Is Adam Peter's Strategy Off-Course?

[Faithful Fan]

It’s looking more like AP made the wrong choice with that 2nd overall pick last year (and for exactly the reasons everybody thought at the time).

Last season I was thinking “thank goodness I was wrong,” now I’m back to hoping I was.

 

[method man]

I don’t really agree. When it comes to the cream of the crop, sure. Elite players rarely hit FA without red flags attached, and they usually get overpaid. But there are better and/or younger players than Wise + Goldman etc. on the market who will get a bit overpaid, but structured well can contribute as solid starters. Plenty of good (not great) players ages 26-28 who don’t get paid totally absurd money, basically Luvu types. We aren’t too good or too deep to justify ignoring potential signings like that, we should have been raising the talent floor of our roster around our rookie QB while he’s cheap, even if it cost us some money. Then keep building the foundation in the background with draft picks until the roster is backfilled enough that it’s MOSTLY draft picks, which would take years and patience. But we weren’t structurally sound enough to rely on JUST draft picks and 1-year vets when the talent cupboard is as empty as it was. I’m not even talking about going all-in, dumb “dream team” type signings. I’m talking about just adding real talent to the roster.

We were all pumped for the vast amount of cap space we had going into the last two offseasons, and the talent that could allow us to add, if we were willing to strategically overpay the right guys, with caution. Most anyone saying they were thrilled with the FA crops we came away with after having $60M+ to spend is lying and retroactively changing their opinions. Outside of a very very few extremely conservative penny pinchers in the fanbase, almost everyone thought we would come out of those offseasons with a few impact players to contribute to our build, not journeyman and near-retirement guys.

Luvu and Kinlaw are our only real swings at potential “red chip” players with multi-year deals on the open market. Not blue chip, but a level below. Solid starters with untapped upside in the right scheme. Really just Luvu if we’re being honest, Kinlaw was seen as damaged goods and has arguably exceeded expectations on a fair market contract that people really didn’t think he deserved. So…two offseasons…tons of money…Luvu. Maybe Biadaz and Armstrong if we’re being generous, they exceeded expectations as well and didn’t break the bank. Yellow chip, let’s call them. More players like them would have improved us a lot and not destroyed the health of our constitution.

With how Daniels played last year and our deep cap space war chest, that’s embarrassing imo and in retrospect a lot of us just talked ourselves into believing it was smart despite our disappointment in the moment, because we like and want to believe in AP. I still like and want to believe in him, but my eyes are open.

I think young players at non premium positions regularly come free due to the teams they are coming from having to manage the cap. At safety, as one example, Xavier McKinney got a bag in 2024 and was a first team All Pro. If the young promising players at premium positions are not coming free, let's go get the young guys at non premium positions who can be or are blue chip or red chip guys.

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

YES, strategy was off course but it was derailed for so many different reasons.
I personally think, at this point in the year, and looking at all of the play and the data - maybe the threesome of St Juste, Sainristil, and Noah I were actually better than Lattimore, Sainristil, and Jones.

Whether that's right or wrong, I don't know - but with the injuries, I wonder if we will see Noah I active or not. My issue is that DQ needs to know what is going on.

He needs to not be looking at Ws and Ls and saying "yay we won" - he needs to SELF CRITIQUE.

I honestly think that solid self-critique over the whole org was missing. I think Donatell needs to go. I think others should possibly also go. I think it's borderline criminal that an HC couldn't figure that out a long time ago. This is based on my observation on things at this point in the second season - and sure, it's still just a guess because my window is so narrow. The HC should absolutely KNOW. I don't believe him anymore, and from my eyes -the mountains of PI that seem VERY technique driven? Donatell is a problem that should have been identified LAST YEAR.

 

[skinzplay]

I think AP is just fine. Dude inherited a roster devoid of talent and depth at every position. The talent level was so bad that a greedy wideout tried to hold the team hostage, demanding a crazy contract simply because he was the best of a low-talent roster. I trust AP to keep building and getting us talent. There will be misses (every GM has them), but what RR left him to work with was downright awful.

