Is Adam Peter's Strategy Off-Course?

[Voice_of_Reason]

Well if you believe that the average age of an NFL player is 26.6 years old, only JD5 and JJB are below that mean.

I think the average age of the NFL is skewed lower because of the huge number of 4th - 7th round draft picks who last an average of 2 years and then get replaced by the next 4th - 7th round pick as backups and special teams players. If you look at starters and contributors only, I think the average age would be higher.

I'm not going to try and do that math, though it is possible to do. Maybe in the off-season, I'll attempt it. All of the information is available, since snap counts per game are available and we know the age of players.

But my gut tells me having starters in their late 20's is not unusual.

I do hope that AP makes some splash FA moves this off-season. Find some ways to grab a true #1 WR , ED and CB, and front loading as much as possible in order that JDs mom can back up the truck in 2-3 years. We have limited to no draft ammo to play with, so he must maximize use of limited assets.

Current WR available FAs:
Mike Evans (Bucs) - He's old.
Christian Kirk (Texans) - He's been hurt all year
Deebo Samuel (Commanders) - He's here
George Pickens (Cowboys) - He's good but a headcase.
Rashid Shahaeed (New Orleans) - He's having an ok season. Though the Saints QB situation is abominable. Is he a #1? Eh?)
Alec Pierce (Colts) - He's doing well with the Colts, but I don't think he's a #1.
Jakobi Meyers (Raiders)- He's a #2/3
Jauan Jennings (49ers) - He's more of a #2/3.
Maybe others? But not really sure.

There isn't a #1 WR on this list apart from Pickens (who isn't a #1 for Dallas, Lamb is), and it's doubtful one will get released. Maybe there's a trade option, but WR1 is not really answerable in FA

Edge:
Trey Hendrickson (Bengals)- He'll be 31. But he's still good.
Jaelan Phillips (Miami) - though he might get traded and signed to a long term deal before FA.
Boye Mafe (Seahawks) - Maybe? He's young, but if he's really good, the Seahawks would keep him.
Khalil Mack - He'll be 35
Haasan Reddick - He'd be 33
Joey Bosa - He'd be 31
Malcolm Koonce - I'll be honest, I don't know much about him.

I'd take Jaelan Phillips, but I'm not sure that's going to happen. Of the others, not many answers outside of Hendrickson on this list.

CB:
Tariq Woolen (Seahawks)
Darius Slay - He'll be 35
Jonathan Jones - he's here
Amik Robertson
Jaire Alexander
Eric Stokes
Kaiir Elam
Kader Kohou
Greg Newsome

I mean, none of those guys are shutdown obvious #1 guys.

I guess the point is, those are premium positions, along with LT, they are probably THE premium positions outside of QB. And those players just don't become available. There weren't many available last year. You have to draft or trade for premier players at those positions.

 

[Ferndaleskins]

I voted yes it was a fools errand, but at the time it seemed like the right idea. I honestly think Terry’s holdout has a lot to deal with what the team is this year. And no his holdout is not responsible for the injuries but I do believe it has wrecked the brotherhood moral.

Also I felt the season was honestly lost when Ekeler went down. He was a huge clutch player we can’t replace.

I would like to see them trade whatever we can for draft picks, I want to be competitive for a long time and we aren’t making the playoffs this year.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I voted yes it was a fools errand, but at the time it seemed like the right idea. I honestly think Terry’s holdout has a lot to deal with what the team is this year. And no his holdout is not responsible for the injuries but I do believe it has wrecked the brotherhood moral.

Also I felt the season was honestly lost when Ekeler went down. He was a huge clutch player we can’t replace.

I would like to see them trade whatever we can for draft picks, I want to be competitive for a long time and we aren’t making the playoffs this year.

Interestingly, I think the most replaceable player we’ve lost is Ekler. The RB room is deep.

Losing D. Wise and Harris I think have been the toughest to replace on defense and McLaurin on offense.

I still don’t understand the fools errand thing. I just don’t see how Peters had a lot of options

 

[HOF44]

Forget a Chase or Jefferson, if we could just get JD a Higgins I think it would be absurd.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Forget a Chase or Jefferson, if we could just get JD a Higgins I think it would be absurd.

