2024 - Way too early draft thread

I recently posted my film review on every LSU offensive play from their game (a loss) to Alabama last November. I did so to educate myself on one Jayden Daniels.

I just finished my 1st half silent film review 😉 of the #5 Tigers vs #8 FSU Seminoles season opener (a loss).

I chose these two games because they are the best defenses that Daniels faced (FSU being the best).

I will post my thoughts upon completion of the game. But, ***spoiler alert***, unless something extraordinary takes place in the 2nd half, not much is going to change from my preceding opinions.
 
I still think it is Caleb Williams - Drake Maye - Jayden Daniels in the order among the 3.

Michael Penix Jr. to me is the wildcard and a possible dark horse to be the guy everyone wished they drafted 2 or 3 years from now.
 
I mentioned before. Penix has already had 2 torn ACLs. That seems like it might be kind of a big deal
 
True. I don't think Penix will be drafted until the teens to early 20's in the draft.

He won't be taken in the top 8-10 picks.

But he had the most to overcome and took a 'yesteryear' team in the University of Washington to the national title game. I remember when UW used to be a 'real' program in the 1980's when it regularly sent players to the NFL in the draft and went to major bowl games.

Terry Allen had two ACLs and still rushed for 1,000 yards several times in the NFL after the injury and he was a lot older than Penix at a position where wear and tear is a lot more of a factor at the next level.

Remember when Jonathan Allen was supposed to be a top 5 pick and then a medical report got released saying he had some shoulder issues which would likely impact the longevity and productivity of his NFL career?

We got a steal at #17. It was one of the few real value picks this team made in the draft in the past decade.

If we are going to trade down I would try and recoup a bevy of picks and try and pickup Penix in the 15-22 range.
 
Rumors of a shoulder injury and two documented ACL repairs aren’t even remotely comparable. I’m not saying he can’t overcome that but it’s the NFL and drafting him in the first couple rounds would be a huge risk.
 
Agree with Boone. Given the injury rate of QBs in this league you don't want to start with a QB who has that kind of history. His tendons may be weak and more susceptible to tearing than someone without his history.
 
Just a tiny glimpse into what I have seen watching Jayden. 2nd play is from the 1st half of the game vs FSU.

 
Again, I think Daniels is the #3 in the grouping with Williams and Maye.

I really hope the Patriots take him at #3 and we can leave Jerrod Mayo with the responsibility of keeping him upright in the NFL for 17 games.
 
I will now conclude my evaluation of Jayden Daniels after watching every LSU offensive snap in the CFB season opener between #5 LSU & #8 FSU. That FSU defense is undoubtedly (to me) the best he faced in 2023, loaded with mean dawgs across the board. It is also pertinent to point out that the LSU offense is stacked with future high-level NFL talent at the skill positions. Malik Nabers (consensus high #1 pick), Brian Johnson Jr (consensus late #1/ early #2 pick), and sophomore TE Mason Taylor, who looks like a future NFL star. (Fun fact- HOFer Jason Taylor is his father, HOFer Zach Thomas is his uncle. Talk about blood lines.)

Now, onto Mr. Daniels. (Much of this will resemble a cut & paste from my earlier eval. It is not.

1. A predominantly one-read QB. Though he shows acceptable patience in the pocket, he rarely moves off his first read.
2. He has tremendous running ability, like a gazelle, but has the mental attitude of a kamikaze pilot and seems completely unconcerned about the dangers out there. Tough young man who needs to smarten up in that area.
3. Totally adequate arm strength for an NFL QB though not elite.
4. I wouldn’t call him particularly accurate and does miss wide-open receivers more than he should.
5. It takes very little contact to get him to the ground. The trick for defenses it to contact him. Not easy. But when grown-ass men do, it reminds me of a rag doll.

Passing stats- 22-37 (59%), 346 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int. 130 of those yards came on 2 plays: throw back wheel route for 55 yards on the games 1st play & 75 yds for a TD (25 in the air) with 1:15 remaining in the game and LSU losing 45-17.

Running stats- 15/64 (4.26 ypc) with a long of 40 yds. Minus the long gain- 14/24 (1.71)

In summary- Jayden Daniels both intrigues and scares the hell out of me. As a skinny guy myself…he is a skinny guy. I would be very worried about his wellbeing in the NFL where defensive players are smarter, stronger, faster, and more talented than in CFB.

Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.

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Thanks for the breakdown, Chris. Reading that reinforces the idea that we should stay away. Heck, I'd rather stick with Howell than roll the dice on Daniels.
 
A rumor floating around now is that we draft Marvin Harrison and trade a second for Justin Fields. Obviously I’m in the draft Drake Maye camp and believe he is the best option. This could just be the regular pre-draft chatter and there will be plenty more. I’m gonna just trust that Adam and the boys will do what’s best.
 
That's just one of those national media speculations that have no basis in fact. I doubt they rate Justin Fields above Sam Howell at this point.
 
I don't like Justin Fields at all. I think he is a guy that will have a shorter NFL career due to his continued reliance on his feet rather than his arm.

I don't see him as ever being the kind of playmaking quarterback who can play under control and with discipline like Mahomes, Jackson or the other mobile qbs out there.
 
I'm not that high on Fields, but I do think he has a lot of talent that hasn't been fully developed. He's shown some flashes of brilliance and the last two years, he's had some games where he looked like a franchise QB. In fact he was 9th in MVP voting in 2022. He just hasn't been consistent and he's also taken quite a beating. Let me ask you all a question. Would you trade Montez Sweat for Justin Fields. Because if they send a 2nd to Chicago, that's essentially what it amounts to. Even if they send their own pick, it's the 36th pick to Chicago for fields, and it was the 40th pick returned for Sweat. So just a few spots lower in the 2nd round. I think I would make that trade if I wasn't sold on one of the top QBs in the draft.

Now, the problem I see with that rumor, is that I wouldn't draft Harrison in that scenario. I'd trade back with a team looking to take a QB or maybe even grab Harrison. The Chargers at 6 may want Harrison and the Falcons at 8 need a QB. So if this scenario is actually valid, I would rather see them move back and then take one of the top Left Tackles in the draft.
 
Boone said:
That's just one of those national media speculations that have no basis in fact. I doubt they rate Justin Fields above Sam Howell at this point.
Click to expand...
Certainly not if you add the cost of the player to the equation. Fields will require a new contract. I think he's on his option year. Trading a second for Fields would be as dangerous as trading a second rounder for Donovan McNabb.
 
Howell showed flashes of brilliance in his first full season. I think some of us are remembering the Justin Fields we got in our Thursday night humilation. That's not the Justin Fields Chicago fans mostly got to see. He's not very accurate and has struggled to stay above 60% completion rates. His passing stats look like college stats in terms of yds and touchdowns. Yes - he runs for a significant # of yds, but he averages just 2 scores more than Sam did in 2023 using his feet. And I think a lot of his rushing yds are off broken plays or because he doesn't look downfield once pressured and leaving the pocket. He's not great in the red zone - his passing TD #'s are quite low by NFL QB standards. He has gotten better over the course of his 3 NFL seasons, and deserves credit for that. If this coaching staff were going to run an RPO offense, he might be worth looking at. But he's not an Air Raid QB by a longshot.

I don't think you should ever trade for a QB whose not demonstrably better than what you already have. I'm not even sure he's better than Sam Howell, certainly not substantially in my opinion.

And another 'general principle' I'm trying to keep in my mind as we plan for this draft. When your team has a ton of needs and holes to fill on it's roster, and you have a bunch of picks, for God's sake, don't make decisions requiring you to give picks up. If anything, move down the draft where you can and still get guys you have targeted in that area.
 
That's the rub. Justin Fields if he were 21 or 22 years old and a rookie might have the time to develop enough that by Year 4 you would know whether to pay him or not.

Since he is going to be at that point after this season and his development is not yet there, you are potentially taking on a big risk.

If you pay him and he's like Daniel Jones then you have a pig in a poke.

If you let him go and trade his rights and he bounces back up a couple of years later with another team then Washington looks like fools.

We already went a ways towards this kind of decision-making with Chase Young, who missed 1.5 seasons with injury.

We had to make a decision on him based upon a rather small sample size AFTER returning from the injury.

In the end though luckily he showed enough on the field for us to know he WASN'T worth a second contract.
 
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