Official Game Thread - Playoffs Week 2 - Commanders @ Lions

He had a really nice punt return against Tampa Bay. Made four or five guys miss
 
So is Jon Allen making any sort of impact during his return, or is he more or less damaged goods? Saw he played 44 snaps last week, which is basically what he played before his injury.

BTW: Looks like Forbes started for the Rams last week and played 95% of the snaps.
 
Last edited:
One beef I have with the massive swing towards deferring... the same master minds of football that defer religiously (as if they are polished enough on offense to drain out the clock masterfully before scoring) also didn't know to go for it on 4th downs until recently. Punted on the 37 out of the back of the endzone time and time again. Afraid of going for it on 4th. Always running on 1st down because... why again. It boggles my mind how the NFL with just 16 games sorely lacked any significant statistical analysis at all until recently. Fox and their under pressure stat from 2 decades ago... quickly vanished soon there after. /rant

On paper Detroits defense is far less stout than Tampa. I will parlay Daniels 300+100 once again.
 
One thing I think needs to be remembered is that a 2 yard run on first down is likely considered a 'positive' play when 4th down is almost always on the menu. 2.5 yards at 4 downs results in 10 yards and a first down. Now obviously thats a little simplistic, but it's also the mentality. 2 - 3 yards runs on first down are ugly and annoying, but they're not dramatic fails like in years past with the current offensive mindset.

That said, I think running the ball will be more available Saturday night than it has over the last handful of games. Detroit's defense has been struggling, specifically in the run game, and even more so in stopping mobile QBs. Jayden is going to be in their head, so the interior of the line likely will have some meat on the bone because they're likely going to have to gameplan specifically for Jayden. Does that mean we'll run all over them? No not so much, but I think more will be there. I also like the quick game being an extension of the run game, not just because of the run game aspet, but it gets the ball out quick.
 
grhqofb5 said:
BTW: Looks like Forbes started for the Rams last week and played 95% of the snaps.
Click to expand...
Depends on what you define as last week.
Yes he played most of the game that didn't really matter to either team, a glorified pre season game and supposedly he looked decent.
This week in their playoff game he was inactive so I wouldn't rush to say he's turned a corner in L.A. quite yet.
 
I just hope we don't get blown out, and that JD has a solid game. If we lose in a shootout, I'll be ok with that.
We don't have a single first rounder from the previous 5 years on the roster. Three were complete busts who got cut, and the other 3 went for mid round picks. It's going to take more than a year to rebuild from such an astonishing level of incompetence.
 
SilentThreat said:
One thing I think needs to be remembered is that a 2 yard run on first down is likely considered a 'positive' play when 4th down is almost always on the menu. 2.5 yards at 4 downs results in 10 yards and a first down. Now obviously thats a little simplistic, but it's also the mentality. 2 - 3 yards runs on first down are ugly and annoying, but they're not dramatic fails like in years past with the current offensive mindset.

That said, I think running the ball will be more available Saturday night than it has over the last handful of games. Detroit's defense has been struggling, specifically in the run game, and even more so in stopping mobile QBs. Jayden is going to be in their head, so the interior of the line likely will have some meat on the bone because they're likely going to have to gameplan specifically for Jayden. Does that mean we'll run all over them? No not so much, but I think more will be there. I also like the quick game being an extension of the run game, not just because of the run game aspet, but it gets the ball out quick.
Click to expand...
I’d argue 0-2 yards is a failure of a down. You really need 10 yards in 3 downs most of the field

3-5 yards on first down is a passing grade.

The reason you can live with incomplete passes on first down is typically the yards per attempt for a good QB is > 6.5. And completion percentage is greater than 60%. So you’re in 2nd and really short the majority of the time, statistically.

If you can run for a 3.5 average on first down, that will do.

The key is to limit second and 10. And recognize when the run game isn’t working and mix it up to take advantage of the greater passing yards per attempt.

But you don’t want to abandon the run too soon.

It’s a tight rope.
 
