Coronavirus - COVID19

Happy hour starts in 5 minutes
Status
Not open for further replies.

China

The Team Captain
Joe Gibbs Club Member
Joined
Aug 3, 2009
Messages
2,653
Reaction score
10
Points
68
Location
Falls Church, VA

Michigan State

Lotta (and I mean a lot) of NY, NJ, PA vacationers in my area this weekend. Not a good thing from a Covid perspective and on principle. However, since those states decided to actively eliminate their older/more susceptible demographics, these vacationers are almost uniformly younger presenting a lesser threat. /s
Don't be so sure about the younger people being a lesser threat. They may not die as much from it, but they may be more of a threat as super spreaders:

Younger people are a factor in surge of COVID-19 cases, analysis shows

Before Memorial Day, the majority of coronavirus cases were found in people 45 and older.

Now, the opposite is true.

People under 45 made up 42% of cases before Memorial Day weekend but 55% of cases reported since then, a new USA TODAY analysis has found.

The trend holds in places where new cases are surging and in those that are not, according to the analysis of data from 25 states and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The rapid growth in coronavirus infections among younger Americans is one factor behind why some states have broken single-day records this week, and it marks a new phase in a U.S. pandemic that first gained widespread attention with a Washington nursing home outbreak in late February and early March.

Total cases among people younger than 45 have grown nearly twice as fast as for people 65 and older since late May, USA TODAY's analysis of CDC data shows. The younger the age cohort, the more rapid the pace of growth. Had all age groups experienced the same, lower growth rate as seniors, the country would have added 30% fewer new cases over the past month.

Click on the link for the full article
 

fansince62

The All-Time Great
Joined
Jul 22, 2009
Messages
16,349
Reaction score
156
Points
343


My focus is on the death rate, knowledge that the data and modeling have been thoroughly politcized (i.e., untrustworthy) and what I see/know is happening around me. It's clear as all day to me that Covid is a threat but, like so much else, has been co-opted to service a far larger set of polticical object\ives. The policy contradictions are so obcvious as to not warrant serious debate.

We live in a time of utter, complete failure of the elitist, ruling classes. I, at least, take serioously the notion that this disease, an unfortunate accident or not, is and has been exploited for much more nefarious reasons. The time has arrived to intelligently push back. And if that doesn't work - to push back harder.

All due respect, it doesn't help that I don't take any of the sources you quote seriously.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ax

Neophyte

GM
Staff member
Joined
Jun 30, 2009
Messages
8,507
Reaction score
160
Points
218
Location
Dallas


With respect, I would like to suggest that there is much more to this than the death rate. A quick story if you will permit me...

Not quite 14 years ago, I came down with what my GP at the time diagnosed as the flu. Long story short, I missed 8 days of work - the first 8 sick days I had ever taken. I lost over 20 lbs in less than 10 days, and my life has not been the same since. This all happened right after Thanksgiving. We traveled home to VA to see my parents for Christmas and even though "fully recovered" I was too weak to hold my 4-month daughter standing in line to board the plane. In March, I was too weak to mow my yard. I am only just now, 14 years later, getting back to working out on a regular basis every week. Yesterday morning I got up and ran 2 miles (sort of) but last night, headed to bed, my wife asked if I had just gone out for another run because standing in our bathroom I was breathing heavy and sweating - I had done nothing more than walk upstairs.

I have seen multiple doctors and had multiple tests. They all believe me when I tell them something isn't right but they have yet to find it. This spring I decided I was going to stop seeing doctors about and just go back to working out like I am normal. I have been somewhat successful at too and yet multiple times a week a walk across my house, in the air conditioning, makes me feel like I've run a mile. I am only 53. I think I am 20 lbs too heavy but my doctor has never once suggested that I need to lose weight and no one would call me overweight to look at me. Every year for my annual, they run every blood test known to man and everything comes back in the normal ranges.

