Official Game Thread - Week 4 - Commanders @ Falcons

Yes VoR made a similar point, but I think the point of the author of that article is there is no "commitment" to the run.
If you commit, the defense has to adjust. It changes quite a bit. You can run on 2nd and 20 - especially when you have shown you can break long runs. The first drive, why is that understandable? Since we got to 2nd and 13? There is a really big picture too that always alarms me. DCs look at game stats across the full season, and to me, the pattern is very established here. If you don't tend to run (I mean like 1% run) in 2nd-and-13... you are just asking for an all out pass rush. That second's hesitation to check the RB really matters.

Not saying that every drive needs a run or something like that, but this is a pretty well established pattern. Basically, there seem to be (for me and some others, including that author I suppose) too many "situations" that Kliff deems "pass required" - defenses can generally ignore the run threat (except in certain formations where there is a high likelihood) and you will be OK going straight at the QB in terms of pass-rush.

Also, keep in mind - I fully believe Daniels is hurt in part because of this well-established tendency. The pass rush has zero hesitation (I started here with "almost no" but changed to "zero" - why would they hesitate?) in way too many situations, based on the film that is all too easy to understand.
I’m not sure I get your point about the first drive. 2nd and 13 is an obvious passing down, right? So even if you think he should run the ball (at least) 1% of the time, which is fair… I’d say 99% warrants an “understandable” descriptor.

Not going to argue with your point about him not running at least 1% of the time on 2nd and 13. I have no desire to go back the last 100 2nd and 13s his teams have faced to see if he’s run the ball once. :)

Bottom line, I’m not going to ding him for calling a pass play on the 2nd and 13 or the 2nd and 20 in the first half.
 
I’m not sure I get your point about the first drive. 2nd and 13 is an obvious passing down, right? So even if you think he should run the ball (at least) 1% of the time, which is fair… I’d say 99% warrants an “understandable” descriptor.

Not going to argue with your point about him not running at least 1% of the time on 2nd and 13. I have no desire to go back the last 100 2nd and 13s his teams have faced to see if he’s run the ball once. :)

Bottom line, I’m not going to ding him for calling a pass play on the 2nd and 13 or the 2nd and 20 in the first half.
(My "1% run" thing wasn't clear - I was defining what "not tending to run" was - so I am saying 1% run is bad on 2nd-and-13 to me)

Yeah, I am going to ding him - not really for this specific play as much as the fact that he seems to have an established tendency that he rarely shies from.
Because defenses, to me, have correctly keyed on the same general principle you seem to.

You are saying 2nd-and-13 is an obvious passing down, I would argue that is not true for many teams in the league. I could be wrong, but I imagine those are some of the more successful teams too. Now that we have a revamped offensive line, I expected better pass protection but part of that comes from breaking tendencies, from keeping defenses guessing. If you end up with strong tendencies in the modern NFL, in terms of run/pass, in terms of formation, you are giving yourself a tougher job than needed - and it's up to you to be able to put together a scheme that can dictate to THAT level - the defense knows you are going to pass, potentially (better prepared teams) can even tell other aspects based on formation (if you have such tells) - now you need to dictate to a higher level.

There are a lot of aspects to it. All I am saying is, I see Kliff as having way too many predictable tendencies.
 
(My "1% run" thing wasn't clear - I was defining what "not tending to run" was - so I am saying 1% run is bad on 2nd-and-13 to me)

Yeah, I am going to ding him - not really for this specific play as much as the fact that he seems to have an established tendency that he rarely shies from.
Because defenses, to me, have correctly keyed on the same general principle you seem to.

You are saying 2nd-and-13 is an obvious passing down, I would argue that is not true for many teams in the league. I could be wrong, but I imagine those are some of the more successful teams too. Now that we have a revamped offensive line, I expected better pass protection but part of that comes from breaking tendencies, from keeping defenses guessing. If you end up with strong tendencies in the modern NFL, in terms of run/pass, in terms of formation, you are giving yourself a tougher job than needed - and it's up to you to be able to put together a scheme that can dictate to THAT level - the defense knows you are going to pass, potentially (better prepared teams) can even tell other aspects based on formation (if you have such tells) - now you need to dictate to a higher level.

There are a lot of aspects to it. All I am saying is, I see Kliff as having way too many predictable tendencies.
The average running play in the NFL is ~4.4 yards, at least it was in the entire 2024 season.

The average yards per pass attempt for 2024 is 7 yards per attempt for the entirety of the 2024 season.

At 2nd and 13, that is a passing down almost 100% of the time for almost all teams. From time to time, somebody will try and sneak in a draw to get a quick few yards and just change things up. What's interesting is when that happens, fans typically will yell "give up play!"

