The 2026 Draft Thread - Day 2

[skinsinparadise]

based on YPC. Speed-deep threats don't always correlate, but it mostly does. More interesting when it can be combined with combine speed.

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

Ted Hurst's drop rate was 9%? Wow...I knew Aaron Anderson's drop rate would be bad, he struggled to catch in 1v1's at the Senior Bowl. But I thought Hurst wouldn't be near that.

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

philibusters you did a lengthy write-up of Skyler Bell right? What do you think of him at pick #71. Slot guy with ability to separate on in and out breaking routes vs all coverages. He's supposed to be at the combine, and I suspect he should test well.

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

Did another analysis on rd 3 picks at WR. It’s ugly. 3 clear starters (maybe 6 in 2026) out of 21 drafted receivers. That’s a 15% to 30% hit rate, which is horrible. No clear impact receivers out of this bunch although Michael Wilson is starting to look like one in year 3


2022 - Velus Jones, Jalen Tolbert, David Bell, Danny Gray. Jones is a return man but no starters here (Bell retired, Gray on the Eagles)

2023 - Tank Dell, Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman, Josh Downs, Michael Wilson, Tre Tucker. 3 starters, 4 (if you count Dell whose career is in jeopardy). Wilson looking like the only one of a bunch who might be a difference maker

2024 - Malachi Corley, Jermaine Burton, Roman Wilson, Jalen McMillan, LMC. Terrible, maybe a starter in McMillan in 2026

2025 - Kyle Williams, Isaac Teslaa, Pat Bryant, Jaylin Noel, Savion Williams, Tai Felton. Teslaa made some cool catches but no one made an impact as a receiver, Noel and Williams did as returners


….

2019-2021 produced 3 Pro Bowlers in Terry, Nico Collins and Diontae Johnson. 2019 is the outlier draft where Hollywood Brown and N’Keal Harry were the only first round receivers but Deebo, AJ Brown, DK, Terry and Diontae Johnson all went Day 2. Could that happen again in this class? Maybe but I would bet against it

If I recall, the hit rates for WR in every round are far worse than we realize. They bust at a high rate. It falls even more off a cliff in rounds 4-7 unless the guy fell due to major character concerns.

 

[philibusters]

philibusters you did a lengthy write-up of Skyler Bell right? What do you think of him at pick #71. Slot guy with ability to separate on in and out breaking routes vs all coverages. He's supposed to be at the combine, and I suspect he should test well.

He would a decent option at 71. Matchup I watched was against Duke and Chandler Rivers followed him. He played half his snaps in the slot and half at z. He is a good route runner, had a nice release as he faced a lot of press coverage, and is fast (4.4ish). His routes were good, but limited. He is small and struggles with physicality. He feels like a slightly more polished version of Jaylin Lane so in some ways he feels a bit redundant, but I do think he comes into the league more advanced than Lane. 71 would be appropriate value for him. The reality is there will be solid propsects at 71, but no surethings at that point in the draft.

 

[philibusters]

I want to do my analysis for other positions but, based on the data I’ve given you, someone like Fields is likely to end up a WR3/WR4, if they even make it at all in the first place.

If we take a safety, there’s a 77%+ chance based on the last 3 drafts, we are getting a starter.

Based on this data, in a vacuum, there’s a much greater chance someone like Bud Clark makes it as a starting post safety than someone like Fields makes it as a WR2

Part of that is you could be drafting receiver 14 in round three vs. safety 4 given that receiver is a more valuable position and teams draft receivers early and often. Like if you compared receiver 14 to safety 14 you may get similar results but because you are getting safety 4 vs. receiver 14 in the third round that safeties hit at a much higher rate.

 

[method man]

Part of that is you could be drafting receiver 14 in round three vs. safety 4 given that receiver is a more valuable position and teams draft receivers early and often. Like if you compared receiver 14 to safety 14 you may get similar results but because you are getting safety 4 vs. receiver 14 in the third round that safeties hit at a much higher rate.

