QB or not QB

[tomwvr]

Yes.

Every time.

They won't offer that, of course.

But yeah.

Ive been running dozens of mock drafts and that is the most common trade ive seen offered in them - I had one mock where I was able to trade down 3 times and wound up at 9....

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

That said, Drake Maye is not at Jayden Daniels level. He just isn’t. Don’t believe me? Watch a game. Start will his final game vs powerhouse NC State.

I have not watched a single snap of either one yet. People seem to think his LSU vs. Florida as a "human highlight reel" for Daniels.

I'm looking for the best game to watch for Maye. I don't know which one I'm going to watch yet. I want to watch his "best" game.

What's interesting, though, is I get the feeling the NFL folks are higher on Maye than Daniels, and the fans/media/draftniks are higher on Daniels than Maye. I wonder why.

Bram was basically in the camp of Daniels is the obvious #2 pick, it's not close. Completely dismissive of the possibility Maye might even be an option.

My personal feeling is Daniels and McCarthy are getting the Willis treatment. Their agents are wheeling, dealing and spending a ton of money to get the media draftnik folks to go out of their way to praise both of them. Drum up interest.

Players don't "fly up draft boards." Well, not NFL draft boards. Maybe media draft boards. NFL draft boards are generally pretty set by the time the combine rolls around, and then there is juggling here and there because of measurables and then down the road, in-person visits.

When I hear a draftnik say "this player is rising quickly!" what that translates to me is "favors were exchanged and the media is now watching more or pushing an agenda." At least after the senior bowl. After that, the teams have seen virtually everything they are going to see. The things which remain are the measurables and medicals at the combine and in-person interviews. None of which the draftniks have access so, so that wouldn't be why a player is "flying up a draft board."

In case anybody is wondering, I'm not a fan of the draftnik community. That said, I believe Mel Kiper should be in the HOF as an NFL Contributor. Without Mel, there is no draft.

My least favorite is Thor Nystrom. Who is a know-it-all insufferable arrogant ass hat. Who's mostly wrong but has a good name. He was on Galdi's show after the Senior Bowl and was convinced Malik Willis was the next Lamar. Then when Willis slipped to the third round, he said "I have never been so convinced the NFL messed up since they passed on Lamar." (Side note, Lamar was a first round pick. Granted, last pick in the first round, but it's not like ever team passed on him multiple times.)

In the immortal words of Dr. Phil: How's that working out for you?

 

[Chris]

I have not watched a single snap of either one yet. People seem to think his LSU vs. Florida as a "human highlight reel" for Daniels.

I'm looking for the best game to watch for Maye. I don't know which one I'm going to watch yet. I want to watch his "best" game.

What's interesting, though, is I get the feeling the NFL folks are higher on Maye than Daniels, and the fans/media/draftniks are higher on Daniels than Maye. I wonder why.

Bram was basically in the camp of Daniels is the obvious #2 pick, it's not close. Completely dismissive of the possibility Maye might even be an option.

My personal feeling is Daniels and McCarthy are getting the Willis treatment. Their agents are wheeling, dealing and spending a ton of money to get the media draftnik folks to go out of their way to praise both of them. Drum up interest.

Players don't "fly up draft boards." Well, not NFL draft boards. Maybe media draft boards. NFL draft boards are generally pretty set by the time the combine rolls around, and then there is juggling here and there because of measurables and then down the road, in-person visits.

When I hear a draftnik say "this player is rising quickly!" what that translates to me is "favors were exchanged and the media is now watching more or pushing an agenda." At least after the senior bowl. After that, the teams have seen virtually everything they are going to see. The things which remain are the measurables and medicals at the combine and in-person interviews. None of which the draftniks have access so, so that wouldn't be why a player is "flying up a draft board."

In case anybody is wondering, I'm not a fan of the draftnik community. That said, I believe Mel Kiper should be in the HOF as an NFL Contributor. Without Mel, there is no draft.

My least favorite is Thor Nystrom. Who is a know-it-all insufferable arrogant ass hat. Who's mostly wrong but has a good name. He was on Galdi's show after the Senior Bowl and was convinced Malik Willis was the next Lamar. Then when Willis slipped to the third round, he said "I have never been so convinced the NFL messed up since they passed on Lamar." (Side note, Lamar was a first round pick. Granted, last pick in the first round, but it's not like ever team passed on him multiple times.)

In the immortal words of Dr. Phil: How's that working out for you?

I don’t like to watch a players best game for evaluation purposes. I like to watch their games against the best competition.

For Maye I used Clemson and NC State. For Daniels I used Florida State and Alabama, both of which were loaded with NFL-level talent.

(I didn’t use Florida for Daniels because Florida was a bad 5-7 team who’s only wins came vs Tennessee, McNeese, Charlotte, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina.)

 

[Bulldog]

I admit it, I am biased towards moving down and taking Penix.

