The 2025 Draft Thread

[The Chump Bailey]

DQ has done well with Day 3 and UDFA CBs throughout his career - Bland, Sherman, Browner, etc,

CB is a position where you can consistently find good to great players Day 3. Heck, Brownlee and Still were both round 5 picks last year and started for their teams.

I hope we don’t take one early and find a gem round 4 or 5 instead

CB Jaylin Smith USC just may be one of those gems. (whom we've had a meeting with)

 

[mistertim]

I am pretty high on Stewart. He is the freakest athlete of the bunch. To me he is a bit like a Travon Walker. He has a decent floor as a DE2 on a team because he is a good run defender. He had a 88.2 PFF run defense grade last year which is probably the highest of the bunch of the guy who could be available at 29. His sack production was low, but his pressure production which is much more sticky stat was okay. He had 39 pressures. That was higher than his teammate Nick Scourton (likely late first or second round pick) who had 36 pressures (in fairness Scourton PFF pass rush grade was significantly higher 80.6 compared to 67.2) and projected 3rd round DT Shamar Turner who had 21 pressures. So he was on a D-Line with two other players who will likely go in the top 100 this year and he lead the team in pressures.

He also played the 4i a lot (lined up between the Guard and Turner) so he had to rush more like a DT than a DE because there is no threat of that speed rush on the edge when you are playing inside. Scourton had to play the same way which is why he went from like 11 sacks sat Purdue in 2023 to 4 sacks at Texas A&M in 2024. In college where O-Lineman are allowed to get three yards downfield on pass plays (Instead of one), can get downfield unlimited yards if ball is thrown behind the line of scrimmage, teams are just so afraid of the RPO (because they don't find out if it is run or pass as soon as the NFL because the O-Line is allowed to get further down field without a penalty) so by putting the DE's in 4i alignment they defend the inside zone better simply by the alignment and they make it easier to drop the DE in coverage and to trick the offense. But it makes a lot harder to pass rush from that alignment. At this point Stewart is mostly a bull rusher so he condenses the pocket, which is going to help other guys get sack but is not always conducive to him getting sacks. He does need to add more finese moves but he is guy who will collapse the pocket while maintaining lane integrity. I see him as a high floor lottery ticket. I would not be excited to get him with a top 10 pick, but I would be very happy to get him at 29. To get a player who weighed 267 pounds at the combine with longish arms (34.5 inches) who ran in the 4.5s (at the combine, not even a pro day where guys tend to be slightly faster) is a nice lottery ticket. Odds that the lottery ticket hits are unlikely (maybe 15%), but I think his power pass rush profile of collapsing the pocket will translate and he is probably the best run defender of the guys who will be available at 29 so I think his floor is solid.

I don't see that much Travon Walker comparison there. Walker truly did line up all over the place at Georgia, including a lot at 3 tech, was often double teamed, and still put up much more production than Stewart, who hardly ever got double teamed and was almost always lined up as a 5 tech, but occasionally 4. I don't consider 4 tech as playing "inside" very much.

Stewart seems to have a pretty good bull rush, but his speed rush to the outside often took him quickly past the QB as he didn't seem to bend the edge very well. As you noted, finishing was also a big problem for him, and showed up in the film as well. His pass rushing repertoire seemed pretty small, and his counter moves didn't really show up when I was watching.

Yes, he's a good run defender. But a 1st rounder for a run defending DE who is very lackluster at rushing the passer, based purely on the hope that he can get better at the latter, is a stretch to me.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

pretty refreshing that there isn't 500 tweets telling leading up to this with itemized lists.

If it’s not at Top Golf and Keim doesn’t do a hit from the parking lot this is a wasted opportunity.

 

[bifflog]

Yes, he's a good run defender. But a 1st rounder for a run defending DE who is very lackluster at rushing the passer, based purely on the hope that he can get better at the latter, is a stretch to me.

I mean, the Draft is a projection game, so you would imagine, if they take him, they are projecting more from him within the new scheme and new set of coaches. The film, the raw stats, the measurables, are all part of the projection soup and you wouldn't bank on any one at the exclusion of the rest because none are comprehensive.

 

[burgold]

If it’s not at Top Golf and Keim doesn’t do a hit from the parking lot this is a wasted opportunity.

That is a wild coincidence. I was working the social media thread and just came up with my own Top Golf joke.

Great minds, I suppose.

 

[philibusters]

I don't see that much Travon Walker comparison there. Walker truly did line up all over the place at Georgia, including a lot at 3 tech, was often double teamed, and still put up much more production than Stewart, who hardly ever got double teamed and was almost always lined up as a 5 tech, but occasionally 4. I don't consider 4 tech as playing "inside" very much.

