Should we be worried about K Matt Gay?

[Boone]

With the number of close games the Commanders played in 2024, I think being concerned about what we have in kicker Matt Gay is warranted.

Although Gay got early praise in the offseason and training camp, he has looked shaky in preseason sparking a lot of concern from fans. Given the greatest predictor of future performance is REAL past performance (not preseason success), I thought it would be worth reviewing how Gay stands up compared to league-wide kicking averages since he joined the league in 2019.

Here's what I found:

Overall FGs made %: Since 2019, the overall % of field goals made has ranged from 81-86%. Gay has made 86% of his attempts.
FGs made between 30-39 yards: Since 2019, the average % of field goals made has ranged from 93-98%. Gay has made 93%.
FGs made between 40-49 yards: Since 2019, the average % of field goals made has ranged from 77-80%. Gay has made 86%.
FGs made from 50 yards and beyond: Since 2019, the average % of field goals made has ranged from 53-71%. Gay has made 62%.
Extra Points made: Since 2019, the average % of XPs made has ranged from 93-95%. Gay has made 96%.

So, in summary (from a statistical POV only - not taking into account things like 'high pressure' kicks in critical situations), Gay is above average in overall field goals made. He has underperformed the average on shorter kicks of 30-39 yards, but is among the leagues best at mid-range kicks of 40-49 yards. Gay has been average on field goals of 50 yards and beyond. On extra points, Gay is among the most reliable of NFL kickers.

It is worth mentioning Gay made the Pro Bowl in 2021.

So - if you are looking to worry, there are things to find concern over. Too many missed chip shot FGs and not enough makes from 50 and beyond. If you are looking to be reassured, overall Gay is at the top of the league in terms of overall accuracy and shines on mid-range distance kicks. He rarely misses an extra point.

I think we are going to be in good shape with Gay, preseason performance aside.

 

[Ashburn Dave]

Kickers are a different breed, and I don't mean in a good way either. More of a weird way IMO.

How many times have we seen kickers run off of one team only to become pro bowlers with their next team? It happens all the time.

I'm hoping we can give Gay more time to find his confidence or whatever it is he needs in order for him to feel confident he can make every big kick.

 

[Chris 44]

With the number of close games the Commanders played in 2024, I think being concerned about what we have in kicker Matt Gay is warranted.

Although Gay got early praise in the offseason and training camp, he has looked shaky in preseason sparking a lot of concern from fans. Given the greatest predictor of future performance is REAL past performance (not preseason success), I thought it would be worth reviewing how Gay stands up compared to league-wide kicking averages since he joined the league in 2019.

Here's what I found:

Overall FGs made %: Since 2019, the overall % of field goals made has ranged from 81-86%. Gay has made 86% of his attempts.
FGs made between 30-39 yards: Since 2019, the average % of field goals made has ranged from 93-98%. Gay has made 93%.
FGs made between 40-49 yards: Since 2019, the average % of field goals made has ranged from 77-80%. Gay has made 86%.
FGs made from 50 yards and beyond: Since 2019, the average % of field goals made has ranged from 53-71%. Gay has made 62%.
Extra Points made: Since 2019, the average % of XPs made has ranged from 93-95%. Gay has made 96%.

So, in summary (from a statistical POV only - not taking into account things like 'high pressure' kicks in critical situations), Gay is above average in overall field goals made. He has underperformed the average on shorter kicks of 30-39 yards, but is among the leagues best at mid-range kicks of 40-49 yards. Gay has been average on field goals of 50 yards and beyond. On extra points, Gay is among the most reliable of NFL kickers.

It is worth mentioning Gay made the Pro Bowl in 2021.

So - if you are looking to worry, there are things to find concern over. Too many missed chip shot FGs and not enough makes from 50 and beyond. If you are looking to be reassured, overall Gay is at the top of the league in terms of overall accuracy and shines on mid-range distance kicks. He rarely misses an extra point.

I think we are going to be in good shape with Gay, preseason performance aside.

Appreciate the research...show me as one of the ones concerned. This makes feel a bit better. Hope your right.

 

[Ashburn Dave]

This was an interesting article about kickers and how it is better to find them in free agency instead of drafting one. I'm willing to give Gay a year to find his happy place with us.

Full article - https://sportsanalytics.studentorg.berkeley.edu/articles/nfl-kicker-problem.html

 

[Faithful Fan]

I'm willing to give Gay a year to find his happy place with us.

I see what you did there.

 

[Ashburn Dave]

I see what you did there.

I'll take credit for that one even though I was really thinking of this instead.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

"He doesn't have to play, doc. He has to kick." Bill Parcells.

Kickers are funky.

Am I worried? Yes. Have I been worried basically since Chip Lohmiller left the team? Yes.

Shrug. I don't think they should "do" anything yet. But they also should keep all the available kickers on speed dial because what you don't want to do is get into a situation where you have to do something and you're forced into doing something you don't want to do.

