Redskins Get #2 Pick!

[Boone]

So does any one support a trade of our #2 pick this year to the Browns for their 2 firstrounders this year and their first rounder next year?

Pissing off the Rams is beside the point. We made this deal to get our franchise QB, and we're not going to walk away from him now that he's in our sights.

 

[Miles Monroe]

I can think of a few better ways to celebrate than downing those

LOL... the news has me beyond pumped.

Hey, I can envision a young star QB peaking at mid season, and a playoff run behind a strong running game, and a solid D.

We do tend to win it all right after the Giants

My celebration was a nice chianti, stuffed artichoke, and twin stuffed quail. The espresso with the double shot of sambuca gives a nice warm finish to the night.

If I wake in the morning to find the team looking for a LT, and moving Williams to the right side, somebody may have to pinch me, as the entire night might have been a dream....

 

[Boone]

Pete - thoroughly enjoying your reaction
I was lucky last night - happened to be on Twitter at the moment this hit the internet and got it up here almost immediately. Waiting for folks to get the word and show up here (so I could have some company discussing/celebrating) was excruciating.

 

[APB]

Congratulations, Redskins!

I gotta say, I was a bit surprised to hear the price paid, but if the belief is that he's the guy then you gotta go get him. Took some cajones to make this move, just hope he turns out to be as good as advertised.

Heck, if nothing else Grossman is now just a bad memory. That's reason enough to celebrate!

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

Boone, we are paying 3 firsts and a high second rounder to get the player thats the actual cost, but when you look at it your way its worse, we gave up 2 firsts and a high second rounder effectively to move up 4 spots in the draft, I dont have a copy of the draft chart with me, but im reasonably sure thats a no lube sort of deal. especially given that with a rookie qb playing behind our oline, we are likely to have a top 10 selection next year at least. Suddenly those of us who suggested that trying to win games that we had no reason to win was stupid, look like friggin geniuses, but dont worry we dont expect an apology, after all first round picks arent that important lmao.

I dont understand all you people, you all preach about patience, yet freaked out when Mcrapp busted (rightfully so but it was obvious it was gonna happen yet a lot of you supported the move), still preached patience at me when I was one of the few who understood what a gongshow the defence switch was before it wasted a year for us and then some of you somehow thought that our "improvement " to get back to where we were in the first place was some sort of good thing. newsflash going from 11 to 31 back to 12 is not a win, yeah we got younger, we could have done the exact same thing without the epic fail, teams do it all the time. This was not a patient move made by a rebuilding team, if we were one year farther along, had a decent Oline and no major holes, I would be celebrating along with you guys, because THATS when you go for broke we won how many games last season?

what do you think ,that we did this because it was best for the team long term? this was done to save Shannys job, now we can go 6-10 and he wont get fired, he bought himself one more season, truth be told, we just added massive pressure onto a young QB who will be playing in one of the biggest markets for a fanbase that has sufered after being a great team then being terrible for 2 decades...., will you be patient when he doesnt play like Newton? will you not scream for his head when he plays like a rookie? will you resist the urge to scream WE PAID A RIDICULOUS PRICE FOR YOU, A PRICE THAT WAS HIGHER THAN ANYTHING PAID IN THE LAST 25 YEARS if he doesnt win the ROY or make the prowbowl and lead us to the playoffs next season?

we better be signing stud olinemen, because if this kid gets hurt (and yes running qbs do tend to get hurt a LOT *see Vick, Mike) lol ah well, I will be cheering for him, Ive just resigned myself to being a fan for a team that is impatient and stupid.

 

[CarolinaSkin43]

How can you not like what has been done......I honesstly would rather have RGIII than Luck....but I second the move we made ......very excited to see what happens next ...this is way to groovy....

 

[Neophyte]

Ryman,

Has it occurred to you that Mike and Bruce where reportedly not the only guys willing to make this move? Shanahan has been pretty close to money on QB evaluation in the last 15 years. And Mike Holmgren is one of the other best evaluators of the position in the league.

They were both in this to win it.

Late reports are that the Browns offered up even more then we did but that they were just too late and the deal had been struck. Throw in rumors that other teams were also in play and we are talking 4 or 5 GM/Head Coach combinations willing to talk about giving up at least as much as the Giants did for Eli or more for a shot at this kid.

