Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, The Mock Drafts, 2016 (Continual Updates)

McD5 said:
Someone to compete with Matt Jones, or someone to compete with Chris Thompson? Not an easy call.
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Er, I'd say neither.

We need someone to take Morris' spot. We need the workhorse.
 
Speaking of going off on tangents, I will do the same here. As mentioned earlier, I try to be objective in these blogs, but will add my own opinions on occasion. This is one of those times.

Again, you can disagree with my thoughts or trash them as you see fit. It's just opinions and nothing more.

Ok...

I don't think we go after Miller, but I don't rule it out if he comes at the right price. I think a few of the pundits are over-valuing the market for FA running backs overall. We'll see what happens. Is $4.5 M to $5M too much for a RB? Maybe. Maybe not. The huge jump in the salary cap this year and over the next two or three years will make the Trent Williams and Ryan Kerrigan contracts look like huge bargains. Just saying.

I think Alfred is finished at the NFL level. He'll probably get a vet minimum contract or just above it. I also think he will be waived at some point during the regular season. He could get picked up late in the season by someone if they have injuries to their own backs.

He would likely get waived after the season and try to catch on with another team in 2018 training camp. He never makes it to the final cuts and his career is over.

Again, my opinion. Why? As mentioned earlier, look at the history of Shanahan/Turner running backs. One, two, three years at most before they are too battered, bruised, or injured and can no longer continue their careers. Keep a close watch on Devonta Freeman. I'm predicting one more good season for him and then it will be over.

I agree with Henry that we need a workhorse. I see Matt Jones as a third down back and as someone who relieves the starter. I like what Chris Thompson did in 2015, but he is still injury prone.

I don't see Silas Redd as a fit in the new system. Yes, he was chosen/signed by Bruce and Jay, but that was as a fit for the ZBS - a system that the new regime continued (mostly for Morris). Going to the power scheme changes his status. Also, it didn't help that he was busted for the NFL substance abuse policy late in the season. Scot will bid him farewell and good riddance.

That is why I think one RB is chosen in the draft and another is added as an UDFA. Maybe more. FAs? I doubt it, but you never know.

One thing is certain. If it plays out this way, and I think it will, we have a heck of a third down/relief back in Matt Jones. Will these steps ameliorate the running back woes? Who knows? It's time to move forward and see.
 
I think it depends on the talent level of the RB and how they are able to adapt to changing conditions/situations. It also depends on staying in excellent shape, imho. Look at AP, Forte, and Lynch as recent examples.

But there is something about the Shanahan/Turner system that screams "short shelf life" to any prospective RB. I haven't done any studies, but that could be the case for any ZBS.
 
Fear The Spear said:
Seems like the career span of an NFL RB is becoming much shorter than it used to be.
Is that my imagination, or is it fact ?
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The average career for an NFL running back is less than three years. 2.57 actually.

That's not new though, it's been accepted data for as long as I can remember. Which is why I generally don't favor spending a buttload on ANY running back. I suppose if you fall into a homegrown (drafted) Jim Brown, or an Adrian Peterson, maybe even a John Riggins, and you have to pony up one big-money FA deal, you do it. But those guys are so rare that to me they actually support that proposition.

Can't imagine ever paying a RB huge FA money. For one, you're by default getting a guy who will have played beyond the average expected lifespan of an NFL RB. Also, you're getting a guy who is coming to a new system, with different OL, scheme, etc., and there is zero guarantee he'll be the same player he was at the first stop.

As my own observation has convinced me, no position in the NFL sees guys 'hit the wall' more suddenly, and earlier, than running back. I say no on Miller unless he 1) comes at a price much lower than expected and 2) Scot and Jay are in love with the guy's skill set and 3) the man is a workaholic and total team guy.

I think we're safe.
 
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Om said:
The average career for an NFL running back is less than three years. 2.57 actually.

That's not new though, it's been accepted data for as long as I can remember.
Click to expand...

Om, wouldn't you say that changes in the game, over the years and decades, has made that number less, over time ?
Two things come to mind. The game has become faster and more physically brutal. That means more physical punishment on player who carries the ball about 15-20 times a game, thus wearing him out quicker.
Also, the competition. As the game evolves, players develop ways to get more of an edge (both within and outside of the rules) over their competition.
They become innovative in their training, finding new ways to improve their overall skillset. This increases competition, leaving less room for imperfections,
and thus bumping out players due to the heavier competition for their positions.
Just a theory. Or theories.
 
