The Jets are conducting a fire sale.
They are - I was going to ask here:
what does everyone think about 2 first rounders for Sauce Gardner, in the context of Jets <---> Colts given their respective positions?
Jets: fire sale, sure - but they are stocking up on draft picks. Do they have the competence to maximize the value of those picks? Will they make a big leap in the coming years?
Colts: believe they have a team and they want to add "that piece" to cement a trip to the SB, I think that's clear. They also may feel (according to some analysts) that they have enough contracts with their players to not need those first rounders. I don't think I buy that, personally. I just think that in league history it is extremely rare to see this type of trade work out. However, the real test of this trade is probably in the belief in the GM. Ballard has made some great moves. I can't bet against him fully but my gut says this won't age well. Very unsure though.
What is the bar for this to be a good move for the Colts? Do they need to make the Super Bowl? Do they need to not have hamstrung themselves next year, if they don't make the Super Bowl?
I think that is the bar, and I am guessing they do not make the SB this year, and that next year they do take a step back. That is my gut feeling, with the NFL it can always be wrong; it's also the easier bet to make anyway. "Not making the SB" and "regression from their current great record" would be the easy side to pick.