I've heard that 3.5 yards every down with no turnovers can win a game. 😉
 
grhqofb5 said:
So is Jon Allen making any sort of impact during his return, or is he more or less damaged goods? Saw he played 44 snaps last week, which is basically what he played before his injury.

BTW: Looks like Forbes started for the Rams last week and played 95% of the snaps.
Click to expand...
What did you mean by "last week" - did you mean the wild card game or the previous week? "Last week" to me means the wild card game.
He was apparently inactive:

 
Dan Campbell vs Dan Quinn

DQ has a higher 4th down completion pct (87%), but Dan Campbell has two more 4th down conversions (22 vs 20)

Hide yo punters!!!

1737095781040.gif
 
Last edited:
Yeah. This game is going to probably come down to which team is more successful on 4th down.

Well, that is if we don't just get straight up blown out. Their running game is no joke. Their 2 RBs had about 200 more rushing yards than Barkley and Montgomery missed several weeks but he's back.
 
Voice_of_Reason said:
I’d argue 0-2 yards is a failure of a down. You really need 10 yards in 3 downs most of the field

3-5 yards on first down is a passing grade.

The reason you can live with incomplete passes on first down is typically the yards per attempt for a good QB is > 6.5. And completion percentage is greater than 60%. So you’re in 2nd and really short the majority of the time, statistically.

If you can run for a 3.5 average on first down, that will do.

The key is to limit second and 10. And recognize when the run game isn’t working and mix it up to take advantage of the greater passing yards per attempt.

But you don’t want to abandon the run too soon.

It’s a tight rope.
Click to expand...


Traditionally you're correct, but exactly what you said... 3 downs.

They've changed the scope of thinking to 4 downs. 2 yards on first down essentially gives them a 1st and 8 with 3 cracks at it. It's a completely different ananlytical approach where 4th down is no longer a locked in punting situation.
 
SilentThreat said:
Traditionally you're correct, but exactly what you said... 3 downs.

They've changed the scope of thinking to 4 downs. 2 yards on first down essentially gives them a 1st and 8 with 3 cracks at it. It's a completely different ananlytical approach where 4th down is no longer a locked in punting situation.
Click to expand...
That's pretty interesting. I think you're right as long as the mentality has changed. For the Eagles, I doubt there are many places on the field where they won't go for Fourth and one because they believe that the tush push is 99% effective. For us, that two-yarder is probably from the fouty yard line in. Still, we need to do better than two yards a carry.
 
Voice_of_Reason said:
I’d argue 0-2 yards is a failure of a down. You really need 10 yards in 3 downs most of the field

3-5 yards on first down is a passing grade.

The reason you can live with incomplete passes on first down is typically the yards per attempt for a good QB is > 6.5. And completion percentage is greater than 60%. So you’re in 2nd and really short the majority of the time, statistically.

If you can run for a 3.5 average on first down, that will do.

The key is to limit second and 10. And recognize when the run game isn’t working and mix it up to take advantage of the greater passing yards per attempt.

But you don’t want to abandon the run too soon.

It’s a tight rope.
Click to expand...
Generally agree, but… if you figure most opponents will score (and thus kickoff) roughly 4-6 times, plus the beginning of half kickoff, that’s 5-7 drives that start at the 30ish. Then add in missed longish FGs and any turnover on downs in the 30-50 range.
A 1st down that’s at our 45+ would put 4th and short to medium past the 50. So we could be on track to go for it on 4th with a 2 yard run anywhere between our 45 and (essentially) the opponents 3 yard line.

I guess I’m mostly just distinguishing between a “majority of the field” and a “ majority of the time”, though I think the argument is there to say just over half of the field is available for still going for it on 4th, if you look at where that ‘2 yard run on 1st down’ starts from.

What’s really going through my mind typing the above out though is… we really need to improve our run game, lol.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 1, Members: 0, Guests: 1)

Help Users

You haven't joined any rooms.

    You haven't joined any rooms.
    Top