The 2026 Draft Thread - Day 2

[SkinsFTW]

Since I paid so little attention to college football and who is going to be drafted where, my vote is for them drafting 2nd and 3rd round guys who will be starting instead of bench warmers like Sinott and not ready dudes like McCaffrey.

In other words, pick the right dude or find a better selector.

 

[method man]

Since I paid so little attention to college football and who is going to be drafted where, my vote is for them drafting 2nd and 3rd round guys who will be starting instead of bench warmers like Sinott and not ready dudes like McCaffrey.

In other words, pick the right dude or find a better selector.

I looked at recent top thirds of the 3rd round in recent years and the hit rate is surprisingly low. Brandon Coleman may actually be one of the better players taken there.

If we look more broadly, it is guys at non premium positions (S, CB2, G, C, etc) who hit at a higher rate.

Here are some 3rd round hits in recent years

2025 - early but guys w a fast start are Sanker (S), Watts (S), Wilson (G), Fairchild (G), J. Caldwell (NT), N.Williams (CB) and Fannin (TE)

2024 - B. Coleman (T), J. Hunt (EDGE), D. Phillips (slot), Beebe (G/C), Bullock (S), Goncalves (T/G), Puni (G), T. Smith (S), P. wilson (ILB), Kinchens (S). Corum and Benson are solid backs but they aren’t starters.

If we want to try to find a Day 1 starter in the 3rd, S and G are probably the areas to focus

 

[KDawg]

I looked at recent top thirds of the 3rd round in recent years and the hit rate is surprisingly low. Brandon Coleman may actually be one of the better players taken there.

If we look more broadly, it is guys at non premium positions (S, CB2, G, C, etc) who hit at a higher rate.

Here are some 3rd round hits in recent years

2025 - early but guys w a fast start are Sanker (S), Watts (S), Wilson (G), Fairchild (G), J. Caldwell (NT), N.Williams (CB) and Fannin (TE)

2024 - B. Coleman (T), J. Hunt (EDGE), D. Phillips (slot), Beebe (G/C), Bullock (S), Goncalves (T/G), Puni (G), T. Smith (S), P. wilson (ILB), Kinchens (S). Corum and Benson are solid backs but they aren’t starters.

If we want to try to find a Day 1 starter in the 3rd, S and G are probably the areas to focus

The fact that Kinchens and Beebe were third rounders still puzzles me. I had Beebe as the top IOL in that class, I think. And top 3 overall. Pretty sure I had Kinchens up there as well.

Wilson was a fan favorite in the ES draft thread as well.

 

[Primus Porcus]

I looked at recent top thirds of the 3rd round in recent years and the hit rate is surprisingly low. Brandon Coleman may actually be one of the better players taken there.

If we look more broadly, it is guys at non premium positions (S, CB2, G, C, etc) who hit at a higher rate.

Here are some 3rd round hits in recent years

2025 - early but guys w a fast start are Sanker (S), Watts (S), Wilson (G), Fairchild (G), J. Caldwell (NT), N.Williams (CB) and Fannin (TE)

2024 - B. Coleman (T), J. Hunt (EDGE), D. Phillips (slot), Beebe (G/C), Bullock (S), Goncalves (T/G), Puni (G), T. Smith (S), P. wilson (ILB), Kinchens (S). Corum and Benson are solid backs but they aren’t starters.

If we want to try to find a Day 1 starter in the 3rd, S and G are probably the areas to focus

I think this comes down to what philosophy GMs have in this bracket. I think this is where GMs are looking to 'steal' players that maybe show out in certain aspects, but have that 'knock' against them that causes them to fall. A guy who has shorter arms than he 'should'. Or a LB that's got all the tape in the world, but lacks that combine measurables. Maybe that guy that doesn't have the best tape, but looks like he should be dominating. Project starters who if they hit, like Nico Collins, or Terry Mclaurin, hit BIG, and taking that 'chance' there is deemed a better bet than taking the more 'stable' choice, instead waiting til day 3 to go for that guy who projects more as depth than potential starter.

