2024 Free Agents - who are we keeping?

[Neophyte]

Kingsbury's offense uses a lot of 3/4 WR sets to spread the field and force the defense to make a choice. We are going to need at least 3 starting caliber WRs because we are going to essentially have 3 starting WRs.

It also means a lot of snaps for guys who play slot - which is why I'm advocating for bringing back both Samuel and Crowder.

Samuel's quality we all know.

Crowder is getting up there in age but he showed last year that he can still get separation almost anytime he wants to and that he still has good hands.

I find the resigning of Kaz Allen today interesting as well since he might be a younger (and cheaper) version of Crowder, capable of working out of the slot and returning punts.

 

[Primus Porcus]

I think it's important to just realize, there's no question the initial board was set by Kyle smith before he left in Jan 2021. Because that process starts during the college football season. Scouts are out watching games, I'm sure Kyle was watching college games and film during the 2020 season to get ready for the 2021 off-season.

There's no question work was done by the scouts and by Kyle Smith before he was fired. And the team owned that work. Also, that work would have been the compellation of all of the other scouts in the building, and if memory serves, most if not all of them were retained.

Do I think Kyle Smith's draft board was the starting point for the 2021 draft? Yes. Do I think the draft board was set in January and didn't change after that based on combine, workouts, other input from scouts, interviews, etc? No. I'm pretty sure it changed. Ron and staff might have been somewhat clueless, but they weren't lazy.

I do think it's important to separate the actual facts from the piling on. And the media is in piling on mode at the moment, so it's a bit difficult.

Fair

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Maybe I’m alone on this but…I view Samuels as an equally valuable player today to Dotson. Last season Samuels was the third most productive offensive player behind Brian Robinson and McLaurin. Jahan is younger and he could potentially surpass Curtis in production, especially if used more like he was in 2022 than 2023.

Samuels is 27 and currently in his prime but seems to be considered old by fans. Terry McLaurin is a year older and is not.

From a production standpoint, sure. But he's going to be an expensive WR3. I think they can find a cheaper, younger, and possibly better version in the draft. If you draft well, you shouldn't need to sign an expensive WR3.

Caveat: Dotson HAS to develop. I can chalk last year to bad juju all around. But if he's not going to be the #2, then you're looking for a #2. I still don't think that's Samuel.

Kingsbury's offense uses a lot of 3/4 WR sets to spread the field and force the defense to make a choice. We are going to need at least 3 starting caliber WRs because we are going to essentially have 3 starting WRs.

It also means a lot of snaps for guys who play slot - which is why I'm advocating for bringing back both Samuel and Crowder.

Samuel's quality we all know.

Crowder is getting up there in age but he showed last year that he can still get separation almost anytime he wants to and that he still has good hands.

I find the resigning of Kaz Allen today interesting as well since he might be a younger (and cheaper) version of Crowder, capable of working out of the slot and returning punts.

One thing to keep in mind, I don't think we know what the offense is going to look like. If you look at the 3 top offensive coaches, Kingsbury, Brian Johnson (passing game coordinator) and Anthony Lynn (Run Game Coordinator), there are some very different styles/philosophies at play.

And both Johnson and Lynn come from running backgrounds, with Johnson in Philly and Lynn most recently from the Shanahan run game tree.

I have a sneaky suspicion the offense might look a lot more Shanahany than Air Raidy. That could be entirely wrong, but it's my hunch. I don't think Kliff is tied to one way of doing things. His offenses evolved significantly while in Arizona. And now that he's had time to reflect on it while not being in it, and with 2 coaches on the staff from different backgrounds, I don't think we know what the offense is going to look like.

 

[Neophyte]

Even the run-heavy Shanahan 49er teams use 3 WR sets nearly 50% of the time.

I'm guessing the reason they don't use that set more is because they are one of the few teams (maybe only?) with a legit FB on the roster that they use like a FB.

 

[Chris]

Cheaper. For sure. Younger? No doubt. Possibly better? Well…of course possibly. 😉

I’m a bird in the hand type though. Especially when you have so few experienced, productive players as this team has. I’m also not convinced that Samuel is WR3 though he should be. To me he is more reliable than Dotson is much more often.

This comes with a cost caveat. I have no feel for what his league value will be established at but if he can be retained at for very near his previous cost I would keep him.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Even the run-heavy Shanahan 49er teams use 3 WR sets nearly 50% of the time.

I'm guessing the reason they don't use that set more is because they are one of the few teams (maybe only?) with a legit FB on the roster that they use like a FB.

Yeah, there's no question they're going to need 3 WRs. I was just commenting that I don't think it's specifically a Kingsbury history thing. I'd be interested to see the Philly breakdown, though. I do wonder if we can find a TE, we see more 2 WR + 2 TE sets instead of the 3 WR + FB set. Unless we sign a FB.

I don't think Samuels is that third guy. I think it's somebody else. I also think they're going to look for a receiver with some size.

