The 2025 Draft Thread

[skinsinparadise]

I don't understand the love for Stewart. I just can't get my head around it.

Has all the tools and none of the production.

I get the thought I didn't want to like him before watching him, that's partly why I took so long to watch. But Chris Simms among others I think nailed it which is you got to factor context. And that starts with them playing him over the tackle some, nose some, its not like he's always rushing. But more on point, he gets about 500 snaps in that rotation, versus a lot of these pass rushers who get around 700 snaps. With an extra 200 snaps, I'd hope the other guys would have more sacks.

But the thing watching him, he's plenty disruptive, his motor runs hot and is an animal against the run. And they double him a lot. Sometimes even triple him as I shown. That's not easy. No doubt he needs to polish his pass rushing skills. But its like going with Travon Walker but without using a high first round pick. Would I take him top 10? Nope, but 29 is plenty fair value IMO.

As far as him being disruptive, the stats bear that out, he's top 10 in this class as to creating hurries even with his much smaller number of his reps. If he got 700 reps like a lot of these guys did, he probably would be top 3 in this class.

If we are talking pure stats, this dude is far from nothing.

Pass rush win rate -- higher numbers than Landon Jackson, Oladejo, Tuimoloau.

QB Hurries -- ranked top 10 in this class, same number as Mike Green, and beat all the others guys we talk about that we think will land at 29 in this category by a good margin in most cases -- yet with 200 or so less reps than most of them.

Dominated the Senior Bowl when there. lol, must have enjoyed the 1 on 1's for a change versus being doubled.

Plays with a high motor.

Is probably the best run stuffer in this class. He or Landon Jackson and to a lesser extent JT or Scourton would be a lot of fun watching set the edge. But Stewart and Landon Jackson are a blast to watch against the run, side to side or catching a run from behind they come off like they take it very personally when a runner takes off to their side of the field. I seriously doubt Barkley is taking many runs to the house on Stewart or Jackson's side of the field. I think Wise was an upgrade in FA as to setting the edge but he's not a monster on that front. Stewart and Landon are monsters against the run, especially Stewart IMO.

Part 8, Edge: Herd of QB Hunters arrive with warnings...

Which prospect with red flags is worth the gamble? Tennessee's James Pearce & Marshall's Mike Green are igniting lively debate in draft meetings. Scouts tell all to our Bob McGinn.

www.golongtd.com

“Height-weight-speed physical freak show,” a third scout said. “He’s almost as good as Abdul Carter. Different guy completely. Good effort player. Plays hard in pursuit and in-line. Why isn’t this guy more productive? Wow edge speed. You really see it coming out of the turn. He’s explosive down the middle of a blocker. He’s really stout at the point. Plays with physicality.

 

[Hail Raiser]

I get the thought I didn't want to like him before watching him, that's partly why I took so long to watch. But Chris Simms among others I think nailed it which is you got to factor context. And that starts with them playing him over the tackle some, nose some, its not like he's always rushing. But more on point, he gets about 500 snaps in that rotation, versus a lot of these pass rushers who get around 700 snaps. With an extra 200 snaps, I'd hope the other guys would have more sacks.

But the thing watching him, he's plenty disruptive, his motor runs hot and is an animal against the run. And they double him a lot. Sometimes even triple him as I shown. That's not easy. No doubt he needs to polish his pass rushing skills. But its like going with Travon Walker but without using a high first round pick. Would I take him top 10? Nope, but 29 is plenty fair value IMO.

As far as him being disruptive, the stats bear that out, he's top 10 in this class as to creating hurries even with his much smaller number of his reps. If he got 700 reps like a lot of these guys did, he probably would be top 3 in this class.

If we are talking pure stats, this dude is far from nothing.

Pass rush win rate -- higher numbers than Landon Jackson, Oladejo, Tuimoloau.

QB Hurries -- ranked top 10 in this class, same number as Mike Green, and beat all the others guys we talk about that we think will land at 29 in this category by a good margin in most cases -- yet with 200 or so less reps than most of them.

Dominated the Senior Bowl when there. lol, must have enjoyed the 1 on 1's for a change versus being doubled.

Plays with a high motor.