Yeah I think this is why. Makes a lot of sense

 

[KDawg]

Yeah I think this is why. Makes a lot of sense

It’s absolutely why. The largest position groups on teams are receivers and corners. Camp rosters bring so many of those guys.

Team draft these positions early too. So now you wind up with 4-6 taken in the first round, another group in the second, etc. meanwhile, the first center may not come off the board until the second round.

Some teams hit because they scout well and they have a good player high on their board in the later rounds. We did this with Terry. I bet he was much higher on their board than where he was drafted.

 

[Riggo44]

PFF released prospects to watch at the combine, not guys going #7, but more day 2-3 types, also names of need here.

RB Kaelon Black, Indiana

Black began his collegiate career at James Madison under head coach Curt Cignetti and followed Cignetti to Indiana, where he was part of a national championship run this past season. At 5-foot-10 and roughly 210 pounds, Black could be one of the more explosive running backs at the combine.

According to Bruce Feldman’s annual College Football Freaks List, Black has recorded a 40-inch vertical jump. Teammate Mikail Kamara has also praised his weight-room strength, noting how easily he moves weight. Black backed up the traits with production, earning an 85.5 PFF rushing grade in 2025 along with an 86.0 athleticism score.

RB Jaydn Ott, Oklahoma
Ott saw limited action this past season at Oklahoma after suffering an injury just before the year began, and he never fully worked his way back into the rotation. However, his tape at Cal tells a different story.

When healthy, Ott showed high-end athleticism and strong production. In 2023, he rushed for more than 1,300 yards, earning an 89.5 PFF rushing grade and a 91.5 in-game athleticism score. He also reached a max speed of 23.0-plus m.p.h. in 2024 while at Cal.

If Ott tests well at the combine, do not be surprised to see his name surge up mock drafts.

TE Marlin Klein, Michigan
Klein grew up in Cologne, Germany, initially playing soccer and basketball before transitioning to football. He played the sport in Germany as a freshman and sophomore before transferring to Rabun Gap-Nacoochee School in Georgia and eventually committing to Michigan.

Listed at 6-foot-6 and 245 pounds, Klein brings rare size and movement skills to the position. According to Bruce Feldman, he ran a faster three-cone than Michigan teammate Colston Loveland. Feldman also reported a broad jump near 10 feet and an elite 4.25 short shuttle — a mark that would fall in the 78th percentile and matches the time posted by Sam LaPorta.

C Logan Jones, Iowa
Jones has logged more than 2,800 snaps in his college career and has started at center for Iowa for the past four seasons. A multi-sport athlete in high school, he played on both the offensive and defensive lines, won state titles in the shot put and discus and started at center on the varsity basketball team.

Jones recorded in-game athleticism scores of 87.4 and 88.2 over the past two seasons and was clocked at more than 19 m.p.h. in 2024 — all while weighing 300 pounds. He has the profile to draw attention in Indianapolis.

WR Chris Hilton Jr., LSU
Hilton is firmly in the conversation for the fastest player in this draft class. A three-time state champion in the high jump and a state champion in the 400 meters, he brings verified track speed to the field.

As a consistent vertical threat, Hilton posted a 16.9-yard average depth of target this past season. According to Bruce Feldman, he has been timed in the 4.2s in the 40-yard dash. He has also recorded in-game athleticism scores above 93.0 in each of the past three seasons and has been clocked at more than 20.0 m.p.h. 34 times in his career.

 

[DWinzit]

^ I am a Logan Jones fan and have posted on him a couple times. He'd be a great 4th rounder for us if we had a 4th rounder.

 

[skinsinparadise]

 

[skinsinparadise]

Jack Golday, an even more athletic Leo Chenal? Loaded LB class. 101 sacks, 3.5 sacks and they used him quite a bit in the slot.

 

[skinsinparadise]

They met with Jacob Rodriguez. 13 career forced fumbles, 5 sacks in 2024. Apparently he's a great interview.