 

[method man]

I think this comes down to what philosophy GMs have in this bracket. I think this is where GMs are looking to 'steal' players that maybe show out in certain aspects, but have that 'knock' against them that causes them to fall. A guy who has shorter arms than he 'should'. Or a LB that's got all the tape in the world, but lacks that combine measurables. Maybe that guy that doesn't have the best tape, but looks like he should be dominating. Project starters who if they hit, like Nico Collins, or Terry Mclaurin, hit BIG, and taking that 'chance' there is deemed a better bet than taking the more 'stable' choice, instead waiting til day 3 to go for that guy who projects more as depth than potential starter.

I don't know if AP thinks this way but, with his Day 2 misses in 2024 and the lack of picks this year, he needs to hit with #71 if we keep it.

If you are a team with a good to great roster and a lot of picks, I would say there is more leeway to try to 'steal' players to your point and take greater risks

 

[method man]

The fact that Kinchens and Beebe were third rounders still puzzles me. I had Beebe as the top IOL in that class, I think. And top 3 overall. Pretty sure I had Kinchens up there as well.

Wilson was a fan favorite in the ES draft thread as well.

I remember you being very high on Beebe. He's been a solid center. I wonder if he unlocks another level if he moves back out to guard

 

[Primus Porcus]

I don't know if AP thinks this way but, with his Day 2 misses in 2024 and the lack of picks this year, he needs to hit with #71 if we keep it.

If you are a team with a good to great roster and a lot of picks, I would say there is more leeway to try to 'steal' players to your point and take greater risks

I'm just talking about philosophically across the league, and that could be a part of the 'reason' we see such a drop in hit rate.


I know a lot of people classify Sinnott as a miss, but i'm not shutting the door just yet... and even more-so if my theory rings true and he took Sinnott with that same focus, knowing he had a couple years left with Ertz to get Sinnott going. That Sinnott had something working against him that Peters believed time could work out. The next TE off the board was Tip Reiman who's actually done less in the NFL than Sinnott.

 

[method man]

Another way to look at the data is to take a look at all the safeties taken in the 3rd round in recent years.

- 2025: Winston Jr, Sanker and Watts. Sanker and Watts hit big but it is looking like Winston may be a hit too. Was coming off an ACL tear, played 300 snaps and had a solid PFF grade
- 2024: Bullock (Pro Bowler), Tykee Smith, Kamren Kinchens. All good starters. All hits
- 2023: Sydney Brown, J'Ayir Brown, Jordan Battle. Brown is a bit of a disappointment as a backup safety but he hasn't been a bad player. Brown and Battle are solid starters for their teams

So you are 7 for 9 when it comes to finding starters and may end up 9 for 9 if Brown takes Blankenship's starting role next year and Winston emerges as a starter.

As we take a look at this draft, Jordan Reid mentioned the depth of the S class and thinks guys like Haulcy, Wheatley and Clark will be available in the 3rd. I think Haulcy is the guy I'd keep my eye on most closely if he is there given we nearly hired his position coach.

I think one of the biggest things we missed about Chinn last year is he was such an enforcer in 2024 and delivered some of the biggest hits I saw from the safety position since Sean Taylor and Brandon Merriweather.

 

[burgold]

It seems to me that the problem with the Sinnott pick was one of miscommunication. When Peters drafted Sinnott he thought he could be a Juszczyk-like player. That's what he said on draft night. The problem is that Kliff wanted nothing to do with a FB or H-back so Sinnott was drafted for a purpose that the OC didn't want. From the start they called him a TE, but I think Peters envisioned him as a Swiss Army knife. Really, Peters wanted the same out of Deebo and our use of Deebo (possibly due to injuries was really straight forward, too.) So, Peters seems to like these multiple players and Kliff didn't use them that way.

 

[method man]

It seems to me that the problem with the Sinnott pick was one of miscommunication. When Peters drafted Sinnott he thought he could be a Juszczyk-like player. That's what he said on draft night. The problem is that Kliff wanted nothing to do with a FB or H-back so Sinnott was drafted for a purpose that the OC didn't want. From the start they called him a TE, but I think Peters envisioned him as a Swiss Army knife. Really, Peters wanted the same out of Deebo and our use of Deebo (possibly due to injuries was really straight forward, too.) So, Peters seems to like these multiple players and Kliff didn't use them that way.