I see his arm strength and mobility as well as his adversity overcoming the injuries to come back and lead an underwhelming Washington team overall to the national title game.

If you can get a lot of value out of the #2 pick in terms of other selections AND acquire a starting caliber prospect with upside at qb, that's good for the organization long-term.

 

[DixieFlatline]

So Drake Maye then?

 

[burgold]

Not sure taking Ron Rivera's advice on QB's in the way to go

 

[Bulldog]

So, Ron finally recognizes the value of having a quarterback that is a playmaker?

AND

the value in making that player a part of the organization through the draft OVER players at other positions

 

[DixieFlatline]

So this guy predicts we take Maye and Broncos trade for Howell. First I've heard of anyone suggesting trade, but I've been keeping my head down.

Kirk Cousins to Falcons? Sam Howell to Broncos? QB predictions for every NFL team

The quarterback carousel is spinning, with as many as 11 teams facing a decision on their 2024 starter. Where will everyone land?

theathletic.com

 

[Bulldog]

I would take Penix or Nix at #12 if I were Denver.

Of course Sean Payton seems determined to make his stay with the Broncos as chaotic and controversial as possible.

Not that Sam Howell is not worth decent compensation in a trade if that goes down, but why is Denver specifically interested in the player?

The Broncos also just cut their second team all pro safety, Justin Simmons, today.

More pain ahead for the Broncos.

This team seems headed down the elevator to 2-15 or 3-14 in 2024.

 

[burgold]

I'd hate to trade Sam Howell unless we got somethin g major. Howell flashed and at times at the beginning of the year before the team fell apart looked really good. The related thought I had was that if Russell Wilson really wanted to screw Denver (from what I understand Denver is still paying him minus salary he gets elsewhere) and Wilson would come here for vet minimum plus incentives... I wouldn't hate the idea of Russell to be the mentor transitional QB to our draft or even Howell himself since Russell is also a mobile, short QB with an arm.

 

[Bulldog]

'Free of the mess in Washington'?

I don't know who wrote the article blurb but the way Sean Payton and the Waltons are running this team, Denver may very well take over the title of 'dysfunctional' NFL organization in 2024

Remember when Payton came in and talked about the awful coaching and management under Hackett?

He doesn't look too smooth right now.

 

[tomwvr]

Denver will never be as bad as Carolina in terms of ownership

 

[Solitary Man]

Rivera would take Daniels. If I were Jayden’s agent I would try to scrub that from the internet.
#Jamin
#Forbes

 

[Boone]

On Howell, given no one knows what his ceiling is, we'd be foolish to trade him for what we would likely be offered. I don't believe that happens. And the 'mess in Washington' is pretty solid evidence whoever wrote that article is not paying very close attention.

I think the problem with Russell Wilson is that he's a diva and a bit of a flake. Pete Carroll someone managed to deal with it in Seattle but that was when Wilson was in his prime athletically. Playing well covers up a lot of warts. Now that (as Om described so well recently) his skillset and athleticism has declined, those 'other aspects' are more of a factor. Sean Payton can be a real prick - but if Wilson, even at his current talent level, had been able to execute Payton's offense the way he was asked to, he still could have had a resurgence in his career.

I honestly don't think he'd be a guy you wanted mentoring your young QB. And Howell has already shown he is going to be a pro's pro. He needs football coaching, not mentoring imho.

 

[burgold]

On Howell, given no one knows what his ceiling is, we'd be foolish to trade him for what we would likely be offered. I don't believe that happens. And the 'mess in Washington' is pretty solid evidence whoever wrote that article is not paying very close attention.

I was just thinking about this. Last week, a tree fell in my parent's backyard, one of the people we hired to remove it saw my father's car and said he wanted to buy it. He offered me $1500. It's a 2001 Toyota Echo. Now, based on the Blue Book that might be an okay price, but you have to think about two things: Is it a fair price and what is the replacement cost. Sure, we could trade Howell, but what is the replacement cost for a guy who could be a starting QB and at times flashed as a very good one. Redskins fans know better than most how hard it can be to find a serviceable QB. We can debate Howell's ceiling and future, but for the moment, he's a running car. He's not McNabb, Fitzgerald, Smith, John Beck, or a dozen other guys we've trotted out there that we knew could never be the guy (this statement isn't really fair to Smith), Howell is a car with a ton of mileage left in him and that we've barely road tested.

So, if you plan to trade Howell you don't trade him for a fair price. You trade him for the replacement cost of a starting QB or you don't trade him.

 

[Boone]

Great points. I think the only major caveat is if Peters and company assess him and see no potential for him to be even a solid backup. I think that’s unlikely given how he played for the first 10 games or so of the 2023 season (sacks aside) but I guess it’s possible they would assess him differently.

 

[Bulldog]

It's a big advantage to have a backup quarterback who can actually go in and play on contract at $1M or less under the cap.

Howell is worth a lot in that regard.

Recently, teams were paying Colt McCoy $6M a year as a backup to hold a clipboard.

