BGO Draft Chat

[Goaldeje]

The other thing to factor into this discussion is the uncertainty regarding free agency and the lockout. Not knowing what is going to happen and when it will happen, and who will be FAs and who wont be means that we SHOULD be relying more on the draft. Picking up depth through the draft while being unsure about how FA is going to work is probably not a bad idea.
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[fansince62]

Al, are you and John under the impression that starting lineups on good teams are built almost entirely with first and second rounders?
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no sir. just going strictly by probability theory.

it's not worth fighting over pard. we're doing ok. and I agree that this is an improvement over past years in which the team seemed to routinely defer to the knucklehead theory of roster management.

 

[fansince62]

The other thing to factor into this discussion is the uncertainty regarding free agency and the lockout. Not knowing what is going to happen and when it will happen, and who will be FAs and who wont be means that we SHOULD be relying more on the draft. Picking up depth through the draft while being unsure about how FA is going to work is probably not a bad idea.
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credible point. to which one could respond it is even more important to draft starters.

in the event...as noted to Henry...this isn't a hail mary...horrendous draft. we're doing...at least on paper...ok. per the usual...we won't know for a year or two.

 

[Burgundy Burner]

Three rounds down and I'd say that we have three quality starters at this juncture. That is fantastic.

Now we have a chance to add a lot of depth and one or two surprise possible starters.

Two things are obvious. We have a true football staff running things and they are making this draft a real success. We no longer have a clown and a stooge who would've taken three receivers with those three picks.

On to rounds four through seven.

 

[Henry]

no sir. just going strictly by probability theory.

it's not worth fighting over pard. we're doing ok. and I agree that this is an improvement over past years in which the team seemed to routinely defer to the knucklehead theory of roster management.

Fair enough.
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[Goaldeje]

Extract is on. Getting distracted.
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[Burgundy Burner]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/29/redskins-take-a-new-approach/

Redskins take a new approach

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal on April 29, 2011, 9:16 PM EDT

Year after year, you can count on the Redskins signing a lot of free agents. And lacking draft picks.

Mike Shanahan finally broke the trend this year. By trading down from No. 10 to No. 16 in the first round, the Redskins picked up extra picks and then leveraged those picks to pick up more in a series of trades down.

All in all, the Redskins have picked up five extra draft picks thus far. While they all won’t work out, this is exactly what the Redskins need. The team has one of the thinnest rosters in the league, bereft of young quality talent at nearly every position.

This approach may not make sense for every team every year, but it’s the perfect way to go for the 2011 Redskins. And it’s something they simply haven’t done in the past.

 

[Boone]

Boone, you seriously doubt a 4th or 5th rounder will make the cut?

EDIT: and you don't see how our past draft strategy has affected our approach to FA and vice versa?

This is Boone, right?

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Obviously it's affected where we are - that's not the topic of conversation though H. I'm simply saying that you reach a point of diminishing returns in trade downs. I'm a little puzzled at how you reconcile what's historically been a pathetic ability to find value in the later rounds by the Redskins with the wisdom of trading down into them repeatedly.

 

[Boone]

Boone, I see your point but the problem I have is the fact that we were so crippled coming into this draft that without getting extra picks we might have gotten 2 starters and maybe a couple of backups at best and that's being optimistic.

That's exactly what we should have gotten though serv. I think the choice here was 1 or 2 starters and a bunch of training camp fodder, or 3-4 starters. I'd pick 3-4 starters as my preference all day long. I was fine with the first 2 trade downs. After that, I think it's a very shaky proposition. You guys have talked a lot about Shanahan's limitations as a talent evaluator. I think those skills really get tested in the later rounds.

Our 2011 draft was blown a long time ago to a certain extent. Trading down to get a bunch of 3rd day picks seems like an exercise in futility to me. I'd have rather we take the best offensive lineman on the board with our 3rd pick and congratulate ourselves on a solid draft.

I'm going to be watching carefully how many of these guys beyond our top 3 picks make this team.

 

[stevenaa]

How long have we bitched about getting some late round picks to develop? We'll need both them and higher round picks to get respectable. Gonna take several years. Seems like getting the lower round guys sooner gives them a little extra time to grow. Pick up some higher round starters next year, and hopefully both classes come on at about the same time. Assuming some of the lower rounders work out. And as too our past success with late round failures, we can only hope this change in philosophy is accompanied by much better drafting success. If not, the argument for putting more stock in drafting over free agents is moot anyway. So far, I like what I'm seeing.