I’d argue McLaurin was Higgins last year. The difference is Higgins has Chase on the other side.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

I didn't see my option so I guess I'll vote Other. There was nothing wrong with the plan. The window appeared open and I was fine giving picks for Lattimore and Tunsil, even Deebo who has been productive as I had expected. Every team has injuries and last year's good fortune makes everyone believe this has been a horrible unlucky season when it's not that far from the norm. The problem is with many of his personnel choices.

Lattimore has been a disaster and I continue to question AP's drafts. All those 2nd round picks from a year ago and we can't really say that any of them appear to be building blocks nearly halfway through their 2nd season. And of course his 1st round pick from this year continues to get worked every week and we can no longer say he is going against All Pros. Let us all not just forget that JJ McCarthy was Peters' #2 QB in that draft, this is concerning.

 

[bowhunter]

I think the average age of the NFL is skewed lower because of the huge number of 4th - 7th round draft picks who last an average of 2 years and then get replaced by the next 4th - 7th round pick as backups and special teams players. If you look at starters and contributors only, I think the average age would be higher.

I'm not going to try and do that math, though it is possible to do. Maybe in the off-season, I'll attempt it. All of the information is available, since snap counts per game are available and we know the age of players.

But my gut tells me having starters in their late 20's is not unusual.


Current WR available FAs:
Mike Evans (Bucs) - He's old.
Christian Kirk (Texans) - He's been hurt all year
Deebo Samuel (Commanders) - He's here
George Pickens (Cowboys) - He's good but a headcase.
Rashid Shahaeed (New Orleans) - He's having an ok season. Though the Saints QB situation is abominable. Is he a #1? Eh?)
Alec Pierce (Colts) - He's doing well with the Colts, but I don't think he's a #1.
Jakobi Meyers (Raiders)- He's a #2/3
Jauan Jennings (49ers) - He's more of a #2/3.
Maybe others? But not really sure.

There isn't a #1 WR on this list apart from Pickens (who isn't a #1 for Dallas, Lamb is), and it's doubtful one will get released. Maybe there's a trade option, but WR1 is not really answerable in FA

Edge:
Trey Hendrickson (Bengals)- He'll be 31. But he's still good.
Jaelan Phillips (Miami) - though he might get traded and signed to a long term deal before FA.
Boye Mafe (Seahawks) - Maybe? He's young, but if he's really good, the Seahawks would keep him.
Khalil Mack - He'll be 35
Haasan Reddick - He'd be 33
Joey Bosa - He'd be 31
Malcolm Koonce - I'll be honest, I don't know much about him.

I'd take Jaelan Phillips, but I'm not sure that's going to happen. Of the others, not many answers outside of Hendrickson on this list.

CB:
Tariq Woolen (Seahawks)
Darius Slay - He'll be 35
Jonathan Jones - he's here
Amik Robertson
Jaire Alexander
Eric Stokes
Kaiir Elam
Kader Kohou
Greg Newsome

I mean, none of those guys are shutdown obvious #1 guys.

I guess the point is, those are premium positions, along with LT, they are probably THE premium positions outside of QB. And those players just don't become available. There weren't many available last year. You have to draft or trade for premier players at those positions.

Thank for such depth in your response. I did try to research "Average age of NFL STARTERs" but it ended up with a bunch of AI stuff and generalities. True, young round 4-UDFA guys can skew the data, but so can 41 year old QBs and punters. Mean vs Median data may require a bit more digging in the off season. I'm planning on retiring in December, so this would give me a project!

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Thank for such depth in your response. I did try to research "Average age of NFL STARTERs" but it ended up with a bunch of AI stuff and generalities. True, young round 4-UDFA guys can skew the data, but so can 41 year old QBs and punters. Mean vs Median data may require a bit more digging in the off season. I'm planning on retiring in December, so this would give me a project!

All the data is out there. It would take some formatting and stuff but it’s possible to do.

I would be interested to see the average age of starting rosters per team. The problem is, what is the starting roster? That’s the question which would need to be answered, and then it’s all math from there.

 

[NoCalSkins]

The plan being off course really comes down to how long you might feel the course takes. I think AP has made a few moves he likely never intended to make due to the circumstances the team found themselves in way sooner than later. If JD5 was merely your average rookie QB, I don't think the team is any kind of position that made buying at last year's trade deadline logical. Same with Tunsil & Deebo. AP is building for the long term, but I also believe that he thinks you shouldn't waste potential in the present either. I think the health of the team this season so far as played a bigger role in the 3-5 start than anything else but the super deep micro-analytics come with the territory. I think The Front Office & Coaches opinion were that they could win games this season with mostly the same game plan as last season. A few upgrades to the defense would make them better, but not necessarily by a lot. Once all the injuries kicked in, it took away the one path this team has to victory.

