My fear with RBs is that we sort of find ourselves in a spot kind of like what happened last year with WR, where we wait to hit WR until later in a year with lots of talent, and end up with a guy who needs a bit of seasoning instead of an immediate impact guy.
Now, in fairness to Luke (bc he's a WR) and Newton/Mikey/Sinnott (bc 2nd rounders) we didn't really whiff all that hard, bc all the really impact guys were gone by the time our Newton pick happened. All 7 guys who had more than 500 yards in their 1st year were gone by 34, and furthermore, Luke actually was about the 17th best WR in the class (drafted 16th WR) of 35 drafted (36 worth noting once you add in undrafted Coker who had a solid 478 yard year for Carolina). So he's right on track imo.
Furthermore, we weren't really hurting for an immediate impact WR (well, we were, but I think we weren't expecting to be in the NFC Championship).
This year, bc we don't have any picks after 79 until allllll the way down at 148, we kind of lose a lot of control of our situation post-79.
I STRONGLY suspect there's a Bucky Irving or three after my top 6/7 (which is Jeanty, Hampton, Johnson, Judkins, Henderson, Sampson, and Skattebo in that last spot bc he's a 12/10 on the running angry scale but a little worrying on other aspects), BUT
1) who is it? Devin Neal? Bhayshul Tuten? Ollie Gordon II? Or one of the 17 other guys beyond the 10 mentioned so far?
2) is that guy(s) still there at 148? Odds are good a solid 15-18 guys are gone by the
So for me, while I'm not gonna go way outside BPA, I would be really putting a lot of time/thought into figuring out the best place to strike in the first 3 rounds on an RB, because I don't trust our options after that. Heck, I'm unsure if any of those top 6 make it to 79.
Is Hampton worth 29? Honestly, probably. If Jeanty hadn't sucked all the air out of the room, he'd probably be getting a lot more 1st round discussion. At the same time, he's probably not a top 20 player, so there's a really really good chance someone else at 29 is going to be higher ranked, potentially MUCH higher ranked than Hampton (for example, in some mocks I was doing Mike Green was falling to me at 29, and I'm absolutely running to the podium if Green is still there).
Is Kaleb more than a north-south power back? If so, then he's probably well worth 61, but who else is there? There may be some really solid talent at that point. Does he fall to 79? Probably not. Further, does he really fit with us? I feel like his "floor" is BRob, so how much of an upgrade will he be, and even if he is, unless he's truly a franchise, 20+ carry a week bellcow back, we still need a change of pace back. Can Ekeler still manage that? Kaleb feels like a really good player who maybe just isn't quite the right fit for our team right now.
Judkins is sort of an interesting guy bc he feels like a solid all around back who maybe just falls slightly below the thresholds needed for franchise RB level of play. But he's the kind of guy who I'd love to see what Anthony Lynn could do with. But he's also someone you have to look at really closely to determine where we should take a guy like him. Will he make it to 61? If so do we take him there? If not how likely is it he lasts the 18 picks to 79?
Then you've got the speedsters, the potential Gibbs to BRob's Montgomery, Henderson and Sampson. I like them as a pickup for our team over Kaleb just bc I think we'll get more value out of a young speedster with a BRob power complement than the alternative. The question becomes, how long do they last.
I'd love Henderson or Sampson at 79, but will they make it there? We'll probably have a slightly clearer picture post combine, but as of now, both are kind of all over the place, with Henderson being slated anywhere from the 50s through the 70s, and Sampson anywhere from 53 to 103.
But either way, 79 is the last stop for these guys, and likely a bunch more, prior to 148.
Then we're just hoping someone who is incomplete, but incomplete in a good way for us, is still around at that point. Maybe that's a guy like Tuten (tho I suspect Tuten's stock is gonna shoot up over the course of the draft process), but at the same time we might miss a chance at an impact guy.
TLDR I hope we draft one of the impact guys at 61 or 79 who can help us immediately versus waiting and at best getting a guy who needs some seasoning.