Is probably the best run stuffer in this class. He or Landon Jackson and to a lesser extent JT or Scourton would be a lot of fun watching set the edge. But Stewart and Landon Jackson are a blast to watch against the run, side to side or catching a run from behind they come off like they take it very personally when a runner takes off to their side of the field. I seriously doubt Barkley is taking many runs to the house on Stewart or Jackson's side of the field. I think Wise was an upgrade in FA as to setting the edge but he's not a monster on that front. Stewart and Landon are monsters against the run, especially Stewart IMO.

Part 8, Edge: Herd of QB Hunters arrive with warnings...

Which prospect with red flags is worth the gamble? Tennessee's James Pearce & Marshall's Mike Green are igniting lively debate in draft meetings. Scouts tell all to our Bob McGinn.

www.golongtd.com

“Height-weight-speed physical freak show,” a third scout said. “He’s almost as good as Abdul Carter. Different guy completely. Good effort player. Plays hard in pursuit and in-line. Why isn’t this guy more productive? Wow edge speed. You really see it coming out of the turn. He’s explosive down the middle of a blocker. He’s really stout at the point. Plays with physicality.

I get Allen/Payne vibes and while I've been higher on them than most, I know it's time to move on.

It's the same arguments I've made for them for years and still do, honestly.

He also sounds a lot like Kinlaw, which is not a compliment.

 

[RWJ]

Jordan Magee and the stupid fucking Tubby mascot are our Temple guys.

More Temple players please. I thought there was more.

It's definitely time for an our guys thread, which I normally never contribute too, but I feel like it this year.

Really liked the Magee pick last year. Hopefully the injury bug is behind him and he comes out ready to play!

 

[RWJ]

Whether it's character issues or players being too high up in the draft that won't realistically fall to us there is only one player I'd draft at #29 should he be there and that's EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku. Otherwise, I'd trade down.

 

[RWJ]

I get Allen/Payne vibes and while I've been higher on them than most, I know it's time to move on.

It's the same arguments I've made for them for years and still do, honestly.

He also sounds a lot like Kinlaw, which is not a compliment.

Trusting AP on the re-signing of Kinlaw. Hope he sees or knows something we don't about Kinlaw but I agree about Shemar Stewart.

 

[Hailtoem]

Question, I've been thinking about this since yesterday, who are y'alls "not trading back" for guys that wouldn't be reaches. Like, realistic possibly there at 29, not trade back guys.

Hairston, McMillian, Golden Loveland, Morrison, Thomas, Simmons is probably my first line.

Egbuka, Starks, Mannomori, Amos, Harris, Burden, Pearce, Eze I don't know but I'd probably want to drop.

I still think it's going QB 1,2,3 and it'll cause panic. Patriots have the most interesting pick, but if it goes QB like that, I see them drop back. Panthers are shopping their pick and they're right before NO who is QB needy. I could see NO going up 1 pick for Dart and then the Panther trading to the Steelers so they can get Milroe. No idea.

Could be a normal draft and bad QBs go day two, but I doubt it. Copycat league. DT is going to be over drafted because of the Eagles and I really think teams are going to not be patient and will come up for the QBs. Easy 4 QBs in top 10.

There are only 2 consensus top 10 DL, no CBs, no OTs, no WRs and outside of QB those are the positions you come up for.

I'm super high on Jeanty and Warren, but a RB and TE in the top ten? I'm not buying it.

I don't think there is any way that it goes QB 1,2,3. Not with Carter and Hunter on the board. Even teams that would trade up for a QB would be foolish to trade up that high for one. Copycat league or not this year's QB draft is not close to last years.

 

[Hail Raiser]

I don't think there is any way that it goes QB 1,2,3. Not with Carter and Hunter on the board. Even teams that would trade up for a QB would be foolish to trade up that high for one. Copycat league or not this year's QB draft is not close to last years.

The Browns and Giants have trash QB rooms. They both need them. NO is probably going QB and Pitt definitely is, so if you need a QB, you aren't trading back into the back of the first.

 

[Bulldog]

The guys Ron drafted weren’t just mediocre players - these guys like Jamin Davis and Forbes simply couldn’t play in the NFL, period.

Within one year ALL of these #1picks and most of the #2s and #3s from the regime were cut.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Good deal.