 

[method man]

For the “we need 3 seasons to judge a draft” crowd, this isn’t 1985 anymore. It’s a colossal disaster that we haven’t gotten even one league average starter out of those 5 2024 Day 2 picks

 

[RedWolf]

Does AP have the balls to tear this thing down and rebuild it correctly from scratch?

 

[DWinzit]

The team is void of talent and speed (and yes youth).

AP can't give up any draft picks to bring in a player to improve this year, they need to be thinking for he future and need more picks, not less

There needs be discussions about the staff and if change is required. Right now a shake up can't hurt in my eyes.

 

[method man]

Does AP have the balls to tear this thing down and rebuild it correctly from scratch?

We’ll see Tuesday. If they don’t sell, he doesn’t have the balls

 

[burgold]

I'd do a whisper search to see what we can get for Payne. I don't think he's been the problem this year. In fact, I think he's had a good year, but he's getting older and he generally plays better on years he decides it's a contract year so I cynically believe it's more about that than the light turning on. Besides, I think he's one of the few pieces that we might get a decent return on.

I doubt we can get anything good for Terry because of his health status. If we could I would honor his request to a trade even at the expence of the cap hit, but we'd have to get enough to offset the cap hit.

I don't think I'd begin a fire sale and jetison everybody. That's just being emotional, but I would look at the long term plan and who just won't be part of it. So for example, if someone offered me a third or a fourth for Ertz, much as I'd hate to lose him I'd consider it. I wouldn't take a sixth or seventh.

Not sure about Luvu. He seems to have regressed a lot. The question is why and does Quinn think he can regain what he lost?

 

[DieselPwr44]

The plan being off course really comes down to how long you might feel the course takes. I think AP has made a few moves he likely never intended to make due to the circumstances the team found themselves in way sooner than later. If JD5 was merely your average rookie QB, I don't think the team is any kind of position that made buying at last year's trade deadline logical. Same with Tunsil & Deebo. AP is building for the long term, but I also believe that he thinks you shouldn't waste potential in the present either. I think the health of the team this season so far as played a bigger role in the 3-5 start than anything else but the super deep micro-analytics come with the territory. I think The Front Office & Coaches opinion were that they could win games this season with mostly the same game plan as last season. A few upgrades to the defense would make them better, but not necessarily by a lot. Once all the injuries kicked in, it took away the one path this team has to victory.

Just highlights that Peters has no vision and can't stick to a plan. No patience.

Everyone likes to point to the moment at his introductory presser when he was asked about the talent level on the roster and his long pause before attempting to answer. That that was a huge hint of how bereft of talent this roster was.
Then for me,the next worrisome moment was when both Quinn and Peters bristled at the word "rebuild" and wanted us all to know it was a "recalibration." Basically, horse hockey.
This franchise has never done a true rebuild. It's always patch the SS Minnow with bailing wire and duct tape.

How about a GM for once here, go out of his way to jettison washed vets and start accumulating picks and do a serious youth movement?

It'd be a novel idea here for sure.

 

[Boone]

There's a little bit of irony in what's going down in that, most are now pivoting to 'Peters win-now strategy was a mistake', that this team needs a total rebuild and should sell all assets and focus on nothing but gathering picks and a full youth movement.

The irony is - no one saying that has the stomach for what that means in the short-terms, which is likely 3-5 win seasons for awhile.

I think Peters did go a little off course this offseason and I agree we should've probably foregone trades, shed anyone on the wrong side of 30, and doubled down on draft picks. What makes the 2025 season so hard to swallow is that we didn't do that, and we are still going to have a 3-5 win season, and have now managed to cast doubt on the one thing we all believed previously - that we have our franchise QB to build around.

 

[Ghost of Sarge]

I hear you. I want to know if folks think the results of this season (so far) are due to a miscalculation by Peters.

I believe so. Where I fault Peters in this category is the failure to realize just exactly how MUCH luck we had last year in the win/lose category. It was a lot. AND believing the hype of it all. Instead, he acted like we were the 92 Redskins, only needing a couple of players like Von Miller to take us to the show. Critical mistake, and it makes me wonder if he can recover. Guess we'll see next April, because while he miscalculated last year, this year there's no denying we suck

 

[Conn]

You build a winning foundation with the draft and augment with free agency. This should be automatic and basic for every GM. While I generally liked Adam's draft and believe he has a good track record, I just fear we're slipping back into bad habits relying on FA too much. But, I'm still way more optimistic obviously with the stench of Snyder being gone forever.