 

[Command The Best]

Am I worried? Yes. Have I been worried basically since Chip Lohmiller left the team? Yes.

Exactly, we’ve not had a kicker who we can sleep soundly at night since Chip imho, sad thing too is some of the kicker we’ve had over the years went on to be great kickers elsewhere… Gano being 1 and David Akers another…. Hmm that 10 gm suspension can’t end fast enough for Justin Tucker (he might not be signed by us, but he’ll be signed by some team before seasons end imho)

 

[NickyJ]

I have no trust in Gay. I don't have much trust in any kicker, but I have even less trust in a kicker who has been released by 3 teams before us. I wish the team had taken more chances on free agents who are rookies or never played more than a few games for any team.

If they stuck around with any team long enough, those teams must have seen some value worth holding onto. If the teams let them go after that long, they must have seen some strong evidence that it was time to give up. Suisham and Gano hurt for what they became, but I think they're outliers.

Aside from extreme cases, the only history a free agent kicker can have to me is a bad history.

 

[SkinsFTW]

Lohmiller was a 70% kicker. We can definitely find better, and have, and let them go elsewhere.

 

[Boone]

Kickers are a different breed, and I don't mean in a good way either. More of a weird way IMO.

How many times have we seen kickers run off of one team only to become pro bowlers with their next team? It happens all the time.

I'm hoping we can give Gay more time to find his confidence or whatever it is he needs in order for him to feel confident he can make every big kick.

Interestingly enough, there are at least 2 kickers previously with Washington (Slye and Gano) who have not missed a kick in preseason. I liked Slye and thought it was probably a mistake to not retain him, but who knows?

 

[Boone]

"He doesn't have to play, doc. He has to kick." Bill Parcells.

Kickers are funky.

Am I worried? Yes. Have I been worried basically since Chip Lohmiller left the team? Yes.

Shrug. I don't think they should "do" anything yet. But they also should keep all the available kickers on speed dial because what you don't want to do is get into a situation where you have to do something and you're forced into doing something you don't want to do.

Yeah, I'm not very confident on Gay even though I listed some positives. My main point was that previous performance is a better predictor of future performance than some preseason games. His career numbers say he's an average to above average kicker.

 

[MartinC]

I’m always concerned about kickers - it’s such a mental thing. Gay has been a quality kicker but the last two years he’s been low 80’s in FG %. Have to worry if he’s just not mentally the guy he was during the two hot years he has in LA when he was mid 90’s in %.

High odds we have kickers on speed dial and that we end up having more than one guy kick FGs this season.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Yeah, I'm not very confident on Gay even though I listed some positives. My main point was that previous performance is a better predictor of future performance than some preseason games. His career numbers say he's an average to above average kicker.

And I'd take an average to above average kicker in most instances.

I just don't know why we can't find a really good kicker. I would draft one if there was one to draft anywhere after the 4th round if you are pretty sure he can make the team. I know we tried a few years ago and it didn't work out. But the way I see it, 5-7th rounders are generally special teams contributors anyway, and much more than half of them are out of the league in 2-3 years, so if you're picking a specialist who is going to be a special teamer, why not? Fits the general mold.

I'm not sure there is anybody substantially better than the kicker we have now who is out on the market. Shrug. Maybe.

However, this might be a problem which we are going to have to live with this year because there aren't other options. I dunno.

I would have had 2 kickers in camp and have a competition. In fact, I'd ALWAYS have 2 kickers in camp and have a competition unless you have a pro bowl caliber kicker. Because they can get the yips because Starbucks discontinued their favorite coffee flavor. And you never see the yips coming.

 

[RWJ]

I’m always concerned about kickers - it’s such a mental thing. Gay has been a quality kicker but the last two years he’s been low 80’s in FG %. Have to worry if he’s just not mentally the guy he was during the two hot years he has in LA when he was mid 90’s in %.

High odds we have kickers on speed dial and that we end up having more than one guy kick FGs this season.

Hopefully one of them, if released is PK Ben Sauls from Pitt currently on the Steelers rosters who may be cut.

 

[DieselPwr44]

Keep whistling past the graveyard.....

 

[Chris 44]

Keep whistling past the graveyard.....

Maybe the ball was hard due to the cold, sun in eyes, late season wear and tear on turf, pressure of a game winni.....nevermind

 

[RexTomb]

Maybe the ball was hard due to the cold, sun in eyes, late season wear and tear on turf, pressure of a game winni.....nevermind

 

[bowhunter]

Lohmiller was a 70% kicker. We can definitely find better, and have, and let them go elsewhere.

I remember my best friend teasingly calling him Chip "Wide-and Low-Miller"

 

[NoCalSkins]

I feel like there is no rhyme or reason for what/why/when kickers are reliable. A kicker can be inconsistent on one team, get cut, go to a new team and for no good reason becomes automatic and then when you bring in a new kicker that you are so sure will be an upgrade, suddenly starts becoming inconsistent out of nowhere.