The 2025 Free Agency Thread

As fans we always have that blind spot - because we so desperately want every move to be a major hit. Only time will tell (as trite as that sounds)
 
Time doesn't always tell. Have you ever seen historians fight? ;)
 
I don’t think any one is talking about that player because no credible source has announced anything yet.
 
CommDownMan said:
Trying to expand beyond the usual Jimmy Johnson value chart, I've been trying to look at Fitzgerald-Spielberger Draft Value Chart. They seem to be about opposites from all the things I've seen (https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/...fox-assessing-adofo-mensahs-draft-pick-trades).

Adding up based on old charts (https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=hou) vs Fitzgerald-Spielberger (https://overthecap.com/draft-trade-value-chart) there is a big alteration in value.

From my math the Jimmy Johnson value difference would be Tunsil cost ~41-42nd pick in the draft to acquire. (I just used pick 61/131 for the future picks).

And the Fitzgerald-Spielberger cost is about the 9th pick in the draft.

I don't have the premium account to look, but position is a factor that isn't shown on a basic chart. However, I'd say it's fair to say they paid the equivalent of about a mid-first if you use the aggregate. I think the impact along the line will be valuable (so value is needed to acquire), but I will say the return Houston got is likely better than I originally thought in my mind.
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If that’s what you took from those charts then they’re too broken for reasonable usage.

This year we moved down from the mid-3rd to the late-4th. And gave a late 7th, which is a priority UDFA pickup.

Next year we gave a mystery 2nd (we hope late) and a mystery 4th (we hope late).

Under no circumstances, on no chart, is that rationally equivalent to a mid-1st in value lol. It is roughly equivalent, using my medium-sized brain, to a late 3rd this year and an early 2nd next year at most. Which would buy you, in trade, an early 3rd in the current year at best.

If you wanted to play it conservative and altogether call that equivalent to a mid 2nd in value this year, I wouldn’t argue. And I think that would be VERY generous to the Texans (and would still be a great price for a franchise LT).

Sometimes common sense trumps a chart that tries to codify every corner case. Just zoom out and think about what you’re saying.
 
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41. DI Levi Onwuzurike, Detroit Lions--https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2025-nfl-free-agent-rankings​

Onwuzurike has flashed whenever he’s been healthy over his first four seasons in the league after getting drafted one round ahead of recently extended interior defender Alim McNeill in 2021. The former second-round pick out of Washington is the penetrating three-technique interior pass-rusher that every team covets, with his 12.5% pass-rush win rate in 2024 ranking as a top-15 mark at the position.

Top free agent comparison: Sheldon Rankins, 2021​

PlayerRun-defense gradePass-rush gradeTrue pass set pass-rush gradePass-rush win rateAPY as % of Cap at signing
Levi Onwuzurike65.067.872.812.2%?
Sheldon Rankins61.866.172.2
 
Gooseneck said:

41. DI Levi Onwuzurike, Detroit Lions--https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2025-nfl-free-agent-rankings​

Onwuzurike has flashed whenever he’s been healthy over his first four seasons in the league after getting drafted one round ahead of recently extended interior defender Alim McNeill in 2021. The former second-round pick out of Washington is the penetrating three-technique interior pass-rusher that every team covets, with his 12.5% pass-rush win rate in 2024 ranking as a top-15 mark at the position.

Top free agent comparison: Sheldon Rankins, 2021​

PlayerRun-defense gradePass-rush gradeTrue pass set pass-rush gradePass-rush win rateAPY as % of Cap at signing
Levi Onwuzurike65.067.872.812.2%?
Sheldon Rankins61.866.172.2
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To add to your post, GN. He'd be a great get. With Detroit's former Senior Director of player Personnel & now Washington Asst. GM, Lance Newmark knowing all about Levi, one has to wonder if AP strikes or not. Here is a writeup about his back surgery he had and expectations going forward.

lionswire.usatoday.com

Levi Onwuzurike's remarkable recovery from lumbar spinal fusion

Breaking down Lions DL Levi Onwuzurike's remarkable recovery from lumbar spinal fusion
lionswire.usatoday.com
 
Conn said:
If that’s what you took from those charts then they’re too broken for reasonable usage.

This year we moved down from the mid-3rd to the late-4th. And gave a late 7th, which is a priority UDFA pickup.

Next year we gave a mystery 2nd (we hope late) and a mystery 4th (we hope late).