Yeah, obviously none of these analysts are anything remotely close to infallible. Green was just the most recent guy I heard talking Commanders specific draft stuff, so his comment on Tuten was fresh in my mind. I was just curious about how you viewed Tuten’s vision... it wasn’t meant as an “Oh yeah? Well Green says x”. Glad to see the scout commend his vision… even if I’m a little unsure about his comment about Tuten coming in as a number 2 but seeing him as a number 2, lol. I suppose he’s just pointing out that Tuten comes across like a really good change up back, which we could certainly use. If he becomes more, that’s icing on the cake.

And I’m with you on not holding the Coleman weight thing against Green - he’s looked at something like 1,000+ prospects since that time and more importantly, I think his view - that Coleman’s better suited to G - is probably fair (and probably the general consensus). Not that it matters - it’s about what our coaches think best serves the team. And to be fair to Coleman, performing like he did (within the positive range of rookie OTs, even if he was a bit rough), without much of an offseason was pretty impressive. Moving to RT could be perfect for him/us.

The thing that hit me on Coleman was how definitive he said it. So no matter what his opinions they come in hard. That's fine. Again, for me, because he's entertaining. Love his metaphors. And agree with many of his takes. But it doesn't faze me how definitive he comes off -- there are some takes I disagree with. Tuten is one of them and i got narratives and stats to back my point over his.

As to Tuten's vision, I don't see any red flags. I posted the scouts takes (from McGinn) on Tuten where one highlighted Tuten's vision as his strength.

I find it very hard to guage vision watching RBs unless is strikes you as blatantly bad. For example, Judkins who I like on the aggregate, seems to struggle with it to my eyes on two fronts -- he will run into his men, and then when he's in the open field he isn't great at dodging defenders in spite of his speed. In open field, its about weaving in and out of traffic and anticipating where the defender is going. Kalen Johnson for example who isn't as fast as Judkins still seems to see the defenders in open field. IMO part of being elusive is good vision -- darting from one crease to another crease. Some of that is agility. Some of that IMO is vision. Some of that is contact balance to stay on your feet if you get hit.

It's easy to knock ANY RB for vision because its impossible to see it on every down. If every RB spot every crease and every defender on every run, they'd be taking it to the house, all the time. So when I read about some RBs "inconsistent vision", I think yeah, they all are inconsistent, you aren't going to see it every down.

Tuten has the 3rd best elusive score from PFF. Tied for 3rd best in missed tackles in this group. He's a good returner. Tough to be a good returner with bad vision.

My issue with Tuten is I don't think he's hot making something out of nothing on the first level -- like Dylan Sampson or Jordan James can do among some others in this class. But once he builds a little momentum, he's a handful both as to his speed and physicality. He needs a block to set him up. There are others in this class like that too, Kaleb Johnson, Treveon Henderson but once he builds a little momentum watch out. James will get stopped after he pushes for some yards. Sampson often too even though he's fast. If you give Tuten a good block or some space, he will fly.

 

[DogofWar1]

I don't think NO goes QB.

Jeremy Greene talked to a beat reporter from NO who is about as in the know as someone can be, and he advised he expects Mykel Williams to be the pick.

 

[RWJ]

 

[skinsinparadise]

I get Allen/Payne vibes and while I've been higher on them than most, I know it's time to move on.

It's the same arguments I've made for them for years and still do, honestly.

He also sounds a lot like Kinlaw, which is not a compliment.

I think Jonathan Allen was good here. Also, I don't think he's a good comp to Stewart. Allen if we are comparing to an edge rusher would be more like a comp to Scourton -- good consistent player, leader, but not an athletic freak.

I admit Payne I've always had mixed feelings on. I liked Vea and Fitzpatrick and D. James a ton in that draft. And I recall the Vea debates in particular where it become in vogue to say with some, hey Payne is at least better than Vea. I didn't get that, to me Vea was a monster. Vea ended up a monster in the NFL for most albiet not all of his career. Payne for exception of his contract year ended up exactly like some of the ones on the draft thread thought he would be -- good player, nothing special, not a game changer.

And my angst about Payne increased with the narratives I heard about how while he wasn't lazy but also wasn't the hardest worker -- yet seemed driven his contract year and let the whole world know he just wants his money. Standig actually joked about this on Keim's last podcast saying they should tell Payne that its a contract year and after this year will be gone like Allen if he doesn't produce -- maybe then we will get the A version of Payne. Mark Bullock who watched all his reps, thinks the Payne career year was a bit overblown, and it was about Jonathan Allen killing it that year and was doubled constantly and Payne wasn't and he feasted in some games off of backup guards.