Just a hunch. And my hunches are usually wrong, so take that for what it's worth.

 

[burgold]

One other thought about Samuel is that for our purposes, he is no longer a vet. He has no experience in Kingsbury's system. Heck, no one does since no one knows what it will look like. From that perspective, Samuel is not a vet with familiarity and he needs to be judged more on his physical toolkit and how he projects into the system. Now, he has been in the NFL a while so certain skill sets must translate: He knows how to read an NFL defense, he knows most NFL route trees, he knows the guy he'll likely be matched up against in division all of which means he starts further ahead than a rookie, but necessarily that much farther ahead than a NFL vet receiver not currently on this team.

Right now, Kingsbury et al are figuring out who on the roster fits and how to adapt their scheme to make them fit, but for the free agents the fit should be cleaner, surer.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Even the run-heavy Shanahan 49er teams use 3 WR sets nearly 50% of the time.

I'm guessing the reason they don't use that set more is because they are one of the few teams (maybe only?) with a legit FB on the roster that they use like a FB.

Agreed. I was just responding to the Kingsbury's offense tends to be 3/4 wide comment. Which, it might. It might not. It probably will because everybody runs 3 wide a ton.

Don't get me wrong, I like Samuel. I just think he's a luxury we can't afford.

I am in the significant minority here, but I am really worried about the cap space. We have $80m which seems like a lot. But we have half a roster, and a number of the players on that half a roster stink. That 80M is going to go FAST. And if they do what I think they should do and release Leno and Thomas, which gets them another $14M of cap space, well, then you need to sign a starting LT and TE. Which I think they have to do anyway.

So I just don't think 10M+ for a 3rd WR is something we should do right now. And yeah, I get it, we can do what we did last time and have year 1 cap hit ~3M, but then years 2 and 3 were ~13m.

One other thought about Samuel is that for our purposes, he is no longer a vet. He has no experience in Kingsbury's system. Heck, no one does since no one knows what it will look like. From that perspective, Samuel is not a vet with familiarity and he needs to be judged more on his physical toolkit and how he projects into the system. Now, he has been in the NFL a while so certain skill sets must translate: He knows how to read an NFL defense, he knows most NFL route trees, he knows the guy he'll likely be matched up against in division all of which means he starts further ahead than a rookie, but necessarily that much farther ahead than a NFL vet receiver not currently on this team.

Right now, Kingsbury et al are figuring out who on the roster fits and how to adapt their scheme to make them fit, but for the free agents the fit should be cleaner, surer.

I'd just "yes and" this to say, they not only need to figure out who fits and how to adapt their scheme, but they also need to figure out how to sign 20 players under the cap, and how to allocate resources to do it. They will draft 7-10 guys, but apart from 2-3 of the early picks, you can't count on any of them being anything other than special teams contributors.

And they probably need 15 new starters on offense/defense. Yeesh.

 

[Neophyte]

I don't think you are in the minority here, Voice. I think we are all aware of the cap space vs current roster size issues.

I don't know that I would say most of us are worried about but we are definitely aware. And I think most of us find the talk of all the big-ticket free agents coming here to be off base for exactly that reason.

Will Peters have a hard time assembling a roster here because of it? No.

Will it be full of big-name Free Agents with big price tags? Also no.

This management group has said repeatedly that they believe in patience and building through the draft. And I believe them.

I think we will see smart FA acquisitions - guys with upside that this group thinks can be coached up. I doubt we see many, if any, of this year's FA headliners come into this team.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I don't think you are in the minority here, Voice. I think we are all aware of the cap space vs current roster size issues.

I don't know that I would say most of us are worried about but we are definitely aware. And I think most of us find the talk of all the big-ticket free agents coming here to be off base for exactly that reason.

Will Peters have a hard time assembling a roster here because of it? No.

Will it be full of big-name Free Agents with big price tags? Also no.

This management group has said repeatedly that they believe in patience and building through the draft. And I believe them.

I think we will see smart FA acquisitions - guys with upside that this group thinks can be coached up. I doubt we see many, if any, of this year's FA headliners come into this team.

Ok, fair.

However, because of the cap space vs. roster size, that's why I think Samuel is a luxury that's not worth spending on.

I think they need to go out and get 5 definite starters:

1. OL - Preferably left tackle, but looking at the list of available FA tackles, I'm not sure there is one to get
2. TE
3. DE
4. LB
5. CB ** This could be a short-term re-signing of Fuller if the scheme fit is right. Otherwise, they need one from outside.

I get "building through the draft" but they're only going to end up with 7-10 draft picks and they need 25 players. So by necessity they're going to have to be somewhat active in FA, at least in the middle tier. But NOT the bargain bin tier we've been shopping in since 2010.

They're going to have to spend some money on those positions. I don't think that leaves money for a WR3. That's just my opinion. I would prefer to throw picks/low-end prospects at it and see if they find somebody than pay $10M+/Year.