A Kyle Juszcczyk type player is not worth a 2nd round pick. There really is no way to justify the pick.

Primus Porcus If we are having to go get a starting TE in FA, Sinnott is a failed pick, plain and simple

 

[Primus Porcus]

A Kyle Juszcczyk type player is not worth a 2nd round pick. There really is no way to justify the pick.

Primus Porcus If we are having to go get a starting TE in FA, Sinnott is a failed pick, plain and simple

It may be, i'm just not willing to close the book completely yet... and even if Sinnott is a miss, Coleman and Sainristil weren't, so there may be a lot of pressure from the fanbase on Peters to force a 'hit' in the 3rd round, but i dont think there's the same level of pressure within the building... at least not if they're looking at the hit rate vs miss rate of most NFL drafts.

 

[Conn]

I don’t see why the pressure wouldn’t be on, at least to SOME reasonable degree. AP will likely have time to grow into his promotion as long as we don’t have a horrible, preventable season with a disaster draft.

But at some point AP needs to draft some pro bowlers beyond Jayden. All Pro’s, even, if we want to actually be good. Like, it’s fine to say it takes a while to judge draft classes, we’ve drafted some above average players, the expectations for mid-late rounders is too high, etc…but at some point AP needs to nail some draft picks or we will never be good and he’ll never prove he’s good at his job. Hopefully that starts this year (and hopefully some of his preexisting picks start looking like bigger hits).

But where do you draw that line? This will be his third draft. I would be surprised if he didn’t get a 4th (as well as a potential 2nd HC hire if this year sucks), but how many average at best drafts can he survive? Another one? Two? He NEEDS to draft a few studs soonish to justify his own position. Not just starters, not just good players (though he needs to draft more of those as well). Studs.

So, sure maybe the fan expectations for AP’s three 2nd round picks in year one have been too high and he’s actually matching league-wide hit rate. But that average hit rate combines good AND bad teams. We want to be not just good, but elite. So. When can we expect AP to draft a stud or three outside of the first round, so we can build a great roster? It has to start soon or his clock starts ticking.

I’m willing to give him time but it has to be acknowledged that there IS a limit to how much he’s allowed to flail around during Jayden Daniels’ rookie contract while he tries to figure it out. We can’t be trying to re-sign Jayden and still be having this conversation. If you agree with that, then we’re just negotiating where to draw that line, for some it’s earlier than others. But it has to exist if we want there to be accountability in this organization.

There absolutely has to be some pressure inside our building for AP. His HC just fired both coordinators after two seasons, his QB has been hurt, his last FA period was a disaster, and he has yet to draft a great player (again outside his #2 overall QB pick who is being held back by the roster he built).

So, yeah. There’s gotta be some pressure. Not just because of the Sinnott pick, but that’s a symptom of a larger issue so far. Especially when you consider that Sain has regressed and Newton seems barely above a JAG most of the time. That whole 2nd round of rich draft resources is operating as a cautionary tale and a microcosm of the larger issues facing this roster right now. AP has to do better.

 

[method man]

Did another analysis on rd 3 picks at WR. It’s ugly. 3 clear starters (maybe 6 in 2026) out of 21 drafted receivers. That’s a 15% to 30% hit rate, which is horrible. No clear impact receivers out of this bunch although Michael Wilson is starting to look like one in year 3


2022 - Velus Jones, Jalen Tolbert, David Bell, Danny Gray. Jones is a return man but no starters here (Bell retired, Gray on the Eagles)

2023 - Tank Dell, Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman, Josh Downs, Michael Wilson, Tre Tucker. 3 starters, 4 (if you count Dell whose career is in jeopardy). Wilson looking like the only one of a bunch who might be a difference maker

2024 - Malachi Corley, Jermaine Burton, Roman Wilson, Jalen McMillan, LMC. Terrible, maybe a starter in McMillan in 2026

2025 - Kyle Williams, Isaac Teslaa, Pat Bryant, Jaylin Noel, Savion Williams, Tai Felton. Teslaa made some cool catches but no one made an impact as a receiver, Noel and Williams did as returners


….

