Daron Payne & Free Agency

[Kel Varnsen]

On the TE front, it would be nice to be in a position to draft Brock Bowers in the 2024 draft.

 

[DieselPwr44]

Logan Thomas is an UFA in 2025 but I’d consider trading him or releasing him.

He is oft-injured and his level of play is declining.

If he's there at 16, would you draft Michael Mayer,the do it all, big TE from Notre Dame?

 

[Boone]

I don't think TE's are involved enough on a play by play basis to pick one in the 1st round. I'd go QB/OL/CB/LB there.

 

[Boone]

I think Rivera and Mayhew are bound and determined to sign a vet free agent QB. If they do, there are only 2 guys I would reluctantly support - Gardner Minshew and Derek Carr (assuming he’s released and we a) don’t have to give up picks and he’s willing to sign for a reasonable salary.

I strongly prefer Minshew firstly because I think Carr will demand a big salary and there will be a lot of suitors driving up the cost. Minshew is smart and would be good competition for Sam Howell whereas if it’s Carr he would be the starter.

 

[SilentThreat]

100% tag and trade him IF you can... the problem is you don't control that whole destiny because you need a trade partner who will give you more than a 3rd round pick. If you let him walk, you're gonna get a compensatory 3rd rounder in 2025, so that has to be the absolute floor of return. I obviously think you could get more than a 3 for him, but thats the only real 'assurance.'

I don't see him on this roster next year and here is why:



These are 3rd and 4th string DTs.. We took a DT in the 2nd round last year in Mathis. To have invested that, paid Allen, AND have what you already have, then to pay Payne what he's 'earned' will result in an absolutely OVER stacked DT position while others are severely suffering.

 

[DieselPwr44]

I don't think TE's are involved enough on a play by play basis to pick one in the 1st round. I'd go QB/OL/CB/LB there.

Only because we haven't had a steady elite one in forever.
What would a Kelce or Kittle mean to the offense here?What's that worth?

Not that I'm advocating to draft one in round one...just playing Devil's Advocate here.

 

[Chris]

I will be very disappointed if #16 is spent on any position other than OT or CB.

 

[burgold]

I will be very disappointed if #16 is spent on any position other than OT or CB.

Honestly, I'd be okay with G or LB, too. I don't know that we have a single starting guard on the roster. Our best guard is probably Cosmi... and Cosmi is a tackle who can't stay healthy.

 

[Chris]

Honestly, I'd be okay with G or LB, too. I don't know that we have a single starting guard on the roster. Our best guard is probably Cosmi... and Cosmi is a tackle who can't stay healthy.

I don’t think you need to spend a mid first rounder to find a quality guard in the draft. A difference maker at LB at that spot? Sure, but I would spend the prized draft capital on the OL.

Ultimately I expect, at this point, that Cosmi will be a guard next season.

 

[burgold]

You may be right, but given how prominent blitzing and pressure up the middle is these days, I'd argue guard has increased in value. Some guards are definitely first round worthy in my book. Not sure if there are any of those in this draft.

 

[Boone]

Only because we haven't had a steady elite one in forever.
What would a Kelce or Kittle mean to the offense here?What's that worth?

Not that I'm advocating to draft one in round one...just playing Devil's Advocate here.

I hear you. I might feel differently if there was a difference making all purpose TE available, one that was a road grader as a blocker. But we seem to value pass catching types only.

 

[Bulldog]

The acquisition of a consistent two-way TE would be among the best help Ron or a new staff could give a starting quarterback here.

I would have been in on the TJ Hockenson deal earlier in the year when Detroit dumped him and Minnesota picked him up.

 

[Chris]

I hear you. I might feel differently if there was a difference making all purpose TE available, one that was a road grader as a blocker. But we seem to value pass catching types only.

Does that player even exist anymore in the NFL? Or are those types of athletes all playing DE now or power forward in the NBA?

 

[Boone]

 

[Chris]

Could you imagine?

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

Payne is not Haynesworth. He is not Jonathan Allen either.

I never suspected even a little bit that Allen would drop-off after signing a big deal. I’m not so sure about Payne. As with anything, time will tell.

Mayhew said something in a press conference recently. He said something like "Payne played at a level of a high contract player this year for sure" and it sounded like he emphasized "this year" - it wasn't to the point of insulting the player publicly which is ALWAYS stupid, because other players/agents don't want to join a team that may insult you coming in OR going out. They want to come to a team that will support you publicly, even if you have friction. That is key, and one of the easy wins the FO has always screwed up, most likely due to the personality of the dear leader. When the ultimate boss is a bit of a jerk, the people underneath don't hold themselves to any standard and apparently weren't smart enough to figure out how impotrant it is.