No argument with any of that.

Plus the game itself has changed so much. It's a passing league now, meaning backs need to develop skills that really weren't as pressing back in the day ... pass blocking and pass receiving in particular ... and those that don't or can't get pushed aside quickly in favor of someone who can do them better. I'm not sure how much prep most running backs get in those areas in college these days.

I keep thinking about those 1078 carries. You get hit and thrown to the ground a thousand-plus times, often by multiple guys at a time, at the pace and level of violence inherent in today's game, and your body is going to feel the effects.
 
Let's keep in mind that that chart also says the average career of ANY player is only 3.3 years.

The RB career span in on par with CBs and WRs apparently.

Now I would assume that more CBs and WRs wash out, while more RBs wear out. But still, good RBs do last longer than 3 or 4 years. And yes, I'd be wary of signing another team's RB, but I don't think it's quite as stark as Om's initial post makes out.
 
For what it's worth, Om's initial post simply posts a statistic. I guess one man's stark is another man's data point. :)
 
Om said:
For what it's worth, Om's initial post simply posts a statistic. I guess one man's stark is another man's data point. :)
Click to expand...

Did you just ... refer to yourself in the third person? :)

Actually I wasn't going to chime in at all about that tangent, because I thought that chart was a great find and I largely agree with your post. I just noticed the direction of the conversation was starting to go down the 'running backs don't last as long as they used to' route. I'm not sure that's the case. That's all I was saying.

I'm out!
 
BBQ’s Comeback Player Of The Year, 2016​

Let’s have a little bit of fun on this middle of February Thursday. Today we look at who will be the Redskins comeback player of the year for 2016. There are several candidates and BBQ will take a look and present what we think will happen.

We will include Junior Galette in these predictions even though he is a free agent. It is a given that he re-signs with the Redskins. We will not include Silas Redd and Andre Roberts as they are very likely to be released.

Feel free to offer your own list and predictions. Let’s get right to it.

The Candidates:

Chris Culliver
Junior Galette
Ryan Grant
DeAngelo Hall
DeSean Jackson
Niles Paul
Jackson Jeffcoat
Jeron Johnson
Kory Lichtensteiger
Trent Murphy
Perry Riley
Stephen Paea

Quickly Eliminated:

We quickly eliminate candidates from the aforementioned list as any one of these could be waived, have reduced roles, or simply hit a performance ceiling in BBQ’s estimation.

Ryan Grant
DeAngelo Hall
Jackson Jeffcoat
Jeron Johnson
Kory Lichtensteiger
Perry Riley

The Case For Remaining Candidates:

Chris Culliver – He could actually be cut if the Redskins address his position in free agency and/or the draft. His injury may delay his start to the season and even have a significant and lingering effect. We can’t rule out coming back and having a great 2016.
Verdict: Eliminated from consideration

Junior Galette – He is scheduled to return from an achilles tear and it could affect how he plays until returning to form. He has been at the top in recent years and it is likely that Galette has a solid 2016.
Verdict: Remains a candidate

DeSean Jackson – Assuming that he can stay healthy, Jackson is a serious contender for this BGO-BBQ honor. Also, he will need to devote his time and efforts to the offseason programs. BBQ has concerns about that kind of commitment from him.
Verdict: Eliminated from consideration

Niles Paul – His season was over before it began, but there was a lot of promise. He will need to overcome that injury and the first clues will come in the offseason programs. Having Jordan Reed continue his success and a healthy Paul back makes many of us salivate.
Verdict: Remains a candidate

Trent Murphy – What position will he play? OLB? DE? We need more information, but if reports are true about him adding some bulk and playing DE, then Murphy could have a special 2016. The uncertainty hold us back a bit.
Verdict: Eliminated from consideration

Stephen Paea – Will Paea overcome his injury woes and lackluster 2015? BBQ believes that he will, but this is a “prove it” league and he could be ushered out the front door in early 2017. While we think he will be vastly improved and make great strides in 2016, the case against him leans to just falling short of our bestowed honor.
Verdict: Eliminated from consideration

We honestly think Murphy, Paea, and Jackson will have a great 2016 and it made the choices very difficult.

Now it comes down to Niles Paul and Junior Galette.