 

[CuredFromBatteredFanSyndrome]

I don’t feel like you get the clout that AP came with from simply being a good dude. I trust that he will find his way and learn from his missteps. That’s the one angle a lot of folks don’t take into account. He’s a first time GM, that was handed a piss-poor roster. There will be some growing pains.

 

[DogofWar1]

Said Other because Yes it's very much off course because of bad luck in year 2, and also a fair bit of bad coaching, not really because of a ton of win now moves.

The only "win now" move that they really did was Lattimore. Tunsil is good for at least a few more years, he's not a win now move, he's a foundational piece through at least 2027ish. Deebo was had for a 5th, and honestly his production has been very much worth that. He isn't gonna hit his potential bc of all the other stuff going on, he finds himself being the only major weapon far too often, but some of his early game success showed how much potential there still is there.

Also, jury is still out but some of the picks are starting to look problematic, specifically Sinnott. He has not done enough, and it's either because he's bad or because the coaches are bad, and neither explanation is good. Ertz might be gone after this year, and even if not his age is just gonna be more and more of a problem, so if Sinnott doesn't develop, you don't really have a pass-catching TE.

I also am starting to strongly question the logic of Conerly. This isn't a knock on Conerly himself though...AHEM...that could be done, but like, he's had a murderer's row of pass rushers across from him, combined with a WR corps that basically all died, meaning, it's all pass blocking for 8 years and then trying to run block into 8 man boxes. BUT, you had Coleman, who, can you REALLY say would be a significant downgrade at RT? And now Coleman is basically wandering in the desert bc he didn't take to guard. So it starts to look like Conerly was a "luxury" pick of sorts, that could perhaps have been better used on a DE like Ezeiraku.

Now sure, the logic made sense to help protect Jayden, at the time, but that logic really required 1) Coleman to slide to LG and work out, and more importantly, 2), Conerly to be good. Neither of those are happening. Hindsight is 20/20 and there are other factors involved (I still think like 80% of our offensive woes are downstream of the WR corps just all dying), but I'm starting to think they got too clever by half when, sometimes conventional wisdom of "draft a pass rusher, you NEED one" is the right one.

Overall, Adam's first two classes are on a bit of a razor's edge here. But the conventional wisdom in '24 was it was a great tackle and WR class, and we waited all the way until Coleman and Luke. How different is this team if we draft an OT who sorta locked down RT instead of Sinnott, and then grabbed Ezeiraku instead of Conerly? Sure, we are still in trouble with WRs, and unless we got up for Ladd, there's actually not really anyone worth grabbing between where we drafted Newton to where we drafted Luke (with the exception of Jalen McMillan who went in the 3rd), so WR corps is probably still screwed a bit, but more depth at DE would help a ton right now.

Sometimes the conventional wisdom is right.

 

[method man]

Here's a scary thought about AP's talent evaluation skills. JJ was the #2 QB on his board. Imagine if the Bears had taken Jayden and AP had taken JJ ahead of Maye

 

[method man]

Said Other because Yes it's very much off course because of bad luck in year 2, and also a fair bit of bad coaching, not really because of a ton of win now moves.

The only "win now" move that they really did was Lattimore. Tunsil is good for at least a few more years, he's not a win now move, he's a foundational piece through at least 2027ish. Deebo was had for a 5th, and honestly his production has been very much worth that. He isn't gonna hit his potential bc of all the other stuff going on, he finds himself being the only major weapon far too often, but some of his early game success showed how much potential there still is there.

Also, jury is still out but some of the picks are starting to look problematic, specifically Sinnott. He has not done enough, and it's either because he's bad or because the coaches are bad, and neither explanation is good. Ertz might be gone after this year, and even if not his age is just gonna be more and more of a problem, so if Sinnott doesn't develop, you don't really have a pass-catching TE.

