QBs in the 2012 Draft

[servumtuum]

Oh goody. It's gonna get like Black Friday at Wal-Mart and Target.

At least nobody else in the NFCE is in a position to want to grab one of these "newest young stud QB" hopefuls.

 

[Burgundy Burner]

Ok, after some digging, shoveling, scrolling, and finally finding a sos ranking - here it is...

1. Colts (.531)
2. Vikings (.567)
3. Rams (.589)

The Colts play the Jags in the season finale and it is very possible that they could win that game. Of course, I am not factoring in the typical Redskins luck with getting teased but no cigar thing.

On to the games on Saturday.

 

[Ax]

Fred Davis, Landry, 2012 1st/2nd plus 2013 1st ---> Luck in a Skins uni. Please?

We don't own the rights to Davis or Landry, do we?

 

[Sarge]

Now, we need to beat Minnesota. It's a must.

Indeed. I WILL be a Skins rootin' mo fo this weekend

 

[Goaldeje]

What has to happen for us to own the #4 spot at this point? If we beat the Vikings, what then?

 

[Ax]

We need a sure-fire starter. The counter argument is that there is no such thing as 'sure-fire' in the draft, but I think most years, if you own a top pick, that's not accurate anymore. Sure-fire exists. We just aren't ever in position to draft it.

"Sure-fire" does exist. In every round, of every draft, at every position. What there is NOT, is a sure fire slot position where these players are found. There is no sure fire pattern.

Every GM, of every team, tries every year, to pick the right players for their teams, in every round.

Nobody has done it yet.

Picking QB's has not gotten any better, IMO. It's just easier for them to succeed today. You can't hit them, much, and you can't touch a receiver. The rules of play help them look good sooner than in the past.

So, even though a lot of the more recently drafted QB's (last 3 years) have had decent starts to their careers, none of them is assured to be better than average at this point. Only time will tell.

 

[fansince62]

"Sure-fire" does exist. In every round, of every draft, at every position. What there is NOT, is a sure fire slot position where these players are found. There is no sure fire pattern.

Every GM, of every team, tries every year, to pick the right players for their teams, in every round.

Nobody has done it yet.

Picking QB's has not gotten any better, IMO. It's just easier for them to succeed today. You can't hit them, much, and you can't touch a receiver. The rules of play help them look good sooner than in the past.

So, even though a lot of the more recently drafted QB's (last 3 years) have had decent starts to their careers, none of them is assured to be better than average at this point. Only time will tell.

that's an incomplete argument.

1) any given team has resources.

2) resources have to be managed efficiently.

3) every team will have some maximization scheme - some framework that aligns resource use to goals and objectives.

4) in the abstract...a draft...the draft.....represents a decision process for allocating financial resources. decision-makers...the team....operate in this context. they don't just throw darts at a board. as you well know there is a prolonged...year long....process that includes multiple functions/tasks (scouting, cap management, roster evaluation, offensive and defensive scheme definition). at the end of the day.....objectives are bounded by probabilities and the maximization function (quantitative or qualitative)..leads to the draft board and draft day maneuvering. that board doesn't exist in a vacuum....all these considerations go into the rank ordering of names on that board.

It's not about the successes and losses on draft day....it's about the process and decision criteria that lead to those draft day selections. some teams (e.g., B-More) have a better system than others.

your logic is too limiting...the decision process includes many more variables than just some estimate about whether an individual will mature into an all-ProQB 5 years down the road. evry slot on that draft board is a chess piece...the logic for moving those pieces around and how they are valued includes more than what you are constraining the process to include. it is...afterall...a business. and you know when these decisions are made the braintrust is looking at ROI.

 

[Goaldeje]

Welp, lots of buzz on twitter that RGIII is staying in school. Lots of time left, can't panic, but that would really narrow the field to Tannehill and Luck, right? Would that cause Tannehill to rise quite a bit?

 

[Burgundy Burner]

Welp, lots of buzz on twitter that RGIII is staying in school. Lots of time left, can't panic, but that would really narrow the field to Tannehill and Luck, right? Would that cause Tannehill to rise quite a bit?

Yes it would. And we should not panic and do like last year - trade down and get some extra picks. We'll have even more leverage and could come away with fourteen to sixteen picks overall. The OL, WR, SS, CB, TE, and LB positions would be solidified.

Re-sign RG1, sign Flynn. Get the franchise QB in the 2013 draft. In a rebuild, you rebuild the right way.

Or...

You give whoever has the first pick in this draft four number one picks to get Luck.

Either scenario is fine with me.

 

[b&g_lady]

What has to happen for us to own the #4 spot at this point? If we beat the Vikings, what then?

Based on the current SoS which will change of course (but is still a relative indicator of how the tiebreakers might work,) the outcome would look something like this:

Order Team W L SoS
1 MIN 2 14 0.567
2 STL 2 14 0.589
3 IND 3 13 0.536
4 WAS 6 10 0.469
5 JAC 6 10 0.500
6 CAR 6 10 0.504
7 MIA 6 10 0.518
8 CLE 6 10 0.522
9 TB 6 10 0.545
10 BUF 7 9 0.522


Here's how the relevant games would need to shake out:
MIN loses out (at WAS, vs CHI)
STL loses out (at PIT, vs SF)
IND beats JAC (at JAC)
WAS beats MIN, loses at PHI
JAC wins at TEN, loses vs IND
CAR loses vs TB but wins at NO
MIA loses at NE, wins vs NYJ
CLE wins at BAL, vs PIT
TB wins at CAR, at ATL
BF wins vs DEN, at NE

 

[Lanky Livingston]

Yikes - Carolina winning @ NO doesn't seem very possible - the other scenario seems more likely (beating TB at home, then losing to NO on the road). Does that have the same effect?

