Howling for Howell

Awesome breakdown of the TD to Terry vs Denver

 
Yeah, he's got a lot to learn from this game. The first INT, he was baited into that throw. He has to know where that LB is. The one INT in the endzone, it seemed like his arm was hit. Not positive on that, but I know that Matt Ryan on the broadcast said he should not have even made the throw. I'd be curious if the DB could make the play if his arm was not hit (if it was). The floater for the pick 6, I hope what he learns from that is if he pump fakes, the defender gets off his feet and he can just run right around him. I think the other INT was a ball late to the flat, which is a big no-no. But all of these INTs are correctable and things he should be learning from. He will need to bounce back next week against another tough D. It would have been interesting to see what this game was like without those turnovers. It was only a 2 possession game in the 4th quarter even with 3 INTs at that point.
 
This is something that will only go away when/if it goes away ...

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That’s kind of a bullshit stat imho. Doesn’t change the fact that sacks kill drive and rob you of scoring opportunities. But quantifying it as a metric seems pretty sketchy to me.
 
Maybe. Mostly what I'm taking away from both of those graphics is Sam has had a "sack problem" going back to college days. Doesn't mean it can't be "fixed" going forward, just that it's not something that's just cropped up behind our average-at-best offensive line and in a new offense.
 
I’m not arguing the overall point but ‘expected points’ is more astrology than astronomy :)
 
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I really had to hunt for Sam’s college sack stats:

2019 - 38 (2.9/game)
2020 - 25 (2.1/game)
2021 - 34 (2.8/game)
UNC Career - (2.7/game)
On the other hand, his TD to INT #’s were outstanding:

2019 - 38/7
2020 - 30/7
2021 - 24/9

I looked at guys like Kenny Pickett, Trevor Lawrence, and a few others and their season averages were 23 and 16 respectively. But I’d also consider you can’t compare the quality of Howell’s supporting cast to Clemson or other dominant programs. So while sacks are an issue for Howell, possible his college stats also support the idea that a shitty college OL will help lead to a lot of sacks just like a shitty NFL line will :)

Howell is averaging 6.3 sacks per game this season - more than twice his college rate. So I think there’s a lot going on there in addition to him holding onto the ball too long.
 
I highly recommend giving Kiem's pod with Logan Paulson that dropped this morning a listen. The sack issue was discussed in depth.

Paulson calls our line fairly average for the NFL and a line that would be great for a veteran QB with a lot of experience. This is as opposed to Cleveland's line which is an expensive line, both in terms of the draft and money, and is keeping Watson clean the whole game.

It was an interesting pod and I learned a lot.

Kiem also discusses the roll-out idea that Om brought up on our pod.
 
Boone said:
I’m not arguing the overall point but ‘expected points’ is more astrology than astronomy :)
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And if he cost 10 points last game because of the sacks, they are still 2-1 on the season.
 
Neophyte said:
I highly recommend giving Kiem's pod with Logan Paulson that dropped this morning a listen. The sack issue was discussed in depth.

Paulson calls our line fairly average for the NFL and a line that would be great for a veteran QB with a lot of experience. This is as opposed to Cleveland's line which is an expensive line, both in terms of the draft and money, and is keeping Watson clean the whole game.

It was an interesting pod and I learned a lot.

Kiem also discusses the roll-out idea that Om brought up on our pod.
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I regularly listen to the Take Command podcast and find Logan Paulson’s analysis really insightful.
 
So...sacks are apparently a big deal. Who knew?

 
Ouch.

% of drives an offense allows at least one sack in 2023:

37% - Washington Commanders
36% - Tennessee Titans
34% - Chicago Bears
34% - New York Giants
33% - Houston Texans
31% - Atlanta Falcons
31% - New Orleans Saints
29% - Cleveland Browns
27% - Denver Broncos
26% - New York Jets
26% - Carolina Panthers
24% - Minnesota Vikings
23% - Buffalo Bills
20% - Indianapolis Colts
20% - Baltimore Ravens
20% - Philadelphia Eagles
19% - Los Angeles Rams
19% - Los Angeles Chargers
18% - San Francisco 49ers
17% - Arizona Cardinals
16% - Jacksonville Jaguars
16% - New England Patriots
16% - Pittsburgh Steelers
14% - Las Vegas Raiders
14% - Cincinnati Bengals
13% - Seattle Seahawks
10% - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9% - Green Bay Packers
9% - Detroit Lions
7% - Dallas Cowboys
3% - Kansas City Chiefs
3% - Miami Dolphins
 
Yeah, that's some rare air there, right? Elite company.

SMDH
 
In thinking about 2024, how many new offensive line starters do you think we will see? How many should we see?

Unfortunately, capwise it may be difficult to deal with Leno and Wylie. Maybe you can move Wylie back to guard? If there were no salary cap I probably wouldn't mind replacing Charles, Wylie, Leno, and Charles. Though I'm not sure you can replace an entire Oline in one season.

Leno is probably still okay, but we should aim for better than okay.
Wylie has not been good.
Hard to assess guard play, but it feels like pressure through the middle happens too often. I'm assuming that's more Gates and Charles, but that's only because I've heard their names more than Cosmi's.

Clearly, we don't have backups ready to jump up or you'd hope with this level of play that the coaches would use the power of the bench.
 
burgold said:
In thinking about 2024, how many new offensive line starters do you think we will see? How many should we see?

Unfortunately, capwise it may be difficult to deal with Leno and Wylie. Maybe you can move Wylie back to guard? If there were no salary cap I probably wouldn't mind replacing Charles, Wylie, Leno, and Charles. Though I'm not sure you can replace an entire Oline in one season.

Leno is probably still okay, but we should aim for better than okay.
Wylie has not been good.
Hard to assess guard play, but it feels like pressure through the middle happens too often. I'm assuming that's more Gates and Charles, but that's only because I've heard their names more than Cosmi's.

Clearly, we don't have backups ready to jump up or you'd hope with this level of play that the coaches would use the power of the bench.
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Ideally, I think they need to use a high draft pick (1st or 2nd round) and sign a free agent. So you are probably look at 2 at best. I also think they need to use a mid round pick (3-5) on another OL. So drafting at least 2 and signing 1, you may be able to get 2 starters out of that. I think it's hard to imagine many more than that without an unlimited salary cap. And you won't get a whole starting line in one year through the draft. Hopefully they make this a priority because this man needs protection.
 
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