And we aren't as bad as you think. The offensive line is decent. Not spectacular but not the pits either. They blocked well enough for two rookies to post 100 yard games in each of the last 5 matches of the season. Our receivers were running open in the secondary more times than I could count last year but poor QB play left them with nothing to catch. And I'm not talking about the defense with you anymore.

This kid isn't Mike Vick. He is comfortable in the pocket and throws a seriously accurate ball from back there or from on the run. Sure, he has a lot of yards on the ground but a lot of those are from designed rushing plays where he was supposed to run. That just won't happen in the NFL where he will nearly always only run if he has too and even then I see in this kid the ability to keep looking downfield.

Sorry but I don't think this was stupid at all. I think it had to be done and I would have made this trade every day of the week and twice on Sundays. My guess is by the end of next season, you will be agreeing with me too.

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

Neo,
Donovan Mcrapp, rex grossman, John Beck, Chase Daniels,Jason Campbell. those were all mistakes made by Shanny judging qbs RECENTLY.how many hall of fame qbs has Shanny drafted? how many pobowlers? I am pretty sure he made his bones as a qb evaluator when he was an OC but his missteps here have me really questioning his evaluation skills.

Our Oline was terrible, we playe ok against weak Dlines against dcent Dlines, we got no push, got dominated on short yards and never delivered in the clutch, we have a barely adequate LT, weak guards a solid center and a RT who is done.

we dont have terrible receivers but they arent great, to me they hinge on hankerson being healthy, which an acl is rarely ok until the second year after.

I am genuinely hoping this kid has a Newton type season, but thats ONE guy who has done that.

 

[China]

I'm not impressed with our organizations's negotiating skills. That extra 2nd brings back memories of Vinny. Even he wouldn't have paid more than Bruce and Shanny just did.

Sometimes people don't see the big picture. This wasn't a deal in isolation. It was a bidding war with Cleveland. The Redskins would have paid less if they could have, but to get what they wanted they had to outbid Cleveland. They got what they wanted because they were willing to pay a higher price, it's not like that was their first offer, or that they just threw that 2nd in willy-nilly.

I'm happy we'll finally have a long-term answer at QB. It's been a long time.

 

[Boone]

Boone, we are paying 3 firsts and a high second rounder to get the player thats the actual cost, but when you look at it your way its worse, we gave up 2 firsts and a high second rounder effectively to move up 4 spots in the draft, I dont have a copy of the draft chart with me, but im reasonably sure thats a no lube sort of deal. especially given that with a rookie qb playing behind our oline, we are likely to have a top 10 selection next year at least. Suddenly those of us who suggested that trying to win games that we had no reason to win was stupid, look like friggin geniuses, but dont worry we dont expect an apology, after all first round picks arent that important lmao.

I dont understand all you people, you all preach about patience, yet freaked out when Mcrapp busted (rightfully so but it was obvious it was gonna happen yet a lot of you supported the move), still preached patience at me when I was one of the few who understood what a gongshow the defence switch was before it wasted a year for us and then some of you somehow thought that our "improvement " to get back to where we were in the first place was some sort of good thing. newsflash going from 11 to 31 back to 12 is not a win, yeah we got younger, we could have done the exact same thing without the epic fail, teams do it all the time. This was not a patient move made by a rebuilding team, if we were one year farther along, had a decent Oline and no major holes, I would be celebrating along with you guys, because THATS when you go for broke we won how many games last season?

what do you think ,that we did this because it was best for the team long term? this was done to save Shannys job, now we can go 6-10 and he wont get fired, he bought himself one more season, truth be told, we just added massive pressure onto a young QB who will be playing in one of the biggest markets for a fanbase that has sufered after being a great team then being terrible for 2 decades...., will you be patient when he doesnt play like Newton? will you not scream for his head when he plays like a rookie? will you resist the urge to scream WE PAID A RIDICULOUS PRICE FOR YOU, A PRICE THAT WAS HIGHER THAN ANYTHING PAID IN THE LAST 25 YEARS if he doesnt win the ROY or make the prowbowl and lead us to the playoffs next season?

we better be signing stud olinemen, because if this kid gets hurt (and yes running qbs do tend to get hurt a LOT *see Vick, Mike) lol ah well, I will be cheering for him, Ive just resigned myself to being a fan for a team that is impatient and stupid.

Don't vent on me because you find yourself in the unhappy minority.

Lots to respond to here. First of all - I was one of the ones bemoaning meaningless wins last season, and taking a beating here for suggesting they were counterproductive. Regardless, even as I was bemoaning those wins, even I recognize you can't ask your team to try to lose. So I'm not sure what your point is?