As bad as Stewarts production is, its not like Payne at Alabama. And hurries matter, its a category for a reason. Also Stewart is a monster against the run. I think the biggest mischaraterization of Payne by the local media is that he's great against the run. He's not. He's OK against the run, nothing special.

But to your point, you want to gauge Stewart's personality. I don't think Payne's a bad guy. He comes off ordinary to me by reputation -- not lazy, but not that driven. Not much of a leader -- quiet dude. Clearly, motivated to get paid -- he made that clear as a bell when it was his contract year. He's durable. That's his super power. But I do agree he should be better than he's played considering his talent. He's more physically gifted than some of the other DTs coming out of Alabama like a J. Reed or Tomlinson. Yet, arguably they've had better careers than Payne.

Tough to tell for me Stewart's personality. I watched a couple of interviews. He's definitiely much more lively a dude than Payne, has a contagious laugh. But I don't know how driven he is or not. But look the dude had a good amount of pressures in college, he needs to learn how to finish. But when watching him, I never thought this dude isn't bringing some heat and disrupting the play. Payne isn't constantly bringing heat yet simply doesn't finish. Payne can just dissapear in games and be handled fine with just one blocker often. Stewart isn't dissapearing and good luck dealing with him without doubling him.

 

[Hail Raiser]

I think Jonathan Allen was good here. Also, I don't think he's a good comp to Stewart. Allen if we are comparing to an edge rusher would be more like a comp to Scourton -- good consistent player, leader, but not an athletic freak.

I admit Payne I've always had mixed feelings on. I liked Vea and Fitzpatrick and D. James a ton in that draft. And I recall the Vea debates in particular where it become in vogue to say with some, hey Payne is at least better than Vea. I didn't get that, to me Vea was a monster. Vea ended up a monster in the NFL for most albiet not all of his career. Payne for exception of his contract year ended up exactly like some of the ones on the draft thread thought he would be -- good player, nothing special, not a game changer.

And my angst about Payne increased with the narratives I heard about how while he wasn't lazy but also wasn't the hardest worker -- yet seemed driven his contract year and let the whole world know he just wants his money. Standig actually joked about this on Keim's last podcast saying they should tell Payne that its a contract year and after this year will be gone like Allen if he doesn't produce -- maybe then we will get the A version of Payne. Mark Bullock who watched all his reps, thinks the Payne career year was a bit overblown, and it was about Jonathan Allen killing it that year and was doubled constantly and Payne wasn't and he feasted in some games off of backup guards.

As bad as Stewarts production is, its not like Payne at Alabama. And hurries matter, its a category for a reason. Also Stewart is a monster against the run. I think the biggest mischaraterization of Payne by the local media is that he's great against the run. He's not. He's OK against the run, nothing special.

But to your point, you want to gauge Stewart's personality. I don't think Payne's a bad guy. He comes off ordinary to me by reputation -- not lazy, but not that driven. Not much of a leader -- quiet dude. Clearly, motivated to get paid -- he made that clear as a bell when it was his contract year. He's durable. That's his super power. But I do agree he should be better than he's played considering his talent. He's more physically gifted than some of the other DTs coming out of Alabama like a J. Reed or Tomlinson. Yet, arguably they've had better careers than Payne.

Tough to tell for me Stewart's personality. I watched a couple of interviews. He's definitiely much more lively a dude than Payne, has a contagious laugh. But I don't know how driven he is or not. But look the dude had a good amount of pressures in college, he needs to learn how to finish. But when watching him, I never thought this dude isn't bringing some heat and disrupting the play. Payne isn't constantly bringing heat yet simply doesn't finish. Payne can just dissapear in games and be handled fine with just one blocker often. Stewart isn't dissapearing and good luck dealing with him without doubling him.

His personality seems great. Total team first guy.

Payne was a monster against the run when he first came to us. He was the only change on a defense that went from 32 against the run to top 10.

 

[skinsinparadise]

His personality seems great. Total team first guy.

Payne was a monster against the run when he first came to us. He was the only change on a defense that went from 32 against the run to top 10.

I don't know about a monster against the run but was good initially IMO. This team has stuggled against the run in various (not all) seasons, not just last year. His PFF grades are below average to bad for 4 seasons running now against the run.