Also, Cleveland winning @ BAL and vs. PIT seems highly unlikely. Seems highly unlikely that they'll win another game, to be honest. Same with Buffalo.

I think the #6, 7 or 8 pick is much more likely for the Skins, unfortunately.

 

[b&g_lady]

Yikes - Carolina winning @ NO doesn't seem very possible - the other scenario seems more likely (beating TB at home, then losing to NO on the road). Does that have the same effect?

Also, Cleveland winning @ BAL and vs. PIT seems highly unlikely. Seems highly unlikely that they'll win another game, to be honest. Same with Buffalo.

I think the #6, 7 or 8 pick is much more likely for the Skins, unfortunately.

I agree. What I outlined was a hopeful scenario, not what I would deem the most likely scenario. Making the changes you suggested above, would likely change the orders to be as follows:

Order Team W L SoS
1 MIN 2 14 0.567
2 STL 2 14 0.589
3 IND 3 13 0.536
4 CLE 4 12 0.522
5 BUF 5 11 0.522
6 TB 5 11 0.545
7 WAS 6 10 0.469
8 JAC 6 10 0.500
9 CAR 6 10 0.504
10 MIA 6 10 0.518

 

[Goaldeje]

#7, huh? El, are you reading this? If so, I think I might finally be coming around to your way of thinking. Let's give Flynn a look, as long as his contract demands are reasonable. Then hopefully trade down, recoup as many draft picks for next year as possible (for possible tradeup ammo), and fill as many holes this year as we can.

 

[Ax]

that's an incomplete argument...

Of course it is. But it cuts to the chase.

Draft position guarantees nothing. The 24th pick in the 1st round can have an identical chance of succeeding that any top 5 pick does. Too many factors to list have a part in that outcome. There is no set formula.

All teams still miss on players. Always have, always will.

Water is wet, the sky is blue, and women have secrets.

I, along with over half the teams in the league, hope and pray to land a franchise QB. THIS COMING YEAR!!!

The majority will fail to do so, just as they usually do. That's why there are so few true franchise QB's in the league. Less than 10, IMO.

EVERYBODY is trying to get what so few have actually accomplished doing. They don't grow on top 5 trees.

 

[Burgundy Burner]

Yikes - Carolina winning @ NO doesn't seem very possible - the other scenario seems more likely (beating TB at home, then losing to NO on the road). Does that have the same effect?

Also, Cleveland winning @ BAL and vs. PIT seems highly unlikely. Seems highly unlikely that they'll win another game, to be honest. Same with Buffalo.

I think the #6, 7 or 8 pick is much more likely for the Skins, unfortunately.

Carolina could win if the Saints rest their starters for the paloffs. The last two weeks of the season are always unpredictable. Not saying that moving back to the 4th position is likely, but 5th or 6th could still happen. Or eleventh. First things first though - under the best case scenario for the 'Skins at the moment, we need a win over Minnesota.

 

[Boone]

We start trading picks to move up, I'm going to be pissed. Although I like B&Gs analysis, I think her estimate of what it would take to move up is very conservative. The draft pick points system is a baseline. In a QB-strong draft, there will be a bidding war. I think it could take 3 #1's to get up to a top 3 slot. And we'd be crazy to do anything close to that (I'm not even sure Andrew Luck would be worth that kind of a deal).

 

[Henry]

Pssst. Hey Henry...

If you're a Redskins fan, it IS the offseason brother

ka-POW!!!

You might just have a point there.

Hey, anything is possible now. If my math is correct, this is how it looks now.

1. Minnesota 2-12 .567
2. St. Louis 2-12 .589
3. Indianapolis 2-13 .629

Two good trading partners right there. Tonight changed everything.

Now, we need to beat Minnesota. It's a must.

Waitwaitwaitwait ... so I get to root for the Redskins now?

Woohoo!!!

 

[Lanky Livingston]

Carolina could win if the Saints rest their starters for the paloffs. The last two weeks of the season are always unpredictable. Not saying that moving back to the 4th position is likely, but 5th or 6th could still happen. Or eleventh. First things first though - under the best case scenario for the 'Skins at the moment, we need a win over Minnesota.

I don't think it's likely the Saints rest any starters - they're playing for a first round bye at the moment, as they are tied with San Fran. It will likely come down to that last game, unless they play a late game, and San Fran locks up the bye in the early games.

 

[Henry]

We start trading picks to move up, I'm going to be pissed. Although I like B&Gs analysis, I think her estimate of what it would take to move up is very conservative. The draft pick points system is a baseline. In a QB-strong draft, there will be a bidding war. I think it could take 3 #1's to get up to a top 3 slot. And we'd be crazy to do anything close to that (I'm not even sure Andrew Luck would be worth that kind of a deal).

Boone, if the Redskins, who according to some is the team most desperate for a QB in the history of the forward pass, would be crazy to trade three #1s to get a top three spot, then everyone else would have to be crazy to pay that price as well, and therefore the price won't be that high.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

We start trading picks to move up, I'm going to be pissed. Although I like B&Gs analysis, I think her estimate of what it would take to move up is very conservative. The draft pick points system is a baseline. In a QB-strong draft, there will be a bidding war. I think it could take 3 #1's to get up to a top 3 slot. And we'd be crazy to do anything close to that (I'm not even sure Andrew Luck would be worth that kind of a deal).

This line of thinking boggles my mind - we need a franchise QB, yet there are limits on what we can do to get that franchise QB? I disagree - I think Luck is the type of prospect you do what you can to get, no matter what that involves. If St. Louis ends up in the #1 spot, they're going to get a huge bounty for that pick (if they decide to stay with Bradford).

The other option of course is that they take Luck and deal Sam - another very viable option for the Redskins.