Breer
A few AFC execs weigh in on the talent of this year’s group. Plus, Albert Breer forecasts this week’s frenzy, including who lands with which teams.
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Receiver is ridiculously weak—though that’s been supplemented with some veteran releases, so it’s gotten better [this week],” says another AFC exec. “Tackle’s not very good, but guard’s O.K., center is O.K. And corner, safety and linebacker are all pretty good.”
There’s reason for that, too. The tag number for linebackers is based on pass-rusher contracts since some edge players are classified as outside linebackers rather than defensive ends. The tag number for centers and guards is based on offensive tackle contracts because offensive linemen are grouped together. And safeties, generally, have been devalued a bit, like off-ball linebackers and running backs.
So good players at those spots are always more likely to make it to the market.
...Who gets paid big money?
• The biggest domino on the market fell Saturday night, with the Baltimore Ravens locking down left tackle Ronnie Stanley. He got a three-year, $60 million deal, with $44 million of it fully guaranteed at signing. He’s 31. He missed 37 games between 2020 and ’23, before playing all 17 last year. And that he scored that sort of windfall despite all that shows the value of the position, and the dropoff to the next guy on the market. The Kansas City Chiefs, Washington Commanders and New England Patriots were all poised to make a play for him. And the belief was at least two teams were willing to go past $24 million per year to land Stanley, which shows both his market value, and that, since he took so much less, how badly he wanted to stay a Raven.
• Philadelphia Eagles DT Milton Williams is poised to cash in off a great set of playoff games that ended in a Super Bowl championship. He isn’t for everyone—as a small-ish defensive tackle—and there is some question on what he will look like when he doesn’t have some combination of Fletcher Cox, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis in the rotation with him (that depth is part of why Philly hasn’t re-signed him). But teams such as New England and the Arizona Cardinals could push his market past the $20 million mark.
• Indianapolis Colts DE Dayo Odeyingbo’s a name we raised in
last week’s takeaways. A super-sized edge, some team betting on the 25-year-old’s rise with 15.5 career sacks could wind up having to pay close to $20 million per year for him. The Commanders, who are looking for edge rushers, might be a fit.
...On a receiver market chock full of older vets (Amari Cooper, Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins), there could be a premium on faster weapons. It was reflected in Tutu Atwell getting a one-year, $10 million deal for 2025 from the Los Angeles Rams, which floored other teams, and could foreshadow the New York Giants’ Darius Slayton getting a deal in the eight-figure-per-year range.
lot of the edge rushers come with injury caveats. Los Angeles Chargers castoff Joey Bosa has connections in places such as San Francisco (Nick Bosa/Gus Bradley), Washington (Anthony Lynn), New Orleans (Brandon Staley) and New England (Mike Vrabel), and there’s a thought that he could get close to $15 million on a one-year deal. The Chargers would like to retain his bookend Khalil Mack, but the cost will probably be similar to Bosa’s, and the Chicago Bears might look to bring him back. Super Bowl hero Josh Sweat is a fascinating case in that the knee condition that caused him to drop in the 2018 draft hasn’t cost him as many games as most expected but is still a concern (Arizona’s level of interest in him will be interesting).
With Stanley off the market, my sense is some tackle-hungry teams will prefer Steelers OT Dan Moore Jr. to Minnesota’s Cam Robinson. He’s younger, and cleaner from a football-character standpoint. He also was criticized a bunch toward the end of the year—but Pittsburgh people will tell you that the handful of sacks he gave up were actually on Russell Wilson, not Moore himself. Either way, I think both of these guys get healthy deals, maybe close to $15 million per year on the post-Stanley tackle market.
• Indy’s Will Fries could be another guard that surprises, with Smith tagged, and contending teams such as the Vikings and Houston Texans potentially looking to upgrade on the interior. And while we’re there, teams really like the Atlanta Falcons’ Drew Dalman atop the center market. He could, perhaps, be the last piece of Ryan Poles’s offensive line makeover in Chicago.
Tight end is another spot where the draft class is going to hurt a mediocre crop, with Commanders tight end John Bates a sneaky value drawing interest.
• Along those lines, it’s always hard to find bargains with the big guys. But James Hudson III is one to keep an eye on—he started 17 games over the past four years in Cleveland, was developed as a fourth-round pick by Bill Callahan, and is still just 25 years old. So he won’t break the bank but might get a nice deal to go start somewhere. And maybe a bigger one than former first-round pick Jedrick Wills Jr., once the Browns’ left tackle and now a free agent with a knee issue that’s hurting his value.
• Commanders receiver Dyami Brown is a name some teams are looking at as a potential guy to bet on the future with—he’s never had more than the 308 yards receiving he had during the 2024 regular season, but the flashes he’s shown over four years finally became more consistent in the playoffs. The 25-year-old had 14 catches for 229 yards and a touchdown in Washington’s three postseason games.
...Then, there’s the trade market.
Trey Hendrickson’s a name that, obviously, has been out there—I think it’ll take
at least a second-round pick for the Cincinnati Bengals to move him. The Raiders have a couple of names that have elicited phone calls, including tight end Michael Mayer and receiver Jakobi Meyers (if they sign Tyler Lockett, maybe they’ll be open to the idea of trading Meyers). Niners RB Jordan Mason, a restricted free agent who will probably get a second-round tender from the team, is a name teams are monitoring for a potential trade as well.
...That, again, underscores the larger point made on this group as a whole—it may take some patience, creativity and outside-the-box thinking to “win” the offseason this year.
Which will also make it more difficult to assess, over the next week, who ends up as the big winners. Then again, no one came out of last March proclaiming the Commanders the champions of the offseason. And, now, we can all see how that turned out.
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