Stewart seems to have a pretty good bull rush, but his speed rush to the outside often took him quickly past the QB as he didn't seem to bend the edge very well. As you noted, finishing was also a big problem for him, and showed up in the film as well. His pass rushing repertoire seemed pretty small, and his counter moves didn't really show up when I was watching.

Yes, he's a good run defender. But a 1st rounder for a run defending DE who is very lackluster at rushing the passer, based purely on the hope that he can get better at the latter, is a stretch to me.

They are both 6'5 around 270 pounds and ran in the 4.5's (albeit Walker was 4.51 whereas Stewart was 4.59). I think Stewart was the better college player. In his final season at Texas A&M Stewart had 39 pressures. Trevon Walker only had 21 pressures in his final season. Stewart had higher overall PFF grades, higher pass rush, and higher run defenses grades than Travon Walker (Stewart pass rush grade was 67.2 in 2024 and 73.8 in 2023 whereas Walker was 65.9 and 66.1 his final two years). To me Walker was a more extreme example of Stewart, more of a physical freak, but slightly less productive in college. I definitely like Stewart I rated him as my top pick for guys likely to be there at 29, but I can understand preferring somebody with more instant pass rush juice.

 

[The Chump Bailey]

I'd take Stewart in the 2nd without hesitation personally but do understand the concerns about setting the edge, length and run aspects. I just get the feeling Josaiah is a DQ type of player he would covet.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

That is a wild coincidence. I was working the social media thread and just came up with my own Top Golf joke.

Great minds, I suppose.

Trust me when I tell you you don’t want your mind to think like mine. For your own protect and benefit.

I’m a lost cause. Save yourself!

 

[Primus Porcus]

here we go

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

here we go

If I wasn’t on an Alaskan cruise I would be canvassing Top Golf and Bowlero in Ashburn looking for a party.

 

[mistertim]

They are both 6'5 around 270 pounds and ran in the 4.5's (albeit Walker was 4.51 whereas Stewart was 4.59). I think Stewart was the better college player. In his final season at Texas A&M Stewart had 39 pressures. Trevon Walker only had 21 pressures in his final season. Stewart had higher overall PFF grades, higher pass rush, and higher run defenses grades than Travon Walker (Stewart pass rush grade was 67.2 in 2024 and 73.8 in 2023 whereas Walker was 65.9 and 66.1 his final two years). To me Walker was a more extreme example of Stewart, more of a physical freak, but slightly less productive in college. I definitely like Stewart I rated him as my top pick for guys likely to be there at 29, but I can understand preferring somebody with more instant pass rush juice.

Where are you getting 21 pressures for Travon Walker? I've seen articles indicating that PFF had him at 34 pressures in 2021. And how was Walker less productive than Stewart? You seem to be purely focused on pressures which IMO is slightly cherry picking because that's the stat that backs up your view. But you can't completely disregard actual production stats, and there Stewart was mostly god awful. At least Walker had 6 sacks his last season which, while very mediocre, is over 3 times the 1.5 sacks that Stewart had. And it's not like Stewart was hot and then had a down season. He had the same number of sacks in 2022 and 2023.

Obviously I know far far less about this stuff than AP and DQ, so if they go with Stewart of course I'll hope I'm wrong. But that little production, especially when not even the focal point for the OL and hence rarely getting double teamed, is alarming to me, especially when talking about giving up a 1st round pick for it.

 

[Commander Wraith]

Standig has said they did meet with Henderson at the combine. They met with Jeanty too for whatever reason. Keim has implied Tuten.

I also noticed Keim has brought up Derrick Harmon now twice in recent podcasts in the context of a hypothetical. Keim's hypothetical examples of players usually have meaning. If so, I said this early on, Harmon would be a great get. I know its DT. But its a position we can always use more. It's a rotational spot. Newton hopefully takes it a step up this season. Payne seems like a B level player at best -- but hopefully in a season where his contract is on the line he picks it up. Payne wasn't shy the previous time his contract was up that money was a motivator. And Kinlaw is still a projection, as to whether he finally puts it together.

Harmon is a disrutpive player. In mocks he rarely falls to us but sometimes he does, but will see. Judging by McGinn's reports about the scouts takes -- they think Hamon can fall to the late first. Mock draft types tend to be higher on Harmon then Nolen. McGinn's scouts were higher on Nolen. I like them both but Harmon might be the higher floor player of the two.

I felt like Henderson had been mentioned, but couldn’t recall for sure, so good call. Yeah, Jeanty was kind of a weird one. Shemar Stewart was linked to us, right?