 

[Yusuf06]

That's exactly what we should have gotten though serv. I think the choice here was 1 or 2 starters and a bunch of training camp fodder, or 3-4 starters. I'd pick 3-4 starters as my preference all day long. I was fine with the first 2 trade downs. After that, I think it's a very shaky proposition. You guys have talked a lot about Shanahan's limitations as a talent evaluator. I think those skills really get tested in the later rounds.

Our 2011 draft was blown a long time ago to a certain extent. Trading down to get a bunch of 3rd day picks seems like an exercise in futility to me. I'd have rather we take the best offensive lineman on the board with our 3rd pick and congratulate ourselves on a solid draft.

I'm going to be watching carefully how many of these guys beyond our top 3 picks make this team.

I hear you Bro. However try to look at the bright side. It looks like we have three solid starters with zero off-field baggage, no injury issues, and all very coachable. In addition, by virtue of the multiple trade downs we also have a very good shot at finding an interior lineman and a rotational/depth guy or two. In essence what we've done is accepted the need for quantity over quality while increasing our chances of getting a hit or two in the mid rounds. Note that I'm writing off anything after the 5th.

Assuming we hold on to Jammal Brown, our OL problems are on the interior. I think it's highly likely we find a serviceable G or C with the number of picks we have to throw at it.

I think we reached for Jenkins in a big way, but looking at the big picture I like what we've done so far. Next year we can look at swinging for the fences on a franchise QB or a stud RB or WR. Right now we've simply got to concentrate on getting a core of enough solid, reliable players to advance to being a mediocre team.

 

[fansince62]

That's exactly what we should have gotten though serv. I think the choice here was 1 or 2 starters and a bunch of training camp fodder, or 3-4 starters. I'd pick 3-4 starters as my preference all day long. I was fine with the first 2 trade downs. After that, I think it's a very shaky proposition. You guys have talked a lot about Shanahan's limitations as a talent evaluator. I think those skills really get tested in the later rounds.

Our 2011 draft was blown a long time ago to a certain extent. Trading down to get a bunch of 3rd day picks seems like an exercise in futility to me. I'd have rather we take the best offensive lineman on the board with our 3rd pick and congratulate ourselves on a solid draft.

I'm going to be watching carefully how many of these guys beyond our top 3 picks make this team.

basically how I feel about it. in some ways this is an apples/oranges conversation. our focus is on starters...others are weighting depth more heavily. in the event...we can all agree that...so far...this is better fare than we have experienced in Redskin drafts of the past. one day, we can all hope that the manipulation reaches the skill level where the mushrooming all happens in rounds 1, 2 and 3.

 

[fansince62]

I hear you Bro. However try to look at the bright side. It looks like we have three solid starters with zero off-field baggage, no injury issues, and all very coachable. In addition, by virtue of the multiple trade downs we also have a very good shot at finding an interior lineman and a rotational/depth guy or two. In essence what we've done is accepted the need for quantity over quality while increasing our chances of getting a hit or two in the mid rounds. Note that I'm writing off anything after the 5th.

Assuming we hold on to Jammal Brown, our OL problems are on the interior. I think it's highly likely we find a serviceable G or C with the number of picks we have to throw at it.

I think we reached for Jenkins in a big way, but looking at the big picture I like what we've done so far. Next year we can look at swinging for the fences on a franchise QB or a stud RB or WR. Right now we've simply got to concentrate on getting a core of enough solid, reliable players to advance to being a mediocre team.

a reasonable thought process...though I would add that Redskin history over the last 18 years does not inspire confidence in the notion that we can discover offensive line talent in the mid to late rounds.

 

[Henry]

Obviously it's affected where we are - that's not the topic of conversation though H. I'm simply saying that you reach a point of diminishing returns in trade downs. I'm a little puzzled at how you reconcile what's historically been a pathetic ability to find value in the later rounds by the Redskins with the wisdom of trading down into them repeatedly.

The affect of trading away draft picks is absolutely part of the conversation. It's actually a pretty huge factor, in my opinion.

I understand the point of diminishing returns. However, the way you are talking it seems like you don't think it's possible to find decent talent past the third round. I strongly disagree with that point. A successful team, in my opinion, absolutely HAS to be able to get something out of the later rounds. At LEAST rounds four and five. You just can't ignore those rounds and expect to field a team. We've done that ... for a long time. It doesn't work.

