Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, The Mock Drafts, 2016 (Continual Updates)

[Burgundy Burner]

BBQ believes that the TE lineup will look like this: Jordan Reed, Niles Paul, Derek Carrier.

 

[Burgundy Burner]

The Kirk Cousins rumors today are just that - rumors. Possibly started by the team. Highly likely that it is a smokescreen. Continue to stay tuned.

Have you noticed that BBQ hasn’t included Jaylon Smith in any mock – even as a player to watch? He has knee and ankle nerve issues. Likely misses all of 2016 – maybe a lot more. How much? Just saying.

Players that have met with the Redskins at the combine? A’Shawn Robinson, Robert Nkemdiche, Jarran Reed, and Noah Spencer. We’ll pass the names along as they become known.

You’ve heard today that two teams are interested in Robert Griffin. The actual number could be four. Will there be a trade? It’s still unlikely, but if Scot could get a seventh rounder (or more) for him, then it is a win for the Redskins.

There could be three teams (maybe more) interested right now in moving up to the twenty-first pick overall. Scot may have some intriguing options.

The Redskins will have $5.8M of their salary cap from 2015 carry over to 2016. They will have $573K of dead cap money. You read those stats correctly. The impact of Scot.

The new salary cap for the NFL has been announced at $155.27M. The Redskins will have an adjusted cap of $161.07M. That makes their current cap $14M to the good.

It should not be lost on any of us that the first four meetings the Redskins have had with prospects at the combine are all defensive linemen.

As Redskins fans, we need to practice patience. This brings up the Morgan Moses debates and the current debates focusing on Matt Jones.
Redskins may have to wait for first-rounder to become a starter | Rich Tandler's Real Redskins

I’ll update throughout the weekend as the combine continues and as time allows.

 

[McD5]

Based on recent comments from Scot, and on where Jones was drafted, I think we are out of any possible bidding for the services of Lamar Miller.

I don't ask for much in life, but now I ask that he doesn't end up in Dallas.

Miller had 1,300 all-purpose yards in Miami last season, and he was barely utilized on that dysfunctional team.

That number could be 1,800 to 2,000 behind that O-line in Dallas.

 

[McD5]

All-Marijuana Team.

These are the NFL prospects I am praying for. Praying that they get busted smoking pot between now and the draft so they fall to us. I'll continue to update this list as time passes.

1. Noah Spence (He seems to prefer ectasy. How about a doobie, Noah?)
2. Jalen Ramsey

 

[Henry]

Morgan Moses is the answer as to why you don't give up on a draft pick after one year. These guys have different trajectories to maturing and becoming major contributors at the NFL level. In his first offseason in Washington, there was concern Moses was light years away from being a contributor let alone a 16 game starter.

Meanwhile, Jones showed flashes of skills, but came crashing to earth as his flaws were on display during that crucial stretch in mid-season which caused the coaches to believe they could not depend upon him to help in the stretch run.

Luckily for him, his flaws are correctable. He can learn the ENTIRE playbook this time around in preparation for 2016. He wasn't mentally prepared for the NFL in 2015. He can learn to hold onto the ball by securing it near his body instead of holding it in one hand out wide when he is making a cut. He can also learn not to overrun his blocking and allowing plays to develop.

Moses is a linemen. Offensive linemen, like WRs, sometimes take a few years to develop and to learn the offense. In fact, I seem to remember going a few rounds with somebody on this board about this, suggesting that that not all late round WRs would be able to come in and start immediately and that we shouldn't just give up on them. Interesting.

In any case, RBs don't usually take that long. RB is a more instinctive position, especially in a power running scheme. You can almost always tell right away if a RB is a starter or not.

Jones ... yes he can learn and improve and fix things. I think if he does he may be a player on the level of Brandon Jacobs. A big man who runs too high and doesn't quite trust his size, but can produce adequately under perfect circumstances.

Personally, I'd rather see what he can do when his primary job is receiving the ball out of the backfield. I think he could make a solid third down back. The fact that he was drafted to be a feature back, and he wasn't one last year, and the team apparently wants to do it all again this year, doesn't fill me with confidence going forward.

As the old saying goes you can't teach size or speed.