More than anything, what soured me some on Payne was one year I did rewatch the games with a focus on the D line and put a lot of clips on the board. It wasn't hard to spot that Payne was handled often by a guard without needing to double him. Not always but often. Allen seemed to get more doubles.

Not that i agree with Mark Bullock always but to his credit he charts every game very closely. And some of his recent thoughts on Payne -- was he was handled often by just one blocker, not much of a pass rushing arsenal, Jonathan Allen the distinctly better player.

I think Payne is solid. B minus type of player. But we are paying him like he's an elite DT. Easily the most overpaid player on the team. Multiple people who cover the team have said it would have been Payne not Allen dumped off season if it were not for the contract situations.

And when you got a beat reporter joking that maybe we can get the best out of Payne by putting him on notice that money is on the line this season -- it brings home the idea that he might be a bit driven too much by external things versus internal drive.

 

[Hail Raiser]

I don't know about a monster against the run but was good initially IMO. This team has stuggled against the run in various (not all) seasons, not just last year. His PFF grades are below average to bad for 4 seasons running now against the run.

More than anything, what soured me some on Payne was one year I did rewatch the games with a focus on the D line and put a lot of clips on the board. It wasn't hard to spot that Payne was handled often by a guard without needing to double him. Not always but often. Allen seemed to get more doubles.

Not that i agree with Mark Bullock always but to his credit he charts every game very closely. And some of his recent thoughts on Payne -- was he was handled often by just one blocker, not much of a pass rushing arsenal, Jonathan Allen the distinctly better player.

I think Payne is solid. B minus type of player. But we are paying him like he's an elite DT. Easily the most overpaid player on the team. Multiple people who cover the team have said it would have been Payne not Allen dumped off season if it were not for the contract situations.

And when you got a beat reporter joking that maybe we can get the best out of Payne by putting him on notice that money is on the line this season -- it brings home the idea that he might be a bit driven by external things versus internal drive.

I agree with you. He was my favorite player for years, but he's done now that he got paid.

 

[DWinzit]

For WR, Higgins defintiely but will have 2 different WRs. Noel would be close for me. Ayomanor definitiely not on it.

One early day 3 receiver I left off my list but I think he has the juice is Jaylin Lane. I am fairly high on him as he has shown something that many of, even the bigger guys haven't, the ability to separate.

 

[bifflog]

 

[skinsinparadise]

I agree with you. He was my favorite player for years, but he's done now that he got paid.

Not that we can tell from our couches but he's a case in point where personality matters.

He is super quiet, not the most well spoken guy. At least some of his coaches have leaked while he's not lazy he's also not the hardest worker. Multiple people who have studied him say he's not much of a technician in his play.

Juxtaposed that with Terry who comes off like he can run for president. Jonathan Allen, too. Both work at their craft.

It's part of the reason going back to this draft that its tough to ignore dudes who are off the charts on these variables -- dudes like Ebuka. Apparenty, Jeanty is like that. Among the RBs, RJ Harvey, Henderson, Devin Neal, TJ Brooks.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Speaking of Payne, am sticking with Derrick Harmon or Nolan (if his character checks out) at 29 if either falls. Harmon more likely to fall.

Johnny Newton is developing as a pass rusher but isn't good against the run. Payne is pedestrian both as a pass rusher and run stuffer. It's not crazy to upgrade there.

I gather Tyler from Hogs Haven thinks its foolish to take a DT early and posts a bit on it. I agree-disagree with his takes. But he's entertaining on twitter. So got no issue with him. But lol, he will blow a gasket if they take a DT and seems to think there is little chance they do so including mentioning Keim isn't talking about DTs. But he's wrong about Keim. If my count is right, Keim has mentioned Harmon now in 4 different podcasts. I doubt its some wild coincidence. Keim rarely keeps bringing up a name for no reason.

DT's who bring some pass rush aren't easy to find let alone in the late first. If you like a DT more, take the DT over the edge IMO. Not that interviews are the be all and end all but IMO he comes off well in public interviews.

 

[RWJ]

One early day 3 receiver I left off my list but I think he has the juice is Jaylin Lane. I am fairly high on him as he has shown something that many of, even the bigger guys haven't, the ability to separate.

Keep an eye on WR Nick Nash from San Jose State. A tall, super competitive WR that will likely go on Day 3 too. You've probably heard of him but here is some tape. We've met with him too.