Secondly - yeah, we've all seen the draft chart. Yeah, we all get, this doesn't fall within the parameters of what a move from #6 to #2 should cost. That hasn't escaped anyone and doesn't require any insight But this isn't a typical scenario. The draft chart establishes a starting point. The market drives what actually occurs. And in this year's draft, you have the relatively unique situation where two franchise QBs of nearly equal value are available in the same draft (how often is the Heisman-winning QB not the top pick?). That situation makes the #2 pick much more valuable than in any draft in recent memory, and teams are going to battle to move up to it. That's just simple logic and I'm not sure why you can't grasp that.

Thirdly - patience is relative. We didn't trade for Drew Brees, or Peyton Manning - we did what we had to do to be in position to draft one of the most talented rookies in years at QB. That's being impatient? Are you ****ing kidding me? We aren't going to draft a rookie with the expectation of going to the SB next season. We're going to draft him to nail down that position for a decade.

As for the rest, as soon as someone resorts to all caps and telling others how they will react if we aren't Super Bowl bound immediately, I stop listening. I've been a fan longer than you have, and I'll likely outlast you on that front too.

For someone who preaches patience, I have to ask - where's yours?

 

[stevenaa]

Melodramatic much? He doesn't need to have a Newton type season next year or be ROY. If you don't believe his potential is what most football professionals are projecting, I can understand having reservations. Otherwise, every other argument you make against this is bunk. You can't build a good team with the intention of getting a franchise QB at some pre-determined milestone. This is the most important position on the team and you don't pass on a guy who might be a true franchise QB. They are not a dime a dozen, and they aren't available on your schedule. To pass up on one is lunacy. The price paid will be inconsequential if he pans out. If he pans out, the play of everyone around him will be elevated. We would have won a bunch more games last year with anything approacing competent QB'ing.

 

[redskins26]

Looks like the rams will be drafting in the 26 -30 spot the next 3 years

 

[redskins26]

They were saying earlier in the year it would take four first rounders to move Into the top spot so we did ok in that department

 

[Miles Monroe]

Pete - thoroughly enjoying your reaction
I was lucky last night - happened to be on Twitter at the moment this hit the internet and got it up here almost immediately. Waiting for folks to get the word and show up here (so I could have some company discussing/celebrating) was excruciating.

No doubt it was excruciating brother. Had it not been for a head cold sending me to bed early, and Saturdays being a zoo at the shop, I would have known sooner. The reaction would have been exactly the same, happy as a puppy with two peckers.

We won't know if this was a good or bad move for at least three years, so there's no sense in pissin and moaning about it now. What's done is done, and it's far more fun to enjoy being the "off season champs" with a move that has very likely set us up for the next decade plus some at the most important position.

Like that cat once sang.... Don't wory, be happy...

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

Don't vent on me because you find yourself in the unhappy minority.

Lots to respond to here. First of all - I was one of the ones bemoaning meaningless wins last season, and taking a beating here for suggesting they were counterproductive. Regardless, even as I was bemoaning those wins, even I recognize you can't ask your team to try to lose. So I'm not sure what your point is?

Secondly - yeah, we've all seen the draft chart. Yeah, we all get, this doesn't fall within the parameters of what a move from #6 to #2 should cost. That hasn't escaped anyone and doesn't require any insight But this isn't a typical scenario. The draft chart establishes a starting point. The market drives what actually occurs. And in this year's draft, you have the relatively unique situation where two franchise QBs of nearly equal value are available in the same draft (how often is the Heisman-winning QB not the top pick?). That situation makes the #2 pick much more valuable than in any draft in recent memory, and teams are going to battle to move up to it. That's just simple logic and I'm not sure why you can't grasp that.

Thirdly - patience is relative. We didn't trade for Drew Brees, or Peyton Manning - we did what we had to do to be in position to draft one of the most talented rookies in years at QB. That's being impatient? Are you ****ing kidding me? We aren't going to draft a rookie with the expectation of going to the SB next season. We're going to draft him to nail down that position for a decade.

As for the rest, as soon as someone resorts to all caps and telling others how they will react if we aren't Super Bowl bound immediately, I stop listening. I've been a fan longer than you have, and I'll likely outlast you on that front too.

For someone who preaches patience, I have to ask - where's yours?