I also am starting to strongly question the logic of Conerly. This isn't a knock on Conerly himself though...AHEM...that could be done, but like, he's had a murderer's row of pass rushers across from him, combined with a WR corps that basically all died, meaning, it's all pass blocking for 8 years and then trying to run block into 8 man boxes. BUT, you had Coleman, who, can you REALLY say would be a significant downgrade at RT? And now Coleman is basically wandering in the desert bc he didn't take to guard. So it starts to look like Conerly was a "luxury" pick of sorts, that could perhaps have been better used on a DE like Ezeiraku.

Now sure, the logic made sense to help protect Jayden, at the time, but that logic really required 1) Coleman to slide to LG and work out, and more importantly, 2), Conerly to be good. Neither of those are happening. Hindsight is 20/20 and there are other factors involved (I still think like 80% of our offensive woes are downstream of the WR corps just all dying), but I'm starting to think they got too clever by half when, sometimes conventional wisdom of "draft a pass rusher, you NEED one" is the right one.

Overall, Adam's first two classes are on a bit of a razor's edge here. But the conventional wisdom in '24 was it was a great tackle and WR class, and we waited all the way until Coleman and Luke. How different is this team if we draft an OT who sorta locked down RT instead of Sinnott, and then grabbed Ezeiraku instead of Conerly? Sure, we are still in trouble with WRs, and unless we got up for Ladd, there's actually not really anyone worth grabbing between where we drafted Newton to where we drafted Luke (with the exception of Jalen McMillan who went in the 3rd), so WR corps is probably still screwed a bit, but more depth at DE would help a ton right now.

Sometimes the conventional wisdom is right.

Yep. I posted in the draft thread about how blindly following the consensus big board would've landed us Edgerrin Cooper and Cooper DeJean had we stayed with our original 2 2nds. There is real wisdom in the crowds.

When GMs deviate from consensus, those picks usually disappoint. In this past draft, Jaylin Lane was the #169 prospect on the consensus big board. Elic Ayomanor was #73 and Tory Horton was #103. We would've been better off with either guy vs Lane. As we saw yesterday, Horton is a guy who can beat man coverage when given chances and a dynamite punt returner to boot.

 

[HTTR]

Yep. I posted in the draft thread about how blindly following the consensus big board would've landed us Edgerrin Cooper and Cooper DeJean had we stayed with our original 2 2nds. There is real wisdom in the crowds.

When GMs deviate from consensus, those picks usually disappoint. In this past draft, Jaylin Lane was the #169 prospect on the consensus big board. Elic Ayomanor was #73 and Tory Horton was #103. We would've been better off with either guy vs Lane. As we saw yesterday, Horton is a guy who can beat man coverage when given chances and a dynamite punt returner to boot.

you’re not wrong, but I’m pretty confident even Jaylen lane could have also easily beaten our man-to-man coverage the other night
*sigh*

And wasn’t Johnny Newton rated as a late first rounder? Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought he was higher on the board than edgerrin Cooper.

 

[BayouBrave86]

Woof, I’m sure it’s been shared a ton already but we only have 5 draft picks left over from the Rivera regime? That is absolutely pathetic

 

[HTTR]

Said Other because Yes it's very much off course because of bad luck in year 2, and also a fair bit of bad coaching, not really because of a ton of win now moves.

The only "win now" move that they really did was Lattimore. Tunsil is good for at least a few more years, he's not a win now move, he's a foundational piece through at least 2027ish. Deebo was had for a 5th, and honestly his production has been very much worth that. He isn't gonna hit his potential bc of all the other stuff going on, he finds himself being the only major weapon far too often, but some of his early game success showed how much potential there still is there.

Also, jury is still out but some of the picks are starting to look problematic, specifically Sinnott. He has not done enough, and it's either because he's bad or because the coaches are bad, and neither explanation is good. Ertz might be gone after this year, and even if not his age is just gonna be more and more of a problem, so if Sinnott doesn't develop, you don't really have a pass-catching TE.