I said all that to say this - COVID terrifies me and I don't scare where medical stuff is concerned. My family's genetic history, on paper anyway, makes me appear all but bulletproof. I am more worried about losing my mind before my body goes. However, reading accounts of people who had this virus back in March or April and what they are dealing with now scares me. It reminds me of my story above, only much worse. I am still not over the effects of whatever it was I had over a decade ago. At the risk of sounding dramatic, I fear the effects of COVID might hang on a lifetime and be a lot worse than what I currently experience. And that has nothing to do with politics.
 

fansince62

The All-Time Great
Joined
Jul 22, 2009
Messages
16,349
Reaction score
156
Points
343


Neo...that is an entirely different argument.

1. No one is saying that if one is in a high risk group they shouldn't take proactive measures. In fact, one wishes states like NY were less malicious in how they handled older demographics when they first issued edicts that basically amounted to death warrants. The point is that proactive measures do not have to be applied unilaterally to everyone.

2. A sound statistical analysis has to account for everything that happened from beginning to end. As ever, data collection follows initial questions if one is searching for cause and effect relations (i.e., data collection is driven by hypotheses and theory - what is sometimes, laughably, called science these days). In my mind, the questions subset into different subcategories that attempt to construct a picture of all the threads leading to observalble outcomes over time. What we see today statistically is all part of chains of events.....
- did the Chinese intentionally promote immigration for Wuhan victims to Europe and the US? Absent that travel the incident rate/spread could have been much, much lower in states like Washington and overall. Why is it the WHO has reversed course from its initial positons/recommendations? Was their leadership unduly influenced by other objectives and relationships?
- did (mostly Blue states) travel portals screw up (intentionally or not) by initially fighting any travel restrictions into their hubs? Absent that resistance, which was largely poltical, the incident rate could have been much, much lower.
- did initial decisions by political leadership, largely in Blue states again, to promote social gatherings (see Pilosi, DeBlasio) elevate the rate of spread?
- did travel from high impact states (e.g., NY) to other states promote the spread? It has been happening since day one. Anecdotally, travel/vacationing this week from NY, NJ and PA has been huge where I live (VA Beach area)
- how accurate is the data? There have been recurring stories of medical personnel being instructed to label cause of death as Covid based if there is any trace of the virus without regard for pre-existing health conditions. How is it the incident rate is increasing but the death rate falling? What is the import of this fact for policy? Why is it when the data is looked at differently, for example deaths per million citizens, the results are highly skewed to Blue states? It's a legitimate question if one is searching for causal factors that can then be addressed in reasonable policies.
- how do we know the real incident rate and timing since testing did not amp up until months after the initial cases?
- why have the policy/undemocratic state executive prescriptive edicts been so variable/contradictory in the same states? Does the disease last long on surfaces or not? Does quarantining in one's home abate or enhance the incident rate due to air recirculation from air conditioners? Is it actually safer to spend more time outside? How effective are the bulk of masks being worn? What is the probability of contracting the disease in public spaces?
- how much of this spread can be traced to intentionally malicious political decisions? Why is it some non-essential services where people aggregate are closed but others left open? Why is it protesting state edicts is a mortal threat but other, very large, social protests entirely acceptable? Can't have it both ways if the supposed primary consideration is arresting the rate of spread.
- why do the stats (or at least the reporting) never cover secondary causes of Covid driven social malady (unemployment) and even death (suicide) that is traced to the prescriptive/proscriptive policies that have been implemented.
- why were the models so heinously off in their predictions? Was this intentional? Was the initial drviver for lockdown, insufficient ICU bedspace and respirators, an intentional fabrication/data manipulation?

Neo, I understand your situation and trust that you are making wise decisions for yourself and your family. For myself, I have come to the conclusion that there is no desire to hold the folks who produced the original outbreak accountable (btw....notice on this second run on the disease merry-go-round in China, far as we know, they are not permitting foreign-bound travel?); who deliberately spread it accountable; who deliberately implemented policies that exacerbated death impacts accountable; who selectively enforced their own policies accountable; who, being generous, relied on "expert" advice from epidemiological SMEs who were wildly wrong in their predictive analyses (intentionally one wonders?) accountable; who actively fought any positive indicators of vaccines/t-cell/antibody effectiveness accountable. I could expand this to examples of how the MSM has played politics with everything. Suffice to say, in my mind, it's not that the disease should be understood and fought with the best talent and resources available - it's that the actual response has been FUBAR and conflicted from day one. It's clear as all day that the Covid response was usurped by political currents early on and that the public welfare/health was a distant, secondary consideration. All of this, for me, leads to a mindset where I do not believe most of the data and certainly none of the false flag "science" that has been advanced. Point being that political machinations have created a situation in which one cannot trust the data, the analysis, or proscriptive measures - we don't know what is accurate. We don't know where ground truth falls. We can't because all these institutional interests are no longer invested with the integrity or trust that they have been traditionally allotted. Regrettably, I believe this is a long-term problem that very likely will prove more deadly than the Covid/Whuhan virus.