You can't teach durability either. Feature RBs take more punishment then anyone else on the field. It's the reason they have such short careers compared to most other positions, and why it is so important that they are able to produce almost immediately. A RB with a history of nagging injuries is a much bigger concern than it would be for players at most other positions.

 

[Boone]

You guys talk like Jones played like a bust last year. He had flashes of 'holy shit' speed and elusiveness, for the first 10 games of the season had the best yards/carry (not great, but better than the other RBs) and then had the fumbling issues. We didn't spend a first round pick on him - he was the 95th pick in the draft. So not sure why we're laying first round expectations on him? We're not talking about Trent Richardson or Melvin Gordon (3rd pick, 15th pick first rounders) here - and even if we were, Matt Jones played better and showed more promise than both of them.

It's obvious (or should be) that our running scheme, and run blocking, are not great. That was true for all of the RBs. Jones was certainly no worse than anyone else out there. And while you make a good point about rookie running backs vs. WRs Henry, the point is, it doesn't negate the fact that sometimes rookies play like rookies. I know you know that, but there are similarities in the tone regarding Jones to what folks were 'certain' about with Moses.

 

[Boone]

All-Marijuana Team.

These are the NFL prospects I am praying for. Praying that they get busted smoking pot between now and the draft so they fall to us. I'll continue to update this list as time passes.

1. Noah Spence (He seems to prefer ectasy. How about a doobie, Noah?)
2. Jalen Ramsey

Yeah - because we really, really need another Sleepy Davis. No thanks!

 

[Henry]

If Jones was drafted to be our feature back last year then, yeah, so far hes a bust. He didnt start.

I dont care where he was drafted. If he was drafted to be the starter and hes not playing like a starter, Im concerned.

And our line may have been awful (apparently only in run blocking) but even if that were the case, Jones should still have been given 250 carries or more ... if he was drafted to be the starter.

That he wasnt is a concern. Whether that concern should be aimed at Jones or the people who put our running game together remains to be seen. But the concern is there nonetheless. In my opinion.

 

[Boone]

He was drafted last year. He was drafted to be the featured back. I'm fine with both those - just not combined (they expected it to happen year 1). You're essentially saying 'you know immediately if a guy IS a feature back'. I think that's wrong. We'll see. I heard the same things about Jordan Reed Henry. And people were wrong. Guy is a star, and it didn't happen in year one.

And I'm not saying 'concern' isn't warranted, either on talent, performance, or durability. I'm just saying one season (especially a rookie one) does not a trend make.

You have a point on Jone's carries. But the Redskins can't win, can they? They supplant a beloved vet with a talented rook and they are heartless, foolish bastards. They split carries and they indecisive, wishy-washy, and inept.

I think Jones would've become the decisive starter had a) he not shown the propensity to fumble, and b) gotten hurt.

 

[Henry]

They cant win if the running game sucks, no. No they cant.

If they started Jones over Morris, or even if they had split carries like they did, and had a top ten running game nobody would complain. Nobody.

When the team is 31st in yards per attempt and comes out and states the guy with the lowest ypc of the group, who also fumbled the ball five times in 144 carries and has battled injury throughout his college and now his pro career, had been the projected starter and will continue to be so going forward ... not thrilling.

 

[Henry]

Oh, and let me add that yes, Jordan Reed had a career year. And it was glorious.

But, he's still an injury-prone guy, isn't he. He wasn't projected to be the starter last year. His was a happy accident. On top of that, Reed still can't freaking block. If I have to hear "number 66 is coming in as an eligible receiver" one more time in my life, I'm going to rip my ears off with a pair if pliers. And I would shocked, shocked I tell you, to learn that we were going to go into next season with the same TE lineup.

I don't have a problem with Jones being on the team. He's not terrible. I think he has a role on this team. If you want to keep Jones on the team and hope for another Happy Accident, that's totally cool. He just hasn't shown anything that suggests he should be pencilled in as the feature back. What troubles me is the suggestion that he's got the inside track on that job. I don't see it. There's just a ton of question marks with the guy.

 

[Boone]

They cant win if the running game sucks, no. No they cant.

If they started Jones over Morris, or even if they had split carries like they did, and had a top ten running game nobody would complain. Nobody.