I also am starting to strongly question the logic of Conerly. This isn't a knock on Conerly himself though...AHEM...that could be done, but like, he's had a murderer's row of pass rushers across from him, combined with a WR corps that basically all died, meaning, it's all pass blocking for 8 years and then trying to run block into 8 man boxes. BUT, you had Coleman, who, can you REALLY say would be a significant downgrade at RT? And now Coleman is basically wandering in the desert bc he didn't take to guard. So it starts to look like Conerly was a "luxury" pick of sorts, that could perhaps have been better used on a DE like Ezeiraku.

Now sure, the logic made sense to help protect Jayden, at the time, but that logic really required 1) Coleman to slide to LG and work out, and more importantly, 2), Conerly to be good. Neither of those are happening. Hindsight is 20/20 and there are other factors involved (I still think like 80% of our offensive woes are downstream of the WR corps just all dying), but I'm starting to think they got too clever by half when, sometimes conventional wisdom of "draft a pass rusher, you NEED one" is the right one.

Overall, Adam's first two classes are on a bit of a razor's edge here. But the conventional wisdom in '24 was it was a great tackle and WR class, and we waited all the way until Coleman and Luke. How different is this team if we draft an OT who sorta locked down RT instead of Sinnott, and then grabbed Ezeiraku instead of Conerly? Sure, we are still in trouble with WRs, and unless we got up for Ladd, there's actually not really anyone worth grabbing between where we drafted Newton to where we drafted Luke (with the exception of Jalen McMillan who went in the 3rd), so WR corps is probably still screwed a bit, but more depth at DE would help a ton right now.

Sometimes the conventional wisdom is right.

Great post. The only thing I would quibble with is that I feel like it was safe to assume that Coleman, who was able to play well at left tackle in the pros and played some guard in college would be able to succeed at left guard no problem. Maybe even be excellent at it. Smarter people than me can probably tell you why that hasn’t happened, but I liked the idea of continuing to prioritize beefing up the O line. Bottom line is, there were just more holes to fill than draft picks for the last couple years, so it’s pretty easy to compile a list of what if’s.

 

[NoCalSkins]

Something else to consider is that going back to last offseason when you look at some of the older vets that were acquired at the time my thinking was that the front office & coaching staff were assuming based on probability that with a rookie QB and overall below average roster, they were likely looking at a .500 at best season, probably struggling out of the gate and that the older vets would provide a lot of utility off the field as well as what little they could still provide on the field. Guys like Ertz & Wagner, even Eckler who have been around the league a long time, have seen it all, understand what it takes in all facets of the game to succeed and train yourself etc etc.....the fact that they were in the twilight of their careers didn't matter so much for what was assumed a team that would be slowly building anyway.

Then 2024 season happened and the circumstances changed where their performance on the field suddenly needed to be more than they could provide. Ertz could no longer run, Wagner could no longer cover, and Eckler was always a bad sneeze away from IR. In 2024 it is fair to say some of that was masked by the overall health of the roster, but all the upsides we got out of it in 2024 we are now experiencing the downsides of it in 2025. Eckler barely played at all before being injured. Ertz's upside is being crippled by his drops, Wagner is even worse in coverage than last season etc etc.....

I say all this in the context of the OP question. No I do not think the strategy is off course, but I do admit that some of the guys who were supposed to come in behind Ertz & Wagner & Eckler are not living up to expectations and it is fair to say it might be setting the strategy back at the present time, however I don't think it has knocked it off course. Just as JD5 sped up the process due to his ability to elevate and mask some things, draft picks not working out will then impede the process.

The best argument for being off course is probably still the Lattimore trade, however I think there is a fair argument to be made that it was very circumstantial due to the team trending towards the playoffs and wanting to fill a void on the roster and hey, they were one game from getting to the superbowl, so while today it is easy to bash the move, at the time it seemed justified.