It's all connected.
 
Last edited:

China

The Team Captain
Joe Gibbs Club Member
Joined
Aug 3, 2009
Messages
2,653
Reaction score
10
Points
68
Location
Falls Church, VA

Michigan State

I'm inclined to believe a report in the Journal of the American Medical Association from researchers at Yale and NIH:

Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is ‘a substantial undercount’ of actual tally, Yale study finds

The number of confirmed U.S. deaths due to the coronavirus is substantially lower than the true tally, according to a study published Wednesday in JAMA Internal Medicine.

Using National Center for Health Statistics data, researchers at Yale University compared the number of excess U.S. deaths from any causes with the reported number of weekly U.S. Covid-19 deaths from March 1 through May 30. The numbers were then compared with deaths from the same period in previous years.

Researchers found that the excess number of deaths over normal levels also exceeded those attributed to Covid-19, leading them to conclude that many of those fatalities were likely caused by the coronavirus but not confirmed. State reporting discrepancies and a sharp increase in U.S. deaths amid a pandemic suggest the number of Covid-19 fatalities is undercounted, they said.

“Our analyses suggest that the official tally of deaths due to Covid-19 represent a substantial undercount of the true burden,” Dan Weinberger, an epidemiologist at Yale School of Public Health and a lead author of the study, told CNBC. Weinberger said other factors could contribute to the increase in deaths, such as people avoiding emergency treatment for things like heart attacks. However, he doesn’t think that is the main driver.

The study was supported by the National Institute of Health.

The 781,000 total deaths in the United States in the three months through May 30 were about 122,300, or nearly 19% higher, than what would normally be expected, according to the researchers. Of the 122,300 excess deaths, 95,235 were attributed to Covid-19, they said. Most of the rest of the excess deaths, researchers said, were likely related to or directly caused by the coronavirus.
 

Boone

GM
Staff member
Joined
Apr 11, 2009
Messages
40,173
Reaction score
1,335
Points
2,044
Location
Greensboro, NC

Marine Corps Virginia

I have no doubt as no data has been perfect as this has progressed. I wouldn't discount the impact of folks avoiding hospitals like the plague. Anecdotally, that's exactly what hospitals in my area experienced, especially early on. There is also the factor of ORs being shut down to anything but emergent surgeries. You can call all other's 'elective' if you want, but the truth is, delays in needed surgeries is another factor which might equate to higher than normal death rates. And then there are increased suicide rates. So I'm not sure it's all directly COVID-19 related.
 

fansince62

The All-Time Great
Joined
Jul 22, 2009
Messages
16,349
Reaction score
156
Points
343


I'm inclined to believe a report in the Journal of the American Medical Association from researchers at Yale and NIH:

Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is ‘a substantial undercount’ of actual tally, Yale study finds
I absolutely do not trust these people - not these days. I say this with a legacy: my dad was a Yale undergrad/grad and Sterling Fellow honoree. My mother earned a masters from Yale.

I will concede Halloween is a blast at Yale. Ivy League idiots.

Academia has been totally corrupted. How many academics have been fired or indicted this year alone for selling us out to China? A lot.

I've moved on to other stages in my social "consiousness". I'll leave it at this - I grew up in the academic culture. One of my grandparents was a famous European philosopher. Covid/Wuhan is becoming a distant memory that is simply one dimension of the much broader class and ideological warfare that is unfolding on TV every night.
 
