raiser]

Jay Freaking Gruden was the best OC Terry had

I'd like to engrave this on something around here

 

[skinsinparadise]

I'd like to engrave this on something around here

Jay as Voice_of_Reason likes to say is a sneaky Hall of Fame candidate.

 

[Califan007]

I don't think for examples coaches and GMs ranking Terry behind these WRs is because its lost on them that some of these WRs ahead of them are targeted more -- I think the idea they are targeted more because they are open more.

In 2023 when Lamb was targeted 181 times, he had an average separation of 2.7 yards from the nearest defender at the time of completion/incompletion.

In 2024 when Terry was only targeted 117 times, he had an average separation of 2.7 yards from the nearest defender at the time of completion/incompletion.

Last year, the WRs who were most targeted were not the ones who were most open. Drake London had 35 more targets than Terry yet had less average separation per target.

There’s got to be more to the number of targets a WR gets than “he’s just open more”. Offensive scheme, score (playing from ahead or from behind), playcalling, etc, etc…

 

[skinsinparadise]

Keim's podcast today.

A. He talked to multiple sources on it. They two sides are very firm on their positions. They aren't close to a deal. No serious progress yet on a deal.

B. The team considers that he's starting the new contract at 31 as a relevant point. Age is a factor to the team.

C. Terry is doing a hold in.

D. Terry firm on his value is equal to certain WRs who are getting paid (Keim doesn't elaborate but others have so I gather this means the AJ Brown, Ceedee Lamb types)

E. Keim wouldn't be surprised if this went on for weeks unless both sides give in some.

 

[skinsinparadise]

In 2023 when Lamb was targeted 181 times, he had an average separation of 2.7 yards from the nearest defender at the time of completion/incompletion.

In 2024 when Terry was only targeted 117 times, he had an average separation of 2.7 yards from the nearest defender at the time of completion/incompletion.

Last year, the WRs who were most targeted were not the ones who were most open. Drake London had 35 more targets than Terry yet had less average separation per target.

There’s got to be more to the number of targets a WR gets than “he’s just open more”. Offensive scheme, score (playing from ahead or from behind), playcalling, etc, etc…

Again, I can't think of anyone aside from some Commanders fans who think Terry => Ceedee.

But like I said, I'll play along for kicks. So if the point is Terry could very well be but his darn QBs even Jayden don't throw to him as often as they should -- so we don't really know if Ceedee is truly better. lol, OK, fine. It's irrelevant to the point. For two reasons. No one thinks (aside maybe from a handful of people) that the age of 26 and 31 is the same at WR.

And also, you can't really argue context to that extent in big contracts. The numbers are what the numbers are. Is someone going to say hey i got 200 at bats and hit 15 homeruns. this other dude hit 30 homeruns but at 400 at bats. So lets consider our stats the same thing because if I got those same at bats the results would be the same. It's still conjecture. As far as I've seen, contracts don't work that way.

Like I said if 26 years old is the same as 31 -- maybe it would be a more interesting discussion.