When the team is 31st in yards per attempt and comes out and states the guy with the lowest ypc of the group, who also fumbled the ball five times in 144 carries and has battled injury throughout his college and now his pro career, had been the projected starter and will continue to be so going forward ... not thrilling.

Jones led the team in yards per carry up until the last quarter of the season, when he developed fumblitis and Almo began getting the bulk of the carries. And while I obviously agree we want a top 10 running game, we won the division and made the playoffs without one. It's a passing league now. You said it earlier - having a great pass catching RB may be just as valuable as the yards rushing.

 

[Boone]

Oh, and let me add that yes, Jordan Reed had a career year. And it was glorious.

But, he's still an injury-prone guy, isn't he. He wasn't projected to be the starter last year. His was a happy accident. On top of that, Reed still can't freaking block. If I have to hear "number 66 is coming in as an eligible receiver" one more time in my life, I'm going to rip my ears off with a pair if pliers. And I would shocked, shocked I tell you, to learn that we were going to go into next season with the same TE lineup.

I don't have a problem with Jones being on the team. He's not terrible. I think he has a role on this team. If you want to keep Jones on the team and hope for another Happy Accident, that's totally cool. He just hasn't shown anything that suggests he should be pencilled in as the feature back. What troubles me is the suggestion that he's got the inside track on that job. I don't see it. There's just a ton of question marks with the guy.

A 'happy accident'? That's ridiculous. Reed was challenged - the same way Alfred Morris was challenged last year. The only difference is, Reed responded and Morris didn't. It became clear (and this is leadership on Gruden's part) that talent level wasn't going to determine starting status - production would. And Reed produced his ass off. Is Reed's durability still a concern? Maybe. Time will tell.

Reed is not a strong blocker. I'm not sure how that's relevant. He's a 'must play' impact offensive threat. Would it be nice if he was a great blocker? Of course. But the point I'm trying to make is that players do develop. Most NFL players have flaws in their games. The rookie season is not definitive. Many can and do improve and address their flaws. If the team sees entrenched starter in Matt Jones I don't know what basis I would have to argue with them? Fumblitis can be addressed. Run schemes can be improved. OLs and run blocking can improve.

Since Gruden got here, conventional fan wisdom has included:

1. Gruden is a prick.
2. This team has benched it's only franchise QB.
3. Joe Barry was a total bust pick as DC.
4. Alfred Morris is a great RB.
5. Kirk Cousins is a turnover machine.
6. The Redskins will be the worst team in the NFC East.
7. Jordan Reed is weak, plays scared, and fragile.
8. Morgan Moses is a bust.
9. Brandon Scherff is a bust.
10. etc....

Most of that wisdom has been flat out proven wrong. Some of those may still be hotly debated.

So I'm just saying, we all have opinions, and that's what this place is for. But we're also frequently dead wrong.

Just out of curiousity, who do you think SHOULD have the inside track on the starting job if not Jones?

 

[Henry]

A 'happy accident'? That's ridiculous. Reed was challenged - the same way Alfred Morris was challenged last year. The only difference is, Reed responded and Morris didn't. It became clear (and this is leadership on Gruden's part) that talent level wasn't going to determine starting status - production would. And Reed produced his ass off. Is Reed's durability still a concern? Maybe. Time will tell.

Reed's situation was completely different. He wasn't even slated as the starter going into the season, and then the two other starting-quality TEs both went out for the year before the season started. Given the injuries and how late in the offseason they occurred, Reed was literally the only TE on the roster who could have been considered starting-quality in any sense of the imagination. He was given a wonderful opportunity, and good for him for taking advantage of it. But that's nothing like the RB situation.

I get your point, but I don't think Reed's is particularly relevant to that of Jones. The big knock on Reed throughout his entire time here has been his fragility. When he was on the field as a rookie he averaged 5 receptions and 55.4 yards a game. That projects out to 80 catches for 880 yards, which is pretty darn close to what he had this year when he didn't get hurt. With Jones there are a lot more question marks, and he plays a position where there should be fewer.