Last edited:

fansince62

The All-Time Great
Joined
Jul 22, 2009
Messages
16,349
Reaction score
156
Points
343


Anyone else tracking on how Covid stats are now being influenced by what is called contact tracing?
 

ChiefRunningSioux

Camp Fodder
Joined
Feb 24, 2020
Messages
38
Reaction score
20
Points
8
Location
Oregon


I absolutely do not trust these people - not these days. I say this with a legacy: my dad was a Yale undergrad/grad and Sterling Fellow honoree. My mother earned a masters from Yale.

I will concede Halloween is a blast at Yale. Ivy League idiots.

Academia has been totally corrupted. How many academics have been fired or indicted this year alone for selling us out to China? A lot.

I've moved on to other stages in my social "consiousness". I'll leave it at this - I grew up in the academic culture. One of my grandparents was a famous European philosopher. Covid/Wuhan is becoming a distant memory that is simply one dimension of the much broader class and ideological warfare that is unfolding on TV every night.
propaganda, plain and simple. peoples lives are being sestroyed economically but they still run around like babbling chickens ,worrying about masks
 

fansince62

The All-Time Great
Joined
Jul 22, 2009
Messages
16,349
Reaction score
156
Points
343


propaganda, plain and simple. peoples lives are being sestroyed economically but they still run around like babbling chickens ,worrying about masks
It might have propaganda purposes. Masks have utility - we just don't know how much. The point I'm really making is that traditional processes of peer review, open debate, etc., have all but disappeared. Statistical modeling and analysis is easily manipulated - as is data management itself. Ironically, in the age of the Internet, authoritative data and institutioanal integrity have all but disappeared. It's all "culture determined" and/or ideological now. NFL case in point

Anyone else catch The Kaepernick re-tweets someone posted today wishing people a happy 4th of July back in 2011 and 2012?

CRS: I do agree with you that overall social welfare does not appear to be the leading concern for many "managing" the Covid response strategy. As noted in some other posts, my beef is the difficulty in finding ground truth in all of this. There is, afterall, direct self-interest in managing Covid risk intelligently!
 

Neophyte

GM
Staff member
Joined
Jun 30, 2009
Messages
8,507
Reaction score
160
Points
218
Location
Dallas


Alright.

This thread had/has a purpose and that was to discuss our individual daily experiences during this situation. Politics was not part of that. Admittedly, I have crossed that boundary a time or two myself but that was some time ago and I have left all that at the door since Boone politely pointed it out to me (as he should have). Now I am pointing it out.

As always, everyone is perfectly free to have their own thoughts about the virus and the many responses to it. BGO is not, however, the right forum for the expression of those thoughts. We have learned the hard way that this is just not a good place for politics and it seems that politics lies at the heart of this matter. If discuss it you must, there are plenty of back-water sinkholes and dive-bar forums on the internet that don't just allow that discussion but actively encourage it. As we do not welcome it here, please restrain yourself from going there when visiting here.

Thank you.
 

ChiefRunningSioux

Camp Fodder
Joined
Feb 24, 2020
Messages
38
Reaction score
20
Points
8
Location
Oregon


Don't be so sure about the younger people being a lesser threat. They may not die as much from it, but they may be more of a threat as super spreaders:

Younger people are a factor in surge of COVID-19 cases, analysis shows

Before Memorial Day, the majority of coronavirus cases were found in people 45 and older.

Now, the opposite is true.

People under 45 made up 42% of cases before Memorial Day weekend but 55% of cases reported since then, a new USA TODAY analysis has found.

The trend holds in places where new cases are surging and in those that are not, according to the analysis of data from 25 states and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The rapid growth in coronavirus infections among younger Americans is one factor behind why some states have broken single-day records this week, and it marks a new phase in a U.S. pandemic that first gained widespread attention with a Washington nursing home outbreak in late February and early March.

Total cases among people younger than 45 have grown nearly twice as fast as for people 65 and older since late May, USA TODAY's analysis of CDC data shows. The younger the age cohort, the more rapid the pace of growth. Had all age groups experienced the same, lower growth rate as seniors, the country would have added 30% fewer new cases over the past month.