Ditto with a guy like Garoppolo who gets injured within 10-12 plays of getting on the field seemingly every year.

If you draft a guy in Round 4 or 5 you then have to find out in camp whether he can actually get on the field in the NFL and not throw up al over himself.

No wonder other teams may be interested in him.

Smart teams, although I wouldn't consider Denver right now to be a smart team overall, are looking for value plays under the cap.

Keeping down the costs on backup quarterbacks, kickers, punters, etc. is one way to help massage the cap.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I don’t like to watch a players best game for evaluation purposes. I like to watch their games against the best competition.

For Maye I used Clemson and NC State. For Daniels I used Florida State and Alabama, both of which were loaded with NFL-level talent.

(I didn’t use Florida for Daniels because Florida was a bad 5-7 team who’s only wins came vs Tennessee, McNeese, Charlotte, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina.)

I like to see what they are capable of. Interestingly, that's the way the Shanahans approach it to. Keim reported this, they want to see the top-end capabilities, because they think (partly because of their arrogance) if they have it in them, they can get it out of them.

In the end, for a FO, they watch ALL of it. MANY times. From many people. None of us have time to do that.

From what I saw, my biggest takeaways
- Maye can make, and does make, NFL throws.
- Maye presses the ball down the field. You can tell the offense is structured around giving him the opportunity to get the ball down field on every play that isn't a screen or a run.
- In quick game, Maye is decisive and gets the ball out quickly. Accuracy is somewhat mixed. That needs to be explained.
- Daniels is excellent when he breaks the pocket.
- Daniels can accelerate to full speed so fast, if he's even, he's leavin'.
- Daniels, at times, can be decisive at the top of his drop. But it's much more rare. He has to see his receiver make the break and then throws it.
- Daniels lacks high-end arm talent. There were 5-6 throws in the UNC vs. UVA game Maye made which are not available to Daniels. He doesn't have the arm to attempt them, and if he does, it's going to be a disaster.
- McCarthy I was massively unimpressed with literally everything about his game against Alabama and I think all the smoke around him is coming from his agent and other places and is unwarranted and he looks like the next Jimmy Clausen. (Who, ironically, Mel loved, and he likes McCarthy.)

There was one play when I watched the UNC vs. UVA game which was really fascinating:

Maye dropped back, looked to the middle, moved his feet to avoid a little pressure, and then threw to his right. Middle of the field from the ~UNC 45 to just outside the numbers at the UNC 10. So, that's about 45 yards in the air. It was some type of an out. It was incomplete, but the ball hit the receiver in the hands, but the DB closed to knock it away.

I down-graded the play because the ball was maybe .25 seconds late, and maybe half a hard to the inside, if he gets it to the outside shoulder, maybe it's complete.

Here's the thing: that throw isn't available to Daniels. Or McCarthy. They try it, it's an INT and maybe a 90 yard pick 6. You have to have a cannon to attempt it. In the NFL, Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, Herbert could attempt that throw and probably complete it. Maybe a few others. Stafford certainly could have in the past, I'm not sure if he still could. A lot of good QBs could not. I don't think Burrow, Purdy, Tua, Dak, Hurts or Cousins could or should attempt it.

So, Maye saw it, attempted it, and ALMOST completed it. With some pressure. But it was a tick late and a tick inaccurate. Is that a positive grade or a negative grade?

My personal bias is I like QBs who can win from the pocket, escape to extend plays, and make plays with their feet when needed. That's mostly Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Burrow at the top of the list at the moment.

I think Maye is in that mold.

I don't think Daniels has Lamar's size or arm talent. Heck, I don't think Daniels has Field's size or arm talent.

And that's what concerns me with Daniels. I worry he's a Field's light. (literally) And that's not good enough.

 

[Bulldog]

Again, there are college quarterbacks solely on the basis of statistics - guys from BYU like Detmer and others that were Division I all-time passers that failed in the NFL because of size, durability, processing speed or arm issues.

That is one reason I have a cautionary note on Daniels relative to Williams and Maye, and quite frankly Penix as well of these draft picks.

Daniels was in the SEC granted, but he was also on the best overall offensive team with the best supporting cast to showcase his skills.

He was a guy that often finished a game with a 'clean' jersey and had the skill position receivers that inevitably won their matchups with college corners to provide Daniels with some easy scores and 'pinball' yardage stats.

What I am trying to imagine is what Caleb Williams or Drake Maye would do in those circumstances.

If you watch Michael Penix games you will see that he is a clear leader and playmaker and elevated the team around him quite a bit.

That is what you are looking for IMO.

To me the biggest busts I have seen are ones where the quarterback comes from a big time college program and has top of the chart stats, but then goes to the NFL where his team is one of 32 clubs instead of being a special team where the players even depth players are as good or better than those on any other team they play.

 

[Bulldog]

With the signing of Mariota, Sam Howell may be on the move.