You don't even need advanced statistics to tell you a pass play on 2nd and 13 gives you a much, much, much higher likelihood of getting a first down than a running play.

The exception to that coaching philosophy was Jay Gruden, who saw every single disadvantageous yards to go situation as an opportunity to run for 0 yards. That's why he's a guest on the Kevin Sheehan Show and Standig Room Only podcast and not actually coaching football any more. Well, it's one of a lot of reasons, but it's the reason which is pertinent to this discussion. Edit to add Conn I might have turned over a new leaf with PFF but I will never turn down an opportunity to take a swipe at Jay. Some things will never change. :p
 
To clarify, “obvious passing down” doesn’t mean you pass 100% of the time. But I’d be willing to bet that passing on 2nd and 13 is easily the norm for any team in the modern era. I think it’s also worth pointing out that calling a pass play, when you have quality scramblers in Mariota and Daniels, means more options vs calling a run play.

It is interesting though when you factor in incompletion percentage… your odds of not gaining any yards are surely a fair bit higher on a pass play, as well as the idea that you might gain more yards than average running in an obvious passing situation. Again though, I can’t fault calling a pass play on 2nd and long.

Overall though, I don’t (necessarily) disagree with the idea that Kliff has tendencies, and maybe more importantly, I find it a bit concerning that he sometimes gets away from the ground game and that DQ talked to him last year about the importance of sticking with it even if it’s not having a great deal of success. Chewing up clock, resting your defense, keeping the opposing offense on the bench, allowing your oline to dictate, keeping defenses honest, tiring defenses out, opening up play action… I mean, there are just so many reasons to run the ball.

The Green Bay game was kind of baffling - the run game was working, Daniels was getting hit way too often, and frankly, his accuracy was just plain off. And yet, we didn’t even try to lean on the ground game.

Versus Atlanta though, chances to run the ball were reduced by penalties, the int, lack of possessions, etc. So it’s hard for me to fault Kliff too much when we scored as much as we did, especially considering the number of starters that were unavailable.
 
The Green Bay game was kind of baffling - the run game was working, Daniels was getting hit way too often, and frankly, his accuracy was just plain off. And yet, we didn’t even try to lean on the ground game.
By all accounts, Kliff had a really bad day against Green Bay.

That happens to every coach at some point.
 
To clarify, “obvious passing down” doesn’t mean you pass 100% of the time. But I’d be willing to bet that passing on 2nd and 13 is easily the norm for any team in the modern era. I think it’s also worth pointing out that calling a pass play, when you have quality scramblers in Mariota and Daniels, means more options vs calling a run play.

It is interesting though when you factor in incompletion percentage… your odds of not gaining any yards are surely a fair bit higher on a pass play, as well as the idea that you might gain more yards than average running in an obvious passing situation. Again though, I can’t fault calling a pass play on 2nd and long.

Overall though, I don’t (necessarily) disagree with the idea that Kliff has tendencies, and maybe more importantly, I find it a bit concerning that he sometimes gets away from the ground game and that DQ talked to him last year about the importance of sticking with it even if it’s not having a great deal of success. Chewing up clock, resting your defense, keeping the opposing offense on the bench, allowing your oline to dictate, keeping defenses honest, tiring defenses out, opening up play action… I mean, there are just so many reasons to run the ball.

The Green Bay game was kind of baffling - the run game was working, Daniels was getting hit way too often, and frankly, his accuracy was just plain off. And yet, we didn’t even try to lean on the ground game.

Versus Atlanta though, chances to run the ball were reduced by penalties, the int, lack of possessions, etc. So it’s hard for me to fault Kliff too much when we scored as much as we did, especially considering the number of starters that were unavailable.
Agree with just about everything you wrote here, great post.

I asked some AI engine, and here is part of what it said (to clarify though, it said 2nd and long as 9-yards and further):
1759516481384.png


70-75% - that is where my problem lies. I think Kliff has dangerously well established tendencies; and I don't think he passes "70-75%" of the time on 2nd and long; if that were the case, I would be fine. I honestly think it's more like 90% at minimum and it may be higher. The Atlanta game was lost by the defense for sure, but I don't see this season ending with postseason success with the kind of playcalling I have seen on offense. It's not a pure execution problem, from what I can see.
 
So, to summarize: Quinn is another Rivera, Kingsbury is predictable, and Whitt sucks. That about right? 🤣
 
So, to summarize: Quinn is another Rivera, Kingsbury is predictable, and Whitt sucks. That about right? 🤣
And JD5 is Heinicke, just with better luck.

It's a total fluke this team got to the NFC Championship Game last year.
 
This is going to be a tough game because of all the injuries
 

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