Interesting, I think we aren’t relying on FA enough. I don’t want them to go full Dream Team disaster, don’t get me wrong. But we have very few homegrown players we need to “budget for” right now and almost half a decade before AP’s guys (the ones who eventually hit) even need to be paid. We have league-leading cap space multiple years in a row and a roster bereft of talent (and now low on draft picks), what are we saving the money for? The “over use” of FA that you’re referring to has mostly been giving below market contracts to replacement level or worse veterans to fill the roster with something other than UDFA’s, and it’s not really working. I think signing some good, impactful football players in their mid-20’s to “over market” but not ridiculous contracts, structured well, would help us a lot to raise the talent floor. Even without injuries this team wasn’t going anywhere this year.


It’s starting to feel like we don’t operate by the technical cap, but on a “cash cap” from the ownership group, and AP alluded to that last year in fact. If that’s the case we’re just never going to compete with teams willing to outlay 30%+ more actual cash than us each year, I’m sorry to say. Hopefully it’s not the case and AP just has been cautious with the health of our future cap. But right now rolling over $40M+ or whatever each year in preparation for Daniels and others needing to be paid in 3-5 years just reads as absolutely arrogant/assumptive about their own drafting ability, and overly cautious.

 

[Discobob]

There isn't a #1 WR on this list apart from Pickens (who isn't a #1 for Dallas, Lamb is), and it's doubtful one will get released. Maybe there's a trade option, but WR1 is not really answerable in FA

Last year demonstrated that Daniels can elevate WRs... but there is a limit to how much. Last years corp was a 1B (Terry) and a bunch of #3/#4 WRs and we made it work. What is different this year?

1) Our room has mostly been #4/#5 type of guys
2) None of our players get separation against man coverage (or are the type of guy you throw contested balls to)
3) Ekler was huge as a receiving threat
4) Ertz has regressed

My point in all this is that we don't necessarily need a #1... we just need some speed and separation from a few guys. Someone like Alec Pierce as a deep threat would affect how our opponents play us.

 

[method man]

Interesting, I think we aren’t relying on FA enough. I don’t want them to go full Dream Team disaster, don’t get me wrong. But we have very few homegrown players we need to “budget for” right now and almost half a decade before AP’s guys (the ones who eventually hit) even need to be paid. We have league-leading cap space multiple years in a row and a roster bereft of talent (and now low on draft picks), what are we saving the money for? The “over use” of FA that you’re referring to has mostly been giving below market contracts to replacement level or worse veterans to fill the roster with something other than UDFA’s, and it’s not really working. I think signing some good, impactful football players in their mid-20’s to “over market” but not ridiculous contracts, structured well, would help us a lot to raise the talent floor. Even without injuries this team wasn’t going anywhere this year.


It’s starting to feel like we don’t operate by the technical cap, but on a “cash cap” from the ownership group, and AP alluded to that last year in fact. If that’s the case we’re just never going to compete with teams willing to outlay 30%+ more actual cash than us each year, I’m sorry to say. Hopefully it’s not the case and AP just has been cautious with the health of our future cap. But right now rolling over $40M+ or whatever each year in preparation for Daniels and others needing to be paid in 3-5 years just reads as absolutely arrogant/assumptive about their own drafting ability, and overly cautious.

It could be both. There is definitely a cash budget but AP isn't aggressively going to them to push this higher because he is confident in his ability to find guys on one year deals + draft well. I've made the comparison a bunch but he really is the football version of Mike Elias.

For those who are not Orioles fans, Elias had a big offseason in front of him to make some splashes in FA for pitching and bats with plenty of budget after a couple playoff seasons where his team didn't win a single game in the post season. Due to the presence of so few meaningful contracts, he could've spent and signed good players to multiyear deals. Instead, he chose to sign 40 year old Charlie Morton to a 1 year deal, a 35 year old rookie from Japan to a 1 year deal and Andrew Kittredge to a 1 year deal. All sucked and a couple those guys got traded at the deadline for peanuts and the Orioles finished in last place in the division this year.

Like AP this coming offseason, Elias has a big test in front of him to grow a pair and spend