2019-2021 produced 3 Pro Bowlers in Terry, Nico Collins and Diontae Johnson. 2019 is the outlier draft where Hollywood Brown and N’Keal Harry were the only first round receivers but Deebo, AJ Brown, DK, Terry and Diontae Johnson all went Day 2. Could that happen again in this class? Maybe but I would bet against it

 

[SkinsFTW]

True, some of our picks haven't exactly worked out, but he hasn't had a Forbes or Davis WTF pick yet. Give the dude some time and hopefully we have better coordinator's now.

 

[DWinzit]

Did another analysis on rd 3 picks at WR. It’s ugly. 3 clear starters (maybe 6 in 2026) out of 21 drafted receivers. That’s a 15% to 30% hit rate, which is horrible. No clear impact receivers out of this bunch although Michael Wilson is starting to look like one in year 3


2022 - Velus Jones, Jalen Tolbert, David Bell, Danny Gray. Jones is a return man but no starters here (Bell retired, Gray on the Eagles)

2023 - Tank Dell, Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman, Josh Downs, Michael Wilson, Tre Tucker. 3 starters, 4 (if you count Dell whose career is in jeopardy). Wilson looking like the only one of a bunch who might be a difference maker

2024 - Malachi Corley, Jermaine Burton, Roman Wilson, Jalen McMillan, LMC. Terrible, maybe a starter in McMillan in 2026

2025 - Kyle Williams, Isaac Teslaa, Pat Bryant, Jaylin Noel, Savion Williams, Tai Felton. Teslaa made some cool catches but no one made an impact as a receiver, Noel and Williams did as returners


….

2019-2021 produced 3 Pro Bowlers in Terry, Nico Collins and Diontae Johnson. 2019 is the outlier draft where Hollywood Brown and N’Keal Harry were the only first round receivers but Deebo, AJ Brown, DK, Terry and Diontae Johnson all went Day 2. Could that happen again in this class? Maybe but I would bet against it

Wow, this is worse than I thought it would.

I had much higher expectations for quite a few of those players. I'd give the first year guys a break but damn that's surprising.

 

[Commander Wraith]

Which receivers fit the deep threat we’re looking for and might fall into range of our 3rd rd pick?

 

[philibusters]

Chris Brazzell, Brennan Thompson (I posted about him in the other thread last week), Ted Hurst, and Byrce Lance are names that come to mind. Also any of the X receivers even if the are not that fast (guys like Malachi Fields)

 

[method man]

Wow, this is worse than I thought it would.

I had much higher expectations for quite a few of those players. I'd give the first year guys a break but damn that's surprising.

Yeah, there arguably hasn’t been a better 3rd rd receiver than Terry. Remember that Nico Collins didn’t emerge until year 3

 

[DWinzit]

Chris Brazzell, Brennan Thompson (I posted about him in the other thread last week), Ted Hurst, and Byrce Lance are names that come to mind. Also any of the X receivers even if the are not that fast (guys like Malachi Fields)

I can Brazell going in the late 1st early 2nd. I'd seriously look at Fields at 71. You can't expect for these guys to be immediate WR2 however. You hope they can produce early and work their was into a prominent role

 

[method man]

I can Brazell going in the late 1st early 2nd. I'd seriously look at Fields at 71. You can't expect for these guys to be immediate WR2 however. You hope they can produce early and work their was into a prominent role

I want to do my analysis for other positions but, based on the data I’ve given you, someone like Fields is likely to end up a WR3/WR4, if they even make it at all in the first place.

If we take a safety, there’s a 77%+ chance based on the last 3 drafts, we are getting a starter.

Based on this data, in a vacuum, there’s a much greater chance someone like Bud Clark makes it as a starting post safety than someone like Fields makes it as a WR2