 

[skinsinparadise]

After the incredible ride in Year 1, one can hardly blame Adam Peters and Company for going all in and making some strong moves to 'win now'. Instead of maximizing draft picks and going young, Peters opted to add vets, make trades to add protection and weapons for Jayden, and pushed his chips to the table in the hope of continuing the previous year's magic.

What that a mistake?

I understood the logic of Peters' approach. I am in the Ben Standig persepective of Peters where I disagree with the he went all in narrative. I think he went medium. He went hard in some areas and was soft in others. The areas he went soft blew up on him and it happened in an even bigger way than some, me included, thought it would. It feels like he went all in because of the compounding of the Lattimore trade with the Tunsil one. But otherwise IMO, he if anything was too conservative. Forgot what national reporter recently criticized Washington for not going all in this off season like NE -- but I get the point NE swung hard in FA. I am not sure if I feel this way but if I had to philosophically criticize Peters's approach is he IMO didn't go all in, or rebuild mode this either -- he played it in the middle. Teams like Seattle and NE were more aggressive. I expect Peters is going to learn from that and adapt that style this off season.

To use an old school war analogy. He fortfied part of the fort and big time so and left a few places vulnerable. And the places he left vulnerable got blown to smithereens where the risk blew up in his face.

I do think his approach actually leads to greater success in 2026 albiet I doubt that was the main point of it at the time. Them likely getting a top 10 pick should help -- the draft looks stacked at some of their key needs including Wr and edge. If he went at this more aggressively, while I don't think we'd have had this lost season -- on the other hand I am not sure if would have a been a great season either. I think an all in approach would have lead to a 9-8 maybe 10-7 season versus the depressing 5-12 or 6-11 season we are likely headed towards.

But I do think oddly we got some luck that might go our way now. I do like Peters-Quinn-Jayden coming at 2026 after a dissapointing season where I think they will find their edge. The higer draft pick will help us add a elite talent or let us recoup draft picks. Lattimore's injury almost assures he's not back so they don't keep doubling down on that mistake and save like 17 million on the cap. We should have a more humbled and focused Terry. And I think Peters was a given a front window look at how a season can unravel if he leaves certains holes on the roster so I don't expect the same mistakes to be repeated.

Where he succeeded IMO.

A. he rebuilt an O line and that wasn't easy to do considering he inherited a bad one

B. He has had some sneaky good FA signings that while can't elevate their team on their own -- they are a good foundation if you add talent to it

C. They have a lot of cap room for a FA class in theory that is better than last years.

Where he didn't.

A. Pathetic depth at the outside WR spot. And it blew up in their face in bigger ways than even I expected.

B. Pathetic depth at safety and overestimation of their talent

C. Doubling down on Lattimore

D. Patchwork, half ass job trying to build a D line which can bring pressure. He was super conservative in FA on that front. lol, I recall the rumors that they wuld sign BOTH Milton Williams and Josh Sweat. They of course signed neither. they added Jacob Martin and D. Wise on edge. Yawn.

Patriots’ free-agent class has helped fast track successful 6-2 start

The Patriots free-agent class has helped spark the team’s turnaround this season. Let’s check in to see how the 12 offseason signings are faring.

www.bostonherald.com

Patriots’ free-agent class has helped fast track successful 6-2 start

Quarterback Drake Maye and head coach Mike Vrabel are the faces of the Patriots’ sudden turnaround this season, but savvy roster-building from the front office also helped spark the team’s 6-2 start.

Vrabel, executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf, vice president of player personnel Ryan Cowden and vice president of football operations and strategy John Streicher spearheaded a much-needed reshaping of the Patriots’ roster in free agency this offseason.

Overall, between signings, draft picks and waiver claims, the Patriots turned over 55% of their 53-man roster from the end of last season. And as good as Maye has been at quarterback through eight games, he likely wouldn’t be nearly as comfortable or efficient without the added influx of talent brought in this offseason.