But the point I'm trying to make is that players do develop. Most NFL players have flaws in their games. The rookie season is not definitive. Many can and do improve and address their flaws. If the team sees entrenched starter in Matt Jones I don't know what basis I would have to argue with them? Fumblitis can be addressed. Run schemes can be improved. OLs and run blocking can improve.

That is a LOT of things that need to improve, though. I'd be more confident if it were just, like, one thing.

What basis would i argue with our front office? Well, they produced an abysmally horrible run game last year, for starters. Their running game looked like a disjointed mess and was terrible. I think that's a pretty solid basis.

Was Jones the problem last year? Was it scheme? The OL? All of it?

Who knows? If the powers that be have suggested Jones WASN'T the problem, it must have been something else, right? That doesn't make me feel much better. And that's been my point. Not that Jones sucks.

Since Gruden got here, conventional fan wisdom has included:

1. Gruden is a prick.
2. This team has benched it's only franchise QB.
3. Joe Barry was a total bust pick as DC.
4. Alfred Morris is a great RB.
5. Kirk Cousins is a turnover machine.
6. The Redskins will be the worst team in the NFC East.
7. Jordan Reed is weak, plays scared, and fragile.
8. Morgan Moses is a bust.
9. Brandon Scherff is a bust.
10. etc....

Most of that wisdom has been flat out proven wrong. Some of those may still be hotly debated.

So I'm just saying, we all have opinions, and that's what this place is for. But we're also frequently dead wrong.

Sure. Gruden's proven me wrong a couple times already. He could do it again.

Just out of curiousity, who do you think SHOULD have the inside track on the starting job if not Jones?

Someone else? My choice would be a draft pick. I certainly wouldn't stand pat with Jones and Thompson and think I have a starting lineup locked up. I think it's fine to hope that Jones develops into a great starter but I certainly wouldn't announce that was part of my big plan for the run game.

 

[Boone]

I don't find anything very disagreeable in your position H. I would just argue that we DID draft one - Matt Jones, and unlike guys other teams spent high draft picks on, I'm betting he becomes a productive, reliable, maybe even explosive back. I trust McCloughan's assessment that this guy was a third round steal over other teams who clearly reached for guys who aren't even solid starters yet. I think we need to give Jones more than one year before making a 'full assessment' - that's all.

I see the Reed situation differently. He was the obvious best TE on this team and I'm sure the coaches knew it. They were going to go with Niles Paul and others to show that the TE producing and working hardest would start. I think Reed got the message and it showed. He was never considered the 3rd best TE on this team. None of that is really even relevant, just arguing that players with the proper motivation, desire, and coaching can turn into guys we never thought they could. The only limiting factor is talent - and that's where Jones has a major leg up on Alfred.

Ultimately - if Jones can't hold onto the ball consistently or stay healthy, you all are right - he can't be relied on. But you can't make a call on either of those fronts after a rookie season.

 

[TomE]

Just for kicks decided to review Jones' fumbles in situ.

Rams game- MOJO combo were gashing all day, Jones breaks through the line into the secondary with a full head of steam, his arm grabbed and the ball pops out.

Giants game- Jones' goes airborne for the TD, hand pokes out exposed ball mid air, rolls through the end zone for a touch back.

Pat's game- Ball pops out at the line of scrimmage.

Carolina- Jones' fumble with score still respectable in mid 2nd qtr. started the whole mess going really bad.

Bears- tip pass off Reed, Jones catches it, thinks he's down, lets the ball go..... recovers his own fumble.

First two were effort things gone bad... rookie stuff early in the year.
Second two were just bad.
Last one doesn't count in my book....but still bonehead rookie stuff late in the year

 

[Boone]

On an unrelated note, quick shout out to Ken (Burgundy Burner) for his amazing updates and research. Some of the best stuff you will find anywhere on where the Redskins are looking, where they might go in Free Agency and the draft. We don't thank him enough.

So hey BB? Thanks brother!

 

[TomE]

Yer absolutely right Boone
Thx BB

 

[Henry]

Yes, sorry. I didn't mean to sully BB's awesome thread with my negativity. It really is great work.

 

[Boone]

Sir Henry - you wouldn't know 'sully' if it walked up and bit you in the ass my friend. You are class, smarts, and dignity embodied.

I dig you.

Myself - I could use some work