 

[philibusters]

Golday is a heck of an athlete. I haven't watched but I don't get the sense he was as physical as Leo Chanel. Cory Kinnan said in his 7 seasons of analyzing drafts, Chanel and Arvell Reese are the two most physical offball LB's he has analyzed in his film review of Reese's game against Illinois. So I am not sure he will fully bring that element of Chanel's game to the team that drafts him.

 

[philibusters]

I think Jacob Rodriguez has good instincts in both run and coverage defense. He is probably just an average athlete and he is not physical. He is not going to take on a blocker in the hole, he is going to make the tackle 4 yards past the line of scrimmage. But in terms of covering his own gap then scraping over and just general instincts, I think he is elite. But his lack of physicality and average athleticism probably do make the 3rd round or 4th round the appropriate value area for him.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Golday is a heck of an athlete. I haven't watched but I don't get the sense he was as physical as Leo Chanel. Cory Kinnan said in his 7 seasons of analyzing drafts, Chanel and Arvell Reese are the two most physical offball LB's he has analyzed in his film review of Reese's game against Illinois. So I am not sure he will fully bring that element of Chanel's game to the team that drafts him.

Yeah Chenal is the LB I am pushing for in the Fa thread, and dug him before the draft. Golday though can do it all, maybe not twitchy but is fast and versatile -- can cover including in the slot, stop the run, pass rush, comes off also as a smart dude.

 

[DWinzit]

I think Jacob Rodriguez has good instincts in both run and coverage defense. He is probably just an average athlete and he is not physical. He is not going to take on a blocker in the hole, he is going to make the tackle 4 yards past the line of scrimmage. But in terms of covering his own gap then scraping over and just general instincts, I think he is elite. But his lack of physicality and average athleticism probably do make the 3rd round or 4th round the appropriate value area for him.

I would think he is a guy they are looking at right now in the 3rd although there is a chance he last until the 4th. Who knows what they do with FA though.
This team does need a LB or S to bring physicality and hope they bring at least one player in for that

 

[DWinzit]

Yeah Chenal is the LB I am pushing for in the Fa thread, and dug him before the draft. Golday though can do it all, maybe not twitchy but is fast and versatile -- can cover including in the slot, stop the run, pass rush, comes off also as a smart dude.

Wow, I was not very familiar with Golday but he sounds like quite a fit. I can definitely see them looking at Chenal in FA, he feels like their type of target

 

[skinsinparadise]

I think Jacob Rodriguez has good instincts in both run and coverage defense. He is probably just an average athlete and he is not physical. He is not going to take on a blocker in the hole, he is going to make the tackle 4 yards past the line of scrimmage. But in terms of covering his own gap then scraping over and just general instincts, I think he is elite. But his lack of physicality and average athleticism probably do make the 3rd round or 4th round the appropriate value area for him.

Looks like an average athlete, he looks physical enough to me, I look for read-react LB who are around the ball, and he fits that IMO.

His ball punching skills lol remind me of Josh Norman. His 13 forced fumbles are no accident. He's a decent pass rusher, too, nothing special as to pass rushing moves but times his blitzes well.

He aims to be disruptive, punching balls out, putting his hands up to bat ball downs, had 5 sacks in 2024.

Played QB in HS, and transitioned to LB in college.

 

[philibusters]

In their evaluation, Cory and James reached a consensus on Rodriguez’s lack of physiciality. Rather than meeting ball carriers downhill, he tends to wait behind the line of scrimmage, opting to dodge offensive linemen rather than engaging them in the hole. Furthermore, when blockers climb to the second level, Rodriguez struggles with disengaging; he lacks the pop in his hands required to stun opponents and cannot consistently disengage once reached by an OL or TE. While he is a reliable coverage asset with the instincts to shoot open gaps and accumulate tackles, his ceiling in run defense is capped. If you are looking for a violent, downhill thumper who can take on blocks at the line of scrimmage, he will likely disappoint. I think it just depends on the requirements of your defense. In a defense that keeps him clean his lack of physicality probably not a siginificant issue.