BBQ’s Choice For Comeback Player Of The Year, 2016​

Junior Galette has been a special player over the last few seasons and he will likely have a fantastic 2016. We could see a bit of rust at first, but he should quickly regain his form. It is a definite positive that Galette loves the Redskins and his heart is intent on making an impact for the team. We love that attitude.

Niles Paul has done everything that the team asked of him since his arrival. He switched from being a wide receiver and did what was necessary to make that transition. He became a special teams stud when asked to do so. He was expected to make a greater impact as a tight end and took that next step. We love that attitude.

It’s a difficult choice. One thing tipped the scales in this player’s favor – his time with the team.

The BBQ Comeback Player Of The Year For 2016…

Niles Paul

It was not an easy decision. Several of these players are worthy of consideration. Let’s hope for a great 2016 from all of them.

Hail To The Redskins!
 
I'll go with Galette because he is the only one of those two who could make a difference that would be noticed by the casual observer. Paul's contributions will be felt primarily on special teams and along the line. I expect his targets to be less than he was used to with the emergence of Reed as a primary threat.
 
If he was on the list I would take Shawn Lauvao. Since he's not tho my fingers crossed for Trent Murphy. Thought I heard he was gonna be moved to another spot on D too.

Ginger power!
 
I thought I was out, but you keep pulling me back in. And Boone likes his chicken spicy.
 
I think Jackson knows that 2016 will be his last season in Washington and he and the team are OK with that given his cap number.

That said, if Kirk Cousins is the real deal and comes back strong in 2016 Jackson is likely to put up historical numbers for the organization. He may never be a 100 catch receiver because of his style of play and value down the field, but he is capable of a 1,400 yard season and 10-14 touchdowns given Jordan Reed on the field at the same time drawing the defenses attention.

On defense, to me there is no question Gallette is the only player that has the talent to make that much of a 'surprise' difference in 2016 to be a candidate as a comebacker.

I thought Preston Smith came on strong last year and at 6'5 and 270 has the size to be a threat on passing downs from a line position as well as an OLB position.

He and Gallette working on one side of the defense on long yardage downs could wreak havoc on offenses.

Division rivals New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles Achilles' heel on offense is the lack of talent overall on the OL.

That's where we could have a clear advantage in 2016.
 
The combine starts this Wednesday. Wednesday and Thursday are simply interview days, and players will actually hit the field on Friday. Here are a few thoughts and some players to watch.

The Redskins will be looking to upgrade their defense during the first two days of the draft, particularly at defensive tackle. Brugler believes it’s the deepest position in the draft, and Washington currently will enter free agency with both of its nose tackles hitting the market as unrestricted free agents – Terrance Knighton and Kedric Golston. The Redskins own the 21st overall selection in the first round, but Brugler believes there’s value in the later rounds at linebacker, cornerback, wide receiver, center and quarterback as well. So McCloughan can find a productive player beyond Day 1.

There will be a few first-round prospects to watch at the NFL combine who should still be available when the Redskins are on the clock. Certain mock drafts have paired the Redskins with Nkemdiche, Baylor nose tackle Andrew Billings, Alabama defensive linemen A’Shawn Robinson and Jarran Reed and Clemson cornerback Mackensie Alexander. The Redskins had previous luck with a Clemson cornerback, Bashaud Breeland, during the 2014 draft. Breeland’s measurements compare to Alexander, who was listed last year at 5 feet 11 and 195 pounds.

“[Alexander] lacks ideal size and didn’t have any interceptions in his two seasons at Clemson, but that’s mostly because teams didn’t throw at him,” Brugler said. “They stayed away from his side of the field. The measurements will be the first test for Alexander, will he hit the 5-10 mark or is he shorter? He reminds me of a smaller version of [Panthers cornerback] Josh Norman, but the lack of size could push him to the Redskins at No. 21.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...l-be-trying-to-accomplish-at-the-nfl-combine/
 
BB, any guess as to whether Scot would even interview Greg Hardy? He seems like a huge problem, but that hasn't stopped Scot in the past.

I haven't heard any rumors yet, but his base salary in Dallas last year was only something like $600k plus bonuses.

I won't be shocked if we bring him in.
 
I wouldn't mind watching him get owned again by our OLine.

Aside from that, I never want him close to a Redskins uniform.
 
Greg Hardy would be to this Scot McCloughan Redskins team what the Chicxulub asteroid was to the Cretaceous.
 
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