Not entirely venting on you Boone, you are just the guy who seems happiest about this, lol.

I should have named people after each point, you are actually one of the people who agreed that winning at a certain point was hurting not helping our chance to develop.

the whole " there are two franchise qbs" argument is bunk, I believe Lanky showed that its extremely rare for the top 2 qbs drafted in any draft to both pan out let alone become Probowlers. yeah the market was inflated, thats a major reason why this was such a terrible deal, you dont pay what people want, you pay what you can afford. we arent exactly deep and filled with talent, I don't know what part of that relatively simple logic you dont grasp is. We overpaid, not just a small amount but a massive amount. the move is desperation personified, last year was how you rebuild, you draft bpa but you trade down if bpa doesnt fit and stockpile picks to fill needs with the remaining bpa. someone else said something brilliant it would be great if we now traded the second for a boatload of picks.


I know we will be lucky to win 8 games next year, but you and I both know, after the most recent run we have had, that the pressure on this kid is going to be massive. If you spend 3 firsts on a player and a second, you better be getting a guy who is not just THE man but a difference maker who takes you to the playoffs. Nailing down the position for a decade is worthless of we dont put some weapons around this kid and protect him. David Carr was a cant miss prospect, Alex Smith was a cant miss prospect. I am not saying we need an immediate superbowl, I am saying we need playoffs, and a rookie of the year performance or this kid is gonna get crucified, the second pick is already under pressure, now its gonna be even more massive.

you are older than me, you will probbaly die before me, just sayin.

as for patience, when we were on the right track (FINALLY) I was willing to give Shanny some Leeway, but this is too reminiscent of giving up a second for Mcrapp and making a pile of win now moves rather than rebuilding and taking our lumps. now we get to see not only if Shanny can actually win with his own groceries, but if he can actually think outside the box and get us some players who can actually play.

 

[Fear The Spear]

Maybe these guys would not be so concerned about the cost, if the timing of the trade had not come out around the time of the news of NFL bounties against QB's ??

 

[Goaldeje]

you are older than me, you will probbaly die before me, just sayin.

<best Seth Meyers/Amy Poehler voice>

Really? Really?

Come on Ryman, don't do that ****, you're better than that.

 

[Goaldeje]

I keep hearing that our OLine was dreadful last year, which simply isn't true. Let's keep in mind that we had a patchwork OLine much of the season, due to a plethora of injuries and the infamous suspension. And still, according to Football Outsiders, we were right in the middle of the pack with most statistics.

Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:
•Losses: 120% value
•0-4 Yards: 100% value
•5-10 Yards: 50% value
•11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, opponent, and the difference in rushing average between shotgun compared to standard formations. Finally, we normalize the numbers so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry.

In adjusted Line Yards, the Skins ranked 10th in the league for RBs, ahead of MoJo (Jax), AP (Min), Lynch (Sea) and a host of other more recognizable RBs.

For pass blocking, we ranked 15th in the league, with 40 sacks, with an adjusted sack rate of 6.4%, again, right in the middle of the rest of the league.

Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR)/Sack Rate: Sack Rate represents sacks divided by pass plays, which include passes, sacks, and aborted snaps. It is a better measure of pass blocking than total sacks because it takes into account how often an offense passes the ball. Adjusted Sack Rate adds adjustments for opponent quality, as well as down and distance (sacks are more common on third down, especially third-and-long).

I am going to try not to remind you of how many time Wreck held onto the ball far too long last season resulting in a sack. 40 sacks is a higher number than anyone else in the top 16 by a fairly large margin (Cleveland is #16 with 39 sacks, most of the rest in the top 16 are under 32). When you adjust the sack numbers as FO does, accounting for number of passing snaps, we rate a little better, mainly because we passed the ball so much. An offensive line asked to pass block more often will naturally give up more sacks than an OLine asked to run block more often.

In my opinion, our Line played better than could reasonably be expected last year, given the injuries, suspension and QB play. With (presumably) RG3 under center, and his escapability, and a piece or two to replace some players on the line, we should see a slight uptick, perhaps finishing in the 10-13 range, given we don't get decimated by injuries again.

FO also charts how well we ran the ball directionally. If you look at those stats (on the same page I linked earlier, just scroll down), you will find we did surprisingly poorly running the ball to the left, ranking 18th and 25th, respectively, running left end and left tackle. Thinking back, I do remember an inordinate amount of stretch running plays to the left that did not work well. This finding surprises me, because excluding the suspended game, TW has always struck me as a better run blocker than pass blocker, but that is not reflected in the stats.