Under no circumstances, on no chart, is that rationally equivalent to a mid-1st in value lol. It is roughly equivalent, using my medium-sized brain, to an early 4th this year and an early 2nd next year at most. Which would buy you, in trade, an early 3rd in the current year at best.

If you wanted to play it conservative and altogether call that equivalent to a mid 2nd in value this year, I wouldn’t argue. And I think that would be VERY generous to the Texans (and would still be a great price for a franchise LT).

Sometimes common sense trumps a chart that tries to codify every corner case. Just zoom out and think about what you’re saying.
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The second trade calculator factors in the cap hits within the trade. If they gain 2nd, 3rd, 7th (wipe out fourths), they are 3 cap hits that barely alter the cap over a 4 year period. I agree that the 7th isn't really much. 3rd rounder (79) and 2nd (64th - hopefully), is about a mid 2nd from a pick differential perspective. But factoring in Tunsils 20mill hit there is more beyond the picks that adds value to Houston. That is the purpose of my post and why I find the Fitzgerald-Spielman method interesting.

I'd make the trade again and think it's right for this team, but I think looking at picks alone without factoring the cap impact is generally ignored. It impacts ability to sign other players and draft cheaper talent to supplement/build. I'm not saying it's a true/gospel-esque answer, but I still think the overall impact from a cost perspective is higher than I originally thought.

I think the impact to Cap isn't generally part of the common sense evaluation. Which is why a ~2nd round value was my initial thought as well.
 
As much as I keep hearing love for Tunsil from multiple Texans beat reporters -- great dude, great player, on and on. And its basically the reverse listening to the Jets reporters about Kinlaw. Not that they are saying he was a bad dude. But now another Jets reporter just on Sheehan saying Kinlaw was disappointing and was shocked he got that kind of money.
 
I'm kind of blown back by the hesitancy about the Tunsil move. He appears to be uniformly considered a top 3 pass protecting LT in the league. Does he run block like Trent? No. But he also doesn't miss games like Trent. He's more Chris Samuels, if Samuels was as actually as good as his reputation in Washington. This gives us, at a minimum, 2 to 3 years of elite LT play and shores up a major hole in the offense. And the price is essentially a 2 and a 3 with a pick swap at 4, and that swap is likely to favor us. That is a steal. This move is one of the things that is going to allow us to actually compete on a level playing field with playoff teams, instead of punching above our weight because of Jayden.

I'd still like to see us shore up edge before the draft. Who do we currently have at DE? Dorance Armstrong and Javontae John-Baptiste? We so obviously aren't going into the draft with just those two guys on the roster.
 
skinsinparadise said:
As much as I keep hearing love for Tunsil from multiple Texans beat reporters -- great dude, great player, on and on. And its basically the reverse listening to the Jets reporters about Kinlaw. Not that they are saying he was a bad dude. But now another Jets reporter just on Sheehan saying Kinlaw was disappointing and was shocked he got that kind of money.
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I think we have a really specific role in mind for Kinlaw. That being said, it's not like we are incapable of making a mistake in FA. Michael Davis really sucked last year. He also wasn't a big money signing.
 
Anselmheifer said:
I think we have a really specific role in mind for Kinlaw. That being said, it's not like we are incapable of making a mistake in FA. Michael Davis really sucked last year. He also wasn't a big money signing.
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Sure every FO makes mistakes. This would be an expensive one but not insanely so. Basically the national media, PFF and name that draft geek think this is the dumbest deal of the FO season or at worse one of the top 3 worst. Not that it matters. Also, most think Peters pulled the biggest coup with the Tunsil trade and that seems to override the ridicule this team got for the Kinlaw deal.

Last time I recall this amount of ridicule for a deal this team made was the Wentz trade. On that one the talking heads were proven right and the deal ended up even more absurdly bad than it was predicted back then. The stakes aren't as high here -- the money isn't as big and no trade capital involved, etc.

Peters either ends up vindicated in a big way -- or he has a strike against him that sticks with the national media which generally loves him.

Not that it matters what the media thinks. But lol, the Jet reporters who I gather watched all his games basically think Washington was on drugs with this one.

I have not watched any of Kinlaw's season so I have no personal opinion on this. But maybe I'll find the time to watch him soon.
 
That’s pretty awesome ^. Refreshing to see a guy stay because he loves his situation (though I suppose it’s possible no one offered more than we did).
 
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