If we stick at 29, seems like the Consensus Big board has Harmon and Stewart as good value, Higgins (more my opinion), Conerly and Hairston (and maybe Amos) as decent value, and then a few guys that are more in that 2nd round mix (probably after a trade back, but maybe one/some last to 61?) - Amos, Landon Jackson, Tuimoloau, Henderson, Noel, Oladejo, Milum and even Belton? Probably plenty I’m forgetting (did I see you mention Tyliek?).

It’s a long wait from 61 to 128… gotta figure they’re going to work hard at a trade back.

Man, this is going to be an interesting draft.

 

[philibusters]

Where are you getting 21 pressures for Travon Walker? I've seen articles indicating that PFF had him at 34 pressures in 2021. And how was Walker less productive than Stewart? You seem to be purely focused on pressures which IMO is slightly cherry picking because that's the stat that backs up your view. But you can't completely disregard actual production stats, and there Stewart was mostly god awful. At least Walker had 6 sacks his last season which, while very mediocre, is over 3 times the 1.5 sacks that Stewart had. And it's not like Stewart was hot and then had a down season. He had the same number of sacks in 2022 and 2023.

Obviously I know far far less about this stuff than AP and DQ, so if they go with Stewart of course I'll hope I'm wrong. But that little production, especially when not even the focal point for the OL and hence rarely getting double teamed, is alarming to me, especially when talking about giving up a 1st round pick for it.

It was 34 pressures. I am not sure what I was looking at.

 

[philibusters]

Where are you getting 21 pressures for Travon Walker? I've seen articles indicating that PFF had him at 34 pressures in 2021. And how was Walker less productive than Stewart? You seem to be purely focused on pressures which IMO is slightly cherry picking because that's the stat that backs up your view. But you can't completely disregard actual production stats, and there Stewart was mostly god awful. At least Walker had 6 sacks his last season which, while very mediocre, is over 3 times the 1.5 sacks that Stewart had. And it's not like Stewart was hot and then had a down season. He had the same number of sacks in 2022 and 2023.

Obviously I know far far less about this stuff than AP and DQ, so if they go with Stewart of course I'll hope I'm wrong. But that little production, especially when not even the focal point for the OL and hence rarely getting double teamed, is alarming to me, especially when talking about giving up a 1st round pick for it.

It was 34 pressures. I am not sure what I was looking at.

 

[skinsinparadise]

 

[RWJ]

Back and forth Yates-Kiper mock where they alternated picks. 3 round mock.

We trade downwith the Browns and end up with Ezeiruaku with the first pick in the 2nd round, then J. Parrish in the late 2nd, and Kaleb Johnson early 3rd.

I could dig this scenario right here! Although, I'd like for us to nab a S with our 4th round pick and at #128 (Bowman or Sanker) would be my targets.

 

[bifflog]

You seem to be purely focused on pressures which IMO is slightly cherry picking because that's the stat that backs up your view. But you can't completely disregard actual production stats...

There is a basis to pressures (or pressure rate) being a better predictive stat than sacks.

Under Pressure? Projecting Sack Numbers using Advanced Pass Rushing Metrics

What stats best project future sack totals and what predictions can we make for some of 2024’s key player?

www.sportsinfosolutions.com

It would worry the heck out of me though, but that's what you get picking at 29 (hopefully close to where we are picking for the foreseeable future!).

 

[RWJ]

 

[Primus Porcus]

I wonder if these guys are truly playing chess.

Bring in groups instead of individuals to continue to 'muddy the waters'. It prevents prospects from reporting back to their agents about specifics, which prevents agents from speaking to media and other teams about what they've heard.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I felt like Henderson had been mentioned, but couldn’t recall for sure, so good call. Yeah, Jeanty was kind of a weird one. Shemar Stewart was linked to us, right?

If we stick at 29, seems like the Consensus Big board has Harmon and Stewart as good value, Higgins (more my opinion), Conerly and Hairston (and maybe Amos) as decent value, and then a few guys that are more in that 2nd round mix (probably after a trade back, but maybe one/some last to 61?) - Amos, Landon Jackson, Tuimoloau, Henderson, Noel, Oladejo, Milum and even Belton? Probably plenty I’m forgetting (did I see you mention Tyliek?).

It’s a long wait from 61 to 128… gotta figure they’re going to work hard at a trade back.

Man, this is going to be an interesting draft.

I didn't mention Tyliek. Stewart is about mock drafters speculating that he can fall that far.

If I had to guess our pick whether its late first or trade down to the early 2nd: It would be one among: L. Jackson, Tuimoloau, Ezeiruaku, Amos, Hairston, Harmon, Henderson.