So far, Mayhew hasn't been too bad on that front, and in the Payne conversation it wasn't a clear dig. The Marties HAVE botched relationships (Ioannidis) but even there I think it was botched privately/directly and not publicly.

The main point though: if he was emphasizing "this year" hopefully it means that they won't overpay thinking that this production will definitely continue. I share your concern.

 

[Knightingale]

So, they want Payne back this year (or so they've said!)
And we have some big contracts coming up for the next couple of years (as has been detailed above)

So...on a tangent do we think that this more or less forces their hand to go with Sam Howell as QB next year?

Conceivably you'd think that the only way we're going to lock in our big defensive contracts is to get a QB on a rookie deal.
Trading/Signing Carr in the off season (as it seems is getting a lot of buzz in the press) is probably just going to mean that we can't sign one of the key defensive players down the line over the next 2 years.

Like Boone mentioned, I think we move on from Logan Thomas, let Wentz go. I'd do whatever it takes to bring back Payne, and then I'd keep a serious eye next year on Sweat and Young to see which one to keep , or both if they're playing like studs.

As for Payne and any drop off next year...I wonder how much would depend on where we stood next year. If it's clear that under Howell (if he starts) and with a new OC, the Offense takes a leap, and if we are suddenly in contention for Playoffs and divisional title, then I wonder if that would be impetus for the D to play hard. (Or at least keep their foot on the gas.) If it's clear we're a middling team, then I could see Payne coasting once he gets the big contract. Allen I don't worry about, he seems to have the work ethic in him, like McLaurin and Heineke, where he puts it on the field every day. I think his stats dropped a little this year as everyone else stepped up a bit and started playing as a coordinated and unselfish unit and not the hero-ball from last year.

 

[Bulldog]

Payne had a superb season this year but hasn’t consistently played at that level since being drafted.

Allen and McLaurin have shown they can produce when not paired with another above average talent, Payne has not.

Look, someone is going to pay Daron.

But if I am Washington I am not breaking the bank to give him more than Jonathan or Terry.

My thoughts are that Payne will be a very solid player in the future but he will not likely rise to being the individual difference maker his new salary will suggest he is.

I would rather let Houston or Miami overpay for a good player by offering an outsized deal.

 

[Chris]

I will just put this here for comparison. I imagine his agent just might too. (Yes, I know the saying about statistics.)

Jonathan Allen‘s 1st 5 seasons (‘17-‘21)-

Games- 69
Tackles- 245 (3.55pg)
Solo- 132 (1.91pg)
Assists- 113 (1.64pg)
Sacks- 26 (0.37pg)
Passes defended- 1

Daron Payne’s 1st 5 seasons (’18-‘22)-

Games- 81
Tackles- 266 (3.28pg)
Solo- 136 (1.67pg)
Assists- 130 (1.60pg)
Sacks- 26 (0.32pg)
Passes defended- 14

 

[Bulldog]

Those stats are great. The issue at one layer is we are already paying Jonathan Allen and he is a pro bowler. So, how much money are you going to tie up in the DT position when Sweat and other younger players come to negotiate new deals next year and down the line?

Also, as indicated before Allen brings a consistency and vocal leadership to the team which Payne does not.

Allen missed some games earlier in his career and so his stats are skewing a bit low with 69 games played vs. 81.

My gut feeling again though on that score of productivity is that Payne benefits greatly from the attention paid to Allen.

I am not saying they are the same because I think Payne is a good guy overall, but the comparison to me I recall is that of Bryant Young and Dana Stubblefield in San Francisco.

Young was a consistent pro bowler and two-way player. Stubblefield put up great statistics next to Young and his final year before free agency posted an unheard of 15 sacks playing inside at DT.

What did San Francisco do? The 49ers recognized that Young was in fact the anchor of the defense and Dana benefited from playing with him. Moreover, those contract year stats that Stubblefield put up were not likely to be duplicated in the future and to pay him based on THOSE stats would be unwise.

And that's the way I fee here.

Of course Stubblefield turned out to be Haynesworth Jr. and a bad guy in the locker room and off the field with issues, so the comparison is not as a human being but strictly as a football player.

Bryant Young is a HOF quality player, Stubblefield is a guy that had some nice seasons with SF and helped win a Super Bowl.

But he never lived up to the contract he was given by Washington.