Running straight up the middle or to either guard? Well, well, well. Bet you're not expecting this. #2 in the league. Running to the right nets us 14 and 6 respectively for right tackle and right end.

Obviously, there are a lot of variables to take into account, such as the quality of the DEs we face in the NFCE on each side, coaching proclivities for where to run in pressure situations, etc. But all of this taken together tells me our Oline was not as bad as some want to remember. With improved QB play (and let's face it, we should expect an improvement over Wreck from any rookie we throw in, from game 1 on), and no upgrades at all, I think we would probably see a bump. With upgrades, particularly at the Guard position, I think we could see a substantial increase, possibly into the top 10.

We will go after a couple of guys in FA, get some guys back from injuries and suspension, and we should be a fairly solid, maybe even fairly good, OLine.

 

[fansince62]

Ry...this is nothing like McCrap. I'm not sure where you are pulling this one from....unless you're simply taking an assumption and offering it as a conclusion. McNabb was an 11+ year vet...a short term fix. RGIII is a long-term commitment toward rebuilding the foundation.

There appear to be two themes in your post:

1) the opportunity cost is too high (i.e., foregone draft picks)

2) the risk is too high (i.e., the probability that RGIII will mature into expectations is low)

You haven't really produced any evidence to back the claims. For example, seizing on Lanky's analysis ignores the the complete formula: what, from rounds two to seven, have been the odds of developing a franchise QB? This sort of thinking has to include ALL QBs drafted in those rounds...not just the cherry picked ones (e.g., Brady).....if you are serious about playing the numbers game. To really make the argument work you need not only a solid set of historic data, but you need a value function everyone agrees to....and you ultimately have to reduce this to provable hypothesis testing. otherwise, like the rest of us, you're working off intuition, some summary numbers.....and emotion.

Similarly, you're working on the assumption that foregone draft picks would actually result in top value. Ironically, one assumption you are tacitly making is precisely what others hold vis RGIII: that the foregone number one picks would have produced top flight players who would contribute value to this Skins team. Seems to me you hold conflicting assumptions about the same draft positions! let's modify what seems to be idea to "RGIII, like any top round pick, will bring value to the team." Your position then becomes more like "sacrificing multiple number ones is giving up more value in the aggregate than drafting a single franchise QB." You need to make a case for that position.

my only qualm with RGIII is that I don't want want to hear **** about his politics - as COMCAST is already pushing if one reads between the lines of their newscast from yesterday. There's gonna be a lot more going on with RGIII than just football. For example, a guy with this kind of potential, intellectual ability and charisma...I'm not so sure HE IS GONNA WANT TO HANG AROUND THE NFL FOR 13-14 YEARS. If he achieves the levels of excellence we all hope for......his options are going to expand way beyond football and he is going to get caught up in a maelstrom of competing pressures that circle in areas far removed from football.

 

[stevenaa]

as for patience, when we were on the right track (FINALLY) I was willing to give Shanny some Leeway, but this is too reminiscent of giving up a second for Mcrapp and making a pile of win now moves rather than rebuilding and taking our lumps.

Now you're just being silly.

This is absolutely nothing like Mcrapp. That was desperation for lack of anything better. An aging past his prime player trade was reminiscent of the old way of doing things. This is nothing of the sort. If you think Shannahan believes this Rookie is going to "win now", you're insane. We all know that many lumps come with a rookie QB no matter the talent. This move is the epitome of building a team for the long term. It is builing by the draft, which we've screemed about forever. That his cost was high, doesn't negate that fact.

The odds are completely stacked against a Rookie turning around a team, you'd have to be a moron to think otherwise. Shannahan is no moron. This move likely sets this team of at QB for 10+ years. I know you know the QB history of this team. You have to know how valuable a commodity could can be.

If he is what he appears to be, the only possible negative from the trade cost will be a potential delay in filling a few key positions. Even then, we will likely be able to take care of it in FA. And so freaking what if development is delayed another year or two when the end result could truly be a winning franchise for a decade or so.

We all fully understand the risks and the setback we'll face if he busts, Ryman. We understand the chart values and the excess paid to move just just a few spots. For an athlete with his skills and talents, it's a worthy risk.

In the end, if he busts,my opinion will be the same. Given what we know, it was the right move. Hindsight will not change that.