Most likely, they will draft a QB and at least 1 OL and 1 DL in the first 3 rounds who would be penciled in as starters.

 

[burgold]

Weirdly, I think our short term o line reconstruction hinges on Wylie. If Peters and the coaches think he can slide in at guard and if Wylie is willing to do so, then we at least have our two guard positions set at least for 2024. That means we still need both tackles and a center though we might be able to survive with Leno for one more year.

I mean it'd be best if we could blow up the entire line and replace both tackles, center, and a guard, but I'm not sure if that can be done in one offseason. If we have Leno, Cosmi, (Rookie/Free Agent/Stromberg?) Wylie, (Rookie) maybe that line can hold up. On the other hand, I wouldn't mind, trade down and draft best left tackle in the draft, grab another tackle, and a center in the draft and snag a center in free agency.

 

[Neophyte]

The issue with Wylie is he has only played on the right side - either at G or T.

Cosmi, at RG, was our hands-down best player last year.

Can you move one of them? Sure, but neither will be as effective on left side.

 

[burgold]

Well, so much for that then. I hoped he might be serviceable to good if we could move him back to guard.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Weirdly, I think our short term o line reconstruction hinges on Wylie. If Peters and the coaches think he can slide in at guard and if Wylie is willing to do so, then we at least have our two guard positions set at least for 2024. That means we still need both tackles and a center though we might be able to survive with Leno for one more year.

I mean it'd be best if we could blow up the entire line and replace both tackles, center, and a guard, but I'm not sure if that can be done in one offseason. If we have Leno, Cosmi, (Rookie/Free Agent/Stromberg?) Wylie, (Rookie) maybe that line can hold up. On the other hand, I wouldn't mind, trade down and draft best left tackle in the draft, grab another tackle, and a center in the draft and snag a center in free agency.

My guess is we are going to somehow find a starting LT in FA. I doubt they keep Leno. He's just "ok" and he's now expensive, and they get $10m savings by cutting him.

I'd be absolutely shocked if they don't draft 2-3 OL in this draft. Probably guards, but maybe a RT also.

Another intriguing player is Stromberg, aka Stromboli. Ron totally screwed up by drafting him in the 3rd round to be the 3rd string center. But he actually had some good reviews coming out, and a lot of people liked him. Can you count on him as a solution? No. But he is there, and he might have talent.

At the end of the off-season, I could see an OL looking like: FA LT - Draft Pick - Stromberg - Cosmi - Draft Pick. Assuming Stromberg can play.

I waffle on what to do with Wylie. They could cut him, but they save nothing. They could keep him, but he's not really that good. Maybe they could try him at RG and then cut him if he can't play?

I wouldn't touch Cosmi at RG. Ron flipped him all over the place. Just let him play one position, where he's good.

They do also have that other tackle they drafted, who immediately went on IR. I'm not sure if he's any good, but he's at least a guy who's there.

 

[Chris]

For your viewing pleasure- FA Left Tackles

and FA Right Tackles

 

[Bulldog]

The key in free agency is the right fit.

We need veteran leaders not guys that come in, get paid and then are half assing it on the field with a self-satisfied grin.

No moody prima donas like Case Young.

 

[Bulldog]

For your viewing pleasure- FA Left Tackles

View attachment 7358

and FA Right Tackles

View attachment 7359

This is a deep draft for tackles, I don’t expect a major signing here.

Of course if we trade down perhaps we get a starting player back in the package?

 

[Boone]

I love all of you guys, but I think there's a lack of appreciation for Samuel in this fanbase. He's every bit as good as Terry McLaurin (their #'s are very very close) and imho Samuel is actually much more dynamic than Terry is. Dotson had a very good rookie year and has shown promise but he is not presently reliable enough to compare to the top two guys. We talk like Samuel is 32, not 27. He is in the prime of his career. Talking about him as a 'third' WR when he has consistently pushed McLaurin for 'best on this squad' honors just seems off to me. He doesn't talk a lot like McLaurin does but he is every bit the the talent. He should be the first guy to get a new contract and if we don't, someone else will snatch him up in a millisecond.

 

[Chris]

 

[Neophyte]

I love all of you guys, but I think there's a lack of appreciation for Samuel in this fanbase. He's every bit as good as Terry McLaurin (their #'s are very very close) and imho Samuel is actually much more dynamic than Terry is. Dotson had a very good rookie year and has shown promise but he is not presently reliable enough to compare to the top two guys. We talk like Samuel is 32, not 27. He is in the prime of his career. Talking about him as a 'third' WR when he has consistently pushed McLaurin for 'best on this squad' honors just seems off to me. He doesn't talk a lot like McLaurin does but he is every bit the the talent. He should be the first guy to get a new contract and if we don't, someone else will snatch him up in a millisecond.

I think it all depends on what he wants. We can't afford two WRs on the money that Terry is making now.