One reason, the big reason in my opinion, for our pathetic ability to find talent in those mid rounds is due to the fact that we never have a lot of mid-round picks. The only times over the past ten years that this team has had a any amount of picks in a draft was when we had a ton of 6th and 7th rounders. That's not the case this time. I can't remember the last time we had so many picks in the first 5 rounds. I know we haven't had this many since Casserly left. We can't really say this team can't make mid-round picks if we never have them.

The bottom line is I'm sick of watching this team assume that picks after the first two or three rounds are worthless. That's the attitude that got us where we are now. And frankly, if our front office is flat-out incapable of finding any value past round two we're gonna suck. Period. Draft strategy won't matter. So I don't expect a team, any team, to go into a draft with the mentality that there's no point in looking past round two. That's an admission of defeat. Defeat we've seen over and over here in DC.

 

[fansince62]

The affect of trading away draft picks is absolutely part of the conversation. It's actually a pretty huge factor, in my opinion.

I understand the point of diminishing returns. However, the way you are talking it seems like you don't think it's possible to find decent talent past the third round. I strongly disagree with that point. A successful team, in my opinion, absolutely HAS to be able to get something out of the later rounds. At LEAST rounds four and five. You just can't ignore those rounds and expect to field a team. We've done that ... for a long time. It doesn't work.

One reason, the big reason in my opinion, for our pathetic ability to find talent in those mid rounds is due to the fact that we never have a lot of mid-round picks. The only times over the past ten years that this team has had a any amount of picks in a draft was when we had a ton of 6th and 7th rounders. That's not the case this time. I can't remember the last time we had so many picks in the first 5 rounds. I know we haven't had this many since Casserly left. We can't really say this team can't make mid-round picks if we never have them.

The bottom line is I'm sick of watching this team assume that picks after the first two or three rounds are worthless. That's the attitude that got us where we are now. And frankly, if a our front office is flat-out incapable of finding any value past round two we're gonna suck. Period. Draft strategy won't matter. So I don't expect a team, any team, to go into a draft with the mentality that there's no point in looking past round two. That's an admission of defeat. Defeat we've seen over and over here in DC.

the problem for the Skins has mostly been exorbitant FA costs and huge FA personnel mistakes. The FA/trade strategy limited resources and cost high draft picks.

the ideal is what the Pats practice - creating the margin such that the team can maneuver in any direction it pleases (drafting or trading current wealth (picks) for future wealth (higher picks)). also, the Pats concentrate that strategy mostly in the high rounds. there is a path to quantity AND quality.

 

[fansince62]

let's be clear on one thing...in the end....we all want this to succeed...no matter what the strategy.

 

[Burgundy Burner]

For those of you who are not a big fan of what happened earlier tonight, let's keep in mind that Coach Shanahan has this uncanny ability to find very good OL talent and solid RBs in the middle rounds. We have a 4th and four picks in the 5th. Just throwing that out there.

Edited to add this quote from the coach...
“Obviously you want as many picks as possibly can,” Shanahan said. “It worked out good for us today. We’ve got a number of picks left with a lot of players we have rated pretty high.”

Yes, we have one in the 6th and another four in the 7th. But with five picks in those last two rounds, we could find one more gem in the bunch.

Take what we have done with the first three picks and this could be the best draft that the Redskins have had since the early 1980s. One thing is certain though. With the stockpiling of so many picks, it appears as if Coach Shanahan is making a long term commitment to the Redskins.

Take this for what it is worth, but I see all of this as nothing but a positive.

 

[Chris]

It's been a pleasure to read the intelligent, reasoned, football talk in this thread.

Thank you.

 

[Goaldeje]

Huh. That's weird. Chris must have me on his ignore list. Wonder what I did?
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[Neophyte]

I've been thinking about this overnight and reached the conclusion that I lost sight of all the reports that this draft is deep, deeper than any draft in some time. If you go look at the list of guys still on the board, there are still fellows with high second round grades. Between those guys and the ones with solid 3rd round grades you can fill the 4th round and get into the 5th.

So it is possible that in the 4th we might get what would have been a 3rd round guy in previous years and with one or two of those early 5th rounders get guys who were low 3rd or 4th round picks. Granted, this all presupposes that our scouts and talent evaluators have a damn clue what they are doing but it is possible.

While this team has a history of not doing well in the later rounds, the guys making the recommendations and the guys making the decisions on those players are now largely different. I guess what I am trying to say is that while I was worried yesterday, I am working at keeping an open mind today and will give the team the benefit of the doubt till start cutting the guys they picked.