Click on the link for the full article
so called death numbers are entirely on the down side. it doesnt matter how many cases they supposedly claim to have.
no one hardly knows anyone who has/had it. Nor can they prove they even had CV.
 

ChiefRunningSioux

Camp Fodder
Joined
Feb 24, 2020
Messages
38
Reaction score
20
Points
8
Location
Oregon


Alright.

This thread had/has a purpose and that was to discuss our individual daily experiences during this situation. Politics was not part of that. Admittedly, I have crossed that boundary a time or two myself but that was some time ago and I have left all that at the door since Boone politely pointed it out to me (as he should have). Now I am pointing it out.

As always, everyone is perfectly free to have their own thoughts about the virus and the many responses to it. BGO is not, however, the right forum for the expression of those thoughts. We have learned the hard way that this is just not a good place for politics and it seems that politics lies at the heart of this matter. If discuss it you must, there are plenty of back-water sinkholes and dive-bar forums on the internet that don't just allow that discussion but actively encourage it. As we do not welcome it here, please restrain yourself from going there when visiting here.

Thank you.
except for the fact the entire issue is political. People being made to stay home and wear masks had nothing to do with public safety. Govts have shown they are just following orders and dont care if you live or die poor or with a illness.
lol Thats my take. I'll now do you a favor and not post in the thread. but I think most hav their head in the sand if they dont make the correlation.
whats happening with covid is the same as whats happening with the Redskins name..A complete fabricated construct to promote divide.

have a nice day. I ordered a Redskins cap last night!
found a site no one seems to know about that still has decent models of cap. Not rapper looking gaudy crap
 

Neophyte

GM
Staff member
Joined
Jun 30, 2009
Messages
8,507
Reaction score
160
Points
218
Location
Dallas


The 134-year-old State Fair of Texas announced today that it will not open this fall for the 2020 season due to the current impact of the coronavirus on the greater DFW area. Dallas County, where the State Fair is located, is not #13 in the nation in the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and reportedly close to capacity in area hospitals.
 

MikefromOH

Ring of Fame
Joe Gibbs Club Member
Joined
Jul 16, 2009
Messages
10,775
Reaction score
485
Points
363
Location
The Land

Navy

damn shame....

we are waiting on our local school board to give us the final verdict on the 2020-21 school year and how it is going to go down.

I have ZERO belief that my sons will wear a mask and follow their rules for 8 hours a day. Just no way you ask a 6 and 7 year old to do that and think its legitimate.

If they do a part time in/out thing I need a tutor.
If they do a full time out thing I need a Priest!
 

fansince62

The All-Time Great
Joined
Jul 22, 2009
Messages
16,349
Reaction score
156
Points
343


TX stats are suspect due to change to ctc tracing approach to data gathering.

As for hospital info not enough info.
 

fansince62

The All-Time Great
Joined
Jul 22, 2009
Messages
16,349
Reaction score
156
Points
343


Anyone tracking recent reports that a lot of data in FL has been falsified? Lotta double counting going on.
 

Win4us

Super Bowl MVP
Joe Gibbs Club Member
Joined
Nov 18, 2012
Messages
9,589
Reaction score
203
Points
218
Location
Chugiak, Alaska

Air Force

Anyone tracking recent reports that a lot of data in FL has been falsified? Lotta double counting going on.
I don’t believe Florida is the only one, the #’s are obviously being cooked on the high setting
 

ChiefRunningSioux

Camp Fodder
Joined
Feb 24, 2020
Messages
38
Reaction score
20
Points
8
Location
Oregon


look, are people adults here or not? the guy a while back, telling me I'm not allowed to doubt the narrative and express so, is taking it way too far.
its been proven by the numbers that deaths have entirely decreased and were low to begin with throughout.
your having been a nurse or what ever doesnt have anything to do with it.
I'm not going to hide under my bed over 140,000 deaths in 4 months. only 240 here in Oregon.
so many people have died in nursing homes? well, yeah, they always do. Its a nursing home....
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 1, Members: 0, Guests: 1)

Private conversations
Help Users
    You haven't joined any rooms.
    Chat 0
    Top